Player Discussion What do we have in J.T. Miller?

[PuckMunchkin]

DeHaan has had four major shoulder surgeries. Benning overpaid for Miller, but the comparison with DeHaan is senseless.

He would be our 4th best D man behind Edler, Hughes and Stecher.

Also the trade doesnt include a potential lottery pick.

I value top 4 D men far above 50p wingers.

 

[Wo Yorfat]

He brings 30-40 ES points, that's Higgins level production. Decent 2nd liner numbers.

If he can give us that level of play I guess it’s a win on the benning scale.
On the gillis scale higgins for a 2nd? was about right, so adjusting that to a 1st and 3rd after the jimbo tax makes sense.

The big concern is it might go the same as every other jimbo signing and the player might disappoint massively. Tough when we consistently pay a premium for below avg performance. Hopefully miller bucks the trend.

 

[bandwagonesque]

He would be our 4th best D man behind Edler, Hughes and Stecher.

Also the trade doesnt include a potential lottery pick.

I value top 4 D men far above 50p wingers.

I'm aware the trade doesn't include a potential lottery pick. You compared the trades as if to suggest the returns for DeHaan and Miller ought to have been similar when this clearly isn't the case, and implying the fact that DeHaan would be a top 4 dman here indicates he'd be one on most teams. I know you're capable of criticizing management in a way that is measured and reasonable. I've seen you do it. What you're doing now is disingenuous and silly.

 

[Blue and Green]

He brings 30-40 ES points, that's Higgins level production. Decent 2nd liner numbers.

Higgins' top three ES points totals were 31, 34 and 35. Miller already has seasons of 39, 40 and 45.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I'm aware the trade doesn't include a potential lottery pick. You compared the trades as if to suggest the returns for DeHaan and Miller ought to have been similar when this clearly isn't the case, and implying the fact that DeHaan would be a top 4 dman here indicates he'd be one on most teams. I know you're capable of criticizing management in a way that is measured and reasonable. I've seen you do it. What you're doing now is disingenuous and silly.

Im not being disingenuous. Silly maybe... but not intentionally.

I believe DeHaan would have brought the Canucks more wins next year than Miller will.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Im not being disingenuous. Silly maybe... but not intentionally.

I believe DeHaan would have brought the Canucks more wins next year than Miller will.

Miller is a really good forward with speed and puck retrieval skills the team basically didn't have last season. DeHaan, who I watched probably a dozen times last season, is in real trouble with his shoulders and doesn't have much going for him but a good first pass. He's tentative below the hash marks and defending the cycle, which is the last thing the Canucks can accommodate on the team this season.

 

[Cogburn]

I think of Miller as a "super-Roussel" or a "super-Hansen". Puck retrieval and forechecking and a bit of a physical edge to go with that 50 point expectation.

I think we overpaid (like a lot of people) but I think we bought Miller from Tampa Bay as opposed to us trying to pick him up because the Lightning were forced to make a move. Callahan is on the IR and they had 11 plus million in cap space before they moved him. So my expectations are tempered but I am excited to see what he can do with Boeser Pettersson and/or Horvat.

 

[VanJack]

Every analyst in the league agrees Miller is a legit top 6 forward. Only benning and Sutters dad thought he was a second line center. You clearly are too lazy or unable to comprehend simple stats. It’s not about being an apologist it’s about being annoyed by your continual simplistic posts. Think before you type

Edit. Sorry if I’m being rude...just seen a lot of these messages. Hate the trade not the player

I don't care what the so-called "experts" around the league are saying about Miller's play in past seasons with the Rangers. Go back and re-read what the guys who watch the Tampa Bay Lightning all season long, game in and game out, were saying about Miller's play..and why John Cooper dropped him down the lineup and basically sidelined him during the playoffs.

If the Canucks Hockey Ops Department were utterly convinced that Brandon Sutter would be a legitimate second line center behind Henrik Sedin, while Bo Horvat had time to mature; and that Eric Gudbranson would immediately jump into their top-four on the blueline, then you'd have to drinking the Canuck cool-aid, to think that somehow they got it right with Miller.

Maybe this time it'll be different. But questioning their assessment on trades isn't 'lazy' just 'healthy skepticism".

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Miller is a really good forward with speed and puck retrieval skills the team basically didn't have last season.

I think I have a pretty good read on what Miller is. Let me know if you disagree somewhere here.

He is going to play with Pettersson / Horvat for all of next season unless something really peculiar takes place.

The questions I feel we need to ask are;
How many points MORE is he going to score than who he is replacing on those lines?
How many more wins should we expect as a result of the added scoring?

My guestimate is ~15 points. I dont know where you fall with this. And that would result in, what, 3 more wins?

To me he really does not move the needle for Canucks.

