Player Discussion What do we have in J.T. Miller?

[Bertuzzzi44]

Miller fits so well with Pettersson and Boeser, great chemistry! Currently one of the best lines in hockey.

 

[Killer Orcas]

Why is if painful to point out a good thing when it is actually a good thing

Because Benning has done a lot of harm to team over years and a rebuilding team shouldn't be trading first rd picks. However this time it looks like so far was a good decision.

 

[DarrenX]

I think a lot of people also surmised that since Tampa was in a bit of a cap crunch that we should have got a better deal on the player.

Yes, a lot of people were saying that, but they were incorrect, because they forget there were 29 other teams in the league who could also make an offer, and our offer has to beat all of them.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Yes, a lot of people were saying that, but they were incorrect, because they forget there were 29 other teams in the league who could also make an offer, and our offer has to beat all of them.

I cant believe there are still people arguing this was fair price.

Miller has been far better than expected.

Jim Benning failed to capitalize on an opportunity to get him for cheaper.

Both can be true.

 

[MikeK]

There is definitively an argument to be made that the price was too high. But who cares. None of us will ever know how many teams were actually in the mix or what the other offers were. Maybe that is what it took to get him to Van. Maybe Benning did a Benning. We'll never know. The bottom line is that he's been absolutely fantastic and if this team continues to play the way they have been and make the playoffs than not only was it a good trade but it was a border line steal.

 

[Bobby9]

He’s a good addition to the team so far for sure.
Really like his style. I think the trades even as of now. Not because the pick doesn’t have value but because the likelyhood of the Canucks developing a player with that pick to be as good as JT is very low.

 

[bandwagonesque]

I cant believe there are still people arguing this was fair price.

Miller has been far better than expected.

Jim Benning failed to capitalize on an opportunity to get him for cheaper.

Both can be true.

There's no evidence the second statement is true.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

There is definitively an argument to be made that the price was too high. But who cares. None of us will ever know how many teams were actually in the mix or what the other offers were. Maybe that is what it took to get him to Van. Maybe Benning did a Benning. We'll never know. The bottom line is that he's been absolutely fantastic and if this team continues to play the way they have been and make the playoffs than not only was it a good trade but it was a border line steal.

If the Nucks have a decent season and the 1st round pick is in the second half of the round then the trade is a great one for the Nucks.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

There is definitively an argument to be made that the price was too high. But who cares.

I care.

None of us will ever know how many teams were actually in the mix or what the other offers were. Maybe that is what it took to get him to Van. Maybe Benning did a Benning.

I would be completely fine with us having our picks and Miller having a hot start to hes season on another team that gave up those picks for him.
Maybe that team actually made the playoffs last year and Miller is a piece that makes them a contender?

We'll never know. The bottom line is that he's been absolutely fantastic and if this team continues to play the way they have been and make the playoffs than not only was it a good trade but it was a border line steal.

IMO he has been our best skater so far.

It is not a steal. Tampa was in cap trouble to sign their FAs and with their trade clauses he was the odd man out. That does not show in the price one bit.
We paid for him like he is the missing piece on a cup contender and like Tampa is just making a hockey trade.

 

[F A N]

I cant believe there are still people arguing this was fair price.

Miller has been far better than expected.

Jim Benning failed to capitalize on an opportunity to get him for cheaper.

Both can be true.

Yes the above can be true in addition to the Canucks having paid a fair price.

 

[MikeK]

If the Nucks have a decent season and the 1st round pick is in the second half of the round then the trade is a great one for the Nucks.

Agreed.

 

[deckercky]

We paid for him like he is the missing piece on a cup contender and like Tampa is just making a hockey trade.

Utter nonsense. The Canucks didn't get him for scraps, but still paid a very low price for a likely top line player paid below market price for four seasons of his prime. Maybe the Canucks could have gotten him for a bit less if they squeezed Tampa, or maybe Tampa trades him to someone else if the Canucks squeezed.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Nice to see he’s working out for you guys. He’s extremely underrated IMO. He was a pleasant surprise when he came over, instantly clicked with Stamkos and Kucherov (two highly talented guys btw - you see a pattern here?) but somehow found himself in Cooper’s dog house after a while, playing bottom-6 for some odd reason. I never got that, but I’m happy for him and you guys. Good luck going forward!

 

[Bourdon]

A breakdown of his impact, advanced stats, etc.

 

[tradervik]

I agree
They only found that [zone starts] affected the first little bit of a shift and the value shifted back to the aggregate.

Do you have a source for that or any hints to find more info? I'd love to read up on it.

I'm also curious about faceoff "wins". Is it based purely on the head to head matchup of the players taking the draw or does it factor in who actually gains possession?

 

[Luck 6]

I cant believe there are still people arguing this was fair price.

Miller has been far better than expected.

Jim Benning failed to capitalize on an opportunity to get him for cheaper.

Both can be true.

If we didn’t pay the full asking price, we would have simply been submitting a bid against several other teams. Would we have still got him? Maybe, and it may have been for less. But, based on how good he has been along with contract and age, I’m sure glad we didn’t take the risk. In some cases, it makes more sense to just pay the asking price. This was one of those cases.

