Speculation: What do the Oilers need to do to take the next step?

[BlueBaron]

Edmonton's needs are very obvious. Leadership and Defense. If they had had better leadership over all this time they may have produced more.

I was not crazy about the Larson trade but it improves their back end, but they need top line D men and fast.

Someone who will hold his team mates accountable and leave everything out on the ice as an example.

Some very effective defensive forwards.

A superior backup.

 

[phlocky]

I'llbe perfectly honest here, I think the Oilers are about half way there. Though they ARE better, the same issues still surround them.

Personally, IMO they still need a top end goalie. I'm not talking about one that is just a legit #1 (ie - bottom 1/3rd of starting goalies, but one who is at least a top 15 and who some could argue is legit top 10). Second, though their defense is improved it's still not legit contender quality. Sorry but as long as you are counting on Klef or Nurse to be on your top pairing your defense is weak compared to other top contenders. Those 2 on the 2nd pairing would be fine, not on of the best 2nd pairings but good enough to be legit contenders. Larsson is a perfect #2 IMO, that means that you still need an elite level #1 dman who is a PMD and can seriously control the game from the back end (see guys like Karlsson, Doughty, Keith, Subban, etc). That's going to be tough to fill.

Last, I like your centers and don't believe they were ever part of the problem. I love Hall and it sucks to lose him but you had to give to get and it is what it is. There's been too much of a loosing attitude in Edmonton and I think too many of your "old school" young players just accept that not and pretty much just mail it in. I'd trade Ebs, I know he can score but I just don't see him having that "give everything, run through a brick wall" attitude you need to take things to the next level. I also wouldn't take the chance of his half added effort affecting guys like McD and Drop (though I think those guys are above letting guys like Ebs effectively make them just mail it in too). Last, I think Yak is pretty much a lost cause. I'd get what I can now for h and wash my hands of that failed experiment.

I know Oilersfans are tired of constantly being in rebuild mode but I think they are actually in a better position now than they have been in years. There seems to actuallybe a plan now and now just throwing **** on the wall (even if it is very good ****) and seeing what sticks. They are one elite level dman away from having that fixed. Maybe they can draft that guy next year. They probably need 1 or 2 more top 6 wings (one elite level with CHARACTER, unlike Ebs) and then their forward corps will be amongst the best in the league.

IMO, 2 more years of drafting well and trading away "poison" is what's needed the most right now. THAT should be your goal. Be patient, you've waited this long, take 2 more years and do it right. Then you'd have a powerhouse for 5-10 years just when the top teams now are on the decline.

The Flyers are in a similar boat though we have our goalie. He may not be elite but his numbers show him to be a legit top 15 and borderline top 10. We have the d prospects and have to be patient for 2-3 years while they mature and can become a powerhouse top 4. We are adding middle 6 forwards through the draft last year and presumably the next 2 drafts to around out the top end forwards we have now. It sucks to not win now but we too just have to be patient. Our window isn'tthis year or next, it'sthe next 5-10 after that.

 

[oilerbear]

The stats you are using as a metric is like the math we learn in grade one. It's elementary. Larsson is considered league wide as a #2 defenseman right now. Luke Scheme was never that outside of GTA

take the top 6 EVG scoring D men in the game.
they score 9+ EVG
for
a total of
70 EVg
between them.

173 Forwards
score 6+ goals
for a total of
2350G

top 179 goal scorers 6/179 3.4% are Dmen.
70/2420 Dmen score 2.9% of the goals.

21 more Dmen score 6-8 Goals for a total of 142G
99 Forwards score 6-8 Goals for a total of 690G
17.5% are dmen
142/832 = Dmen score 17.1% of the goals

of the top 299 goal scorers
27 Are Dmne 272 Are forwards
27/299 9.0% are dmen
212/3252 6.5% of the goals scored at even are form Dmen.

Guess who drives the offence?

Guess how Much I care about Dman's offence?
6.5%

Guess what Dmne need to do when they have the puck?
Pass it as ASAP to the forwards.

When a teams PPGF and PKGA is goal diff is even.

Forwards have to outscore Dmen's EVGA by
.31 EVGF/60
to have a chance at generating 96p
to get in the Wild card playoff spot.