DeHaan, who I watched probably a dozen times last season, is in real trouble with his shoulders and doesn't have much going for him but a good first pass. He's tentative below the hash marks and defending the cycle, which is the last thing the Canucks can accommodate on the team this season.

I watched Carolina quite a bit this season. They like to show us Sebastian Aho, on saturdays at decent hours so I actually get to watch those games live.
The first thing that I remember about him is that he is always calm and that I dont remember egregious ( I Googled that word ) mistakes. Im not sure if I watched him maybe 8 times last year... something like that. I didnt pay attention to him. I do remember he plays with Faulk who I find is far more prone to brain farts. Maybe this just led me to believe he is the stabilizing force on that pair.

His underlying numbers tell much of the same:

His stats compare favourably, or at the very least similarly to Troy Stetcher who is currently penciled in as our no.3.

I just feel like we are in a position where we needed to take a risk on a player like De Haan rather than risk a lottery pick and Im letting the price cloud my judgment of the entire situation. But I would much rather have a top4 D man for cheap than Miller for what to me was 110% of the price of a player like Miller in a normal trade scenario.

 

[Canucks1096]

Should have countered with two 2nd rounders and they would have gotten the deal done.

A lot of this depends on how Hoglander pans out.

That is your opinion and I respect that. But you don't know that.

 

[ErrantShepherd]

That is your opinion and I respect that. But you don't know that.

Honestly, I don't think two 2nds would have got this done. Late 1st seems about fair-ish value considering production and his value in the package deal from NYR to Tampa previously.

The potential unprotected lottery pick aspect of the 1st is where people have the right to be upset, along with the third and goaltender that went along with it.

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

He needs to put up 60-70 points a season for this to be worth the gamble.

And Hoglander needs to pan out to mitigate the lost 1st round pick.

 

[settinguptheplay]

He needs to put up 60-70 points a season for this to be worth the gamble.

If he puts up 60~70 points this deal is a bargain. It would require a top 10, maybe even top 5, pick to call it a bad deal at that point. Name a youngish 60~70 point player on a 3 year 5.25m dollar, non entry level, contract that a team would trade for a middling 1st and a 3rd. I suspect that list would be pretty small. If Miller can hit 20g 50p consistently for the next 2 or 3 years his trade deadline value would easily recoup what we had to pay out. In fact we could probably get a known quality prospect and a pick at that point. Especially with that contract![/QUOTE]

 

[Addison Rae]

I doubt the worst team in the league over the past 4 years is going to be trading their first round pick for Miller, thus we’re not going to be recouping the same assets back.

 

[settinguptheplay]

I doubt the worst team in the league over the past 4 years is going to be trading their first round pick for Miller, thus we’re not going to be recouping the same assets back.

We won't know that until we know the final price we paid. I am willing to wait and see. But why go back 4 seasons? Because it fits your narrative? The team is drastically different than 4 years ago. Maybe go back 2 years and recalculate. We might still be the worst but at least it would be a bit more relevant. Going back 4 years feels rather arbitrary. Almost like cherry picking stats to prove a point.

 

[Addison Rae]

We won't know that until we know the final price we paid. I am willing to wait and see. But why go back 4 seasons? Because it fits your narrative? The team is drastically different than 4 years ago. Maybe go back 2 years and recalculate. We might still be the worst but at least it would be a bit more relevant. Going back 4 years feels rather arbitrary. Almost like cherry picking stats to prove a point.

The Canucks had the same amount of ROW as the Ottawa Senators last year.

 

[DonnyNucker]

The Canucks had the same amount of ROW as the Ottawa Senators last year.

Do you think they will have the same ROW in 2020 and 2021?

 

[VintageBure]

Do you think they will have the same ROW in 2020 and 2021?

It's actually very possible. If we get the markstrom of pre 2019.

 

[bandwagonesque]

I doubt the worst team in the league over the past 4 years is going to be trading their first round pick for Miller, thus we’re not going to be recouping the same assets back.

That isn't what happened. The team traded a protected 1st that reverts to a 2021 1st if the 2020 pick falls in the lottery.

 

[DonnyNucker]

It's actually very possible. If we get the markstrom of pre 2019.

Don’t see it. The team is stronger and improvement from the core would be enough to push for the playoffs. Also Markstroms numbers are almost identical the last two years.

 

[Tables of Stats]

I think I have a pretty good read on what Miller is. Let me know if you disagree somewhere here.

He is going to play with Pettersson / Horvat for all of next season unless something really peculiar takes place.

The questions I feel we need to ask are;
How many points MORE is he going to score than who he is replacing on those lines?
How many more wins should we expect as a result of the added scoring?

My guestimate is ~15 points. I dont know where you fall with this. And that would result in, what, 3 more wins?

