Player Discussion What do we have in J.T. Miller?

[OurlordAndSaviorKuch]

Miller is honestly a great player he is/was a casualty of our cap so we cam keep our core together longer.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

Personally, I find it a bit humourous that so many folks are sure Miller will be a big success here. I bet we could find similar statements about Loui Eriksson - "Well, he probably won't get 60 pts again, but 50 is a lock playing with the Sedins..."

I'm expecting closer to the 40 pt mark, rather than the 60. A crappier team than the ones he's been on, west coast travel, likely an injury along the way (possibly due to the travel wearing out players), the vagaries of coaching decisions, etc.

Yes, I'm a cynical old man who's seen the "incoming saviour" fail many many times before. Hell, just the fact that Benning thinks he's the right man for the job tells me he most likely isn't. Because Benning hasn't hit a pro-scouting homerun yet.

I think it's entirely likely Miller puts up numbers that are comparable if not better than he's done before in NYR and Tampa just because it's a lock he'll be stapled to Pete and Brock. He's absolutely going to get all the icetime, 1st unit PP, and massive offensive zone deployment. He has to. Benning has to get value for him right away. Miller will get buckets and buckets of opportunity. I just hope his cardio's insanely good.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Personally, I find it a bit humourous that so many folks are sure Miller will be a big success here. I bet we could find similar statements about Loui Eriksson - "Well, he probably won't get 60 pts again, but 50 is a lock playing with the Sedins..."

I'm expecting closer to the 40 pt mark, rather than the 60. A crappier team than the ones he's been on, west coast travel, likely an injury along the way (possibly due to the travel wearing out players), the vagaries of coaching decisions, etc.

Yes, I'm a cynical old man who's seen the "incoming saviour" fail many many times before. Hell, just the fact that Benning thinks he's the right man for the job tells me he most likely isn't. Because Benning hasn't hit a pro-scouting homerun yet.

There's only a four year age difference between the two of them at the time they signed... Not to mention that Eriksson was pretty up and down before finding his grove and hitting 63 points in that final year with Boston. Miller's younger and more consistent though he probably won't put up 70 points as prime Eriksson did.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Miller is honestly a great player he is/was a casualty of our cap so we cam keep our core together longer.

Miller is honestly a great player he is/was a casualty of our cap so we cam keep our core together longer.

He is, we are just afraid that we wont be a good team by 2021 therefore give up a potential high pick

 

[Bleach Clean]

I have quoted the above to keep context.

My original point was that stats or advanced stats mean only so much when determining positive outcomes. I never said stats of any sort were a definitive measure. In fact I have said the absolute opposite. You asked me to present evidence using stats that they are not a predictive measure. Which I did. Then once I provided evidence that advanced stats were not a good predictive measure of success you come back at me saying that I am advocating advanced stats as a definitive measure. How can I possibly respond to that? I even bolded the above where you said I was wrong to use stats subjectively. Which means you think they should be used objectively. Yes? Then a post or 2 later you are accusing me of using stats objectively and again said I was wrong. So which is it? You have now accused me of both sides and called me wrong both times.

So let me repeat my original point for clarity. Stats and advanced metrics only tell part of a story. There are obviously other factors involved when determining success. You did not agree with this and asked me to use "data" to support my argument. I then showed why advanced stats are not a good predictive measure of success and you turn around and accuse me of using them objectively. You are the one who asked me to do it. I don't believe they can be used objectively. Which was my point from the beginning.

When you make a statements like: Why isn't Carolina winning the regular season when they are tops in Corsi, you are in fact using advanced metrics as a definitive measure. Effectively, it's: They are the best in metrics so they should be best in league play. They aren't? Well then the metrics must not be predictive then. This shows a clear misunderstanding of advanced metrics and how they are applied.

Let me clarify as well: You cannot say that advanced metrics only tell part of the story and then skip over those chapters when making your case. Describe, if you will, what they are supposed to tell us? This is why I asked you to back up you assertions using the numbers. I wanted to know what you knew of advanced stats before you chose to dismiss them.

Only, when you did, you used traditional stats to back up your claims... Then you went on a tangent that showed an incorrect usage and interpretation of advanced metrics (Tampa/Carolina).

Does that clear things up?

 

[settinguptheplay]

When you make a statements like: Why isn't Carolina winning the regular season when they are tops in Corsi, you are in fact using advanced metrics as a definitive measure. Effectively, it's: They are the best in metrics so they should be best in league play. They aren't? Well then the metrics must not be predictive then. This shows a clear misunderstanding of advanced metrics and how they are applied.

Let me clarify as well: You cannot say that advanced metrics only tell part of the story and then skip over those chapters when making your case. Describe, if you will, what they are supposed to tell us? This is why I asked you to back up you assertions using the numbers. I wanted to know what you knew of advanced stats before you chose to dismiss them.

Only, when you did, you used traditional stats to back up your claims... Then you went on a tangent that showed an incorrect usage and interpretation of advanced metrics (Tampa/Carolina).

