Buffalo Bills Week 5: Bills v. Steelers (Sun. 10/9, 1:00PM)

[Jim Bob]

I think we should stand pat at WR unless Davis' injury is to the point where he should rest AND McKenzie is likely to miss some time.

Shakir and Hodgins should be OK enough to get by the Pittsburgh game if needed, and grab someone else off the street. Don't see the need for a permanent addition YET.

OBJ isn't an option as he's nowhere close to healthy. If we need a veteran slot guy -- TY Hilton would make a ton of sense if he's healthy. Willie Snead/Will Fuller/DeSean all make sense if we need a long-term deep threat.

Outside the box idea: Sign Jared Cook. Can play in-line or the slot. Could confuse defenses, even if he's not the best blocker.

But I think I stand pat at WR unless McKenzie is out for a bit.

DeJax would be an intriguing option that could also give Gabe Davis some time to rest up and let the ankle heal up...

 

[brian_griffin]

Just dropping in this thread real quick to say that Baltimore's failed 4th and goal is the poster child for analytics gone wild. Harbaugh's post game explanation was a prime example of going so far into the weeds and overthinking the simple, that you can't grasp the obvious when it's staring you in the face.

I'm quite pleased via schadenfreude of the result, but damn already...when will coaches get off the analytics train when it's running off the tracks and over a cliff???

My understanding is the analytics favor going for it in a tied game, but the difference is only 4%.
But analytics don't consider situation of the particular game - who is playing whom, weather, status of injuries, individual players, positional matchups, etc.
Considering the situation, I believe the right thing to do was to go for it, because the probability of scoring a TD was decent.
The probability of a Tucker FG was likely 99% or so.
A miss FG or a missed TD put the ball with BUF essentially backed into their end zone.

It wasn't until pages into the debate that the two salient points were noted:
1) The end zone interception & touchback was the only adverse outcome on that play other than a defensive score.
2) The particular Ravens play call on the 4th down was a poor one. Lamar should have had an RPO or similar playcall to have him moving parallel to the goal line with options. No one in this thread really touched on that until @Ace about 6 pages in.

You fail 3 or 4 times and put your team in a terrible position, or take the lead every time and give your good defense a chance.

The analytics don't matter because it's throwing common sense out the window. In that setting you take the lead and put the game in the hands of your players. It was dumb. Tell me that's the right call when it's the SB.

Scenario A) Kick the FG and take the lead by 3 points with 4:10 remaining, then kick off to the Bills, most likely giving the Bills the ball between the 10-20 yard line ("short" kickoff) or at the 25 yd line (touchback), assuming they don't kick it out of bounds and give it to the Bills at the 35. Bills have 4:10 remaining and 3 time outs plus the 2:00 warning to drive ~38-53 or more yards for a tying FG, and with the knowledge they will have 4 plays per set of downs they will use to attempt that.

Scenario B) If the Ravens do not score the TD and the game remains tied the Bills take possession at the 7-foot (2 yard, 1 foot) line, they need to drive 61+ yards for a tying FG, and will likely use 3 plays per set of downs, content to punt on 4th down on most sets of downs to keep the score tied at 20 and play for OT.

going for it on 4th down is putting the ball in the hands of one of the best QBs in the league

Agreed, but the play call seemed strange.

Congrats to Bills "legend" Jim Leonhard for being named Interim Head Coach of the Wisconsin Badgers!!

Wisconsin fires Chryst, names Leonhard interim

Wisconsin has fired coach Paul Chryst, and defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard will serve as interim coach for the remainder of the season.

www.espn.com

I saw that name on the ESPN crawl, and I thought that was the former Bill...

Today was the first time in Bills history they won a game the didn’t lead until the final play

I'll take it, especially after the MIA game last week.

So are we going to be seeing Kenny Pickett's first start next week?

I think they should start Pickett and use Trubisky as a defensive aid to the Steeler coaches given his time in BUF last season.

We don’t actually need to wonder what would have happened. They drove down the field quickly to kill clock at the 1. They purposely stopped themselves at the 1 to kill the clock. Of course they’d have gotten 7 if they needed it. Going for the TD wasn’t only the right call on paper…it was proven right over the next 4 minutes.

Exactly!!!!!

Agreed. If they kicked the FG then we scored the TD, everyone would criticize them for not going for it. It was a bad play call that’s really what should be criticized

Exactly!!!!

As pissed as I was at halftime, you always have that glimmer of hope in the back of your mind especially after finally punching one in.


How long is Davis hobbled though. Just give the guy a few damn days off of full practice and let him heal up.

Ankle sprains are rough to recover.
We assume he is already given the time off in practice during the week just to be able to be at 80-85% on the ankle.

 

[brian_griffin]

I think we should stand pat at WR unless Davis' injury is to the point where he should rest AND McKenzie is likely to miss some time.

Shakir and Hodgins should be OK enough to get by the Pittsburgh game if needed, and grab someone else off the street. Don't see the need for a permanent addition YET.

