Player Discussion What do we have in J.T. Miller?

[Blue and Green]

What people forget is Vancouver was not the only team Tampa had to move salary to. They had a plethora of players they could have moved out, and many teams would be interested in many of those players.

Tampa didn't have a plethora of players to move. From the group of nine players making $4M+ (not including Callahan who had already been placed on LTIR), Miller and Kucherov were the only two without trade protection. All of the others have full NTC's or NMC's. So realistically, Miller was the guy who was going to be moved.

 

[bossram]

I think this thread should be brought back up around Christmas time, I suspect when Miller is clicking with Pettersson or Horvat and is 2nd/3rd in team scoring, some feelings may have changed.

No one disagrees that Miller is a good player. I am actually quite high on him.

What people are debating is whether the price paid was reasonable, especially considering we are still a rebuilding team that shouldn't be trading first round picks and that Tampa was already in a cap squeeze. Benning should have been trying his absolute best to have not paid a premium for Miller, but it appears that he did so. He even stated himself that "prices will go down closer to free agency". If that's legitimately what he thinks, why did he not wait for a better deal?

 

[DonnyNucker]

No one disagrees that Miller is a good player. I am actually quite high on him.

What people are debating is whether the price paid was reasonable, especially considering we are still a rebuilding team that shouldn't be trading first round picks and that Tampa was already in a cap squeeze. Benning should have been trying his absolute best to have not paid a premium for Miller, but it appears that he did so. He even stated himself that "prices will go down closer to free agency". If that's legitimately what he thinks, why did he not wait for a better deal?

He didn’t wait because Miller was his guy and he was worried about losing him. As we all know he would rather pay to get his player than wait for a second tier option. Sometimes it makes sense and sometimes it can backfire

 

[tantalum]

I think this thread should be brought back up around Christmas time, I suspect when Miller is clicking with Pettersson or Horvat and is 2nd/3rd in team scoring, some feelings may have changed.

There another side to that coin...the other cap dumps that have occurred and will occur also better not be producing for their new teams.

And really, clicking or not it's still bad value, bad timing, bad management.

 

[F A N]

Erik Haula would be a good addition for the price Carolina paid. But he's 28. Next year he will be 29. If he doesn't stay healthy and produce 2nd line numbers would you extend him? If he does stay healthy and produce 2nd line numbers what would it take to extend him and what would be your bottom line considering that he would be 29? In contrast, Miller's contract expires when he is 29.

 

[Canucks1096]

No one disagrees that Miller is a good player. I am actually quite high on him.

What people are debating is whether the price paid was reasonable, especially considering we are still a rebuilding team that shouldn't be trading first round picks and that Tampa was already in a cap squeeze. Benning should have been trying his absolute best to have not paid a premium for Miller, but it appears that he did so. He even stated himself that "prices will go down closer to free agency". If that's legitimately what he thinks, why did he not wait for a better deal?

If you read every post. There are people saying Miller is a third line player. Middle 6 player. Didn't score 20 goals in 3 years which is not true.

He is a legit top 6 winger.

 

[The Pucks]

If you read every post. There are people saying Miller is a third line player. Middle 6 player. Didn't score 20 goals in 3 years which is not true.

He is a legit top 6 winger.

he is a legit top 6 forward, and on the Canucks he is probably a top 3 forward, top 2 winger. On Tampa he is a top 9 guy, thats not a knock on him, its a credit to their team.

 

[DonnyNucker]

Erik Haula would be a good addition for the price Carolina paid. But he's 28. Next year he will be 29. If he doesn't stay healthy and produce 2nd line numbers would you extend him? If he does stay healthy and produce 2nd line numbers what would it take to extend him and what would be your bottom line considering that he would be 29? In contrast, Miller's contract expires when he is 29.

The odds he produces 2nd line numbers are very very slim.

 

[bossram]

He didn’t wait because Miller was his guy and he was worried about losing him. As we all know he would rather pay to get his player than wait for a second tier option. Sometimes it makes sense and sometimes it can backfire

Yes, we've seen him do this time and again. It is not a sound strategy. You can't just identify a guy you want and immediately pay whatever asking price there is. You have to weigh the cost and the result.

It's like if I wanted to buy a Nintendo Switch, there was only one in the store, and the guy was like "gimme $1000". You shouldn't pay a premium just to get "your guy". It's not good value.

 

[bossram]

If you read every post. There are people saying Miller is a third line player. Middle 6 player. Didn't score 20 goals in 3 years which is not true.

