Player Discussion What do we have in J.T. Miller?

[Tables of Stats]

Why must any attempt at improvement come at the expense of a first round pick for a team that's crested 83 points once in 6 seasons. I don't think anybody was inclined for the team not to do anything, that's you creating a false argument to argue with.

Who wants to completely blow it up after this season? People actually want them to turf the bad players and add more goood ones.....again, this doesn't have to come at the expense of 1st round draft picks.

They haven't, under Benning, until now. He thinks that between this free agent period, some pushes from within, and now a trade we'll improve over the next two seasons. I think we can all agree that this should be the case given our top end prospects who should be stepping onto the team shortly. The risk comes from the unexpected but that can happen to any team.

Should no team ever trade a first, let alone multiple firsts, just because there is a risk that they regress after the trade?

 

[Tables of Stats]

It's not my story. It's Ian Mac's story. His tweet says that Benning accepted Tampa's first offer.

Why would I. Mac know this with any certainty?

 

[DonnyNucker]

Why would I. Mac know this with any certainty?

This notion that benning didn’t negotiate at all is the stupidest shit I’ve read on these boards ever. It really is impressive. I’m sure Tampa’s first offer was for a 3rd and a “conditional first’ which is almost certainly going to be in 2021. It’s well known 2020 is an amazing draft. Wonder why Tampa didn’t want a 2020 pick lol

 

[Hit the post]

Should no team ever trade a first, let alone multiple firsts, just because there is a risk that they regress after the trade?

No team should deal a *unprotected* pick that has missed the postseason for four consecutive seasons (and not even be close to a wild card spot).

 

[Tables of Stats]

No team should deal a *unprotected* pick that has missed the postseason for four consecutive seasons (and not even be close to a wild card spot).

So you're saying there's no chance that the arrival of Hughes, Pettersson no longer being a rookie, a revamped defense, a healthier Boeser, the return of Tryamkin, and the addition of a legit top six player isn't going to at least push us towards being a bubble team?

 

[Lindgren]

This notion that benning didn’t negotiate at all is the stupidest **** I’ve read on these boards ever. It really is impressive. I’m sure Tampa’s first offer was for a 3rd and a “conditional first’ which is almost certainly going to be in 2021. It’s well known 2020 is an amazing draft. Wonder why Tampa didn’t want a 2020 pick lol

It's easier to think of stupider posts.

Why do you think I Mac made up his tweet?

 

[4Twenty]

They haven't, under Benning, until now. He thinks that between this free agent period, some pushes from within, and now a trade we'll improve over the next two seasons. I think we can all agree that this should be the case given our top end prospects who should be stepping onto the team shortly. The risk comes from the unexpected but that can happen to any team.

Should no team ever trade a first, let alone multiple firsts, just because there is a risk that they regress after the trade?

What does it matter if they haven't if they just did? Also, I'd argue McCann and 33rd overall is a very similar type of move.

I would say no teams that are out of the playoffs for 4 straight seasons should be trading 1st round picks. I don't understand why that's controversial.

I think the acquisition was rushed, a premium was paid, no negotiation took place.

The improvement didn't have to come through trade. It didn't have to happen when it did.

There are capped out teams, July 1st still to come. They could've waited to see if they could fill the need in free agency without giving up a 1st round pick. JT Miller is a nice player, but he's also not one you pay a premium price for at the time they did in the situation the team is in.

I think players of Miller's ilk are going to shake loose, and I would imagine that no 1st's move for those type of players. We'll have to wait and see.

 

[me2]

This team can't rebuild forever. What are we? The Sabres? Coyotes? Oilers? At some point, you have to stop rebuilding and make a push.

If people here want the Canucks to still be a lottery team in 2021, then we might as well ship out Horvat now because we will have entirely wasted his prime on rebuilding and intentionally.

Hell, if people want this team to completely blow up after this season, then why even bother keeping Pettersson, Hughes, Boesser or any of them? They'd all be out of their prime if the team gets blown up and commits to a full 5-7 year rebuild.

Do people seriously want to see two more years of Pettersson's ELC wasted while trying to tank for high picks? Horvat'a 24 and we have a core group right there and reinforcements a year or two away. It's time to start winning and getting into the post-season.

