What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now? (Part 2)

[HurricaneFanatic]

Honestly, even with a decline, he can still probably compile to that number.

That slap shot will probably still be there even if speed and quickness declines.

A few 5-on-5 plays, a few deflections, the rest just smashing slap shots from the circle.

His speed and quickness has already declined. The slap shot has not.

 

[Aliceanna]

Given that the "he shoots so much, that's why he scores so much" thing came up again, I thought I'd look at all-time shots leaders.

Ray Bourque is #1 with about 500 more shots in his career (exactly 500 before today's game). Ray Bourque is #91 on the all-time goal-scoring list. He had a career shooting percentage of 6.6.

Jagr is 3rd in shots right behind Ovi with 5637. Jagr is #3 on the all-time goals list with 766. That's a lifetime shooting percentage of 13.6.

Marcel Dionne is in 4th for all-time shots and 5th for all-time goals (he'll be 6th after Ovi scores 2 more goals). His lifetime shooting percentage is 13.8.

Gordie Howe had a career NHL shooting pct of 10.1.
Gretzky had a ridiculous 17.5.
Brett Hull was at 15.2.

Ovi's lifetime shooting pct is currently 12.8, but it has been consistently high over the past several season (for this season, it's at 14.2, last season, it was 15.4, the season before 15.1).

Ovi is not a terribly inaccurate shooter.

 

[dukeofjive]

He will probably fall short of the number 1 spot, but i have no problem when people say he is the best goal scorer in hockey history. I have been lucky to see so many great goal scorer in my life, it goes from bossy and lafleur to ovy and now mathews, love this game we call hockey.

 

[Beukeboom]

If he does what Selanne did from his age 36 season and on it will be a breeze for him.

Simply comes down to health and desire for Ovechkin.

A breeze is a bit of a stretch? Selanne had 190 goals over eight seasons? Ovie is certainly more of a tank, but his weight and style of play probably doesn't favor longevity in the long run. Hence I find another eight seasons to be exceedingly unlikely.

Edit: I am aware Selanne battled injuries, but that is something I'd bet goes hand in hand with being closer to 40. So like you say. It comes down to health and will.

 

[RVACapsFan]

Let’s say he keeps up his pace for this season and finishes with 30; that’s 736.

I think he’ll sign a 4-year deal (or 1 year + 3-year deal) so that has contract expiration aligns with Backstrom’s. I’ll give him 35/year for the next 3 years + 25 in year 4: that puts him at 866; 28 goals short of Gretzky. Have to think he’d stick around another year or two on the 3rd line + power play to try and break it.

Will obviously depend on his health but man he hasn’t showed much sign of slowing down in terms of goal-scoring prowess.

 

[Beukeboom]

Its really the same old argument. Do you value a goal the same as an assist? Ovechkin has more goals than assists because his team is set up for that. When there is 1 50 goal scorer and 20 50 assist scorers, I see one thing as more difficult than the other. Have you ever asked yourself how a player with so many shots on goal doesnt pile up assists from teammates scoring his rebounds?

When it comes down to top ten of all times, I believe all around play is important. Marleau has the most games ever, who in their right mind would place him amongst even top 100? Ovie has struggled to be a ppg player when Crosby hasn't. Ovie only has two finishes in the top five in the past ten years, and I think he has missed top ten seven times during that time. So of I'm not mistaken, he been outside the top ten scorers 8 out of 16 seasons.

If he fails to be within the top ten scorers half of the seasons during his prime, should he really be in the top ten players of all time? He's a winger, he has no defensive awareness, he has a history of failed play off runs.

Are nine rockets enough? I honestly don't think so. But add the goal scoring record, and we have a case. So we'll see. He's two goals closer after tonight at least.

 

[RVACapsFan]

When it comes down to top ten of all times, I believe all around play is important. Marleau has the most games ever, who in their right mind would place him amongst even top 100? Ovie has struggled to be a ppg player when Crosby hasn't. Ovie only has two finishes in the top five in the past ten years, and I think he has missed top ten seven times during that time. So of I'm not mistaken, he been outside the top ten scorers 8 out of 16 seasons.

If he fails to be within the top ten scorers half of the seasons during his prime, should he really be in the top ten players of all time? He's a winger, he has no defensive awareness, he has a history of failed play off runs.

