Speculation: Weber's Contract

[DomBarr]

lol . that's cute . will see how that plays out . close to 8 million in cap space for three years is now worth nothing . WRONG

If Weber is going to actually retire as opposed to Ltire then I believe Nashville is hit with recapture regardless so why would they give Montreal anything as there is no benefit to them

 

[DomBarr]

There is only 1 team that potentially could use Weber's LTIR space in season and that is Vegas. Anything else is an offseason deal.

 

[Habs Halifax]

ithink in the new CBA they modified LTIR rules.

previous the rules were with a LTIR like Savard in Boston. A team needed to have ELCs or camp PTOs where they sent ELCs down, then on season day 1 they put savard on LTIR thrn call up ELCs or give a contract to the camp PTO against that LTIR space.

with Toronto…they waited to sign Marner against 2 LTIRs but they had to wait till season day 1

it appears now they don’t have to do those gymnastics….coukd have been a change in LTIR rules.

the problem is that it’s 4 yrs after this year

all GMs will say they plan on their team being a playoff team by the last year of Weber contract.

if it was just 2 yrs left you can find takers on rebuilding teams

for example for buffalo…

in 22/23 season they need to bring in about $15M gain in contracts from trades, UFA, or resigning Olofsson. But the need is short term.

in summer 2023 they have RFAs in Cozens, Thompson, and a few others
In summer 2024 they have RFAs in Mittlestadt, Krebs, Dahlin, Jokiharju, possibly Power.
In summer 2025 they could have a few other young players
in summer 2023 they have UFAs in Girgensons and Okposo.

the contracts signed by RFAs could easily be a $20M increase on their salary cap. They will want to be shoppers adding new pleases in trade/UFA. Weber contract could screw that up in summers 2023-2025

I don't believe the LTIR rules were changed to make it easier. Basically, if you are approaching the season and are over the cap, you place the contract on LTIR before the season starts and then you are under the cap or "cap compliant" for a better wording (cause you are forced to). But this has consequences to accrued cap space and deferred potential ELC performance bonuses to the following season.

Look at Tampa, they have basically zero cap space and nothing accrued during the season cause they were forced to move Seabrook to LTIR before the season started. Good news for them for the potential ELC performance bonuses cause they have none. The basically were able to trade Johnson and that's the only reason why taking on Seabrook made sense to them. They rather deal with the Seabrook contract where they are limited to make deadline moves vs trading a 1st to unload Johnson.

The only team that makes sense to trade for Weber's contract is the Coyotes. Other situations like the Tampa/Johnson/Seabrook might pop up but those are rare.

In your Marner example, he signed Sept 13th so not sure of who the Leafs still had as LTIR contracts and how much they were under the cap. I don't recall the exact context back when and it's hard to check past season. At least I can't see that on Cap Friendly

The only negative to the Habs with Weber is if we have plans to spend to the max cap this summer and are forced to move his contract to LTIR before the season starts (again). I think they avoid that to be honest

 

[CamPopplestone]

the last couple years he's due 1 million . he might make 1.5 million as a team exec . would al result in an offer from nashville no ?

Or he could just do both, considering the NHL has already set precedent by allowing Pronger to work another position while LTIRetired

 

[Djp]

I don't believe the LTIR rules were changed to make it easier. Basically, if you are approaching the season and are over the cap, you place the contract on LTIR before the season starts and then you are under the cap. But this has consequences to accrued cap space and deferred potential ELC performance bonuses to the following season.

Look at Tampa, they have basically zero cap space and nothing accrued during the season cause they were forced to move Seabrook to LTIR before the season started. Good news for them for the potential ELC performance bonuses cause they have none. The basically were able to trade Johnson and that's the only reason why taking on Seabrook made sense to them. They rather deal with the Seabrook contract where they are limited to make deadline moves vs trading a 1st to unload Johnson.

The only team that makes sense to trade for Weber's contract is the Coyotes. Other situations like the Tampa/Johnson/Seabrook might pop up but those are rare.

