What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[HurricaneFanatic]

The probability is 0 %

Back to topic eh? Lol

 

[Confused Turnip]

I see it now. If Gretzky beat Pele (20 years senior) this easy than it is a definite proof. I give up.

How about the prime SRL in the other lane, who was renowned for his speed?

 

[Sentinel]

Kurri had one 100 point season and no 50 goal seasons after Gretzky left Edmonton. Is that HOF worthy? Maybe??

Of course, you take away his prime and he is not HHOF worthy. Does this mean you don't just remove Gretzky, but you remove Kurri from Kurri as well?

Coffey’s probably HOF worthy either way, but I think his career would have been more comparable to Larry Murphy’s if you took away the insane numbers he put up in Edmonton.

Larry Murphy was an elite hockey player. Nothing to sneeze at.

 

[robsenz]

I hope OV retires when it feels right instead of becoming Jagr to beat that record.
I do fear the latter though. That would be sad.

Imagine him breaking the record at 63 in his 3,569 game in the league

 

[lottster14]

12.5%

 

[Confused Turnip]

Imagine him breaking the record at 63 in his 3,569 game in the league

Great highlight really though, him napping alongside the net as the puck bounces in off his helmet.

 

[McVespa99]

I still think he has a good chance. He is so strong and it has always been his shot that defines him. I dont see his shot getting worse with age.

 

[hockey4sale]

Ovie can do it but he has to stay healthy and willing to play for mother 5years

 

[VVP]

I personally think he can't do it anymore. We are still very far away from post covid normal. Ovi lost too much time to lockouts and covid lockdown unfortunately. Waynes record will never be broken.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

He would score 80+, and you cannot prove otherwise. You can only measure Ovechkin against Sakic and Sakic against Gretzky. And we know where Gretzky was wrt Sakic.

Gretzky in a time machine, with better equipment, better sticks, no red line, no "Gretzky rule," no Semenko on his wing, and goalies who drop to their knees as soon as forward enters the zone, would set the league on fire.

If you think Gretzky would score 80+ goals in the modern NHL then lol and we're done here. He has zero chance of doing this. Ovechkin is AT WORST on par with Gretzky as a goal scorer and if he's only gone over 60 once Gretzky doesn't have a chance. He couldn't score historically as prolifically as Ovi, wouldn't shoot as hard or as accurate even with the new stick tech, he absolutely would not be as fast and he wouldn't be able to stay on the puck as well as a prime Ovechkin who is an absolute beast with a massive size advantage.

Gretzky would still contend and win a ton of Art Ross's but goals would see a significant drop off. Likely a low to mid 30 goal scorer with 80-90 assists per season and rising as scoring has risen the last few years.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

I think one fact people overlook is Gretzky's international career, where competition was closer to today's NHL, then to NHL 30+ years ago. Gretzky scored 57 points (17 goals and 40 assists) in 31 games of Canada's cup. He had just 3 goals in 1987 9-game Canada cup. And those games were not all against the USSR. Therefore, looking at those assists, it is easy to see why he is considered to be one of the smartest players to ever play the game, but when it comes to scoring goals, he would not dominate the game in today's NHL, just like he did not dominate it on the international level (goal scoring wise).

Put better than I could have.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

Obviously there are differences between eras, but as always, they’re way overblown when discussing the elite talents of any time period, particularly when so many of these players’ careers overlapped.

People are so hung up trying to convince others that Gretzky wouldn’t torch the league today when during the 2015-2016 season (McDavid’s rookie year), Jagr at age 43 (he turned 44 about 2/3 of the way through the season) potted 27 goals on 143 shots (18.9 shooting percentage) and put up 66 points in 79 games and led Florida in scoring and was second in goals.

He had 10 goals and 16 assists for 26 points in 25 games after the game on his 44th birthday that season. 44 year old Jagr actually played better down the stretch than earlier in the season with fresher legs.

And I’m supposed to believe that a 22 year old Gretzky couldn’t pot at least 40 goals in today’s game.

The game has not advanced to the degree that others have been brainwashed into believing.