Adam Larsson
ahs taken over Doughty
as the best overall Def D in the game the last 2 years.
15-16

Larsson
Hardest com/zs situation since 05 lockout.
top 40 EVA/60
many say he is one of the quickest reads and outlet passers in the game.
top 10 HSCA D
#9 Sa/60 D
#1 GA D 1.32 EVGA/60
Forwards need 1.63 EVGF/60 to outscore his first comp Defence.
342 Forwards can out score that defensive Play.
all teams top 11 forwards and another 2/5th of teams #12 forwardcan out score teams top line with his defensive play.


schenn:
2.46 EVGA/60
forwards need to generate 3.77 EVGF/60
to outscore his defence.

Some of the worst HSCA D that resulted in being some of the worst
EVGA D in the game
Player - EVGA/60 - EVGF/60 - # forwards that can outscore (3 fwd make a line)
Corrado - 3.34 - 3.65 - 1 of 405 forwards can outscore his defence
R. Pullack - 2.94 - 3.25 - 8/405 can outscore
Nurse - 2.91 - 3.22 - 8/405 forwards
Russel - 2.90 - 3.21 - 9/405 forwards
J. Faulk - 2.90 - 3.21 - 9/405 forwards
M. Rielly - 2.87 - 3.18 - 11 forwards
Giordano - 2.80 - 3.11 - 14 forwards
Reinhart - 2.77 - 3.08 - 16 forwards
Karlsson - 2.73 - 3.04 - 19/405 fwds
Carrick - 2.69 - 3.00 - 23/405
Hunwick - 2.68 - 2.99 - 23/405 outscore
Fowler - 2.59 - 2.90 - 32/405 fwds outscore
D. Hamilton - 2.57 - 2.88 - 35 fwds
Brodie - 2.56 - 2.87 - 35 fwds
OEL - 2.54 - 2.84 - 42 fwds
Subban - 2.48 - 2.79 - 47/405 fwds

 

[oStealthKiller*]

take the top 6 EVG scoring D men in the game.
they score 9+ EVG
for
a total of
70 EVg
between them.

173 Forwards
score 6+ goals
for a total of
2350G

top 179 goal scorers 6/179 3.4% are Dmen.
70/2420 Dmen score 2.9% of the goals.

21 more Dmen score 6-8 Goals for a total of 142G
99 Forwards score 6-8 Goals for a total of 690G
17.5% are dmen
142/832 = Dmen score 17.1% of the goals

of the top 299 goal scorers
27 Are Dmne 272 Are forwards
27/299 9.0% are dmen
212/3252 6.5% of the goals scored at even are form Dmen.

Guess who drives the offence?

Guess how Much I care about Dman's offence?
6.5%

Guess what Dmne need to do when they have the puck?
Pass it as ASAP to the forwards.

When a teams PPGF and PKGA is goal diff is even.

Forwards have to outscore Dmen's EVGA by
.31 EVGF/60
to have a chance at generating 96p
to get in the Wild card playoff spot.

Adam Larsson
ahs taken over Doughty
as the best overall Def D in the game the last 2 years.
15-16

Larsson
Hardest com/zs situation since 05 lockout.
top 40 EVA/60
many say he is one of the quickest reads and outlet passers in the game.
top 10 HSCA D
#9 Sa/60 D
#1 GA D 1.32 EVGA/60
Forwards need 1.63 EVGF/60 to outscore his first comp Defence.
342 Forwards can out score that defensive Play.
all teams top 11 forwards and another 2/5th of teams #12 forwardcan out score teams top line with his defensive play.


schenn:
2.46 EVGA/60
forwards need to generate 3.77 EVGF/60
to outscore his defence.

Some of the worst HSCA D that resulted in being some of the worst
EVGA D in the game
Player - EVGA/60 - EVGF/60 - # forwards that can outscore (3 fwd make a line)
Corrado - 3.34 - 3.65 - 1 of 405 forwards can outscore his defence
R. Pullack - 2.94 - 3.25 - 8/405 can outscore
Nurse - 2.91 - 3.22 - 8/405 forwards
Russel - 2.90 - 3.21 - 9/405 forwards
J. Faulk - 2.90 - 3.21 - 9/405 forwards
M. Rielly - 2.87 - 3.18 - 11 forwards
Giordano - 2.80 - 3.11 - 14 forwards
Reinhart - 2.77 - 3.08 - 16 forwards
Karlsson - 2.73 - 3.04 - 19/405 fwds
Carrick - 2.69 - 3.00 - 23/405
Hunwick - 2.68 - 2.99 - 23/405 outscore
Fowler - 2.59 - 2.90 - 32/405 fwds outscore
D. Hamilton - 2.57 - 2.88 - 35 fwds
Brodie - 2.56 - 2.87 - 35 fwds
OEL - 2.54 - 2.84 - 42 fwds
Subban - 2.48 - 2.79 - 47/405 fwds

"The thing about smart mother ******* is that sometimes they sound like crazy mother ******* to stupid mother *******."

