Speculation: What do the Oilers need to do to take the next step?

[Juxtaposer]

Shattenkirk was only on a 1 year contract, and is no better than Larsson. Shattenkirk is a pure offense defenseman, not the #1 that you are suggesting. Larsson has shown that he can be a top tier shut down defenseman, and has the tools to bring the offense too. Long term I am thinking that Larsson is the better bet by a fair margin.

Serious question, why is it that many on HF consider Seth Jones a future #1, but don't feel the same about Larsson? Both guys fell to be drafted 4th overall after contending for the #1 pick. Neither made a huge impact in their first year. Both have amazing skill sets. Yet to many, Jones is a #1 D in waiting yet nobody considers Larsson that.

Easy answer. Seth Jones has elite offensive tools. This is why he has #1D upside and Larsson doesn't. Simple as that. Larsson at the moment has shown himself to be significantly better defensively but considering that he's two years older than Jones and has played his entire career in New Jersey, a team known for defensive structure (compared to the ****show that was Columbus last season, where Jones had his very first extended stay on a top-pairing), it would be a disgrace if he weren't. Jones is bigger, a better skater, and his offensive toolset is in a different league than Larsson. Defense can be learned; but more importantly than that, you don't need elite defense to be a legitimate #1D. Look at Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, Roman Josi. These players are all quality, above average players defensively to be sure, but they are far from elite defensive players like a Marc-Edouard Vlasic or Victor Hedman. At the end of the day, here's my opinion, going with players I know well: Jones has Brent Burns tools. Larsson has Marc-Edouard Vlasic tools. I love Vlasic and he's an absolutely wonderful player who still is somehow quite underrated. But if you asked me which I would want on my team in a vacuum the answer would be Burns so fast you'd have whiplash. Burns controls the ice; Vlasic, which extremely effective, does not.

In my personal opinion, Adam Larsson just is what he is right now. Just like Sean Couturier. A very good, elite even, defensive player who will contribute offensively, but just doesn't have the offensive upside that was expected when they were drafted. I highly doubt that Larsson is going to become significantly better than he is right now. It's certainly possible but it's not something I would bet on.

Someone in this thread mentioned we need a RWer. Between Eberle, yakupov, Kassian, and Puljujarvi I'd say the Oilers have the best RW depth in the league.

Off the top of my head, Pavelski-Donskoi-Ward-Nieto/Wingels? I'll take that every day over Eberle-Puljujarvi-Yakupov-Kassian.

 

[snipes]

I think you missed the point. Maroon looked just fine on his line despite being an atrocious skater. This belief that McDavid needs to play with a bunch of fast skaters doesn't make a ton of sense because he's as good with possession in the offensive zone as he is off the rush. People also love hyperbole on here like the one stating that Lucic would still be at centre when McDavid has already taken a shot off the rush. No player is that slow skating in a straight line, and Lucic may not be the best skater in the league, but he's not slow. He'll do just fine as the trailer on McDavid's line, especially when you consider that McDavid knows when to change gears to allow his line mates to catch up and find open ice.

How about you let the fans who watch McDavid every game decide what type of player best compliments him. He played his best hockey when Maroon joined his line because he benefits from a player who can keep possession in the offensive zone while getting him the puck to exploit defences.

As for your "out of playoff contention" comment, well I guess you should tell that to Monahan and his 50 point pace before the last 2 months of the season when the flames were out of playoff contention.

This.

A decent number of people who don't watch McDavid regularly think he needs linemates to "keep up with him". He doesn't play as well with a line of 3 speedsters. McDavid matches up best when he has a big power winger on his line. Having guys like Lucic that can play hard on the boards and in the cycle game open up time and space for him. Having a power forward who can crash the net and force defenders in with him also helps open up time and space.

McDavid is above all a playmaker. His hockey IQ and ability to process the game quicker than his peers is the same trait we saw in the generational forwards of the past. Every bit of extra room in the offensive zone helps him do what he's done his whole life.