OBJ isn't an option as he's nowhere close to healthy. If we need a veteran slot guy -- TY Hilton would make a ton of sense if he's healthy. Willie Snead/Will Fuller/DeSean all make sense if we need a long-term deep threat.

Outside the box idea: Sign Jared Cook. Can play in-line or the slot. Could confuse defenses, even if he's not the best blocker.

But I think I stand pat at WR unless McKenzie is out for a bit.

I assume Crowder will go to IR and likely come back once healed.
Bills should comb the practice squads of other teams in addition to other avenues.

 

[Zman5778]

Totally forgot that Tavon Austin is on our practice squad. There's our slot guy if McKenzie can't go.

Diggs-Hobbled Davis-Shakir-Austin-Hodgins-someone should be good enough to beat the Steelers.

 

[SundherDome]

I assume Crowder will go to IR and likely come back once healed.
Bills should comb the practice squads of other teams in addition to other avenues.

Don't forget Tanner Gentry!

 

[misterchainsaw]

My understanding is the analytics favor going for it in a tied game, but the difference is only 4%.
But analytics don't consider situation of the particular game - who is playing whom, weather, status of injuries, individual players, positional matchups, etc.
Considering the situation, I believe the right thing to do was to go for it, because the probability of scoring a TD was decent.
The probability of a Tucker FG was likely 99% or so.
A miss FG or a missed TD put the ball with BUF essentially backed into their end zone.

Actually, a missed FG puts the ball at the 20 or at the spot of the kick (~7 yards behind the LoS), whichever is more advantageous to the team that didn't miss the kick.

Obviously not a very likely scenario, but you can't back your opponent up with a missed FG.

 

[sabres4ever]

I will not be satisfied unless we give picksburg a 41-10 or better drubbing.

 

[brian_griffin]

Actually, a missed FG puts the ball at the 20 or at the spot of the kick (~7 yards behind the LoS), whichever is more advantageous to the team that didn't miss the kick.

Obviously not a very likely scenario, but you can't back your opponent up with a missed FG.

Thanks for the correction, which again favored going for it instead of kicking.

Going for it was the correct call, especially when putting the ball in Jackson's hands. But they should have a better play call.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Keep eating, kid!



Do they sit him for Jackson when Tre is back?!

 

[Tsujimoto]

I will not be satisfied unless we give picksburg a 41-10 or better drubbing.

Long-range forecast looks nice for Sunday. 58°, maybe light showers. Certainly not the horrid conditions they've played in the last 2 weeks. A good day for the offense to bounce back.

 

[Jim Bob]

Keep eating, kid!



Do they sit him for Jackson when Tre is back?!

When they get healthy, they might be the deepest CB room in the league.

 

[kirby11]

Keep eating, kid!



Do they sit him for Jackson when Tre is back?!

Bills are really the DBU of the NFL

 

[SundherDome]

Thanks for the correction, which again favored going for it instead of kicking.

Going for it was the correct call, especially when putting the ball in Jackson's hands. But they should have a better play call.

They play call was even good, Duvernay was WIDE open in the back, the pressure up the middle destroyed the play. Lawson started the pressure with a great rush and then Rousseau came in on the other side, forcing Lamar to lob it.

 

[Mike McDermott]

So looking at the season in quarters (as best as possible with 17 games), I think 3-1 in the first quarter was a realistic expectation, though Miami wasn't the game I though we could possibly lose.
So the next three quarters are:
Pitt, KC, Bye, GB, NYJ
Minn, Cle, Det, NE
NYJ, Mia, Chi, Cinn, NE

The 2nd quarter of the remaining 3 is the hardest but at worst I see us come out of that at 2-2 but 3-1 isn't unrealistic. Minnesota is the only game that gives me any pause in the 3rd quarter. Maybe a little worried about Detroit with how their offense has looked but they also have NO defense currently so I think we can beat them. We should come out of those games 3-1. The final 5 games, between us (hopefully) being healthy, and having all the early season kinks worked out, there is little that scares me in those games as we sit today. I think the team comes out "for blood" vs Miami after what happened in week 3. Cincinnati might worry me come that time, but as they sit today, I'm not worried about them. I think we can come out of those games at 5-0 (if we need the final game to secure 1st) or 4-1 (if we beat KC and will have the tie breaker at 12-5)

If we go to the worst case in the next 4 games at 2-2, then 3-1, then 5-0 or 4-1 we finish at 12-5 or 13-4. Which gives us the East and the AFC 1 seed. I know a lot can happen and even with the injuries and mistakes I am still confident we are looking good to have the road to the AFC championship run through Buffalo, in January and that is a big hill to climb for most any team.

Here is to hoping I am correct.