 

[GoldiFox]

take the top 6 EVG scoring D men in the game.
they score 9+ EVG
for
a total of
70 EVg
between them.

173 Forwards
score 6+ goals
for a total of
2350G

.......

Some of the worst HSCA D that resulted in being some of the worst
EVGA D in the game
Player - EVGA/60 - EVGF/60 - # forwards that can outscore (3 fwd make a line)
Corrado - 3.34 - 3.65 - 1 of 405 forwards can outscore his defence
R. Pullack - 2.94 - 3.25 - 8/405 can outscore
Nurse - 2.91 - 3.22 - 8/405 forwards
Russel - 2.90 - 3.21 - 9/405 forwards
J. Faulk - 2.90 - 3.21 - 9/405 forwards
M. Rielly - 2.87 - 3.18 - 11 forwards
Giordano - 2.80 - 3.11 - 14 forwards
Reinhart - 2.77 - 3.08 - 16 forwards
Karlsson - 2.73 - 3.04 - 19/405 fwds
Carrick - 2.69 - 3.00 - 23/405
Hunwick - 2.68 - 2.99 - 23/405 outscore
Fowler - 2.59 - 2.90 - 32/405 fwds outscore
D. Hamilton - 2.57 - 2.88 - 35 fwds
Brodie - 2.56 - 2.87 - 35 fwds
OEL - 2.54 - 2.84 - 42 fwds
Subban - 2.48 - 2.79 - 47/405 fwds

Just to make this clear, you are making the argument that Erik Karlsson is one of the worst defenders a NHL team could possibly have... is that right?

 

[oStealthKiller*]

Just to make this clear, you are making the argument that Erik Karlsson is one of the worst defenders a NHL team could possibly have... is that right?

The error I think he makes is assuming only forwards outscore the evga, he should add in the dmen evgf and see how many forwards can outscore his defence PLUS his offence

 

[vipernsx]

They should rebuild, tank for a while and keep collecting top tier talent through high picks. This has worked for every organization to rise up to be competitive.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Adam Larson Career Stats:

Year GP G A Pts +/-

2011-2012 65 2 16 18 -7
2012-2013 37 0 6 6 4
2013-2014 26 1 2 3 -1
2014-2015 64 3 21 24 2
2015-2016 82 3 15 18 15

Career 274 9 60 69 +13


Luke Schenn

Year GP G A Pts. +/-

2008-2009 70 2 12 14 -12
2009-2010 79 5 12 17 2
2010-2011 82 5 17 22 -7
2011-2012 79 2 20 22 -6
2012-2013 47 3 8 11 3

First 5 Seasons 357 17 69 86 -20


What I was getting at was that Adam Larssons' first 5 years were not much different than Luke Schenn. Luke Schenn is an example of someone drafted high and with great expectations, however did not live up to those expectations. I don't think Adam Larsson will live up to expectations of a #1 defencemen.... Frankly, I don't think I that off base....

For the Oilers' sake, I hope he proves me wrong.

Luke Schenn failed hard because he can't skate. Look at more than the stats page and you will see why the Schenn - Larsson comparison is absolutely ridiculous. Actually watch the 2 players play. Larsson has all of the tool, and the toolbox. He needs to opportunity. New Jersey held him back in a lot of ways for development reasons. Probably a smart move too. But Schenn simply isn't good enough to be an impact player. The same can't be said about Larsson.

 

[oilerbear]

I'llbe perfectly honest here, I think the Oilers are about half way there. Though they ARE better, the same issues still surround them.

