Player Discussion What do we have in J.T. Miller?

[PuckMunchkin]

Miller had a solid analytics profile coming into this season. Good to see it continue, and based on what we see on the ice, it's no surprise he's strong in this regard.

For a guy that many claimed wouldn't 'move the needle', man has this guy moved the needle.

Have to agree.

We probably lose 2-3 more games if he does not carry us offensively these first weeks.

J.T Miller has some of the best advanced stats right now. Yes it's early small sample size, either way, there is no denying it....

he has made a very positive impact on our team. I refuse to believe people don't see the how helpful he's been to our top 6.

CF% alone does not tell much as it is affected by zone starts.

What makes this even more impressive is that he leads the league in CF% Rel with 17.9% and all this with 41.7% oZone starts.

2nd is Sean Couturier with 15.7 while geting 57.4% oZone starts.

 

[lawrence]

the Tampa version of J.T. Miller who drove coaches crazy.

what did he do to drive em crazy?

 

[PuckMunchkin]

what did he do to drive em crazy?

Nothing really. He spent the 3rd quarter of last season on the 3rd line.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Hmm, that suggests that his high on-ice shooting % is entirely due to the defense and his own scoring rate.

Thats not a red flag to you?

D-men shooting at 15%?

 

[F A N]

Thats not a red flag to you?

D-men shooting at 15%?

Huh? I think you misread.

 

[Tables of Stats]

CF% alone does not tell much as it is affected by zone starts.

What makes this even more impressive is that he leads the league in CF% Rel with 17.9% and all this with 41.7% oZone starts.

2nd is Sean Couturier with 15.7 while geting 57.4% oZone starts.

I thought the new line of thinking was that zone starts and face-offs were found to have only a small impact on CF%. I could be wrong though as I haven't followed the various advanced stats debates that closely for a while now.

Thats not a red flag to you?

D-men shooting at 15%?

If you read the rest of the post it's clear that I think that is a red flag. My thought is that if EP40 and BB6 get their mojo back and the PP stays steady at ~20% he should still get points. By points, I mean 60-70 points not his current 90+ point pace.

His hot start actually makes 65 points more likely too. To hit it now he only needs to score 55 points in 73 games, a 0.75 PPG pace versus the 0.79 PPG pace he had to be on at the start of the season. It's a small drop I know, but the longer he stays hot the better the odds that he hits his higher-end scoring predictions.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I thought the new line of thinking was that zone starts and face-offs were found to have only a small impact on CF%. I could be wrong though as I haven't followed the various advanced stats debates that closely for a while now.

I dont see how that could be possible.

If you read the rest of the post it's clear that I think that is a red flag. My thought is that if EP40 and BB6 get their mojo back and the PP stays steady at ~20% he should still get points. By points, I mean 60-70 points not his current 90+ point pace.

Oh ok. Just missunderstood as you followed it directly in to "That could actually bode well for his numbers..."

 

[Tables of Stats]

I dont see how that could be possible.

I think it mostly has to do with good players being able to transition the puck into the offensive zone off of a defensive face-off. It's not uncommon for a line to win a defensive zone face-off and go on to generate a scoring chance off of that possession. If it's found that players with good CF% numbers aren't effected while players with poor CF% numbers are, that actually argues that zone starts can mask a poor player's flaws but that you don't need to feed stars offensive zone starts.

Now I'm not sure that this actually turned out to be the case, I just recall that there was a debate about it a while back. Perhaps Melvin would know how that one turned out.

Oh ok. Just missunderstood as you followed it directly in to "That could actually bode well for his numbers..."

My thought is that the D cooling off has other areas that can partially balance it by heating up. If the D, EP40, and BB6 were all hot and the PP was at 30% and he was still only on a 90 point pace that would bode poorly for him hitting that 60 - 70 point range. Given that this isn't the case I see room for things to balance out while letting him stay on track.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I think it mostly has to do with good players being able to transition the puck into the offensive zone off of a defensive face-off. It's not uncommon for a line to win a defensive zone face-off and go on to generate a scoring chance off of that possession. If it's found that players with good CF% numbers aren't effected while players with poor CF% numbers are, that actually argues that zone starts can mask a poor player's flaws but that you don't need to feed stars offensive zone starts.

Those players seem very very rare.
Bergeron, Barkov & Couturier at center. Stone at wing etc. The very elite of elite.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Those players seem very very rare.
Bergeron, Barkov & Couturier at center. Stone at wing etc. The very elite of elite.

Q. Hughes seems to have that quality as does Pettersson when he's at his best.

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

Terrific player. The impressive thing about Miller is his spacing and utilization of the ice. He opens up lanes by getting the puck to the right place which opens up the game in a controlled positive way for his teammates. He’s a smart player, with good skating and nice hands.

 

[GetFocht]

Ed Willes: Canucks paid a high price for J.T. Miller, but he’s been worth every penny

There were 4 teams in on him during the draft.

 

[Numba9]

Ed Willes: Canucks paid a high price for J.T. Miller, but he’s been worth every penny

There were 4 teams in on him during the draft.

also this:

“They were asking for more than we gave up,” Benning said.

 

[VancouverJagger]

also this:

“They were asking for more than we gave up,” Benning said.

I tend to believe Jimbo when he speaks on matters like this as he doesn't come across as wily enough to lie.

Funny as this board was full of people who lambasted him as paying the exact asking price and no negotiating was done. I think a lot of people also surmised that since Tampa was in a bit of a cap crunch that we should have got a better deal on the player.