 

[Dirty Dog]

So looking at the season in quarters (as best as possible with 17 games), I think 3-1 in the first quarter was a realistic expectation, though Miami wasn't the game I though we could possibly lose.
So the next three quarters are:
Pitt, KC, Bye, GB, NYJ
Minn, Cle, Det, NE
NYJ, Mia, Chi, Cinn, NE

The 2nd quarter is the hardest but at worst I see us come out of that at 2-2 but 3-1 isn't unrealistic. Minnesota is the only game that gives me any pause in the 3rd quarter. Maybe a little worried about Detroit with how their offense has looked but they also have NO defense currently so I think we can beat them. We should come out of those games 3-1. The final 5 games, between us (hopefully) being healthy, and having all the early season kinks worked out, there is little that scares me in those games as we sit today. I think the team comes out "for blood" vs Miami after what happened in week 3. Cincinnati might worry me come that time, but as they sit today, I'm not worried about them. I think we can come out of those games at 5-0 (if we need the final game to secure 1st) or 4-1 (if we beat KC and will have the tie breaker at 12-5)

If we go to the worst case in the next 4 games at 2-2, then 3-1, then 5-0 or 4-1 we finish at 12-5 or 13-4. Which gives us the East and the AFC 1 seed. I know a lot can happen and even with the injuries and mistakes I am still confident we are looking good to have the road to the AFC championship run through Buffalo, in January and that is a big hill to climb for most any team.

Here is to hoping I am correct.

I think the first quarter is definitely the hardest! The second quarter you get Pitt and NYJ…both of which are worst than any team we played in the first quarter by far. greenbay isn’t any better than LA or Baltimore

But good post!

 

[valet]

So looking at the season in quarters (as best as possible with 17 games), I think 3-1 in the first quarter was a realistic expectation, though Miami wasn't the game I though we could possibly lose.
So the next three quarters are:
Pitt, KC, Bye, GB, NYJ
Minn, Cle, Det, NE
NYJ, Mia, Chi, Cinn, NE

The 2nd quarter is the hardest but at worst I see us come out of that at 2-2 but 3-1 isn't unrealistic. Minnesota is the only game that gives me any pause in the 3rd quarter. Maybe a little worried about Detroit with how their offense has looked but they also have NO defense currently so I think we can beat them. We should come out of those games 3-1. The final 5 games, between us (hopefully) being healthy, and having all the early season kinks worked out, there is little that scares me in those games as we sit today. I think the team comes out "for blood" vs Miami after what happened in week 3. Cincinnati might worry me come that time, but as they sit today, I'm not worried about them. I think we can come out of those games at 5-0 (if we need the final game to secure 1st) or 4-1 (if we beat KC and will have the tie breaker at 12-5)

If we go to the worst case in the next 4 games at 2-2, then 3-1, then 5-0 or 4-1 we finish at 12-5 or 13-4. Which gives us the East and the AFC 1 seed. I know a lot can happen and even with the injuries and mistakes I am still confident we are looking good to have the road to the AFC championship run through Buffalo, in January and that is a big hill to climb for most any team.

Here is to hoping I am correct.

GB is not good. I’d expect 3-1 in the second quarter at bare minimum. 4-0 is 50/50 cause you never really know who’s gonna win when it’s Bills vs Chiefs. I do think we have a better roster than them, for the record

 

[SundherDome]

Brandin Cooks would be a great get if Houston would let go of him for a mid round pick. He plays all the spots and give depth and dangerous 4 wide sets.

 

[Mike McDermott]

I think the first quarter is definitely the hardest! The second quarter you get Pitt and NYJ…both of which are worst than any team we played in the first quarter by far. greenbay isn’t any better than LA or Baltimore

But good post!

I agree that on the season as a whole the 1st quarter is the hardest, my point was of the remaining 3 the 2nd is the hardest, and I've edited my original post to clarify.

GB is not good. I’d expect 3-1 in the second quarter at bare minimum. 4-0 is 50/50 cause you never really know who’s gonna win when it’s Bills vs Chiefs. I do think we have a better roster than them, for the record

Yeah Green Bay doesn't worry me crazy hard, but it is SNF and Rodgers on the other side. I know he doesn't have a ton of weapons but I'm not to a point that I can totally count out a team he is QB for, especially with some of the bone headed mistakes we've been making. I think 3-1 is very doable and should be what happens, but 2-2 wouldn't be the end of the world. If we are to lose a game in the 2nd quarter of the season, I want us to beat KC and lose to GB simply because of conference records and head to head. That being said, if we keep our head out of our ass, 4-0 isn't out of the question but I'm certainly not expecting it.

 

[Buffalo Norsemen]

 

[misterchainsaw]

I wouldn't expect him to be ready week 5. Back when they first put him on IR the word from the coaching staff was that it wouldn't be fair to him to just drop him back into the fire, and that he was going to need a bit of practice time to get re-acclimated. I think the KC game is the absolute best case scenario, and that the most likely scenario is GB after the bye, especially if he's not quite ready to practice yet.

 

[Mike McDermott]

 

[Dingo44]

Lazy bust

 

[Mike McDermott]

Not surprised, between how bad he looked after on Thursday and the fact that if they let him play after being "cleared" again, they would have been flayed and eviscerated on live TV after all the (deserved) crap they got for him returning to our game and playing on Thursday.

 

[Mike McDermott]

So are we going to be seeing Kenny Pickett's first start next week?

Reports are saying yes

 

[Zman5778]

Reports are saying yes

Oh, that's going to be a problem.

For Pittsburgh. And for Pickett.