Does that clear things up?

Again. I never said advanced metrics had no bearing. I said it only tells part of the story. I am not sure where the divide is here. I also didn't say Carolina should have been the best team. I asked why were they not if advanced metrics were such a defining predictive factor. Remember, you were the one saying advanced metrics are predictive. Not me.

So let me again answer your question.

Describe, if you will, what they are supposed to tell us? They help set probabilities but not definite's. They are a tool to be used but not a bible to live by. One tool in the chest to help ice the best possible team. But they are not infallible. As my Carolina example shows. I actually made the opposite argument to the one you are accusing me of.

When did I use traditional stats? When I said Miller was a better player than Higgins? Sure. Are you trying to say a 70 point forward is a lesser player than a 40 point player with better underlying metrics? Because that is what I hear you saying. Care to explain to me how I misused advanced metrics in my example? The example that clearly stated that the teams with the best metrics were not always the best teams. If advanced stats were predictive Carolina should have been a better team and Vegas should not have had a first round exit.

And no. It most certainly did not clear anything up. Other than the fact you keep moving the goalposts and misinterpreting what I said. You asked me to provide evidence, using stats, to prove what I was saying. And I clearly did that. Then you accuse me of using stats as a definitive? You don't see how circular that is?

 

[canuckking1]

A darn good player

 

[Oliewud]

5pts in 3 games... generational player

 

[Grub]

Still 26 years old to. I think if he keeps this up the trade would be worth it.

 

[deckercky]

Still 26 years old to. I think if he keeps this up the trade would be worth it.

Definitely. If he continues to score at a 136 pt pace for the length of the contract, people will probably think stop criticizing the trade.

 

[Grub]

Definitely. If he continues to score at a 136 pt pace for the length of the contract, people will probably think stop criticizing the trade.

Actually 60-80 points a year is enough.

 

[SillyRabbit]

Just want to point out that we could have got him for a lesser price.

If you bought a brand new car for $20,000 and it's extremely reliable and performs well, it would be worth it.

But if you could've got that exact same car for $10,000 had you just negotiated, you can't turn around and say "yeah well whatever, I still got a good deal, it's totally worth $20k."

While technically true, it ignores the fact that you still overpaid in comparison to what you could've got it for.

 

[Caldercanucks]

Just want to point out that we could have got him for a lesser price.

If you bought a brand new car for $20,000 and it's extremely reliable and performs well, it would be worth it.

But if you could've got that exact same car for $10,000 had you just negotiated, you can't turn around and say "yeah well whatever, I still got a good deal, it's totally worth $20k."

While technically true, it ignores the fact that you still overpaid in comparison to what you could've got it for.

Hes worth a lottery protected 1st. The 2021 draft is gonna suck, so either way there's a good chance that the pick wont be as good as Miller. A lot would have to go wrong for Benning to lose this trade.

 

[sting101]

Just want to point out that we could have got him for a lesser price.

If you bought a brand new car for $20,000 and it's extremely reliable and performs well, it would be worth it.

But if you could've got that exact same car for $10,000 had you just negotiated, you can't turn around and say "yeah well whatever, I still got a good deal, it's totally worth $20k."

While technically true, it ignores the fact that you still overpaid in comparison to what you could've got it for.

This is dumb and bad timing.
Do you have any idea what Boucher would have taken? No you don't.
Benning paid the price before someone else did. Have you ever had those moments when you realized you missed a great opportunity because you wanted to get something really good for stupidly cheap?
Benning gave the asking to get it done. Was funny hearing Burke talking about getting worked for the 1st for Linden. Mcphee just simply said thats the price take it or leave it. Burke paid it.
He's a rock and as long as its not lottery pick we did fine. You hope to get a Miller from a mid 1st.

 

[SillyRabbit]

This is dumb and bad timing.
Do you have any idea what Boucher would have taken? No you don't.
Benning paid the price before someone else did. Have you ever had those moments when you realized you missed a great opportunity because you wanted to get something really good for stupidly cheap?
Benning gave the asking to get it done. Was funny hearing Burke talking about getting worked for the 1st for Linden. Mcphee just simply said thats the price take it or leave it. Burke paid it.
He's a rock and as long as its not lottery pick we did fine. You hope to get a Miller from a mid 1st.

Again you are missing the point.

It's not about whether Miller is worth a 1st round pick, it's about whether he could've been had for less.

Which he could've.

Paying sticker price is nothing to brag about, it's all about getting the best deal you can.

 

[Zippgunn]

Again you are missing the point.

It's not about whether Miller is worth a 1st round pick, it's about whether he could've been had for less.

Which he could've.

Paying sticker price is nothing to brag about, it's all about getting the best deal you can.

How do you know he could have been had for less? Oh that's right, you don't...

 

[CpatainCanuck]

It would be amazing if he had a career year this season with Vancouver. And if he stays on the first line with Petey and Boeser it wouldn't be that surprising.