Yes it has. No professional team sport has changed more than the NHL unless we go back to the 50's in the NBA and compare it to today. From the influx of international talent, the speed and size, the equipment and goaltending capabilities, it's changed DRASTICALLY and I think you have to be crazy to not acknowledge this. Watching a game from the early 80's is just night and day, you wouldn't have the time to get those shots off in the league now let alone score on them.

So no, he could not score at least 40 per season. Gretzky put up most of his goals against arguably the worst era of goaltending in league history and factually the highest scoring era in league history and he did it surrounded by Hall of Fame talent. If you honestly believe scoring was higher simple because players were just better than eh oh el. At the advent of improved goaltending, larger equipment and the butterfly his best goal scoring years were done. I'd argue that 40% of the goals Gretzky scored would be saved in the modern NHL and even more he wouldn't have gotten the shot off because there's less space. He isn't big enough, fast enough, or shoot hard enough to put up the numbers today based on everything we saw.

To propose that Wayne Gretzky would be better suited than Alexander Ovechkin to excel at scoring goals in the modern NHL is ludicrous. This has no bearing on him being an MVP caliber player because he would be, but his numbers would drop across the board and the biggest drop would be in his goal scoring. 40ish would be his ceiling over the past 15 years and based on his trajectory, he'd have a large drop off as he progressed.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

Lots of disrespect for the Great One in this topic. In today's game he wouldn't have been as small as he was then. He would have adapted to the times and the game.

That means his shot would have been even better today and he would have also been much stronger. He would have taken advantage of the whippy sticks and modern health training advances.

Ask yourself this. If it was so easy to score 894 goals, why isn't Ovechkin also chasing 10 guys ahead of Gretzky?

I love Ovie but at the same time I grew up watching Gretzky.

I've never seen a player like Gretzky ever since.

I grew up watching Gretzky as well and was born and raised in his hometown, his game would not translate goal scoring wise. He's still be the best and contend every year for the Art Ross, his IQ would be unparalleled but goal scoring is just much, much harder and defensemen are infinitely better. This isn't disrespectful, it's just the truth and no game is as blind to nostalgia as the NHL is.

 

[Sentinel]

If you think Gretzky would score 80+ goals in the modern NHL then lol and we're done here. He has zero chance of doing this. Ovechkin is AT WORST on par with Gretzky as a goal scorer and if he's only gone over 60 once Gretzky doesn't have a chance. He couldn't score in as many ways as Ovi historically, wouldn't shoot as hard or as accurate even with the new stick tech, he absolutely would not be as fast and he wouldn't be able to stay on the puck as well as a prime Ovechkin.

He'd be amongst the leaders points wise every year, but he would not be one of the 5 best goal scorers in the modern era. He doesn't have the toolset.

A bunch of speculation from you, and yes, we are done. LOL indeed.

Again: if ancient Jagr could be one of NHL leaders in goals a few years ago and he never came close to Gretzky's totals, than Gretzky at half his age would dwarf the competition in goals. Including Ovechkin.

 

[chauron]

Yes it has. No professional team sport has changed more than the NHL unless we go back to the 50's in the NBA and compare it to today. From the influx of international talent, the speed and size, the equipment and goaltending capabilities, it's changed DRASTICALLY and I think you have to be crazy to not acknowledge this. Watching a game from the early 80's is just night and day, you wouldn't have the time to get those shots off in the league now let alone score on them.

So no, he could not score at least 40 per season. Gretzky put up most of his goals against arguably the worst era of goaltending in league history and factually the highest scoring era in league history and he did it surrounded by Hall of Fame talent. If you honestly believe scoring was higher simple because players were just better than eh oh el. At the advent of improved goaltending, larger equipment and the butterfly his best goal scoring years were done. I'd argue that 40% of the goals Gretzky scored would be saved in the modern NHL and even more he wouldn't have gotten the shot off because there's less space. He isn't big enough, fast enough, or shoot hard enough to put up the numbers today based on everything we saw.

To propose that Wayne Gretzky would be better suited than Alexander Ovechkin to excel at scoring goals in the modern NHL is ludicrous. This has no bearing on him being an MVP caliber player because he would be, but his numbers would drop across the board and the biggest drop would be in his goal scoring. 40ish would be his ceiling over the past 15 years and based on his trajectory, he'd have a large drop off as he progressed.