ELC bonuses are not something teams worry about unless it’s a high profile draft picks joining the team that could actually trigger the bonuses. Only a few players do.

as I said under the LTIR rules teams needed ELC players to go against the LTIR player. Boston had them at the time of savard. They ended the ELCs Boston had to move savard. I think one of those ELCs was Krug.

they made a change which allowed tampa to handle LTIR without ELCs. They coukd just put a pkayer on LTIR in the summer and they stay there without needing to do the roster gymnastics. They still count for cap overage purposes and any roll over to next year.

 

[McPhees Moustache]

No one will be 7.89m below 60.2m so that mythical need for help to reach the cap floor won’t be a thing.

You don't think Arizona will fall into this category? They are only at 38.5M for next year with 12 roster spots to fill and moving into a smaller arena for a minimum of 3 years while already maxed out on revenue sharing. All this before potentially dealing Chychrun away to be replaced with even more league minimum salary players.

Not pretending there's any value in the contract but I'd be very surprised if Arizona wouldn't entertain taking this on for next to nothing.
They seem quite committed to the tank again next year and this would allow them to ice an even worse roster while still meeting the cap floor

 

[Habs Halifax]

There is only 1 team that potentially could use Weber's LTIR space in season and that is Vegas. Anything else is an offseason deal.

Explain your context into why you think this makes sense for Vegas? Cause basically the cap ceiling is increased but it's also reduced by his cap hit yielding a zero difference in actual cap space. Disagree? Please explain your context then

 

[Habs Halifax]

ELC bonuses are not something teams worry about unless it’s a high profile draft picks joining the team that could actually trigger the bonuses. Only a few players do.

as I said under the LTIR rules teams needed ELC players to go against the LTIR player. Boston had them at the time of savard. They ended the ELCs Boston had to move savard.

Teams like Tampa would worry about it cause they are up against the cap year to year now with that core. Maybe we are talking $1M max in many cases but right now, Tampa don't have $1M in cap space and it's likely to continue until the cap rises again.

With your Bruins/Savard situation, I'm not fully aware of past rules. But I do think I have a good understanding of the rules today. Accrued cap space during the season is affected if you move a contract to LTIR before the season starts. And ELC performance bonuses are automatically deferred to the following season. The latter might not matter to some teams but it does to others. It's a circumstantial thing

 

[Habs Halifax]

nothing

Fast forward to the 23/24 season where Weber might retire (3 season left at $1M like many of us are saying) and the Preds have 9 players under contract with about $33M in cap space. Subtract Forsberg's new contract and Weber's cap hit and it's about $16M in cap space left with 10 players signed? How much higher will the cap be for 23/24? Guess work but lets say at best the Preds have $20M in cap space with 13 players to sign?

A lot of unknown factors to try to project forward so not sure it's a simple "nothing" answer. You want it to be that way but you may or may not be right. It's not as simple as that though

The other thing to consider is if the Preds spend in UFA this summer. Do they want a rebuild or are they going to try to remain competitive? Any moves that puts them tight against the cap moving forward, can have consequences if Weber retires after next year. Brush that under the rug if you wish but that is not just some no problems at all type narrative.

 

[DomBarr]

Explain your context into why you think this makes sense for Vegas? Cause basically the cap ceiling is increased but it's also reduced by his cap hit yielding a zero difference in actual cap space. Disagree? Please explain your context then

Vegas is right at the cap and they currently have Stone and Martinez on LTIR and do not have the cap room to bring them off without trading contracts . Acquiring Weber's 7.9M LTIR would enable Stone to come off LTIR if his back is "better".

Even next season Vegas is currently at $82.3 M in cap hits with 15 players signed.

 

[DomBarr]

Fast forward to the 23/24 season where Weber might retire (3 season left at $1M like many of us are saying) and the Preds have 9 players under contract with about $33M in cap space. Subtract Forsberg's new contract and Weber's cap hit and it's about $16M in cap space left with 10 players signed? How much higher will the cap be for 23/24? Guess work but lets say at best the Preds have $20M in cap space with 13 players to sign?

A lot of unknown factors to try to project forward so not sure it's a simple "nothing" answer. You want it to be that way but you may or may not be right. It's not as simple as that though

The other thing to consider is if the Preds spend in UFA this summer. Do they want a rebuild or are they going to try to remain competitive? Any moves that puts them tight against the cap moving forward, can have consequences if Weber retires after next year. Brush that under the rug if you wish but that is not just some no problems at all type narrative.