 

[Canucks1096]

Just want to point out that we could have got him for a lesser price.

If you bought a brand new car for $20,000 and it's extremely reliable and performs well, it would be worth it.

But if you could've got that exact same car for $10,000 had you just negotiated, you can't turn around and say "yeah well whatever, I still got a good deal, it's totally worth $20k."

While technically true, it ignores the fact that you still overpaid in comparison to what you could've got it for.

Yes but Tampa could of sold that car to someone else for 10 grand and not you.

I think people have this mindset if you have cap issues. Automatically your players have lower value. That is not the case, if you have something valuable. Other teams will still bid for it. The cap issues team don't have just one option.

Pretend if you had money issues. Every one knows about it and you have this beautiful watch that a lot of people want. You are not going sell it for cheap even though you are desperate because that watch is valuable and people are going to pay market price for it

 

[Canadian Canuck]

Again you are missing the point.

It's not about whether Miller is worth a 1st round pick, it's about whether he could've been had for less.

Which he could've.

Paying sticker price is nothing to brag about, it's all about getting the best deal you can.

You're missing the point actually. You have zero clue what the asking price was. The price we paid is a very fair deal if Miller gets 55+ points per year. That 1st will be late. Hopefully it's next years first cause it's nothing compared to this years draft. But that would mean we missed the playoffs. I'm fine with giving up a late first for a top 6 winger that can play any position or in any situation.

 

[Sky04]

It would be amazing if he had a career year this season with Vancouver. And if he stays on the first line with Petey and Boeser it wouldn't be that surprising.

He had 4 consecutive seasons of increasing production before last year, he was stagnated because Tampa used him to create a deeper lineup on the 4th line. He should've had 60+ last year in a scoring role, I can easily see him do that this year.

People (Ranger's fans) calling his contract bad are idiots, those 5 years will likely cover his entire prime as big bodied playmaking winger ages 25-30. Said it over the summer but you'd be lucky if that 1st round pick develops into a consistent 50-60 point player.

 

[CherryToke]

Kesler needed a guy like this on his wing back in the day.

 

[Chimpradamus]

Again you are missing the point.

It's not about whether Miller is worth a 1st round pick, it's about whether he could've been had for less.

Which he could've.

Paying sticker price is nothing to brag about, it's all about getting the best deal you can.

If you're the sole negotiatior as a buyer, sure, you have bargaining room and possibly time. But it's not like Miller was some garbage that Tampa had to get rid of. Tampa has been quite open about trading Miller as a pure cap move.

It wasn't exactly a trade for Lucic, whose performance has fallen off a cliff. If you start to hassle and negotiate the price, there's a huge risk Miller would've ended up on another team instead. Miller is a player many teams would like to have on their roster.

Miller wasn't a closed sale, it was more or less an open auction (with some probable input from Miller about preferred locations, of course).
Auctioneer: "And here we have this fine, second hand car, the opening bid is $20k."
SillyRabbit: "$10k."
*ignored by Auctioneer*
Other bidder: "$20k."
Auctioneer: "Going first, twice and third. Sold."

 

[Josepho]

I can't really bring myself to give Benning the benefit of the doubt in a negotiation.

That being said, if Miller puts up multiple 60+ point seasons it's probably the best trade he's ever made.

 

[Luck 6]

Just want to point out that we could have got him for a lesser price.

If you bought a brand new car for $20,000 and it's extremely reliable and performs well, it would be worth it.

But if you could've got that exact same car for $10,000 had you just negotiated, you can't turn around and say "yeah well whatever, I still got a good deal, it's totally worth $20k."

While technically true, it ignores the fact that you still overpaid in comparison to what you could've got it for.

If we're getting technical, there is another way to look at it as well.

I'll use eBay for example. Many items are up for auction, but they also have a "Buy It Now" option where you pay a set asking price to avoid the bidding all together and guarantee yourself acquisition of said item. In this case Benning did not want to risk losing Miller in a bidding war, as any other team may have selected to pay the full asking price (Buy It Now price) at any time and Benning would have been out of luck. There is a chance that Benning could have acquired Miller for less, but in going that route there is also a chance he could be wearing another jersey right now. Hence, Benning decided to pay the price rather than partaking in what would essentially be an auction for Miller.

Now, why he elected to go that route is anyone's guess. It could be desperation to make a move and save his job, many of the more vocal anti-Benning posters have already voiced this opinion. It could also be that Benning saw a much higher upside in Miller and he deemed the asking price as completely reasonable; in this scenario Benning would be basing his value more on what Miller will be this year rather than what he was last year. I personally think it was a certainty that we were going to move a 1st for a player this year or next, it was just a matter of what player we acquired. I am happy that we took a 26 year old forward with upside due to circumstances rather than some of the options we could have went with, and so far it seems to be an excellent fit.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Too soon to assess the trade. I really like Miller but if the pick ends up being a lottery pick it’s a disaster in the making. If we make the playoffs in the next two years then it’s probably a fair deal.