What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now? (Part 2)
- Thread starter Big Phil
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I would be absolutely shocked if he doesn't do it. Think the only thing standing in his way is a career-ending injury, but this guy doesn't get injured.
txpd
Registered User
I dont think you are giving Backstrom near as much cred as he has earned. Since Backstrom came into the league in 2007-08 Crosby and Malkin have 2122 points combined and Ovechkin and Backstrom have 2117. The difference is that Malkin had seasons where Crosby was missing and Malkin led the team. Ovechkin doesn't miss games
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BallardEra
Leafs&Caps Since 1982™
Here is what Selanne did in his age 36-40 seasons:
36 - 48 goals in 82 games
37 - 12 goals in 26 games
38 - 27 goals in 65 games
39 - 27 goals in 54 games
40 - 31 goals in 73 games
That’s a total of 145 goals with some significant time lost in his age 37 season because he started playing in February of 2008.
If we take those 145 goals and add them to the 730 Ovechkin had at the start of this season it gives him 875.
I think it’s fair to say that if Ovechkin doesn’t miss any significant time to injuries then it’s just a matter of when for him hitting 895.
36 - 48 goals in 82 games
37 - 12 goals in 26 games
38 - 27 goals in 65 games
39 - 27 goals in 54 games
40 - 31 goals in 73 games
That’s a total of 145 goals with some significant time lost in his age 37 season because he started playing in February of 2008.
If we take those 145 goals and add them to the 730 Ovechkin had at the start of this season it gives him 875.
I think it’s fair to say that if Ovechkin doesn’t miss any significant time to injuries then it’s just a matter of when for him hitting 895.
BallardEra
Leafs&Caps Since 1982™
Brett Hull as another comparable. Keep in mind that Hull missed his age 40 season to the lock-out. He came back at age 41 or 5 games and called it a career.
36 - 39 goals in 79 games
37 - 30 goals in 82 games
38 - 37 goals in 82 games
39 - 25 goals in 81 games
40 - 20 goals (assuming he played)
That’s 151 goals. Add 730 to 151 and you arrive at 881 goals. Very similar to the Selanne totals from above.
Howe had 166 goals and Bucyk had 168 goals for their combined age 36-40 seasons.
If Ovie matches that then you’re looking at 896 and 898 career goals total.
36 - 39 goals in 79 games
37 - 30 goals in 82 games
38 - 37 goals in 82 games
39 - 25 goals in 81 games
40 - 20 goals (assuming he played)
That’s 151 goals. Add 730 to 151 and you arrive at 881 goals. Very similar to the Selanne totals from above.
Howe had 166 goals and Bucyk had 168 goals for their combined age 36-40 seasons.
If Ovie matches that then you’re looking at 896 and 898 career goals total.
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Sentinel
Registered User
txpd
Registered User
I think it is axiomatic. Its also true that Nicklas Backstrom has been criminally underrated largely because he doesn't the attention. During his career he leads the NHL in assists and has nearly 100 more than Malkin. He is the best defensive player of the 4 of them.
Even I think it's just a matter of time at this point, but you never know until you know. 155 goals is still a lot. And while he hasn't really been injured, age and mileage makes it easier now.
BallardEra
Leafs&Caps Since 1982™
If he gets to 50 this season that 155 becomes 114.
114 over the last 4 years of his contract doesn’t really seem like a lot especially considering that people from 3-4 years were saying NO WAY when he had 33 goals after the 2016-17 season.
At that point he was 336 goals behind Gretzky.
Yeah if he gets to 50 this year, it's all but over.
Really is amazing, I thought he was slowing down during his 33 goal season.
Sentinel
Registered User
His defensive play doesn't matter when comparing points. And he would get plenty of attention, were he a better offensive player. Malkin did not get overshadowed by Crosby and Toews by Kane.
Dude's got 980 points in 1011 games. Hard to say that almost a point per game over a 1000 game sample size isn't . He doesn't get attention because he doesn't want it. He actively tells the team/owners not to push him for any of the awards or all star games because he doesn't want the attention. He blows Toews out of the water easily, and Kane only has like 100 points on him while being far inferior defensively.
txpd
Registered User
Toews? You cant seriously be comparing Backstrom to Toews? The guy leads the entire league, which means Crosby, during his career in assists and he needs to be better?
dogbazinho
Registered User
BallardEra
Leafs&Caps Since 1982™
I think we might only see the wheelchair if he decides he wants to hit quadruple digits.
AhosDatsyukian
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- Sep 25, 2020
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Barring major injury or decision to retire relatively early I think he's guaranteed to hit it. I also think he's got a shot at 1000 goals if he doesn't leave for the KHL or retire after the season he breaks the record during, though it seems likely that he'll be done with the NHL after breaking Gretzky's record.
Given his start to this season and extension he just signed, I can’t see him finishing with less than 900.
JasonRoseEh
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- Oct 23, 2018
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No, the difference is Malkin is an immensely superior player who has always been capable of carrying his own line and team. I love Backstrom, was underrated for years but his production falls off a cliff on lines that don't have Ovechkin where as Ovechkin has always produced with anyone on his line. That doesn't mean Backstrom hasn't helped Ovi throughtout their careers, but Backstrom is very much a complimentary player were as Ovechkin and Crosby are generational with Malkin being just a tier below.
Just think about it when it's last 10-30 goals to record. Every arena he scores going to be buzzing. And everybody definitely count them loud and clear. That is exciting thing to wait.
tarheelhockey
Offside Review Specialist
I don't expect this to actually happen, but if it did... under this context... "legendary" isn't a strong enough word. That would be way up there in terms of unforgettable single-season runs.
Oleksiak
Registered User
Why? He's an exciting player who makes the game fun, and his consistency is second to none.
KoozNetsOff 92
Hala Madrid
- Apr 6, 2016
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Gretzky is the GOAT by a mile and has like 500 other records, nothing is going to change in regards to how he's viewed.
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