I think depending on how the defense shakes out, this team can make the playoffs, and once there, all bets are off. We've seen how garbage the supposed top tier teams have been in the post-season.

I was always on team tank and getting high draft picks, but there's a limit, and my line was this season. 2018 had to be the last tank season and the team needs to make use of Horvat's prime and Petey/Hughes' ELCs.

This team never started rebuilding, we got top 10 picks through incompetence.

 

[Lindgren]

Why would I. Mac know this with any certainty?

Maybe he heard it directly from someone in management. He does seem to present their position most of the time. But perhaps he just made it up. But the people who believe that Benning gave up too much and that he didn't negotiate successfully aren't basing that on nothing or just falling into negative prejudice: I Mac's tweet is out there, and numbers of commentators think Miller could have been had for less. That doesn't prove the critics are right: it suggests that their take isn't self-evidently unreasonable and shouldn't just be dismissed because it makes management look bad.

We could go at this endlessly, just as the discussion about the Marcus Granlund acquisition went on endlessly. I'll ask you what I asked earlier: if the Canucks miss the playoffs in both of the next two years, will you think the trade was good or bad?

 

[PuckMunchkin]

That's a possibility for any team that trades a first, are you saying that no team should ever trade a first round pick?

I think the general thought is that a bottom 5 team in the league shouldnt trade a 1st round pick for a middle six winger.

Most people would agree.

Why would I. Mac know this with any certainty?

With Jims trade history is it such a far fetch?

 

[Hit the post]

So you're saying there's no chance that the arrival of Hughes, Pettersson no longer being a rookie, a revamped defense, a healthier Boeser, the return of Tryamkin, and the addition of a legit top six player isn't going to at least push us towards being a bubble team?

Sure and Myers could sign a one year deal for the league minimum in the hopes of cashing it in on his next deal. We’re talking about likely outcomes. There’s a chance you can make more money doubling down on a natural BlackJack as well. No team should be dealing a non lottery protected pick if they’re a bubble team. Revamped D? All I see is one rookie D so far. No Guds or Poulliot for a full season should help but it’s still a mess. Removing those two stiffs is only going to make it less worse.

Yeah some of our developing players will get better. And the foundation of our D will also be another year older. Two guys that were already fragile the season before aren’t going to suddenly become iron men.

 

[Tables of Stats]

What does it matter if they haven't if they just did? Also, I'd argue McCann and 33rd overall is a very similar type of move.

I would say no teams that are out of the playoffs for 4 straight seasons should be trading 1st round picks. I don't understand why that's controversial.

I think the acquisition was rushed, a premium was paid, no negotiation took place.

The improvement didn't have to come through trade. It didn't have to happen when it did.

There are capped out teams, July 1st still to come. They could've waited to see if they could fill the need in free agency without giving up a 1st round pick. JT Miller is a nice player, but he's also not one you pay a premium price for at the time they did in the situation the team is in.

I think players of Miller's ilk are going to shake loose, and I would imagine that no 1st's move for those type of players. We'll have to wait and see.

Look at the current list of free agents and projected free agents. Now show all the 50+ point players that you expect to sign multi-year deals for less than $5.25 million come July 1st.

You imagine there will be multiple 50+ point forwards who can play all three forward positions and take faceoffs at a near 50% win rate available for less than a first... That's a bold prediction.

Maybe he heard it directly from someone in management. He does seem to present their position most of the time. But perhaps he just made it up. But the people who believe that Benning gave up too much and that he didn't negotiate successfully aren't basing that on nothing or just falling into negative prejudice: I Mac's tweet is out there, and numbers of commentators think Miller could have been had for less. That doesn't prove the critics are right: it suggests that their take isn't self-evidently unreasonable and shouldn't just be dismissed because it makes management look bad.

We could go at this endlessly, just as the discussion about the Marcus Granlund acquisition went on endlessly. I'll ask you what I asked earlier: if the Canucks miss the playoffs in both of the next two years, will you think the trade was good or bad?

It's a high price but JT Miller is a good player. He was 65th in P/60 last season, 128th the season before that, and 47th the year before that. That places him solidly as a top-six player and this most recent season shows that he can produce even in limited minutes as long as he gets some looks on the PP and with offensive players mixed in with mucking it up in the bottom six. There's a risk that we can't improve enough to prevent them from getting a lottery pick in 2021 but I'd be happy giving them anything low than a 12th OA and expect that we make the playoffs in one of the two seasons.