Are nine rockets enough? I honestly don't think so. But add the goal scoring record, and we have a case. So we'll see. He's two goals closer after tonight at least.

Haha. He’s literally the best player the game has ever seen at doing the thing that is the point of the game (putting the puck in the net).

 

[txpd]

When it comes down to top ten of all times, I believe all around play is important. Marleau has the most games ever, who in their right mind would place him amongst even top 100? Ovie has struggled to be a ppg player when Crosby hasn't. Ovie only has two finishes in the top five in the past ten years, and I think he has missed top ten seven times during that time. So of I'm not mistaken, he been outside the top ten scorers 8 out of 16 seasons.

If he fails to be within the top ten scorers half of the seasons during his prime, should he really be in the top ten players of all time? He's a winger, he has no defensive awareness, he has a history of failed play off runs.

Are nine rockets enough? I honestly don't think so. But add the goal scoring record, and we have a case. So we'll see. He's two goals closer after tonight at least.

A history of failed playoff runs?? You are blaming him for those?? Come on. No defensive awareness? NONE? I wont even try. By now

 

[filinski77]

When it comes down to top ten of all times, I believe all around play is important. Marleau has the most games ever, who in their right mind would place him amongst even top 100? Ovie has struggled to be a ppg player when Crosby hasn't. Ovie only has two finishes in the top five in the past ten years, and I think he has missed top ten seven times during that time. So of I'm not mistaken, he been outside the top ten scorers 8 out of 16 seasons.

If he fails to be within the top ten scorers half of the seasons during his prime, should he really be in the top ten players of all time? He's a winger, he has no defensive awareness, he has a history of failed play off runs.

Are nine rockets enough? I honestly don't think so. But add the goal scoring record, and we have a case. So we'll see. He's two goals closer after tonight at least.

You can’t just look at the point finishes alone when looking at someone like Ovechkin.

Since the last time he’s finished in the top-10 in points, he’s still had Hart finishes of 6/7/9/12/13.

What’s better? Finishing 6th in points and 30th in goals, or 1st in goals and 14th in points? At the end of the day, scoring goals is the most important and hardest part of hockey. And Ovechkin was dominating the league in that aspect post-peak.

 

[txpd]

but his weight and style of play probably doesn't favor longevity in the long run..

The guy is over 35 and scoring at a 50 goal pace. He never misses games for injury. When he was 22 they said his weight and his style of play doesnt favor longevity in the long run. We are in the long run and this is what longevity looks like. This guy looks like a hockey version of Nolan Ryan to me.

 

[Beukeboom]

The guy is over 35 and scoring at a 50 goal pace. He never misses games for injury. When he was 22 they said his weight and his style of play doesnt favor longevity in the long run. We are in the long run and this is what longevity looks like. This guy looks like a hockey version of Nolan Ryan to me.

Sure. But post 35 is probably a different game. There aren't too many wrecking balls playing into their late 30's. The Marleau types tend to dominate. We'll see. I love his style so all the more credit to him if he keeps throwing his weight around, rather than safe guard and change his game.

And in regards to the failed playoffs. It's not only Ovie's fault of course. But check the other candidates in the top ten. There are a lot of SCs between them. His main competitor from his own generation sits at 3. Plus two Olympic golds. In my opinion Ovie needs the record to be considered top ten. Team hardware has always been incredibly important for a player's legacy, whether you like it or not.

 

[vippe]

You can’t just look at the point finishes alone when looking at someone like Ovechkin.

Since the last time he’s finished in the top-10 in points, he’s still had Hart finishes of 6/7/9/12/13.

What’s better? Finishing 6th in points and 30th in goals, or 1st in goals and 14th in points? At the end of the day, scoring goals is the most important and hardest part of hockey. And Ovechkin was dominating the league in that aspect post-peak.

It's so weird with Ovechkin. Most agree that his peak was between 07-10. Which is fair, to say.

But in terms of goalscoring..is he really post peak? he won 2 Rockets in his first 7 years.
He's won7 in his last 8.

He's no longer as dynamic as he once was, but in terms of goal scoring prowess.. I'd be damned if his peak wasnt after what most people argue is his peak.
And I'd probably bet money on Ovechkin winning the Rocket this year to had the season been 82 games long.

