Agreed. Every player is going to have dry spells and even subpar seasons. Miller still put up 47 points last season. Plus Miller almost always gets moved around in the lineup including playing 3rd line C. How much of that is because he's struggling or because he's the best option there? I would think it's more of the latter. If Miller is utilized in a top 6 winger spot alongside Petey and Boeser with 1st unit PP time he's shown that he's capable of producing legit first line offensive production.
Player Discussion What do we have in J.T. Miller?
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Agreed. Every player is going to have dry spells and even subpar seasons. Miller still put up 47 points last season. Plus Miller almost always gets moved around in the lineup including playing 3rd line C. How much of that is because he's struggling or because he's the best option there? I would think it's more of the latter. If Miller is utilized in a top 6 winger spot alongside Petey and Boeser with 1st unit PP time he's shown that he's capable of producing legit first line offensive production.
Tables of Stats
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So you have no argument as to why P/60 is, in your opinion, an invalid metric by which one might estimate a player's production from season to season. This after you called me out for not showing my work...
I'm going to ask you to explain your position in as much detail as I've explained mine or else ask for you to issue an apology for calling me out in your prior post.
DS7
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Think he was being generous hehe, I don't recall a single time this regime did something you didn't like.
Kinda like Y2k, he has valid criticism of the regime, but i'm pretty sure he's lost all ability to sit down and enjoy a game of the Canucks.
On the other side of the coin, is you, I feel like if Benning said the moon was made of cheese, you'd sniff the air and swear you'd smell cheddar.
But you do you haha
Back to the thread, JT Miller is great, the value is sound so far (but I oh so would have loved to have a 2020 pick), the timing is questionable. Benning has shown he can extract better value through the draft, one of my frustrations is that he is literally undercutting his own strength by constantly signing these UFAs and Trading for projects.
Tables of Stats
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Think he was being generous hehe, I don't recall a single time this regime did something you didn't like.
Kinda like Y2k, he has valid criticism of the regime, but i'm pretty sure he's lost all ability to sit down and enjoy a game of the Canucks.
On the other side of the coin, is you, I feel like if Benning said the moon was made of cheese, you'd sniff the air and swear you'd smell cheddar.
But you do you haha
Back to the thread, JT Miller is great, the value is sound so far (but I oh so would have loved to have a 2020 pick), the timing is questionable. Benning has shown he can extract better value through the draft, one of my frustrations is that he is literally undercutting his own strength by constantly signing these UFAs and Trading for projects.
We still have a 2020 pick, we only give that one up if we make the playoffs this season. While the team's early results are positive we could still end up with a lottery pick this season as a bubble team that just missed the playoffs. In such a case Tampa would take our 2021 pick regardless of how well or poorly we place in the standings.
Numba9
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Lol, just looked through your post history, if I were you I'm not sure I would be lecturing someone about not being objective. When's the last time you were able to sit down and enjoy a Canucks game?Think he was being generous hehe, I don't recall a single time this regime did something you didn't like.
Kinda like Y2k, he has valid criticism of the regime, but i'm pretty sure he's lost all ability to sit down and enjoy a game of the Canucks.
On the other side of the coin, is you, I feel like if Benning said the moon was made of cheese, you'd sniff the air and swear you'd smell cheddar.
But you do you haha
Back to the thread, JT Miller is great, the value is sound so far (but I oh so would have loved to have a 2020 pick), the timing is questionable. Benning has shown he can extract better value through the draft, one of my frustrations is that he is literally undercutting his own strength by constantly signing these UFAs and Trading for projects.
Sky04
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This is correct, I'm not sure how anyone can argue otherwise. He played the majority of the season on the 4th line with a rotating cast of linemates. It hurt his production which was trending upwards for 4 consecutive seasons. I disagree with the way he was used in Tampa because he had told much skill to be pushed down but hey he gave us a dominant 4th line last season.
Considering his style of play and career trajectory, his contract is perfect. He's signed through ages 25-30 which will likely be his entire peak/prime, not much to complain about.
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Thanks for weighing in Sky.
I didn't watch many of your team's games last season but the stats and comments from posters such as yourself paint the picture of Miller playing well but never having much of a leash. He could work his way up to the top line if he played perfectly but a small cold stretch would send him down the lineup with little time to play himself back into form. Would you say that's a fair description of his usage?
Sky04
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That's partly it, I think he did have a shorter leash than others only because the core group of supporting players on our team have been with Cooper since the minors and are more adjusted with his coaching style.
