What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now? (Part 2)

[Slapshot Sultan]

Since Ovechkin entered the league he has 250 more goals than the next closest player. That’s like five 50 goal seasons worth of goals.

That’s just insane.

I love Ovi, but these type of things sound more impressive than they are as there are not that many players that have played all seasons from 05-21.

Not just Ovi, same problem with all these arguments ie any statistic from 98-21 with Marleau. He probably ranks pretty high in all statistics through that specific time period as there are only Thornton & Chara who have played all those specific seasons or even close.

But of course when counting goals, any statistic with Ovi is nuts..

 

[Slapshot Sultan]

I think people have a problem moreso with the idea of Ovechkin being called the best goal scorer, when he has a very inaccurate shot.

It's actually pretty impressive accuracy when you count in the amount of shots & era he played

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

So, odds of him getting to 894? 50/50?

 

[GrizzGreen]

shooting percentage has to play a part. Ovi is going to go down as the most prolific shooter ever he’s going to end up with 500-1000 more shots than number 2. That’s not even counting all the shots into the defenders shins or wide of the goal. Gretzky was a playmaker first goal scorer 2nd how many goal would he have scored if he played the game like Ovi.

Goalie save percentage has to play a part as well in that case.

 

[abo9]

I love Ovi, but these type of things sound more impressive than they are as there are not that many players that have played all seasons from 05-21.

Not just Ovi, same problem with all these arguments ie any statistic from 98-21 with Marleau. He probably ranks pretty high in all statistics through that specific time period as there are only Thornton & Chara who have played all those specific seasons or even close.

But of course when counting goals, any statistic with Ovi is nuts..

Yeah that number is a little "unfair" to younger players and since Ovechkin is 34 (35?) already, not a lot of players older than him are left.
But, look at these from the table in the previous page (BTW that's an insane labour of love, wow), I think these rows summarize well the scoring situation of each era, and how dominant Ovechkin was compared to his peers in a more fair fashion:

*As of 3/26/20

Ovi*

Brett

Mario

Gretz

Bossy

Espo

Bobby

Howe

Richard

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Quanity of NHL 50 goal seasons in their 1st 15 yrs

22

78

90

110

68^

30

10

1

1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

% of 50 goal seasons / 1st 15

36%

6.40%

6.70%

8%

13%

16.7%

50%

0%

100%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

From what I understand, it means that in the 15 years Ovechkin played, there were only 14 50-goal seasons other than his. And we all know that there was no other consistent 50 goals scorer, the others are split across a few players.

 

[filinski77]

Ah, yes. That's right - 15 year spans vs all active NHL players are two different things.

Seems pretty hard to find without doing a ton of manual labor. I did find some that were close, but not as good as what Ovi will likely have next year:

Ovi (next year)	728	Crosby	478	52%
Gretzky (last year of career)	894	Messier	610	47%
Howe (in 1970/1971)	786	Hull Sr	554	42%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I would need someone with more data to verify it, but there's a good chance that next year (not including tiny sample sizes from the very start of the NHL) will be the largest gap in NHL history between the 1st and 2nd most career goals of any active players in the league.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Seems pretty hard to find without doing a ton of manual labor. I did find some that were close, but not as good as what Ovi will likely have next year:

Ovi (next year)	728	Crosby	478	52%
Gretzky (last year of career)	894	Messier	610	47%
Howe (in 1970/1971)	786	Hull Sr	554	42%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I would need someone with more data to verify it, but there's a good chance that next year (not including tiny sample sizes from the very start of the NHL) will be the largest gap in NHL history between the 1st and 2nd most career goals of any active players in the league.

The best example I could find would be at the end of the Original Six era. Howe had 649 goals, and the closest active player was Beliveau with 399 goals - almost a 63% margin. I can't find any other examples going back to WWII.

But I think that highlights how rare it is for one person to have score ~50% more goals than the next closest active player.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Yeah that number is a little "unfair" to younger players and since Ovechkin is 34 (35?) already, not a lot of players older than him are left.
But, look at these from the table in the previous page (BTW that's an insane labour of love, wow), I think these rows summarize well the scoring situation of each era, and how dominant Ovechkin was compared to his peers in a more fair fashion:

*As of 3/26/20

Ovi*

Brett

Mario

Gretz

Bossy

Espo

Bobby

Howe

Richard

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Quanity of NHL 50 goal seasons in their 1st 15 yrs

22

78

90

110

68^

30

10

1

1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

% of 50 goal seasons / 1st 15

36%

6.40%

6.70%

8%

13%

16.7%

50%

0%

100%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

From what I understand, it means that in the 15 years Ovechkin played, there were only 14 50-goal seasons other than his. And we all know that there was no other consistent 50 goals scorer, the others are split across a few players.