 

[Zuluss]

When it comes down to top ten of all times, I believe all around play is important. Marleau has the most games ever, who in their right mind would place him amongst even top 100? Ovie has struggled to be a ppg player when Crosby hasn't. Ovie only has two finishes in the top five in the past ten years, and I think he has missed top ten seven times during that time. So of I'm not mistaken, he been outside the top ten scorers 8 out of 16 seasons.

In all his seasons but one (11/12), Ovechkin finished top20 in points. The distance between top10 and top20 finish is usually small, roughly 7 points if we talk about jumping from #20 to #10, and may be as small as 2 points (see Ovechkin's 17/18 as an example).

Outside of O6-era players, who played when there were only 18 first-line players in the whole league, only two players have more top20 finishes in points than Ovechkin: Gretzky (18) and Dionne (16). Tied with Ovechkin is Sakic (14), Jagr with his insane longevity has only 13 top20 finishes in points.

Now here is the difference between Ovechkin and Dionne/Sakic who enjoyed similar longevity in the points race: both Dionne and Sakic had only 4 seasons when they received more than 5% of Hart votes. Ovechkin has 9 such seasons, and of post-expansion players only Gretzky has more.

One example of why Ovechkin's seasons outside of top10 in points matter: look at 15/16, when Ovechkin won the Rocket in a commanding fashion (17 goals ahead of #10 in goals), but finished 15th in points: he got a higher fraction of Hart votes that season than Crosby did the season before (14/15). Crosby was above ppg and top3 in points; yet, the Hart voters were more impressed by Ovechkin in 15/16.

And btw, Ovechkin is currently 20th in points - for the 15th time in his career if he holds on to that for another 10 games.

 

[tread102]

Let’s say he keeps up his pace for this season and finishes with 30; that’s 736.

I think he’ll sign a 4-year deal (or 1 year + 3-year deal) so that has contract expiration aligns with Backstrom’s. I’ll give him 35/year for the next 3 years + 25 in year 4: that puts him at 866; 28 goals short of Gretzky. Have to think he’d stick around another year or two on the 3rd line + power play to try and break it.

Will obviously depend on his health but man he hasn’t showed much sign of slowing down in terms of goal-scoring prowess.

You’re right, but Father Time is undefeated unless your name is Tom Brady. Ovi loos like he enjoys life and likes to live. I don’t think he is on the TB12 program

 

[ItWasJustified]

Will obviously depend on his health but man he hasn’t showed much sign of slowing down in terms of goal-scoring prowess.

I wonder what happened in 10-11 and 16-17? Both seasons he looked like he was going to slow down as a goalscorer but somehow picked himself right up again. Pretty amazing.

 

[Zuluss]

I wonder what happened in 10-11 and 16-17? Both seasons he looked like he was going to slow down as a goalscorer but somehow picked himself right up again. Pretty amazing.

The word is that Ovechkin injured his wrist and played through the injury. Fortunately, both injuries left no long-term effects.

 

[Demandedace]

I wonder what happened in 10-11 and 16-17? Both seasons he looked like he was going to slow down as a goalscorer but somehow picked himself right up again. Pretty amazing.

2010-2011 was a dark year for the Caps - they tried to overadjust and change too much after the abomination in the first round to the Habs and everything went sideways. We won the division by a couple of points and were shut out 10+ times, it was just weird.

2016-2017 It was rumored that he was dealing with wrist and lower body injuries pretty much the entire season

 

[RorschachWJK]

Sure. But post 35 is probably a different game. There aren't too many wrecking balls playing into their late 30's. The Marleau types tend to dominate. We'll see. I love his style so all the more credit to him if he keeps throwing his weight around, rather than safe guard and change his game.

And in regards to the failed playoffs. It's not only Ovie's fault of course. But check the other candidates in the top ten. There are a lot of SCs between them. His main competitor from his own generation sits at 3. Plus two Olympic golds. In my opinion Ovie needs the record to be considered top ten. Team hardware has always been incredibly important for a player's legacy, whether you like it or not.

Team awards are team awards. That is not a matter of opinion or liking. Like the earth is round instead of being flat.