 

[PhoenyX]

Trade DVDs for sgsttebkurj

 

[Bieber fever]

Add another first overall pick

 

[Fourier]

Easy answer. Seth Jones has elite offensive tools. This is why he has #1D upside and Larsson doesn't. Simple as that. Larsson at the moment has shown himself to be significantly better defensively but considering that he's two years older than Jones and has played his entire career in New Jersey, a team known for defensive structure (compared to the ****show that was Columbus last season, where Jones had his very first extended stay on a top-pairing), it would be a disgrace if he weren't. Jones is bigger, a better skater, and his offensive toolset is in a different league than Larsson. Defense can be learned; but more importantly than that, you don't need elite defense to be a legitimate #1D. Look at Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, Roman Josi. These players are all quality, above average players defensively to be sure, but they are far from elite defensive players like a Marc-Edouard Vlasic or Victor Hedman. At the end of the day, here's my opinion, going with players I know well: Jones has Brent Burns tools. Larsson has Marc-Edouard Vlasic tools. I love Vlasic and he's an absolutely wonderful player who still is somehow quite underrated. But if you asked me which I would want on my team in a vacuum the answer would be Burns so fast you'd have whiplash. Burns controls the ice; Vlasic, which extremely effective, does not.

In my personal opinion, Adam Larsson just is what he is right now. Just like Sean Couturier. A very good, elite even, defensive player who will contribute offensively, but just doesn't have the offensive upside that was expected when they were drafted. I highly doubt that Larsson is going to become significantly better than he is right now. It's certainly possible but it's not something I would bet on.



Off the top of my head, Pavelski-Donskoi-Ward-Nieto/Wingels? I'll take that every day over Eberle-Puljujarvi-Yakupov-Kassian.

I don't disagree that Jones look to have better offensive upside. But you also have to take into consideration what they have been asked to do in comparing Jones and Larsson. One player has been put into very favourable offensive situations 5vs5 the other exactly the opposite. Yet Larsson had as many ES points as Jones last year an over the two previous years has outscored him 38-31 at ES.

Jones looks like a guy with all the tools to be dominant offensively but he has never put up elite numbers at any level. Even with a juggernaut in Portland he did not really dominate offensively. Pouliot for example had a better draft eligible year for the Hawks the year before and was more productive on a per game basis than Jones, who was only 9 months younger, in Jones' one year in the WHL. The Oilers Ethan Bear had better numbers last year than Jones in his draft year and Bear was only 4 months older than Jones at the start of their respective years.

The big question with Larsson is how much more pp time he will get with the Oilers. Being a RHD is an advantage because all of the Oilers centers tend to run the pp off the right hand wall. When I watched NJ last year their pp had only one defenseman and since the puck typically went through Palmieri from the left hand wall a left hander made sense. For the Devils last year during my viewings this was generally Schlemko. If Larsson gets pp time with McDavid he is more than capable of 35-40 points. I think that is far more likely than JOnes hitting totals like Burns or Karlsson.

 

[Otzelor]

The answer obviously is: another first ovr selection.

 

[McShogun99]

Easy answer. Seth Jones has elite offensive tools. This is why he has #1D upside and Larsson doesn't. Simple as that. Larsson at the moment has shown himself to be significantly better defensively but considering that he's two years older than Jones and has played his entire career in New Jersey, a team known for defensive structure (compared to the ****show that was Columbus last season, where Jones had his very first extended stay on a top-pairing), it would be a disgrace if he weren't. Jones is bigger, a better skater, and his offensive toolset is in a different league than Larsson. Defense can be learned; but more importantly than that, you don't need elite defense to be a legitimate #1D. Look at Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, Roman Josi. These players are all quality, above average players defensively to be sure, but they are far from elite defensive players like a Marc-Edouard Vlasic or Victor Hedman. At the end of the day, here's my opinion, going with players I know well: Jones has Brent Burns tools. Larsson has Marc-Edouard Vlasic tools. I love Vlasic and he's an absolutely wonderful player who still is somehow quite underrated. But if you asked me which I would want on my team in a vacuum the answer would be Burns so fast you'd have whiplash. Burns controls the ice; Vlasic, which extremely effective, does not.

In my personal opinion, Adam Larsson just is what he is right now. Just like Sean Couturier. A very good, elite even, defensive player who will contribute offensively, but just doesn't have the offensive upside that was expected when they were drafted. I highly doubt that Larsson is going to become significantly better than he is right now. It's certainly possible but it's not something I would bet on.



