News Article: What did the Senators get out of trading EK65

[Xspyrit]

Just wrt staying consistent;

We traded our 1st round pick to Col at a time when most outside sources had predicted we would miss the playoffs or be a bubble team.

We traded Karlsson to SJS, at a time when they were coming off a 100pts season and most saw them as a lock to make it again.

While it's certainly reasonable to be willing to give credit to Dorion for predicting SJ's decline, the situations of SJ and OTT were far from the same so to call people out for inconsitently applying credit or blame is imo unfair.

For example, if you took out all your retirement savings and spent it on scratch and win tickets and lost everything, i wiuld probably tell you that you should have known better to do that, where as if you invested it in an low risk long term investments that wildly underperformed I'd have more empathy. Conversly, i wouldn't praise you if the lottery tickets happened to win big (assuming you hadn't crunched the numbers to prove there was a statitical probability that they would).

Tldr; it's not inconsistent to treat situations differently when the circumstances differ, and imo the circumstances of those two trades do so.

Now, Dorion does deserve some credit for insisting that the pick not be protected, assuming that the reports he did are true, that doesn't mean he didn't get lucky though.

I don't pay a lot of attention to "outside sources", particularly when it comes to standings predictions... The Sens came very close to reach the SCF and beating the eventual champs. I saw the Duchene acquisition as a significant upgrade on Turris. Problem was the other holes in the line-up and never replacing Methot, MacArthur and also Phaneuf, Anderson and Ryan as they declined.

Personally, I observed that teams fate change a lot quicker than it used to. Not saying I am Nostradamus or anything but before the season I talked about the Sharks eventual decline. I didn't think they would be as bad but any team missing the playoffs can win the lottery.

I'm not saying Dorion did or did not do this, who knows what he had in mind? I am not "calling out people", I am just saying that if you criticized the lost pick, you also have to give credit where it's due.

You can't just based your blame/credit on your own expectations. Personally, I thought the Sens would do much better in 2017-18 and I also thought the Sharks wouldn't do that well in 2019-20 so it's possible that I was an outlier but it doesn't change the outcome. I don't see why blame/credit shouldn't be given solely based on people's own expectations.

Of course, there's always some luck involved, so maybe they got a bit lucky with the SJ trade but also unlucky with the Colorado one. Doesn't matter, it's a results business. Dorion gambled with Duchene and lost but then gambled again with SJ and won.

And I didn't even know about Dorion insisting for the pick to not be protected, so I guess I'll give him a bit more credit for that.

 

[JD1]

We need to give up on the weather angle

What percentage of hockey players come from warm climates? Not many

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

I'm not saying Dorion did or did not do this, who knows what he had in mind? I am not "calling out people", I am just saying that if you criticized the lost pick, you also have to give credit where it's due.

I'd disagree with this. The process was bad in both places — giving up an unprotected 1st in a year where we were widely predicted to take a tumble down the standings, and acquiring a first from a widely-seen-as-contending team as one of the cornerstone pieces for our two-time Norris winning defenceman and the face of the franchise. It has worked out so far, and I give Dorion some credit for it panning out on paper — with results still indeterminate on the ice. But I don't think it's a logically inconsistent perspective to criticize the process in both instances.

 

[Xspyrit]

I'd disagree with this. The process was bad in both places — giving up an unprotected 1st in a year where we were widely predicted to take a tumble down the standings, and acquiring a first from a widely-seen-as-contending team as one of the cornerstone pieces for our two-time Norris winning defenceman and the face of the franchise. It has worked out so far, and I give Dorion some credit for it panning out on paper — with results still indeterminate on the ice. But I don't think it's a logically inconsistent perspective to criticize the process in both instances.

OK but like I said, personally I don't care much about "wide predictions". I have seen so many of those predictions being wrong for decades. I envisionned the Sens to make the playoffs after reaching the ECF and upgrading Turris to Duchene. On the roster, there was Karlsson, Stone, Duchene, Hoffman, Ryan, Brassard. Dzingel, Pageau, Chabot, Anderson... there was some serious talent on this team but also several holes, weak goaltending/coaching and players declining so it became the exact opposite of a perfect storm. I also foresaw a Sharks decline on the horizon

I would also hope that Dorion is not using the "wide predictions" to make his decisions... And just by looking at the way they draft, they do not seem to care at all. Remember, hockey is not an exact science, there is no concensus, only opinions.

Also, I find it weird to read the Sens were "widely predicted" to do badly. I seem to remember Sens fans being quite confident in their team, not like a clear cut contender but at least like a playoffs team. Might have to dig an old thread or two...

But anyway, like I answered to Micklebot, in the end it's the results that count and Colorado ended with our 4th OA pick and we ended with the Sharks 3rd OA. If we say that Dorion misjudged his team for 2017-18, I don't know why you wouldn't say that Wilson misjudged his team for 2019-20.

For me it just doesn't compute.

PS : Karlsson injuries have been concerning for a while. As a big Karlsson fan, I have been concerned with this since Matt Cooke. IMO, he never looked the same after that. Sure, he was still incredibly good but he would have been truly generationnal if only it didn't happen. The "playoffs injuries" just made him drop another level so he's not elite anymore. I'm still holding hope that he can go back to his previous level.