Personally, IMO they still need a top end goalie. I'm not talking about one that is just a legit #1 (ie - bottom 1/3rd of starting goalies, but one who is at least a top 15 and who some could argue is legit top 10). Second, though their defense is improved it's still not legit contender quality. Sorry but as long as you are counting on Klef or Nurse to be on your top pairing your defense is weak compared to other top contenders. Those 2 on the 2nd pairing would be fine, not on of the best 2nd pairings but good enough to be legit contenders. Larsson is a perfect #2 IMO, that means that you still need an elite level #1 dman who is a PMD and can seriously control the game from the back end (see guys like Karlsson, Doughty, Keith, Subban, etc). That's going to be tough to fill.

Last, I like your centers and don't believe they were ever part of the problem. I love Hall and it sucks to lose him but you had to give to get and it is what it is. There's been too much of a loosing attitude in Edmonton and I think too many of your "old school" young players just accept that not and pretty much just mail it in. I'd trade Ebs, I know he can score but I just don't see him having that "give everything, run through a brick wall" attitude you need to take things to the next level. I also wouldn't take the chance of his half added effort affecting guys like McD and Drop (though I think those guys are above letting guys like Ebs effectively make them just mail it in too). Last, I think Yak is pretty much a lost cause. I'd get what I can now for h and wash my hands of that failed experiment.

I know Oilersfans are tired of constantly being in rebuild mode but I think they are actually in a better position now than they have been in years. There seems to actuallybe a plan now and now just throwing **** on the wall (even if it is very good ****) and seeing what sticks. They are one elite level dman away from having that fixed. Maybe they can draft that guy next year. They probably need 1 or 2 more top 6 wings (one elite level with CHARACTER, unlike Ebs) and then their forward corps will be amongst the best in the league.

IMO, 2 more years of drafting well and trading away "poison" is what's needed the most right now. THAT should be your goal. Be patient, you've waited this long, take 2 more years and do it right. Then you'd have a powerhouse for 5-10 years just when the top teams now are on the decline.

The Flyers are in a similar boat though we have our goalie. He may not be elite but his numbers show him to be a legit top 15 and borderline top 10. We have the d prospects and have to be patient for 2-3 years while they mature and can become a powerhouse top 4. We are adding middle 6 forwards through the draft last year and presumably the next 2 drafts to around out the top end forwards we have now. It sucks to not win now but we too just have to be patient. Our window isn'tthis year or next, it'sthe next 5-10 after that.

there are 30 Shot sin a game.
19.5 are from low scoring chane area. 0.1 - 8.5% success shots.
10.5 are From high scoring chance area. 8.5% to 20.0 % success hots.

25% of goals come from the 19.5 LSC shots
Perimeter defence of these is largely from forwards.

75% of the goals come from the 10.5 shots in the High Scoring chance area.
the defence of these is largely dependent on Dmen.
the HSCA shots usually very from 7.5 to 13.5 Shots.
you kind of want the Best HSCA D in the game.

You want the best HSCA Save% goalies in the game.
since 75%
of goals come from here.
You want as many of the top 60 HSCA d in the game.

you want as many elite EVGF offensive forward pairs.

1. HSCA goalie save % last 3 years.
Min 1500 HSCA attempts.

1. Price .889
-----------------
2. Talbot; Griess .886
4. Holtby .885
--------------------
5. Halak .882
6. Jones .881
7. Elliott; Allen .880
-------------------
9.Crawford .878
10. Lundquist .877
-----------------------
11. Bernier; Schnieder .874
13. Mrazek .873
----------------------- anything above paired with 3 + HSCA D is conf final caliber
14. Quick; Fluery; Rask Neuvirth .871
18.Lack; Gibson; Varlamov .870
--------------------------------- below is non cup caliber HSCA goaltending.
21. Bishop; Miller .867
24. Lehtonen .866
-----------------------------
25. Khudobin .863
26. F. Anderson .862
Still laugh when I see bernier who had huge HSCA shot volumes in TOR go to ANA and Andersson with a worse save% in THE area going to Toronto.
27. Hutton; Mason; Nabakov; Scrivens .861

2. Top 60 HSCA D
Larsson
1st comp
Top 40 EVA/60
Good at getting the Fwds the puck!
10 HSCA D
#9 SA/60 D
#1 GA/60 D
#12 PKGA D

Davidson
2nd comp
top 30 HSCA D
Top 30 SA/60 D
Top 30 GA/60 D
#5 PKGA D
As he matured under Tmac's HSCA d system.
he faced 1st comp and had his best def D results.
Bob Mackenzies scouts said he would have started on any Playoff teams top 4