That is correct.

But My favorite stat from that line is Rocket Richard had 100% of the 50 goal seasons from his era.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

So, odds of him getting to 894? 50/50?

Barring the end of the world/collapse of civilization or catastrophic injury, I’d say 90%.

 

[Weztex]

There is no need to pretend anything.

So you don’t have any defenseman or goalie ahead of Ovechkin?

You'd think so, but then you can go check HF's embarrassing nutty little history forum.

The last top-100 was put up 3 years ago and Ovechkin was ranked 22nd. He won 2 rockets since so it’s safe to say he would go up 4-6 spots now. If you think ranking Ovi around 15 is embarrassing maybe you are the one underestimating the bulky careers of a lot of players.

 

[Midnight Judges]

So you don’t have any defenseman or goalie ahead of Ovechkin?

Bobby Orr.

No goalies.

 

[Midnight Judges]

The last top-100 was put up 3 years ago and Ovechkin was ranked 22nd. He won 2 rockets since so it’s safe to say he would go up 4-6 spots now. If you think ranking Ovi around 15 is embarrassing maybe you are the one underestimating the bulky careers of a lot of players.

There is no justification. Just emotions, nationalistic pride, homerism, nostalgia, etc. Objectively speaking, Ovechkin compares to his generation better than anyone you could rank 10-15. So you can do what the history forum guys do: Simply assume the top end talent was far superior for several consecutive decades back when 90-97% of players were coming from one small country. Some of those guys would claim the 1956 Canadiens had 3 or 4 players that were all superior to the best players of the past 2 decades. And then they'd explain that kids today don't have the opportunities that kids who grew up during the Great Depression had. Seriously. Great Depression era kids were privileged. That was their argument. And that's far from the nuttiest assertion I encountered.

The participants weren't even honest, and it wasn't a very diverse group. It's was like 65% Canadians plus 15% Pens fans. 0 Caps fans. The only Russian participant quit the project in protest. So yeah, Ovie didn't get a fair shake, and he never will from those guys.

 

[CageRage]

I think age catches up with him before he can crack it. Would have been close if not for lockouts and covid. Still the greatest goal scorer ever, all considered.

 

[ViD]

Washington window will close in a couple years. I don’t see why they can’t keep re-signing Ovie for one year until he breaks the record while they rebuild. There’s no way he gets so bad he can’t score at least 15 a year

 

[Selanne00008]

That's kind of where I am at. Doesn't look like he is falling off a cliff health/shot/production wise. Lets say he can put up 80 more in two more seasons after this year. Fairly reasonable? Considering he's on pace this year for 46 goals over an 82 game season right now.

Lets say he finishes this year with 735 total, again, reasonable. 159 to go.

2 years later and he needs 79 goals? It's so close you can taste it. He'll stick around.

And if I had to bet right now on Ovie scoring O/U 80 goals over the next two seasons, I'd be hammering the over. So the 79 goals could be more like 70. A 50 goal season and it's even closer.

Seriously who in their right mind would stop at say 862 goals?

 

[tread102]

Goalie save percentage has to play a part as well in that case.

Never said it didn’t

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

That's kind of where I am at. Doesn't look like he is falling off a cliff health/shot/production wise. Lets say he can put up 80 more in two more seasons after this year. Fairly reasonable? Considering he's on pace this year for 46 goals over an 82 game season right now.

Lets say he finishes this year with 735 total, again, reasonable. 159 to go.

2 years later and he needs 79 goals? It's so close you can taste it. He'll stick around.

And if I had to bet right now on Ovie scoring O/U 80 goals over the next two seasons, I'd be hammering the over. So the 79 goals could be more like 70. A 50 goal season and it's even closer.

Seriously who in their right mind would stop at say 862 goals?

Think he gets 8 more in 13 games? Wait, of course he will lol.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

He'll likely get at least one tonight against the crappy Sabres.

 

[Selanne00008]

Think he gets 8 more in 13 games? Wait, of course he will lol.

He's due a hatty this year. (or back to back hatty)

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

He's due a hatty this year. (or back to back hatty)

He’s had back to back tricks in 3 straight seasons.

 

[Wolf357]

One of those records I always thought unbreakable...As a Gretzky fan TBH I don’t want his record to be broken. But as a fan of the game I am always happy to see new records broken...
I also like Ovie...just seems like a guy who really has fun out there...if Ovi does for some reason not break the record I hope it’s not due to injury...

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

Great night. In order.
Canes won, Caps lost, no Ovi goal!

 

[BallardEra]

#729 and 730 today.

 

[123offtheglass]

Might have to play into his 40s but I say it's 51/49 he gets it done before then.

 

[SkyFaile]

95% if no major injuries