Off the top of my head, Pavelski-Donskoi-Ward-Nieto/Wingels? I'll take that every day over Eberle-Puljujarvi-Yakupov-Kassian.

Well Pavelski is one of the top players in the league and is on the ice for just over 1/3 of a game. The only way Edmonton has better RW depth is if JP is as good as advertised and if Yakupov can somewhat reach his potential.

 

[DANOZ28]

just my one cent opinion. edm still has ? mark on their D. maybe with larsson the 245GA drops to 235GA but thats still too high. hall was a leader & fan fav that wont be easy to replace. lucic is a terrific vet addition. i dont see this year edm making the playoffs. positive is GF should rise a bit. what do i think they need? one or two more upgrades on D.

 

[WesMcCauley]

Our current coach did pretty well in his previous job, so I don't think we can use that as an excuse like we could with Dallas Eakins.

You are right though, Larsson might be the guy to develop into a #1. He hasn't shown that he is that yet, although he has shown that he has the tools and a good mind for the game. Whether that comes together as a #1 defenseman remains to be seen, but the smart bet going forward would be to keep searching for that #1 defenseman and consider the rest of the team as:

Larsson - #2
Klefbom - #3
Sekera - #4
Davidson - #5/6
Nurse - #5/6 (until he develops into more)
Fayne - #6
Reinhart - depth (although I think he takes a step forward this year based off of his 2nd half of last season)
Oesterle - depth

That's a #1 defenseman, a year or two of development for the young guys, and Klefbom staying healthy away from being a pretty good defense core.

The problem is that searching is the only thing you can do because you traded the teams 2nd most valuable player for a solid top 4D.... Should have either given Ebs or rnh for someone else or payed up for PK. Edm had the chance of their life to aquire a #1D but just let it slip away... You arent getting a #1 for anyone else than Mcdavid and he isnt exactly tradable

 

[ManofSteel55]

Easy answer. Seth Jones has elite offensive tools. This is why he has #1D upside and Larsson doesn't. Simple as that. Larsson at the moment has shown himself to be significantly better defensively but considering that he's two years older than Jones and has played his entire career in New Jersey, a team known for defensive structure (compared to the ****show that was Columbus last season, where Jones had his very first extended stay on a top-pairing), it would be a disgrace if he weren't. Jones is bigger, a better skater, and his offensive toolset is in a different league than Larsson. Defense can be learned; but more importantly than that, you don't need elite defense to be a legitimate #1D. Look at Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, Roman Josi. These players are all quality, above average players defensively to be sure, but they are far from elite defensive players like a Marc-Edouard Vlasic or Victor Hedman. At the end of the day, here's my opinion, going with players I know well: Jones has Brent Burns tools. Larsson has Marc-Edouard Vlasic tools. I love Vlasic and he's an absolutely wonderful player who still is somehow quite underrated. But if you asked me which I would want on my team in a vacuum the answer would be Burns so fast you'd have whiplash. Burns controls the ice; Vlasic, which extremely effective, does not.

In my personal opinion, Adam Larsson just is what he is right now. Just like Sean Couturier. A very good, elite even, defensive player who will contribute offensively, but just doesn't have the offensive upside that was expected when they were drafted. I highly doubt that Larsson is going to become significantly better than he is right now. It's certainly possible but it's not something I would bet on.



Off the top of my head, Pavelski-Donskoi-Ward-Nieto/Wingels? I'll take that every day over Eberle-Puljujarvi-Yakupov-Kassian.

If you're talking tools, then Larsson has near elite level skating and passing as well, so let's not weave a false narrative that Jones is a far superior offensive player yet. He certainly hasn't put up the points to reflect this sentiment either. Based on what most New Jersey fans have shared with me, I think Larsson is a lot better offensively than anyone on HF gives him credit for. But its hard to put up points on a team with few offensive threats, especially when most of your zone starts are in the defensive zone against the top players of the other team.