Klefbom
1st comp
top 30 EVA/60
good at getting the forwards the puck.
top 60 HSCA D
top 40 SA/60 D
Top 10 PKGA D


Last D man to be top 60 in
EVP/45;
EVA/45;
HSCA/60;
SA/60;
PKGA/60
was
Lidstrom

Sekera when not forced into a 1st comp Dfensive role is a
top 20 HSCA D
top 50 SA/60 D
top 30 GA/60 D

76 gm from this core
Davidson - Larsson
Klefbom - Fayne
Sekera - XXX

3. EVGF forward Pairs;

Mcdavid 3.36 EVGF/60 #3 fwd
Lucic 3.15 #12 Fwd
Lucic - Mcdavid - XXX

pouliot 2.84
Eberle 2.81
RNH 2.61
Pouliot - RNH - Eberle

Maroon 2.64
Draisatl 2.60
Maroon - Draisatl - XXX


T. Beck 2.70 w/ Offensive forwrds
Kassian 2.20
Puljujarvi

 

[Hally BlackWood]

I think they should start the season with what the got see how it goes. If things go great and they look like there one dman away from making a big jump then consider trading assets for another dman. Everyone is looking to build team right now cause its the offseason. Wait for the season to start and find the teams that are near the bottom looking to make changes. I think they can get more bang for the buck if they do that. Who knows a team struggling to score might consider trading a solid veteran dman for yak and pick if there just looking to shake things up.

 

[oilerbear]

Just to make this clear, you are making the argument that Erik Karlsson is one of the worst defenders a NHL team could possibly have... is that right?

Karlsson is year to year.

His Norris year he was a top 20 HSCA D.
forcing players to the perimeter
and
most deserving of the Norris.

This year yes.
He was on of the worst Def D in the game.

Dmen skating up the puck.
abandoning The defence of his own HSCA.

Allowing the opposition to
Set up the defence of Zone entry
and
Defence of HSC area.

Leaving HSCA shot penetration in there own zone cause of procession loss counter attack.

this is terrible defence that results in a goalie facing 13.5 HSCA shots in a game instead of 7.50 HSCA shots.

Nurse was the perfect example.
he made all kinds of off zone sorties.
hardly ever penetrated the HSC area.
and
was often chasing a counter attack from behind.
which lead to free paths to his own HSC area.
I want the young Dman I saw at WJ.
Defended the HSCA and outlet passed ASAP.

Forwars driving the net score on average .65 EVG/60
Dmen Driving the net Scotre on avg .17 EVG/60

Who do you want driving the play.

Giordano and brodie had great Offensive numbers last year for a dman.
Brodie 29 EVp #4 D
2.79 GF/60
2.56 GA/60
+.23 GD/60
you have to outscore by .31 EVGD to have a shot at playoffs.

Giordano 28 EVP #5 D
2.52 GF/60
2.80 GA/60
-.28 GD/60

When you get that standard of D you have to start to think about THE cap hit to break even!

 

[McFlyingV]

The same Patrick Maroon who put up these godly numbers?

GP 220 G 34 A 59 PTS 93 +/- -2 PIMS 283

He played very well for 16 games with Mcdavid, after they were elminated from playoff contention. Joe Colbourne went on a PPG pace for the last 18 games of the season and was literally let go. April hockey doesnt matter when there is no June hockey.

He will no doubt make any player better, but i dont see Lucic being a fit. Who knows

I think you missed the point. Maroon looked just fine on his line despite being an atrocious skater. This belief that McDavid needs to play with a bunch of fast skaters doesn't make a ton of sense because he's as good with possession in the offensive zone as he is off the rush. People also love hyperbole on here like the one stating that Lucic would still be at centre when McDavid has already taken a shot off the rush. No player is that slow skating in a straight line, and Lucic may not be the best skater in the league, but he's not slow. He'll do just fine as the trailer on McDavid's line, especially when you consider that McDavid knows when to change gears to allow his line mates to catch up and find open ice.

How about you let the fans who watch McDavid every game decide what type of player best compliments him. He played his best hockey when Maroon joined his line because he benefits from a player who can keep possession in the offensive zone while getting him the puck to exploit defences.

As for your "out of playoff contention" comment, well I guess you should tell that to Monahan and his 50 point pace before the last 2 months of the season when the flames were out of playoff contention.

 

[KidLine93]

Pittsburgh has had 3

The timeline overlap between Lemieux and Crosby was perfect.