 

[HTFN]

Sure. But post 35 is probably a different game. There aren't too many wrecking balls playing into their late 30's. The Marleau types tend to dominate. We'll see. I love his style so all the more credit to him if he keeps throwing his weight around, rather than safe guard and change his game.

And in regards to the failed playoffs. It's not only Ovie's fault of course. But check the other candidates in the top ten. There are a lot of SCs between them. His main competitor from his own generation sits at 3. Plus two Olympic golds. In my opinion Ovie needs the record to be considered top ten. Team hardware has always been incredibly important for a player's legacy, whether you like it or not.

Goal scorers leave their prime at 25...
Wear and tear...
The game is different in your 30's...
Power forwards age poorly...

Like, how can you recite "common knowledge" things about the guy at this point like you're doing anything but just openly hoping something catches up to him?

 

[YesCubed]

Ovechkin would have about 80 more goals if he didn't have almost 2 full seasons taken away from him due to things outside of his control (lockouts, COVID)

 

[Mulletman]

Have you ever asked yourself how a player with so many shots on goal doesnt pile up assists from teammates scoring his rebounds?

Well a lot of it has to do with Capitals not having any tough as nails guys to play with Ovechkin like when they had Mike Knuble. Ovechkin had 59 and 53 assists in the last 2 seasons he played with a productive Mike Knuble on his right wing. Mike Knuble used to put in a lot of those Ovechkin rebounds back in the day. Now all Ovi's got is a soft as butter playmaking pretty boy like Backstrom. Sure he's decent at getting Ovechkin the puck, but he won't be there for the rebound to get Ovechkin those extra assists every now and then.

But another thing has to do with assists being quite random and luck based too. Just look at the caps roster from 2005-06: NHL Stats
and the caps roster from 2006-07: NHL Stats
Ovechkin had 8 fewer assists in his second season while his top teammates scored a lot more goals. In 2006-07 both Clark and Semin reached 30 goals while Zubrus was the best goal scorer besided Ovechkin in 2005-06 with just 23 goals.

 

[tarheelhockey]

When it comes down to top ten of all times, I believe all around play is important. Marleau has the most games ever, who in their right mind would place him amongst even top 100? Ovie has struggled to be a ppg player when Crosby hasn't. Ovie only has two finishes in the top five in the past ten years, and I think he has missed top ten seven times during that time. So of I'm not mistaken, he been outside the top ten scorers 8 out of 16 seasons.

If he fails to be within the top ten scorers half of the seasons during his prime, should he really be in the top ten players of all time? He's a winger, he has no defensive awareness, he has a history of failed play off runs.

Are nine rockets enough? I honestly don't think so. But add the goal scoring record, and we have a case. So we'll see. He's two goals closer after tonight at least.

A simple way to approach this question.

- Plays left wing
- Doesn’t bring much defensively
- History of playoff flameouts
- His 30s have been great, but maybe not what his 20s looked like

That all describes Bobby Hull.

Bobby Hull is a consensus top-10 player.

If Ovechkin sets the all time goal scoring record (bearing in mind what that would look like over the next several years) would it still make sense to rank him below Bobby Hull?

If not, Ovechkin is a top-10 player.

 

[chauron]

A breeze is a bit of a stretch? Selanne had 190 goals over eight seasons? Ovie is certainly more of a tank, but his weight and style of play probably doesn't favor longevity in the long run. Hence I find another eight seasons to be exceedingly unlikely.

Edit: I am aware Selanne battled injuries, but that is something I'd bet goes hand in hand with being closer to 40. So like you say. It comes down to health and will.

IIRC Selanne also wasnt given PP time as much as he could have by Bruce Boudreau. So in order for the Ovi to success as well, he needs a buy-in from coach for this agenda.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Up to 730. Traktor Ovechkin just keeps chugging along.

 

[Zuluss]

That slap shot will probably still be there even if speed and quickness declines.

A few 5-on-5 plays, a few deflections, the rest just smashing slap shots from the circle.

Ovechkin led the league in ESG as recently as last season, and even today he is still in top10 in ESG, which is very good given how old he is and how much he is used on PP.

Looks like a lot more than the slap shot still remains. Like a whole lot more.