 

[DonnyNucker]

If we didn’t pay the full asking price, we would have simply been submitting a bid against several other teams. Would we have still got him? Maybe, and it may have been for less. But, based on how good he has been along with contract and age, I’m sure glad we didn’t take the risk. In some cases, it makes more sense to just pay the asking price. This was one of those cases.

But this wasn’t the asking price. Tampa asked for more and after negotiations the teams settled on this price. Fair or not fair, the idea that there wasn’t a negotiation is preposterous

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Utter nonsense. The Canucks didn't get him for scraps, but still paid a very low price for a likely top line player paid below market price for four seasons of his prime. Maybe the Canucks could have gotten him for a bit less if they squeezed Tampa, or maybe Tampa trades him to someone else if the Canucks squeezed.

Ok guess I have to believe there are number of people who still will defend the price we paid.

 

[F A N]

Ok guess I have to believe there are number of people who still will defend the price we paid.

Are you feinting ignorance or what? There were posters here who defended the trade from the start. I think most posters who disliked the trade did so based on their prediction of where the 1st round pick would likely end up and the value they placed on the perceived risk that that pick would turn into a top pick even though the odds are very slim. Some dislike the trade also because they hate Benning and grabbed onto the report that Benning reportedly didn't negotiate.

I don't think there are many here who didn't think it was a fair enough trade if the 1st was a non lottery pick and Miller bounces back and produces the way he did in the 2 years previous to last season which was 22-23 goals and 55+ points. Miller is one year older than Horvat and signed for 4 years at $5.25M AAV with no trade restrictions. He was acquired to play alongside either Horvat or Petey and he's been a great fit so far. How could you not defend the trade right now? It has worked out so far as well as we can hope for.

 

[JAK]

The odds of a random first round pick to turn out to be an impact player is maybe 60%.
The odds of a first round pick after the top 10 drops down dramatically to around 30%.

People talk as if the first rounder we gave up is going to be a generational player, typical of HF.

Come on people, the first rounder is not worth that much.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Are you feinting ignorance or what? There were posters here who defended the trade from the start. I think most posters who disliked the trade did so based on their prediction of where the 1st round pick would likely end up and the value they placed on the perceived risk that that pick would turn into a top pick even though the odds are very slim. Some dislike the trade also because they hate Benning and grabbed onto the report that Benning reportedly didn't negotiate.

I don't think there are many here who didn't think it was a fair enough trade if the 1st was a non lottery pick and Miller bounces back and produces the way he did in the 2 years previous to last season which was 22-23 goals and 55+ points. Miller is one year older than Horvat and signed for 4 years at $5.25M AAV with no trade restrictions. He was acquired to play alongside either Horvat or Petey and he's been a great fit so far. How could you not defend the trade right now? It has worked out so far as well as we can hope for.

How stupid would it be to let a 10 game stretch affect how you evaluate that trade?

 

[Disappointed EP40]

If the Nucks have a decent season and the 1st round pick is in the second half of the round then the trade is a great one for the Nucks.

This really is what it comes down to.

If the Canucks finish well, it's likely Miller has been contributing, and the pick if in that < 15th it's very unlikely to turn into Miller. It really hinges on that for me.

Gets really interesting if the Canucks miss though.

The high price argument is kind of a thing, but if there were any other offers and it was a competition, that could drive up the price. Either way, it's all speculation.

 

[Disappointed EP40]

Are you feinting ignorance or what? There were posters here who defended the trade from the start. I think most posters who disliked the trade did so based on their prediction of where the 1st round pick would likely end up and the value they placed on the perceived risk that that pick would turn into a top pick even though the odds are very slim. Some dislike the trade also because they hate Benning and grabbed onto the report that Benning reportedly didn't negotiate.

I think there are many here who think it was a fair enough trade if the 1st was a non lottery pick and Miller bounces back and produces the way he did in the 2 years previous to last season which was 22-23 goals and 55+ points..

Of course.. People didn't know we were going to sign Myers, Hughes was going to exceed expectations, both goalies continued to play well, JT Miller was going to click, and the bottom six was going to play well above their career averages..

There's a lot of variables currently padding the trade's scale so to speak. Let's wait until the All Star break at very least. Then the end of the season.

Everything couldn't look better at this point, but sticking a fork in it right now would be like going right for the cow on the farm.

 

[Disappointed EP40]

The odds of a random first round pick to turn out to be an impact player is maybe 60%.
The odds of a first round pick after the top 10 drops down dramatically to around 30%.

People talk as if the first rounder we gave up is going to be a generational player, typical of HF.

Come on people, the first rounder is not worth that much.

The value debate is interesting.. ..you can't just simplify the equation to what you posted.

Because that pick can get you a player that's unattainable through other means. Albeit unlikely, because of this, one has to have more value than these odds. Add in the player is cost controlled and the value increases.

While I don't disagree that people over value picks on here, I think 1st rounders have value. The odds you posted are kinda inaccurate. Here's an article with a complete break-down.

What is an NHL First-Round Pick Worth? - The 4th Line Podcast

 

[canuckslover10]

I cant believe there are still people arguing this was fair price.

Miller has been far better than expected.

Jim Benning failed to capitalize on an opportunity to get him for cheaper.

Both can be true.

I'm pretty sure there were other teams involved as well I doubt he could have gotten him at a cheaper price