Sucks Jagr isn't a penguin anymore. He will probably outlast Crosby for all we know

 

[GoldiFox]

Karlsson is year to year.

His Norris year he was a top 20 HSCA D.
forcing players to the perimeter
and
most deserving of the Norris.

.....

Shouldn't it be a red flag to you that within your key metric, one of the universally-recognized best defenders in the game could swing from top-20 to bottom-20 in one year? Karlsson didn't re-define his game in one offseason, he was #2 in Norris voting this year.

Occam's razor would say that HSCA just isn't a very good metric for making definitive statements about a defenseman's ability. Too volatile.

 

[McFlyingV]

80pt seasons

Hall: 1

Lucic: 0

Points per game

Hall: 0.86

Lucic: 0.68

It's something called context.

Points per game is great and all when you want to argue how good a player is when healthy, but the fact is Lucic hasn't missed more than 3 games in a season in his previous 6 seasons, while Hall has missed almost 20% of the games in his 6 seasons in the NHL. So unless someone on the farm can come in and produce at that same ppg as Hall when he's not in the lineup then it would appear Lucic may very well be just as effective in terms of point production.

 

[KidLine93]

I'llbe perfectly honest here, I think the Oilers are about half way there. Though they ARE better, the same issues still surround them.

Personally, IMO they still need a top end goalie. I'm not talking about one that is just a legit #1 (ie - bottom 1/3rd of starting goalies, but one who is at least a top 15 and who some could argue is legit top 10). Second, though their defense is improved it's still not legit contender quality. Sorry but as long as you are counting on Klef or Nurse to be on your top pairing your defense is weak compared to other top contenders. Those 2 on the 2nd pairing would be fine, not on of the best 2nd pairings but good enough to be legit contenders. Larsson is a perfect #2 IMO, that means that you still need an elite level #1 dman who is a PMD and can seriously control the game from the back end (see guys like Karlsson, Doughty, Keith, Subban, etc). That's going to be tough to fill.

Last, I like your centers and don't believe they were ever part of the problem. I love Hall and it sucks to lose him but you had to give to get and it is what it is. There's been too much of a loosing attitude in Edmonton and I think too many of your "old school" young players just accept that not and pretty much just mail it in. I'd trade Ebs, I know he can score but I just don't see him having that "give everything, run through a brick wall" attitude you need to take things to the next level. I also wouldn't take the chance of his half added effort affecting guys like McD and Drop (though I think those guys are above letting guys like Ebs effectively make them just mail it in too). Last, I think Yak is pretty much a lost cause. I'd get what I can now for h and wash my hands of that failed experiment.

I know Oilersfans are tired of constantly being in rebuild mode but I think they are actually in a better position now than they have been in years. There seems to actuallybe a plan now and now just throwing **** on the wall (even if it is very good ****) and seeing what sticks. They are one elite level dman away from having that fixed. Maybe they can draft that guy next year. They probably need 1 or 2 more top 6 wings (one elite level with CHARACTER, unlike Ebs) and then their forward corps will be amongst the best in the league.

IMO, 2 more years of drafting well and trading away "poison" is what's needed the most right now. THAT should be your goal. Be patient, you've waited this long, take 2 more years and do it right. Then you'd have a powerhouse for 5-10 years just when the top teams now are on the decline.

The Flyers are in a similar boat though we have our goalie. He may not be elite but his numbers show him to be a legit top 15 and borderline top 10. We have the d prospects and have to be patient for 2-3 years while they mature and can become a powerhouse top 4. We are adding middle 6 forwards through the draft last year and presumably the next 2 drafts to around out the top end forwards we have now. It sucks to not win now but we too just have to be patient. Our window isn'tthis year or next, it'sthe next 5-10 after that.

Klefbom was great until his staph infection. Nurse might not make the opening lineup on the left side. Definitly not counting on him to be our #1 D

 

[McFlyingV]

Depends what one means by "top line forward",

Oilers fans should be hopeful Lucic puts up 50 points. Which is comfortable too 6 territory

Hopeful for 50 when he just put up 55 in LA? Yeah, I like his chances of matching or surpassing that if he's playing with Connor McDavid. Kopitar is a 2-way monster, but his offensive game simply isn't what McDavid's is currently and what it projects to be in the coming years. Same goes to Carter, hell of a player and a great goal scorer, but offensively he's still no McDavid.