 

[ManofSteel55]

The problem is that searching is the only thing you can do because you traded the teams 2nd most valuable player for a solid top 4D.... Should have either given Ebs or rnh for someone else or payed up for PK. Edm had the chance of their life to aquire a #1D but just let it slip away... You arent getting a #1 for anyone else than Mcdavid and he isnt exactly tradable

A "solid top 4" defenseman that played top pair minutes last year against the top competition the other team had every night. It's well known that New Jersey wasn't interested in moving Larsson for Eberle or Nugent-Hopkins, that has been admitted publicly. And "paying up for PK would have guaranteed that we would have been at the bottom of the league for years. They wanted far too much for him. Hall, Draisaitl, Nurse+? No player is worth that. I don't even think PK was really on the table for Edmonton, as we didn't have a replacement #1 D for the Canadiens. That's why they were asking for such an unrealistic price.

 

[Maukkis]

Would love to get Trouba I would think they would want next years 1st as they are set for players and a left shooting dman prospect
2017 1st and Reinhart for Trouba more than fair

We are set for top 4 defensemen. Subtract Trouba, and we aren't.

Klefbom+ or Larsson, otherwise no deal.

 

[DANOZ28]

another ? edm should ask is do you have a PP quarterback? thats another reason i thought dumba would be a good fit , i think he has the potential to be the QB.

 

[Fourier]

another ? edm should ask is do you have a PP quarterback? thats another reason i thought dumba would be a good fit , i think he has the potential to be the QB.

I think McDavid can handle that job.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

If you're talking tools, then Larsson has near elite level skating and passing as well, so let's not weave a false narrative that Jones is a far superior offensive player yet. He certainly hasn't put up the points to reflect this sentiment either. Based on what most New Jersey fans have shared with me, I think Larsson is a lot better offensively than anyone on HF gives him credit for. But its hard to put up points on a team with few offensive threats, especially when most of your zone starts are in the defensive zone against the top players of the other team.

Isn't the bolded actually one of the knocks against Larsson? I thought I remember when Larsson struggled his first few years in the league, and people sort of asked "why is Hedman doing better" the common answer seemed to be Larsson is only an average skater, while Hedman was a great skater.

 

[Chayos]

The Oilers have $9m in cap room and this line up.

Lucic McDavid Eberle
Pouliot Rnh Puljujarvi
Maroon Draisaitl Yakupov
Hendricks Letestu Kassian

Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Fayne
Nurse Davidson

Talbot
Gustuvson


They need to let this lineup run until the trade deadline and trade for a low term elite piece if they are pushing for a playoff spot.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

This.

A decent number of people who don't watch McDavid regularly think he needs linemates to "keep up with him". He doesn't play as well with a line of 3 speedsters. McDavid matches up best when he has a big power winger on his line. Having guys like Lucic that can play hard on the boards and in the cycle game open up time and space for him. Having a power forward who can crash the net and force defenders in with him also helps open up time and space.

McDavid is above all a playmaker. His hockey IQ and ability to process the game quicker than his peers is the same trait we saw in the generational forwards of the past. Every bit of extra room in the offensive zone helps him do what he's done his whole life.

Exactly!!!!!!!!!!!!! I've always felt a line is very successful when they have 1 speedster. 1 middle guy (decently fast and decently big). and 1 big strong slower guy to create space.

 

[rynryn]

Pump the breaks. Larsson isn't elite. Neither is Jones. Oilers don't actually need elite, either, if the D they have can get the puck away from the opposition and give it to their forwards reasonably well. They can definitely be successful in the same way Dallas is right now as the next step. average goaltending, average D, exceptional offense.

 

[KevinRedkey]

All they really need is to stay healthy and a few guys to continue improving (mostly Klefbom and Larsson).

If that happens, I think they are fighting for a playoff spot.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

What I would do:

1. Larsson is starting on a whole new team, partner, and system, Klefbom is a huge unknown because of injury and inexperience and therefore Sekera is desperately needed on the left side. If Fayne starts off poorly again, the Oilers need another option. I'd explore trading Nurse, Davidson, or Reinhart for a similar developed RHD. Maybe add a pick to push things. At least if Klefbom falters, Sekera and Davidson should be able to hold things together in the top-4 while Klefbom/Nurse/Reinhart/etc.. are the bottom pairing. If you move Sekera to the right side and something happens with Klefbom, you can't be having Davidson as your #1 guy on the left.