Sure and Myers could sign a one year deal for the league minimum in the hopes of cashing it in on his next deal. We’re talking about likely outcomes. There’s a chance you can make more money doubling down on a natural BlackJack as well. No team should be dealing a non lottery protected pick if they’re a bubble team. Revamped D? All I see is one rookie D so far. No Guds or Poulliot for a full season should help but it’s still a mess. Removing those two stiffs is only going to make it less worse.

Yeah some of our developing players will get better. And the foundation of our D will also be another year older. Two guys that were already fragile the season before aren’t going to suddenly become iron men.

Then show where else we could have picked up a JT MIller level play from for cheaper? I know people are balking at his cost but I've seen few suggest a realistic alternative.

 

[ErrantShepherd]

What does it matter if they haven't if they just did? Also, I'd argue McCann and 33rd overall is a very similar type of move.

I would say no teams that are out of the playoffs for 4 straight seasons should be trading 1st round picks. I don't understand why that's controversial.

I think the acquisition was rushed, a premium was paid, no negotiation took place.

The improvement didn't have to come through trade. It didn't have to happen when it did.

There are capped out teams, July 1st still to come. They could've waited to see if they could fill the need in free agency without giving up a 1st round pick. JT Miller is a nice player, but he's also not one you pay a premium price for at the time they did in the situation the team is in.

I think players of Miller's ilk are going to shake loose, and I would imagine that no 1st's move for those type of players. We'll have to wait and see.

What are players of Miller's ilk? Depending on who you view as comparables either makes this an outright bad trade or a pricey trade.

 

[4Twenty]

Look at the current list of free agents and projected free agents. Now show all the 50+ point players that you expect to sign multi-year deals for less than $5.25 million come July 1st.

You imagine there will be multiple 50+ point forwards who can play all three forward positions and take faceoffs at a near 50% win rate available for less than a first... That's a bold prediction.

His salary doesn't really matter to me. It also doesn't need to be less than $5.25m/year. They didn't have to trade a first round pick looking to improve.

You're making a false equivalency with wanting to improve and JT Miller for a first....It didn't have to be that specific player for that cost for improvement. That's the point.

Especially for a team with just 4 core pieces and a one of the worst teams in the league over a 4 year span.

 

[4Twenty]

What are players of Miller's ilk? Depending on who you view as comparables either makes this an outright bad trade or a pricey trade.

2nd line player.

 

[Hit the post]

Then show where else we could have picked up a JT MIller level play from for cheaper? I know people are balking at his cost but I've seen few suggest a realistic alternative.

I’m of the opinion dealing that kind of asset would’ve better served by acquiring a D vs winger. While it’s never a bad thing having a surplus of centers (easier to shift them to wing vs the other way around), C is one area in this organization that isn’t a problem. We were already solid down the middle.

We’ll have to agree to disagree in that I feel the far bigger problem is behind the blue line. Getting a UFA D is going to cost a huge contract likely with trade protection and term.

 

[thekernel]

What are players of Miller's ilk? Depending on who you view as comparables either makes this an outright bad trade or a pricey trade.

With the consistency, versatility (in position and playstyle), and amazing contract, there's not a lot of players like Miller. I view it as a pricey trade, not sure why we overpaid with a friggin 1st when we were doing them a favor BUUUUT I'm really excited for what he'll provide

 

[Tables of Stats]

2nd line player.

A second line player usually doesn't have multiple seasons where they're a top 90 in terms of scoring among forwards. For the record, JT Miller has ranked 108th, 69th, 52nd, 111th in the past four seasons. This season, where he finished 108th he also only played the 221st most minutes among forwards and was ranked 65th for P/60. In the season he finished 111th he was 23 and in his second full NHL season. JT Miller should be considered a mid tier 1st liner not a second liner.

 

[nucksflailtogether]

Heres s scenario it can work out for us:

Canucks make strides but miss next year and jump into lottery pick, make massive improvement in 2021 and make the playoffs where Tampa takes our 20th ish pick. Maybe Benning has a horseshoe somewhere...