Kind of fun to speculate but we will never know, no matter how many simulations are made we can only estimate and the margin of error is so huge it’s impossible to say anything. Therefore we should close it and say it was a different era.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

A bunch of speculation from you, and yes, we are done. LOL indeed.

Again: if ancient Jagr could be one of NHL leaders in goals a few years ago and he never came close to Gretzky's totals, than Gretzky at half his age would dwarf the competition in goals. Including Ovechkin.

Dude that's just an embarrassing take and Jagr at an advanced age could still use his size to not only shield the puck but go to spaces Gretzky never could on the ice. He was also not at the top of the league goal scoring wise a few years ago, no clue where you're getting this and highest total he got was 27 with the Panthers.

Again, Gretzky was not scoring goals in large sums in the later half of his career, he was completely front loaded, his goal scoring didn't have Jagr's longevity let alone Alexander Ovechkin's. Ovechkin is the better goal scorer and he doesn't have to hit an inflated total garnered in the league's highest scoring era to prove that.

 

[Hatfield]

Of course, you take away his prime and he is not HHOF worthy. Does this mean you don't just remove Gretzky, but you remove Kurri from Kurri as well?

Larry Murphy was an elite hockey player. Nothing to sneeze at.

Jari Kurri without Gretzky is a sub-500 goal scorer with 1 Cup. That’s all I’m saying.

No, Larry was nothing to sneeze at.

 

[Sentinel]

Jari Kurri without Gretzky is a sub-500 goal scorer with 1 Cup. That’s all I’m saying.

How do you know how many goals would Kurri score without Gretzky? His GPG average in the last Gretzky season was 0.53 and in the first post-Gretzky season was 0.58. Almost the same. It's not unreasonable to think that he scores over 400 goals in the 80s without Gretzky and then picks up another 100 after.

 

[Thenameless]

He still has a chance if:

1. He is really hell bent on breaking it, AND
2. If the Capitals (or whatever team he's playing for) support him in his quest, even if it hurts the team

 

[Sentinel]

Dude that's just an embarrassing take and Jagr at an advanced age could still use his size to not only shield the puck but go to spaces Gretzky never could on the ice. He was also not at the top of the league goal scoring wise a few years ago, no clue where you're getting this and highest total he got was 27 with the Panthers.

Again, Gretzky was not scoring goals in large sums in the later half of his career, he was completely front loaded, his goal scoring didn't have Jagr's longevity let alone Alexander Ovechkin's. Ovechkin is the better goal scorer and he doesn't have to hit an inflated total garnered in the league's highest scoring era to prove that.

It doesn't matter if he was frontloaded. It has nothing to do with longevity. But in his early 20s, he could comfortably score over 80 goals per season more than once in today's NHL for all the reasons I listed. Bottomline: we'll never know. I'm done here.

 

[Leafs1991]

No, modern equipment, 80s training. Above-average player.

You do realize that the equipment only helps so much? That without the training players aren't as strong and fast?

 

[Leafs1991]

I see it now. If Gretzky beat Pele (20 years senior) this easy than it is a definite proof. I give up.

Exactly, a 100m sprint is very telling apparently lol

 

[Madifer]

Im almost certain that OV will break that record. The Washington franchise needs it as well and will do all it can to assist OV.

It could take 7 more years though.

 

[Thenameless]

Ovechkin is the better goal scorer and he doesn't have to hit an inflated total garnered in the league's highest scoring era to prove that.

Ovechkin has concentrated mainly on scoring goals throughout his career. After his 84-85 season, Gretzky said he wanted to concentrate more on assists, particularly when he set the ridiculous mark of 163 assists in the 85-86 season. He was still a young man when he went in this direction. If it was the other way around, and Gretzky had to chase down an Ovechkin all-time goal total, I could see Gretzky going over 1,000 if that's all he wanted to do.

And I'm a Lemieux fan that thinks Lemieux is the best goal scorer of all time.

 

[Leafs1991]

A bunch of speculation from you, and yes, we are done. LOL indeed.

Again: if ancient Jagr could be one of NHL leaders in goals a few years ago and he never came close to Gretzky's totals, than Gretzky at half his age would dwarf the competition in goals. Including Ovechkin.

Just like what you say is a bunch of speculation too.