He is a legit top 6 winger.

I've literally said that I'm very high on Miller. The issue is that the price paid was too high and a massive risk. No one has adequately assuaged those concerns.

 

[Regal]

So let me get this right, his production was hurt by playing away from their top six while he played more with Stamkos then anyone else, and produced mored when away from Stamkos? (5on5)

No, his numbers were hurt because he didn't play top 6 minutes due to their depth. He played only 14:40 a game. The fact that Stamkos was his most common linemate is irrelevant because he still only played 45% of his time with him and Miller's numbers didn't improve when put together. If a player's rate numbers are essentially the same regardless of where he is in the lineup, and he is playing fewer minutes, arguing that he benefited from his team is a stretch.

 

[Tables of Stats]

No, his numbers were hurt because he didn't play top 6 minutes due to their depth. He played only 14:40 a game. The fact that Stamkos was his most common linemate is irrelevant because he still only played 45% of his time with him and Miller's numbers didn't improve when put together. If a player's rate numbers are essentially the same regardless of where he is in the lineup, and he is playing fewer minutes, arguing that he benefited from his team is a stretch.

There's also the fact that he had roughly the same P/60 this season as he had the two before it 2.59 vs 2.51 and 2.50 and he did those in seasons where he had between 17 and 14:40 minutes of ice-time per game. He's a steady player who'll produce if you give him the minutes to PP time to do so. Projections for this season should have him in the 55 to 60 point range assuming he stays healthy and gets 16 or so minutes per night of ice-time, as well as some PP time.

If he's a top line staple playing 18 minutes per night he could have a career year this coming season.

 

[THE Green Man]

I think this thread should be brought back up around Christmas time, I suspect when Miller is clicking with Pettersson or Horvat and is 2nd/3rd in team scoring, some feelings may have changed.

I somewhat disagree for me I'm going to use scenario and my reaction to said scenario:

1) Make playoffs next year and get bounced rounds 1-2 (not happy because it means we gave up a first but Benning is extended for making playoffs)
2) Make playoffs next year and make it to the WCF (giving up the pick is fine now but Benning will absolutely be extended so still not happy)
3) Miss playoffs next year and make in 2021 (Obviously best case scenario but depending on where that pick falls still somewhat hurts)
4) Miss playoffs both years and give a lottery pick to Tampa no matter where it lands (Obviously worst case scenario so extremely pissed with this one)

For me this was just an unnecessary risk for where we are in our competitive cycle. If the condition was 2020 2nd that turns into the 1st if we made the playoffs I could have lived with that. But unless we go deep in the next 2 years I am not really going to be happy. Even if we go deep next year, I'll be happy with the team success, but Benning will be back so I won't be pleased with that aspect of it.

 

[HankNDank]

What do we have in JT Miller? It looks like a debate that will be going on for the next 4 years on the transaction cost. #GoodTimes

 

[Addison Rae]

The odds he produces 2nd line numbers are very very slim.

Why's that, because Jim Benning didn't acquire him?

He was playing in hard deployment with the Wild, buried in defensive zone starts, playing 13 minutes a night. Vegas finally gave him a chance to play in the top 6 and he scored 30 goals..

Carolina is an extremely good analytic team and he will likely replace Justin Williams minutes if he retires and flourish.

 

[DonnyNucker]

Why's that, because Jim Benning didn't acquire him?

He was playing in hard deployment with the Wild, buried in defensive zone starts, playing 13 minutes a night. Vegas finally gave him a chance to play in the top 6 and he scored 30 goals..

Carolina is an extremely good analytic team and he will likely replace Justin Williams minutes if he retires and flourish.

Yes, I don’t like him because Jim Benning didn’t acquire him.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Looking that the Burakovsky deal this one looks better by comparison. A 2nd, 3rd, and a middling AHL winger for an unsigned player who last scored more than 30 points two seasons ago who's scored more than 15 goals once in his career... I guess he's big and fast but unless he gets back to a 15g 35p scoreline I think I'd keep Virtanen rather than paying Burakovsky $3 million or more per season.

 

[MikeK]

I still like the trade. I know the price paid wasn't what some would have liked, but the player is going to be a great addition to the top 6. If that 1st turns out to be in the 18-20somethign range I think this was a worth while trade.

 

[Canucks1096]

Cap dump trades that happened the last few years

Burakovsky for 2nd and 3rd
Johanssen for 2nd and 3rd
Shaw for two 2nd

Miller is better than all 3 of them. Someone of you think we should of got the trade done with a 2nd and 3rd.