 

[Sweatred]

We need to give up on the weather angle

What percentage of hockey players come from warm climates? Not many

Ya, who wants to live in California, Vegas, or Tampa …. plus all the extra sun screen you have to buy practically cancels out the tax advantage.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

OK but like I said, personally I don't care much about "wide predictions". [snip because long post]

That's cool! Different strokes for different folks. I'm just saying, your initial statement...

As I said, you have to be consistent with your criticism. If you criticized Dorion for "gift wrapping" a lottery pick to Colorado, then you have to praise him for getting one from the Sharks...

...doesn't hold to scrutiny if we accept that consistency in this is entirely subjective based on circumstances, the value each individual places in predictions and the value each individual places in process vs. results. I view the way I interpret these trades to be consistent with one another, so I don't agree with your premise.

 

[Sweatred]

We need to give up on the weather angle

What percentage of hockey players come from warm climates? Not many

Dallas, Florida, California and Nevada have the largest tourism economies in the US and are collectively worth about $480 million per year vs Ontarios $30 million. People like warm weather... especially when they are from cold climates.

 

[BatherSeason]

Dallas, Florida, California and Nevada have the largest tourism economies in the US and are collectively worth about $480 million per year vs Ontarios $30 million. People like warm weather... especially when they are from cold climates.

Other than Pietrangelo, looks like this year's free agency crop is an exception to your rule.

Buffalo, St. Louis, Calgary, Montreal, Ottawa were the cities chosen by 4 of 5 of the top UFAs according to NBC Sports. Not exactly cities that help your argument.

NHL Power Rankings: The top 2020 NHL Free Agents

 

[Sweatred]

Looks like this year's free agency crop is an exception to your rule.

NHL Power Rankings: The top 2020 NHL Free Agents

OK, I give up... your right. People don't like warm weather. Krug proves that. See you in Alaska over the holidays.

 

[BatherSeason]

OK, I give up... your right. People don't like warm weather. Krug proves that. See you in Alaska over the holidays.

Its ok to be wrong about something.

 

[umma gumma]

OK, I give up... your right. People don't like warm weather. Krug proves that. See you in Alaska over the holidays.

He has a point though. It seems the climate isn't as much a factor as you make it out to be. Most of those free agents signed in places that don't particularity a hot and sunny climate.

 

[Sweatred]

He has a point though. It seems the climate isn't as much a factor as you make it out to be. Most of those free agents signed in places that don't particularity a hot and sunny climate.

Hey, if you think Ottawa is a top destination for 27 year old multi millionaires than great. I'm sure there is a history of player beating down our GM's door to sign here.

 

[Silencio]

We need to give up on the weather angle

What percentage of hockey players come from warm climates? Not many

Not saying weather isn't a consideration, but if it was as big a factor as some people think the Red Wings would have never signed any UFAs. Doubt too many players (or their wives) dream of living in Detroit in January.

 

[Sweatred]

Not saying weather isn't a consideration, but if it was as big a factor as some people think the Red Wings would have never signed any UFAs. Doubt too many players (or their wives) dream of living in Detroit in January.

I bet they don't .. But I would say there are tiers of destinations and OTT,CAL,EDM, and WPG are in the bottom tier slightly a head of BUF, MIINN, DET type teams. We are far from NYR, TB, ANA, LAS, LA, etc let alone NASH, CHI, PHY, WASH type cities. There is a net flow of player movement and it flows away from us.

Ottawa may the least fun city in the league, shopping is bla, dinning is limited, housing is "middle class". Our private schools are fairly limited, and there just isn't a lot in Ottawa beyond safety, government jobs, and affordability.

 

[Silencio]

Other than Pietrangelo, looks like this year's free agency crop is an exception to your rule.

Buffalo, St. Louis, Calgary, Montreal, Ottawa were the cities chosen by 4 of 5 of the top UFAs according to NBC Sports. Not exactly cities that help your argument.

NHL Power Rankings: The top 2020 NHL Free Agents

I wonder if Vegas would have had as easy a time attracting free agents if they were the laughingstock of the league that everyone predicted before the inauguaral season. I'm sure the weeather and amenities would help, but free agents weren't exactly beating a path to sign with the Clippers before Kawhi (different city and sport I know).

 

[Silencio]

I bet they don't .. But I would say there are tiers of destinations and OTT,CAL,EDM, and WPG are in the bottom tier slightly a head of BUF, MIINN, DET type teams. We are far from NYR, TB, ANA, LAS, LA, etc let alone NASH, CHI, PHY, WASH type cities. There is a net flow of player movement and it flows away from us.

Ottawa may the least fun city in the league, shopping is bla, dinning is limited, housing is "middle class". Our private schools are fairly limited, and there just isn't a lot in Ottawa beyond safety, government jobs, and affordability.

Ottawa's food scene is underrated, some the best meals I've ever had came from restaurants in and around the city. But I do see your point.

 

[umma gumma]

Hey, if you think Ottawa is a top destination for 27 year old multi millionaires than great. I'm sure there is a history of player beating down our GM's door to sign here.