2.Look at upgrading Gustavsson throughout the season. Can't rely on Talbot to carry the season on his shoulders when the stakes are this high. Jonas Gustavsson is an alright option, but I'd want more of an established guy given the situation.

3. Hall for Lucic might be fairly "lateral" and Purcell for Maroon might be equal, but I don't see an overall upgrade in the Oilers forward moves this year. Overall they need to get tougher to play against they need some more depth. Yakupov is the obvious guy to move. There is absolutely an overpaid two-way RW on someone's roster that could be freed up and would fit the Oilers better than Yakupov. Then I'd spend the season combing through teams looking for another depth RW.

 

[hamzarocks]

Edm needs a top 4 dmen who can qb the pp and is offensively orientated. Despite this I think they make the playoffs next year as the 2nd wildcard. I don't think they become, true contenders until they add a player who can man the pp and give 40+ pts from the back end. Guys like Dumba, Barrie, Fowler(though he isn't that good offensively more of a two way), shatty, Ellis should be targets. The Oilers are deep on the wings with size and skill, have a decent to good defense and a amazing center core. They have drafted better and have players that can become nhlers like benson, jones, and a couple of others down the road. This is the year I think the Oilers end there rebuild and make the playoffs. I hope they deal yak so he can get a new start somewhere else.

 

[Avenger*]

to go from good to great, they first have to become good !



Heard this before, about .. Hall... Yakupov... Nugent-hopkins.... etc....

Go flames.

Fabricated it yourself is more accurate.

 

[oilerbear]

Jones, for me, was partially because he was on Nashville, they are REALLY good at developing dmen. And has shown more offensive upside than Larsson.

Both could become Suter (Larsson), McDonagh (Jones) type #1. I don't see either as a P.K. or Weber type #1.

of the top 299 goal scorers
27 are men who score 212 goals

272 fwds score 3040 goals.

Comparing the level of #9 or #10 Fwd scoring you get from a Dman is a complete waste of time.

Ohhhh barrie is soon much better as a Dman cause he scores like an upper #9 forward as compared to larsson who scores like a bottom #10 forward.

Most on here base the value of Defensemen on the difference in bottom 4 Fwd level of scoring.
LMAO!

Dmen have zero to do with elite scoring in the NHL.
the only 2 above League average in EVG play part of the time as forwards.

the more the puck is away from Dman pocession the better chance a goal will be scored.

so minimal affect on EVGF/60.

But you do know what Defensemen have a Primary affect on?

The DEFENCE of the net.

The reduction of HSC shots that get 75% of the goals.
resulting low EVGA rates.

the #1 D in the game are Dmen who face
1st comp
Defend HSC area low HSCA/60
low SA/60
Top end EVGA/60

there are 15-17 of these Dmen each year.
the best the last 2 years.
A. Larrson

The only offensive ability I want from my D is getting the D..... puck to the 272 forwards who score 93.5% of the goals the top 300 score.

that elite Dmans #10 fwd scoring rate makes such a difference!


Klefbom #28 EVA/60
Larsson #39 EVA/60
that is elite offensive d play.
Pass the d...... Puck!

 

[oilerbear]

75% of the goals in the game come shpts in the HSCA.
1/3 the shots get 75% of goals.
the 2/3 of a game shots that all come from the LSCA get 25% of the goals.
you want the best goalies with HSCA save%.

top 3 HSCA Save% goalies last 3 years.
minimum 1500 attempts.
1. Price .898
2. Talbot .896
2. Griess .896

So you kind of want the best D men at Supressing shots and HSCA shots.

Larsson #1 EVGA D in the game last 2 years.

Davidson was one of 5 D
top 30 HSCA
top 30 EVGA
top 30 PKGA

Klefbom went from to 80 HSCA D to top 60 HSCA D.

Tmac runs a HSCA defensive system.

Has generated a number of top 10 HSCA D.
Vlasic was #1 last year.

Ed media asked if larsson needed to chase offence.

Mac sternly looked at them (with that what a dumb question stare) and said he wanted Larsson to stay
an elite 1st comp Even and Pk shutdown D that was strong in transition passing.
Just like Vlasic.

Can you guess who wanted Larsson?

 

[Crede777]

They need to implement the ancient Roman act of decimation after particularly bad efforts or games.