Like I said many many many times, teams that are up against the cap or doesn't make their player have lowet trade value. If you have valuable pieces, you still need to compete with other teams.

 

[CanaFan]

Cap dump trades that happened the last few years

Burakovsky for 2nd and 3rd
Johanssen for 2nd and 3rd
Shaw for two 2nd

Miller is better than all 3 of them. Someone of you think we should of got the trade done with a 2nd and 3rd.

Like I said many many many times, teams that are up against the cap or doesn't make their player have lowet trade value. If you have valuable pieces, you still need to compete with other teams.

But how do those really relate to a trade where the package was a 1st given up by a team that has been in the top 10 four straight years?

Avs 2nd ~ 45 range
Canucks 1st ~ ?? maybe in the 16-20 range in 2020 or who knows if deferred to 2021

How do you compare such drastically differing deals? Burakovaky is essentially a slightly older, more proven Baertschi back when we tossed a 2nd at him.

 

[Canucks1096]

But how do those really relate to a trade where the package was a 1st given up by a team that has been in the top 10 four straight years?

Avs 2nd ~ 45 range
Canucks 1st ~ ?? maybe in the 16-20 range in 2020 or who knows if deferred to 2021

How do you compare such drastically differing deals? Burakovaky is essentially a slightly older, more proven Baertschi back when we tossed a 2nd at him.

I am not saying those trades are Apple vs Apple. Those 3 trades and the Miller trade have this in common, teams was up against the cap and needing to get rid of salaries. Those trades we can use as a guideline

If Miller is better than all of them. All the users saying we could gotten Miller for cheap like a 2nd and 3rd are out to lunch. That is my main point, yes no question that JB overpaid but it is not by much.

If Johanssen gets a 2nd and 3rd. I think it fair to say Miller should be worth a Mid to late 1st and a 3rd. About the 20th pick and a 3rd round pick. If it ends being little higher. In overpaid a little and that's it.

 

[CanaFan]

I am not saying tbose trades are Apple vs Apple. Those 3 trades and the Miller trade have this in common, teams was up against the cap and needing to get rid of salaries. Those trades we can use as a guideline

If Miller is better than all of them. All the users saying we could gotten Miller for cheap like a 2nd and 3rd are out to lunch. That is my main point, yes no question that JB overpaid but it is not by much.

If Johanssen gets a 2nd and 3rd. I think it fair to say Miller should be worth a Mid to late 1st and and a 3rd.

Sure, I guess but there’s so much in between our team’s 1st and a team like Colorado’s 2nd that it’s still hard to narrow it down. Maybe JT Miller could have been had for 2 seconds instead?

Colin Miller just went for a 2nd and a 5th. How do you factor that into the general sense of pricing for things?

 

[Dr Good Vibes]

Millers a good acquisition. I think he’ll play well with our centres, and we really are missing a puck retrieval guy. But we paid too much because he’s not gonna make us a playoff team imo. Bad bad bad, reeks of thirst, did not enjoy. A first? You kidding me? Way too high a price to pay. I want Jim gone.

 

[CanaFan]

I think the issue is that we don’t actually *know* what price we paid. It’s comparable in design to the Leafs giving up 2 1sts sight unseen for Kessel back in 2009. Because those picks became 2nd and 9th it turned out to be a disastrous price and Burke has been reviled for that deal. If the Leafs had improved as they expected and the picks ended up in the 10-15 range, no one would have felt it was out of line for a consistent 30+ goal, 70+ point forward.

The problem is that we don’t know the actual price yet, but the RISK that it turns out to be a too-high price seems substantial to many.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

I am not saying those trades are Apple vs Apple. Those 3 trades and the Miller trade have this in common, teams was up against the cap and needing to get rid of salaries. Those trades we can use as a guideline

If Miller is better than all of them. All the users saying we could gotten Miller for cheap like a 2nd and 3rd are out to lunch. That is my main point, yes no question that JB overpaid but it is not by much.

If Johanssen gets a 2nd and 3rd. I think it fair to say Miller should be worth a Mid to late 1st and a 3rd. About the 20th pick and a 3rd round pick. If it ends being little higher. In overpaid a little and that's it.

Johansson and Miller actually had very similar production the two years before being traded and were the same age. I'd say their value is very close. Miller is worth a high first or, a 2nd + prospect and maybe another pick. He is not worth What could likely be a top 10 pick.