What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now? (Part 2)

[txpd]

Your numbers doesnt add up.. averages 40 i. what timespan??

His year now, he thought he was gonzo, but now after really tearing it up, hes at it again. Amazing!

So if I just take a shot in the dark, next years would be like

Ovie 36 46 goals
Ovie 37 42 goals
Ovie 38 42 goals
Ovie 39 38 goals

And up this season, (and what could this be, maybe 736?) he breaks it. And even beyond the 900sphere. Being the only member in that club.

But that takes no more Corona, a healthy Ovie, and no rapid declining.

The numbers dont add because I said 5 seasons and you are showing 4

 

[JasonRoseEh]

When it comes down to top ten of all times, I believe all around play is important. Marleau has the most games ever, who in their right mind would place him amongst even top 100? Ovie has struggled to be a ppg player when Crosby hasn't. Ovie only has two finishes in the top five in the past ten years, and I think he has missed top ten seven times during that time. So of I'm not mistaken, he been outside the top ten scorers 8 out of 16 seasons.

If he fails to be within the top ten scorers half of the seasons during his prime, should he really be in the top ten players of all time? He's a winger, he has no defensive awareness, he has a history of failed play off runs.

Are nine rockets enough? I honestly don't think so. But add the goal scoring record, and we have a case. So we'll see. He's two goals closer after tonight at least.

Fun fact, Ovechkin has led his team in points more than Crosby has. Take that for what it's worth.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

Didn’t get any closer today versus the Bruins, and was minus-4 to boot.

Good

 

[SwedishFire]

The numbers dont add because I said 5 seasons and you are showing 4

you aint said any total number. thats the hatch

 

[txpd]

you aint said any total number. thats the hatch

Total number of what? Hatch to wear?

 

[Sinistril]

I'm not hoping anything. Someone said it would be a "breeze" for Ovie to get the record and used Selanne's career as an example. I don't think it's a breeze to score another 165 goals from 36 and up. Laine is 23 (read absolute prime), has five seasons in the NHL, and he hasn't reached that number as a total yet.

One day father time will catch up with Ovie. And whether he gets the record or not depends on when that happens. The statistical probability that "the next season will be the one" increases exponentially with age obviously.

Yeah but Ovie isn't addicted to Fortnite

 

[maacoshark]

The 3 shortened seasons and one complete season missed are definitely going to hurt his chances. He would likely be at 800 plus by now.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

The 3 shortened seasons and one complete season missed are definitely going to hurt his chances. He would likely be at 800 plus by now.

We don't know that. Maybe the time off has extended him? I mean, it is quite possible, but maybe having that time off kept him from wearing out/breaking down?

 

[filinski77]

We don't know that. Maybe the time off has extended him? I mean, it is quite possible, but maybe having that time off kept him from wearing out/breaking down?

Possibly, but I feel like at worst it's still a negative impact for him.

I see what you mean, because playing a full season hurts the body and makes it harder to maintain pace for sure.

	G/GP	Games Missed	Goals projected
04/05			25
12/13	0.666666667	34	23
19/20	0.705882353	13	9
20/21	0.571428571	26	15
			72

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Like the 24 'projected' goals that he missed from the last 2 COVID seasons. Yeah he's old, maybe playing the extra 39 games played hinders him a little bit, but I'm fairly certain it wouldn't be enough to lower his goal totals by 24 from those seasons. Yes it sucks, and even if realistically, all these lockouts/covid breaks only took away lets say 35 goals from Ovi (a very conservative number that assumes playing those extra games only helps increase his goals at 50% of his pace - and only gives him 25 in his rookie year), that 35 goals could be a huge factor in his age 39+ seasons.

 

[kevsh]

My feeling is that outside of serious injury derailing him and/or his scoring/overall play has dropped off to a point he clearly isn't going to do it, Ovi's not going to retire until he catches Wayne.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

Possibly, but I feel like at worst it's still a negative impact for him.

I see what you mean, because playing a full season hurts the body and makes it harder to maintain pace for sure.

	G/GP	Games Missed	Goals projected
04/05			25
12/13	0.666666667	34	23
19/20	0.705882353	13	9
20/21	0.571428571	26	15
			72

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Like the 24 'projected' goals that he missed from the last 2 COVID seasons. Yeah he's old, maybe playing the extra 39 games played hinders him a little bit, but I'm fairly certain it wouldn't be enough to lower his goal totals by 24 from those seasons. Yes it sucks, and even if realistically, all these lockouts/covid breaks only took away lets say 35 goals from Ovi (a very conservative number that assumes playing those extra games only helps increase his goals at 50% of his pace - and only gives him 25 in his rookie year), that 35 goals could be a huge factor in his age 39+ seasons.