 

[Lonny Bohonos]

While a Myers signing would be disastrous. It's all rumours so far and until it happen, I'm not going to lose sleep over media clickbait. If it DOES happen though, I'll be the first calling for Benning and Aquilini's heads for it.

The Luongo contract is a non-issue. The Canucks are not going to eat his cap regardless of when he retires. So far, the NHL has let both the Hawks and Tampa go free of their albatross cap monster. When the time comes, Luongo will conveniently LTIRetire.

Oh like fer sure man.

 

[4Twenty]

A second line player usually doesn't have multiple seasons where they're a top 90 in terms of scoring among forwards. For the record, JT Miller has ranked 108th, 69th, 52nd, 111th in the past four seasons. This season, where he finished 108th he also only played the 221st most minutes among forwards and was ranked 65th for P/60. In the season he finished 111th he was 23 and in his second full NHL season. JT Miller should be considered a mid tier 1st liner not a second liner.

I have a really hard time placing a 50 point player as a middle tier 1st liner, considering 45% of the guys minutes were with a 100 point player.

Low end 1st liner I could maybe see, but certainly not middle tier. And your stats work against you here, if he's top 90 in two years and not top 90 in the other 2 years he's a solid 2nd line player who can move up a lineup.

 

[Tables of Stats]

I have a really hard time placing a 50 point player as a middle tier 1st liner, considering 45% of the guys minutes were with a 100 point player.

Low end 1st liner I could maybe see, but certainly not middle tier. And your stats work against you here, if he's top 90 in two years and not top 90 in the other 2 years he's a solid 2nd line player who can move up a lineup.

He was a second liner in his second full year with the Rangers. This year he was pushed down the line-up on a deep team where he was generally given 3rd line ice time. That he played with Stamkos isn't really relevant when he put up points at the same rate away from him. Miller is a guy who's consistently been a very good P/60 player and who's proven that he can put up points even without playing next to offensively gifted linemates.

He's been a 2.5 P/60 player for the past 3 seasons so if we play him the same minutes as we played Pearson this past season and assume he plays the same 75 games as last season we can expect a 53 point season. If we play him closer to 18 minutes per night he's at a 58 point pace in 75 games. That puts him around the 70th to 80th best scoring forward in the league which is solidly a 1st line player.

He's a steady point producer and should make solid 1st line numbers on our team if he holds to career form.

 

[4Twenty]

He was a second liner in his second full year with the Rangers. This year he was pushed down the line-up on a deep team where he was generally given 3rd line ice time. That he played with Stamkos isn't really relevant when he put up points at the same rate away from him. Miller is a guy who's consistently been a very good P/60 player and who's proven that he can put up points even without playing next to offensively gifted linemates.

He's been a 2.5 P/60 player for the past 3 seasons so if we play him the same minutes as we played Pearson this past season and assume he plays the same 75 games as last season we can expect a 53 point season. If we play him closer to 18 minutes per night he's at a 58 point pace in 75 games. That puts him around the 70th to 80th best scoring forward in the league which is solidly a 1st line player.

He's a steady point producer and should make solid 1st line numbers on our team if he holds to career form.

P/60 isn't linnear. It's not a given that more minutes equals more production.

Agree to disagree, if Miller is a first line player the league has more first line players than first line lineup places.

 

[Tables of Stats]

P/60 isn't linnear. It's not a given that more minutes equals more production.

Agree to disagree, if Miller is a first line player the league has more first line players than first line lineup places.

Miller's put up 2.59, 2.51, and 2.50 P/60 in his last 3 seasons. He did that while playing 14:40 per game, 17:01 per game, and 16:22 per game in those seasons. This is a remarkably consistent player which is why I value him the way I do.

 

[Canucks1096]

I didn’t say they spent up to the cap limit did I though? I said he got the green light from Aquaman to spend to the cap.

Miller is a good player but he’s a complementary player. You expect him and a rookie defenseman to move the needle? I hope your right and I’m wrong because I just don’t see it.

You are using cap space as your argument on why 8 points out of playoffs is not an achievement. My argument is JB didn't use all the cap space. You can't discredit something, that was never used.

Yes to your second paragraph. Regardless whatever you want to call Miller. It is proven he can get 55 to 60 points if he gets top 6 mins. Offensively Hghes is the best D. Maybe second best D behind Edler. That will definitely help.