The other purpose was to spread the scoring depth. Whether it's by coincidence or cause the Lightning went on tear around the time Miller was slotted there so the formula just worked and went unchanged. Miller who's a great possession player made the 4th line a threat. Despite lower overall point totals Miller had some of the best possession numbers of his career last year and an increase in almost every WAR metric which backs up his upwards trending trajectory as a player.
GetFocht
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He's a first liner, 10 points in 9 games is the best start you can ask from him.
I wonder how many posters who thought Miller was a complimentary player who benefited from playing on the 1st unit PP have changed their mind and see just how good of a player Miller and how good he is on the PP.
The guy put up close to 60 points playing with Michael Grabner. Enough said.
PuckMunchkin
Very Nice, Very Evil!
Oooooooooor..... Maybe he is shooting 5% above his career average and has a 5% higher on-ice shooting percentage than his career average.
He is poised to have a career year with the hot start he has enjoyed. But his production can be explained by an abnormally high on-ice shooting%
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Miller's not a sniper and hasn't scored more than 22 goals in a season over his entire career. As such, his point totals aren't driven by his goal-scoring rate and because of that when his shot falls off I expect him to keep pace with his assists. Will he finish with his current projection of ~91 points? Probably not. Does his P/60 rate with New York and Tampa suggest he's due for a career year if his ice-time remains high? Yes, yes it does.
I'm comfortable predicting a season where he finishes with around 20 goals and 65 points so long as he stays healthy and isn't bumped out of the top two lines or top PP for any substantial length of time. Would you call this unrealistic?
PuckMunchkin
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Maybe I am missing your point but... his on-ice shooting% heavily influences his assist rates.
Adjusting for his hot start I'd say 65 is at the high end of a reasonable expectation.
Exactly, and Miller has put up seasons where his SH% is 16+%. Miller actually doesn't shoot all that much. The number of shots Virtanen took last season is more than Miller's career high.
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How does his rate of goal scoring impact his assist rates? Does one need to be a 19% shooter to put up assists now?
PuckMunchkin
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Oh sorry.
On-ice shooting% means all the shots when he is on the ice. Not just the shots he takes but the shots his line-mates take as well.
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I missed that you included shooting percentage and on-ice shooting percentage in the same sentence. Yeah, if his on-ice shooting % is high that should signal a drop in production for him. That said, how do those numbers compare to those of his common line-mates and could it be that he's just playing with a pair of efficient scorers in Boeser and Pettersson and reaping the rewards?
I'll look it up myself tomorrow but if you have numbers on hand I'd appreciate you posting them. We might not always agree on what the numbers mean but I appreciate postes like yourself that back their claims with stats.
I think he's having a hot start on a new team like he always does wearing a new jersey, and he's going to cool off, and everyone's going to be disappointed because they were expecting him to score a point a game all year. But please don't be, because he's a great player and I'm pleased we have him! Keep those expectations tempered.
Bankerguy
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- Apr 28, 2013
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production aside, he's winning puck battles in the corners, beating guys to pucks, coming back and helping out the D. He's playing like a first line winger, production aside.
PuckMunchkin
Very Nice, Very Evil!
Boeser is shooting at 7.4% this year and Petey at 11.8%.
I agree. He has been our best skater so far this season. 2nd best player behind MarkstDemkö.
Tables of Stats
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Hmm, that suggests that his high on-ice shooting % is entirely due to the defense and his own scoring rate. That could actually bode well for his numbers as Boeser and Pettersson should start shooting rates close to 15%. If the PP starts to click more consistently that should also be good for him as well.
EDIT: None of this is to say I expect his current pace to continue, my expectation is 60 to 70 points assuming he stays healthy, his usage stays at 18+ minutes per game, he's on a line with one of Boeser or Pettersson 5-on-5, and he keeps getting 1st unit PP time.
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lawrence
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J.T Miller has some of the best advanced stats right now. Yes it's early small sample size, either way, there is no denying it....
he has made a very positive impact on our team. I refuse to believe people don't see the how helpful he's been to our top 6.
Miller had a solid analytics profile coming into this season. Good to see it continue, and based on what we see on the ice, it's no surprise he's strong in this regard.
For a guy that many claimed wouldn't 'move the needle', man has this guy moved the needle.
For a guy that many claimed wouldn't 'move the needle', man has this guy moved the needle.
Still early yet....what we're seeing now might continue....but then there's the Tampa version of J.T. Miller who drove coaches crazy. Check back at the 40 game mark.
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