Perhaps, i guess we'll never know. But maybe he'll break it anyway and make it a moot point? haha

 

[Beukeboom]

Possibly, but I feel like at worst it's still a negative impact for him.

I see what you mean, because playing a full season hurts the body and makes it harder to maintain pace for sure.

	G/GP	Games Missed	Goals projected
04/05			25
12/13	0.666666667	34	23
19/20	0.705882353	13	9
20/21	0.571428571	26	15
			72

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Like the 24 'projected' goals that he missed from the last 2 COVID seasons. Yeah he's old, maybe playing the extra 39 games played hinders him a little bit, but I'm fairly certain it wouldn't be enough to lower his goal totals by 24 from those seasons. Yes it sucks, and even if realistically, all these lockouts/covid breaks only took away lets say 35 goals from Ovi (a very conservative number that assumes playing those extra games only helps increase his goals at 50% of his pace - and only gives him 25 in his rookie year), that 35 goals could be a huge factor in his age 39+ seasons.

Missing seasons due to covid and lockouts is definitely unfortunate. Sometimes a shortened season rejuvenates a player for sure, sometimes it's just goals lost. Hard to say which of course. But it is what it is. Let's not forget Wayne missed games due to shorter seasons and a lockout as well. An extra twenty four games during his prime would probably have added 15-20 goals, plus another ten during the lockout in 94-95? So we can do this forever.

One factor no one seems to bring forward, is that it probably a lot easier to chase a record, rather than padding one. Having that extra motivation behind every goal might do wonders. Gretzky's goal scoring was already on his way down after the Suter hit, but it plummeted after breaking Howe's record. Was that a factor? Who knows.

I guess my point is that either Ovie breaks the record or he doesn't. I just hope we don't have to deal with more "if" mathematics if he ends up short.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

Still 165 away.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

Will likely be 165 at the start of 2021-22 season.

 

[BallardEra]

If Ovie hits 50 goals this season that takes him to 780.

That means he would need to average 28.5 goals a season over the last 4 years of his contract to tie Gretzky at 894.

 

[txpd]

If Ovechkin is at 50 again this season, it makes it really hard to believe he wont break the record. He vaporize it. If he scores 50 this season, I would have him penciled in for 50 the next season. I wont take him down as a favorite for 50 and the Rocket until he proves he cant do it anymore and we are not close to that right now.

I would suggest now that he has a shot at 1000 goals.

 

[Plural]

Has there ever been a more prolific goal scorer that was so boring. Early on in his career he use to score highlight reel goals. Now I watch the highlights and every goal is the same. He might end up with the most goals all time but there will be ten plus players with better highlights

At goal-scoring? Yeah, no. There absolutely will not be 10+ scorers with more exciting goal-scoring highlights.

 

[Perennial]

Unless he suffers a serious injury, I don't think there's any doubt he'll break the record for the simple fact the Caps will keep signing him to 1 year deals until he does...

He'll be able to score 20+ goals a season as a powerplay specialist who just takes one-timers all shift

I can't imagine he'll get to 850+ career goals and then hang 'em up with that record within striking distance

 

[txpd]

Unless he suffers a serious injury, I don't think there's any doubt he'll break the record for the simple fact the Caps will keep signing him to 1 year deals until he does...

He'll be able to score 20+ goals a season as a powerplay specialist who just takes one-timers all shift

I can't imagine he'll get to 850+ career goals and then hang 'em up with that record within striking distance

He has a 5 year contract now. Why would he need 1 year contracts?

 

[Perennial]

He has a 5 year contract now. Why would he need 1 year contracts?

I'm talking about after his contract is up, if he hasn't broken the record, he'll keep getting 1 year deals until he does...

 

[BallardEra]

I think the ideal plan for Ovechkin is to break the record in year 4 of his contract. Then before year 5 begins he announces his retirement and every city he visits gets to show their appreciation for him.

 

[txpd]

I'm talking about after his contract is up, if he hasn't broken the record, he'll keep getting 1 year deals until he does...

Thats likely true watching the level of play he has provided this season, I dont think it will take more than the current contract

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The 3 shortened seasons and one complete season missed are definitely going to hurt his chances. He would likely be at 800 plus by now.

It's going to make him doing it all the more impressive.

 

[Sentinel]

Fun fact, Ovechkin has led his team in points more than Crosby has. Take that for what it's worth.

Ovechkin never had anybody close to Malkin in his entire tenure in the league. It made him the undisputed leader of his team... while giving him fewer Cups than Crosby.

 

[SENStastic]

Definitely over 50% at this point, its more likely he surpasses Gretzky's record than not. Only a serious career ending or limiting injury would stop him from doing so. Barring that, he should break the scoring record before hanging them up, it's almost a certainty. Dude is an absolute machine, even father time doesn't want to mess with him.