I think it's clear we got a good player here and this could turn out to be the best deal he's ever done (Admittedly the bar is pretty low). The biggest question for me at this point is if Miller can maintain this as consistency seems to be an issue he's struggled with in the past.

 

[Blue and Green]

I tend to believe Jimbo when he speaks on matters like this as he doesn't come across as wily enough to lie.

Funny as this board was full of people who lambasted him as paying the exact asking price and no negotiating was done. I think a lot of people also surmised that since Tampa was in a bit of a cap crunch that we should have got a better deal on the player.

I think it's clear we got a good player here and this could turn out to be the best deal he's ever done (Admittedly the bar is pretty low). The biggest question for me at this point is if Miller can maintain this as consistency seems to be an issue he's struggled with in the past.

Unloading Gudbranson for Pearson would be my choice. Too bad the deal really shakes down as McCann, a 2nd and a 4th, plus paying Gudbranson more than $10M for nearly three years of poor play, in exchange for probably two years of Pearson and a 5th. When your best trade merely cuts the losses somewhat on a really bad trade...

Miller's a good player; I thought from the start and still think that it was basically a fair deal for both teams.

 

[SurferBroChad]

J.T Miller has some of the best advanced stats right now. Yes it's early small sample size, either way, there is no denying it....

he has made a very positive impact on our team. I refuse to believe people don't see the how helpful he's been to our top 6.

yeah but we might lose out on drafting the next brendan gaunce because of him

if miller stops that from happening im going to burn my frankie corrado jersey

 

[Bankerguy]

i cant believe the Gallagher vs Miller poll was so lopsided

This season so far, Miller has more points

Miller has a better career high pt total (57 vs 54)

They have similar career best +/- seasons but Millers worst season is only -7 where Gallagher's worst is an ugly -13

Miller had better size

Advanced stats career wise and this year favor Miller

Miller can play LW, C, RW, Gallagher cannot

Miller is younger, throws more hits and incurs less penalties

Having Miller on the roster gives a team a better shot at winning rather than Gallagher

Maybe he's underrated?

 

[Regal]

i cant believe the Gallagher vs Miller poll was so lopsided

This season so far, Miller has more points

Miller has a better career high pt total (57 vs 54)

They have similar career best +/- seasons but Millers worst season is only -7 where Gallagher's worst is an ugly -13

Miller had better size

Advanced stats career wise and this year favor Miller

Miller can play LW, C, RW, Gallagher cannot

Miller is younger, throws more hits and incurs less penalties

Having Miller on the roster gives a team a better shot at winning rather than Gallagher

Maybe he's underrated?

Not sure what numbers you're looking at, but Gallagher's career possession numbers both actual and relative blow Miller's away.

 

[Killer Orcas]

I was pretty pissed at the cost but the way he's fit in well you can't argue that. I've been convinced that well this was a solid deal after all who knows what the pick will be but Miller the known is much appreciated. You'd have to think Elias and Boeser are pretty happy they got him to. Damn Benning actually did good here as much as it pains me to say. The Canucks had a nice off season and games are fun to watch again.

 

[vanuck]

I've done the same thing but in his case, I'm not sure that holds unless one also accounts for his season to season ice-time and usage. For most players, that's fairly static but for Miller, not so much.

Do the same calculation but factor in P/60 and his ice time with the Canucks so far and you'll get a better read.

i agree, he has averaged 2.5pts/60 the last 3 years. If we assume he will continue at 18 minutes per game he is a 60 point player

he could easily be higher than 2.5/60 with more PP time in Vancouver.

Yeah it all just depends on what kind of ice time he'll get this season. NYR and TBL were strong teams and he wasn't a front line player like he could potentially be here. I definitely expect him to stay within the top 6 through all 82 games, so at minimum he should hit 53 points even from "just" 2nd line minutes. I'm not sure he will, but if he consistently stays on the 1st line with 1st unit PP time then he could hit 60+ points.

 

[sting101]

https://thehockeywriters.com/tampa-bay-lightning-trade-block-jt-miller/

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

I was pretty pissed at the cost but the way he's fit in well you can't argue that. I've been convinced that well this was a solid deal after all who knows what the pick will be but Miller the known is much appreciated. You'd have to think Elias and Boeser are pretty happy they got him to. Damn Benning actually did good here as much as it pains me to say. The Canucks had a nice off season and games are fun to watch again.

Why is if painful to point out a good thing when it is actually a good thing

 

[Tables of Stats]

One interesting thing to note about Miller is that he's 60% at the face-off dot and has taken more draws that Pettersson so far this season. Given that winning face-offs is one of Pettersson's weaknesses this is giving that line a slight boost in possession stats.

Just in case anybody needed another reason to like the start he's had to this season.

 

[Spectrefire]

One interesting thing to note about Miller is that he's 60% at the face-off dot and has taken more draws that Pettersson so far this season. Given that winning face-offs is one of Pettersson's weaknesses this is giving that line a slight boost in possession stats.

Just in case anybody needed another reason to like the start he's had to this season.

His overall versatility is just so useful.

Last season, if either of Petey or Horvat went down, we're stuck with second line-centre Brandon Sutter.

If god forbid that happens this season, JT Miller makes a perfectly competent top-six centre.

 

[Breakers]

I thought the new line of thinking was that zone starts and face-offs were found to have only a small impact on CF%. I could be wrong though as I haven't followed the various advanced stats debates that closely for a while now.

I agree
They only found that it affected the first little bit of a shift and the value shifted back to the aggregate.