Pretty sure Matt Murray is 26 and a multi millionaire. No, not a UFA, but we don't trade for him if he has no intention of living in Ottawa for the foreseeable future.

No one ever said Ottawa was a top destination. Stop moving the goalposts.

 

[Sweatred]

No one ever said Ottawa was a top destination. Stop moving the goalposts.

Its not moving the goal posts .. There are comments like this all over the place.

"@JD1 said: We need to give up on the weather angle"

all over this forum and they all diminish the reality that "many" players (like EK, MD, MS) don't want to be here and somehow our EL-Cheepo owner had everything to do with them leaving. The reality is "many" players choose to go elsewhere because they can choose from 29 other teams with brighter lights or whever. Our limited revenue base is one of the reasons players leave, but there are a bunch of others. EK didn't leave because of $$.

It isn't a bid deal. If I had to make a choice between living in New York or Las Vegas I would make that choice. Players do that too and there are probably 20+ destinations most would prefer over Ottawa. It makes it hard to sign players who control their destination.

 

[GCK]

San Jose took their shot and missed. I dont hold that against them. They made the deals they needed to make for Vlasic, Burns, JT, Logan, and EK with hopes of winning it all. They were close for years, even lost in the finals against prime Crosbys.

No shame in that. It will be a gradual rebuild as their farm system is mostly shot. Its a great hockey city though and theyll have success in the future.

I would imagine most people think Wilson trading for EK was a great move, it’s the bad extension where the debate begins.

 

[Xspyrit]

That's cool! Different strokes for different folks. I'm just saying, your initial statement...


...doesn't hold to scrutiny if we accept that consistency in this is entirely subjective based on circumstances, the value each individual places in predictions and the value each individual places in process vs. results. I view the way I interpret these trades to be consistent with one another, so I don't agree with your premise.

All good if you find you were consistent in your criticism. Keep in mind all of this is pretty subjective so it doesn't matter much in the end. I am still making that point so at least people can ponder about it. You know it's like the good news threads that just reach a few pages while the negative news get talked ad nauseam. It's the same principle here and it reflects on society in general and how negative it is. That's why medias focus on bad news rather than "feel good stories". People have not much to say about the good stuff.

Consumers in general are pretty hard to satisfy, it's a very "tough crowd" and hockey fans are no different. Don't forget, there's also a lot of emotional attachment with Karlsson. IMO, the end result is still the same : a 4th OA is gone (but got back the 19th OA pick by trading Duchene) and a 3rd OA pick was acquired. The first move was an attempt to improve the team, the other was the result of a GM put in a very bad spot by the owner but still managed to get a top-3 pick out of it (on top of other assets)

Personally I still think it deserves as much praise and it deserved criticism, if not more considering the contexts.

 

[umma gumma]

Its not moving the goal posts .. There are comments like this all over the place.

"@JD1 said: We need to give up on the weather angle"

all over this forum and they all diminish the reality that "many" players (like EK, MD, MS) don't want to be here and somehow our EL-Cheepo owner had everything to do with them leaving. The reality is "many" players choose to go elsewhere because they can. Our limited revenue base is one of the reasons players leave, but there are a bunch of others. EK didn't leave because of $$.

These comments exist because you're the only one that ever brings it up.

I mean, Dadonov came from the exact situation you repeatedly claim every player wants to be in, to one none of them want. How did this happen?

 

[BatherSeason]

Its not moving the goal posts .. There are comments like this all over the place.

"@JD1 said: We need to give up on the weather angle"

all over this forum and they all diminish the reality that "many" players (like EK, MD, MS) don't want to be here and somehow our EL-Cheepo owner had everything to do with them leaving. The reality is "many" players choose to go elsewhere because they can choose from 29 other teams with brighter lights or whever. Our limited revenue base is one of the reasons players leave, but there are a bunch of others. EK didn't leave because of $$.

It isn't a bid deal. If I had to make a choice between living in New York or Las Vegas I would make that choice. Players do that too and there are probably 20+ destinations most would prefer over Ottawa. It makes it hard to sign players who control their destination.

EK, MS wanted to be here. Pretty sure that there was even a Brent Wallace tweet confirming this. Funny that they both spend their off-seasons here, and also spend a lot of time together.

 

[GCK]

Nice place to live with a family and a 9/5 job... Not a destination that 20year multi millionaires are eager to buy into and call home.

If you pay them they will come. Honestly, Hall just signed in Buffalo, not for Lake effect snow, the ugly women, the fine dining at anchors, the high taxes or even to win. He signed because they gave him 8M when no one else would.

 

[Sweatred]

If you pay them they will come. Honestly, Hall just signed in Buffalo, not for Lake effect snow, the ugly women, the fine dining at anchors, the high taxes or even to win. He signed because they gave him 8M when no one else would.

Okay, your right. Destination of choice isn't a factor. I'm going to go buy a holiday package to a random city.

 

[BatherSeason]

Okay, your right. Destination of choice isn't a factor. I'm going to go buy a holiday package to a random city.

But these players aren't going for a "holiday", they are going to work. Dude, time to move along , the goalposts can't move much more.