To me he really does not move the needle for Canucks.

Then let's look at this in depth and see what we should expect.

Our top six last season had all kinds of players in and out of it, so let's just slot Miller in alongside Petterson and Boeser replacing their most common linemate with him. Those linemates were Leivo (24.61%) and Goldobin (14.03%) when averaging between both players even strength TOI stats while together. Other line-mates for that pairing don't add up to equal Goldobin's percentage so I ignored them. Leivo scored at a 30 point pace for us last season while Goldobin scored at a 35 point pace. We gave Lievo 15:57 TOI/game last season, so let's give that to Miller instead and see what that works out to.

Miller's last 3 seasons saw him scoring 2.59, 2.51, and 2.50 points per 60 minutes in 14:40, 17:01, and 16:22 TOI per game respectively so it seems like his points per sixty stay consistent even in increased ice time. Plugging the average of those P/60 values into a TOI per game of 16:00 we get an expected points production of 55 over an 82 game season. That's 20 more points that Goldobin and 25 more points that Leivo.

For people concerned with his goal scoring after last season's total, he's usually a 0.985 G/60 player and even with last years average factored in his a 0.89 G/60 player. That translates to a 19g - 36a - 55p season which would make him our 4th best goal scoring winger, as well as our 4th bets, points producer if last season's totals hold true again this season. That bodes well for our top two lines, especially if Pearson can continue the pace he was on over his quarter season with us.

With no assumed growth from Pettersson, Boeser, or Horvat and continuations of their usual paces for Miller and Pearson our top 5 players will be on pace for 76, 69, 61, 55, and 43 points respectively. One of Leivo or Goldobin will likely round out that group though Roussel or Baertschi would both add another 40+ point pace player into our top six if one can match his pace from last season and the other can finally stay healthy for a season. Ideally, we'd look to add another top-six winger to that mix and see some growth from Pettersson and Boeser to really increase how potent our top six is.

As it stands those PPG paces would have our top six sitting at 43rd, 59th, 78th, 100th, and 157th for the 5 players listed with the 6th player likely being around that same range. That's a solid top two lines worth of production if we get a little health and people can play to their careers average levels.

Given all this, I think JT Miller will move the needle a fair bit and make our top six far more respectable this season than it was last season.

 

[me2]

Higgins' top three ES points totals were 31, 34 and 35. Miller already has seasons of 39, 40 and 45.

True but 5v5 Miller has 34, 34, 34 and last year 24. Higgins had basically the same numbers when you adjust for games played/minutes.

 

[settinguptheplay]

True but 5v5 Miller has 34, 34, 34 and last year 24. Higgins had basically the same numbers when you adjust for games played/minutes.

When stats have to be broken down this far it becomes a stretch. Points is not good enough. Pts/60 is not good enough. 5v5 points is not good enough. Do we have to break it down to 5v5 points adjusted for games/minutes played until stats begins to work in ones favour? This is not pointed at you me2 but it is starting to come across as desperation at this point. Miller is a better player than Higgins. That is as far as the debate needs to go.

Also, looking at the Kessel trade I am liking the Miller trade more and more. As long as it does not end up a top 10 pick we did just fine on this deal. We have a real chance of getting a win out of this trade. And yes, I am very aware that Kessel is the far superior offensive player. But he will be 32 by years end and won't get sheltered by 2 of the best C's in the game. His regression will come fast and I will throw an avatar bet that Miller outscores or equals (within 5 points) Kessel by the 20-21 season. Miller already has him beat in every other facet of the game.

 

[sting101]

He needs to put up 60-70 points a season for this to be worth the gamble.

And Hoglander needs to pan out to mitigate the lost 1st round pick.

For real. If you get that from a heavy player in the mid to late 1st round that is a huge win and the odds are not very good.

Tell me between 2015 and 2010 how many players between 16-30 that you would trade Miller for? Thats 90 playersish

 

[Bleach Clean]

When stats have to be broken down this far it becomes a stretch. Points is not good enough. Pts/60 is not good enough. 5v5 points is not good enough. Do we have to break it down to 5v5 points adjusted for games/minutes played until stats begins to work in ones favour? This is not pointed at you me2 but it is starting to come across as desperation at this point. Miller is a better player than Higgins. That is as far as the debate needs to go.

I could not disagree more. You have to show and prove for debates to go anywhere.

What me2 did by outlining Higgins' EVPs is push to quantify the comparison. He is outlining the importance of EVPs. This shows knowledge with advanced metrics. EVPs are more reliable than total points. The latter includes secondary assists and highly variable PPPs. P/60 is also good.

Can you outline why you think Miller is a better player than Higgins while using the methodology of advanced metrics? I'm curious as to how you would break it down.

Lastly: The effect of a player is more important than the perception of a player.