 

[oStealthKiller*]

Shouldn't it be a red flag to you that within your key metric, one of the universally-recognized best defenders in the game could swing from top-20 to bottom-20 in one year? Karlsson didn't re-define his game in one offseason, he was #2 in Norris voting this year.

Occam's razor would say that HSCA just isn't a very good metric for making definitive statements about a defenseman's ability. Too volatile.

Or that he decided to cheat more offensively this year? Not saying he abandoned defence, but that he thought focusing more on offence would help the team and it impacted his defence

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Should've traded Hall (or RNH) for Subban

 

[paulhiggins]

Get rid of the suits that caused the mess and keep the ones who haven't had a chance to fix it yet.

 

[awegrzyn]

Quote:
Originally Posted by awegrzyn View Post
Depending on Puljujarvi, this season Oilers team may be weaker than last season.
Missing 5 more players to become contenders.
Really?

If we start this season with everyone healthy for opening night this will be the comparable rosters from last years opening night.

Last Year
Pouliot-Nuge-Purcell
Hall-McDavid-Slepyshev
Korpikoski-Lander-Yakupov
Hendricks-Letestu-Klinkhammer

Sekera-Fayne
Klefbom-Schultz
Reinhart-Gryba

Talbot
Nilsson


This Year
Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
Pouliot-Nuge-Puljujarvi
Maroon-Draisaitl-Yakupov
Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian

Klefbom-Larsson
Davidson-Sekera
Some combination of Nurse/Reinhart/Oesterle/Fayne

Talbot
Gustavsson

Really.
You never noticed Draisaitl and Eberle who played 72 and 69 games last season?

They need 2 amazing D. That is a start. Adam can be 4th or maybe 3rd depending on his power play performance.

They also need 3 amazing forwards. Then they would become contenders.

I also think they need money, and a psychiatrist. They are in a mental depression. They need some small success to change their mental state. Ironically, P.K. Subban provided that.

The boat has sailed for them. They won't have another number 1 D knocking at their doors anytime soon. Stupid if you ask me. Who wants to build a play offs team? If you are going to try, you may as well try big, and build a contender. P.K and McDavid was that start, and they could build around that.

 

[smackdaddy]

Shouldn't it be a red flag to you that within your key metric, one of the universally-recognized best defenders in the game could swing from top-20 to bottom-20 in one year? Karlsson didn't re-define his game in one offseason, he was #2 in Norris voting this year.

Occam's razor would say that HSCA just isn't a very good metric for making definitive statements about a defenseman's ability. Too volatile.

I question of you even understood those metrics because they aren't debatable... they're facts. Just because you don't want to believe that abandoning your post as a dman to stack your stats leads to high scoring chance oppornities isn't his fault

 

[JuniorNelson]

Oilers need elite goaltending. This is stating the obvious because every team needs elite goaltending but Edmonton can become a Cup contender if they get elite work from Talbot.

To be in position to use a hot Talbot, they need to add defense. Wisniewski is no bigger gamble than Gustavsson. Other options can be explored. It's not too late.

I think they need a different head Coach. I think the team has changed enough that a different guy might be needed.

 

[thadd]

We need a right handed puck moving d-man. Not a lefty because we've got too many lefties.

I don't see the trade coming this year. I saw sign Wiz. If he gets hurt and only plays a single period this year we're still better now than we were last year and Davidson and Klefbom stay healthy we're a hella ton better than last year.

Klefbom-Larsson
Davidson-Sekera
Reinhart-Wiz
Fayne

So you go with that this year and move one of Eberle or Hopkins next off-season for a legit top 4 puck moving d-man so that we can be even better. If we're moving Hopkins then we're obviously also looking for a solid 3rd line center.

Moving Eberle would be troublesome because although he seems to be overpaid he's got the skills to slot in well on a scoring line. I could easily see Eberle traded by the time his contract ends, though.

So if we sign Wiz and go with what we've got and if we don't suffer any more key injuries that most of the other teams out there I'm convinced that we're easily 10th in the west. Even if Wiz sucks we can be 10th in the west. Even if Wiz breaks something and we're going with Fayne and Osterle on the 3rd pairing right side we can get 10th in the west.

But... if Klefbom and Davidson can show us that they can find yet another level beyond the impressive play they showed last year.... we're going to the playoffs.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Goalie and defense.