How does Weber to the Preds do anything. Unless I misunderstand thing it doesn't matter if the Preds own the contract or not. If Weber retires before his contract expires they are hit with the recapture penalties no matter what.

 

[Djp]

Teams like Tampa would worry about it cause they are up against the cap year to year now with that core. Maybe we are talking $1M max in many cases but right now, Tampa don't have $1M in cap space and it's likely to continue until the cap rises again.

With your Bruins/Savard situation, I'm not fully aware of past rules. But I do think I have a good understanding of the rules today. Accrued cap space during the season is affected if you move a contract to LTIR before the season starts. And ELC performance bonuses are automatically deferred to the following season. The latter might not matter to some teams but it does to others. It's a circumstantial thing

performance bonus are not deferred.

the cap has a 7.5% bonus/ LTIR overage buffer. Only after exceeding this does roll over to the next season occur.

Older players can be signed to bonus contracts that can roll over to the following season.

they changed the LTIR rules in the last CBA. Before you coukd just acquire a LTIR player unless you had ELC contracted to go against it. LTIR was tied to delta between it and the cap limit fir space. If a team was say $500K from cap and they put a $4.5M contract on LTIR they would create $4M in space to use to call up ELCs or sign a vet PTO.

this changed in new CBA removing these LTIR space manipulating rules. Now teams can do things without having ELC players and without the signing manipulations like toronto had to do with Marner or delaying PTO signing to the regular season after LTIR moves were made.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Vegas is right at the cap and they currently have Stone and Martinez on LTIR and do not have the cap room to bring them off without trading contracts . Acquiring Weber's 7.9M LTIR would enable Stone to come off LTIR if his back is "better".

Even next season Vegas is currently at $82.3 M in cap hits with 15 players signed.

That's not how LTIR contracts work. They increase your cap ceiling but they also reduce it by the same amount. Resulting in a 0 cap space difference before and after.

If you want to tinker, go to Cap Friendly and then to the armchair GM module. Go pick the Knights as the team you want to armchair GM and then make a fake trade to acquire Weber. Then try to move players around and see what cap space is left or how much you are over. It's the best tool to use if you want to understand it all IMO

 

[Djp]

How does Weber to the Preds do anything. Unless I misunderstand thing it doesn't matter if the Preds own the contract or not. If Weber retires before his contract expires they are hit with the recapture penalties no matter what.

It doesn’t other than nashville might find a way to prevent Weber from retiring and trigger recapture.

I believe montreal would get a small recapture penalty too.

i think the CBA made rules adjustment on the potential balloon payment if Weber retired with one yr left through a $24M bill onto nashville

 

[Habs Halifax]

performance bonus are not deferred.

the cap has a 7.5% bonus/ LTIR overage buffer. Only after exceeding this does roll over to the next season occur.

Older players can be signed to bonus contracts that can roll over to the following season.

they changed the LTIR rules in the last CBA. Before you coukd just acquire a LTIR player unless you had ELC contracted to go against it. LTIR was tied to delta between it and the cap limit fir space. If a team was say $500K from cap and they put a $4.5M contract on LTIR they would create $4M in space to use to call up ELCs or sign a vet PTO.

this changed in new CBA removing these LTIR space manipulating rules. Now teams can do things without having ELC players and without the signing manipulations like toronto had to do with Marner or delaying PTO signing to the regular season after LTIR moves were made.

It's very deep in context and here are two links below. Maybe you think you already know, maybe not. One quote from Capfriendly... LTIR is a very complicated aspect of the NHL operations and the vast majority of details are not specified in the CBA

These two links explain a few things but none of us are NHL GM's or lawyers. Good luck trying to understand everything. I myself only have an understanding of it by about 75%-90% range. Certainly not going to act like an expert but I do have a decent handle on the major parts.

The NHL LTIR Explained -
LTIR FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Fast forward to the 23/24 season where Weber might retire (3 season left at $1M like many of us are saying) and the Preds have 9 players under contract with about $33M in cap space. Subtract Forsberg's new contract and Weber's cap hit and it's about $16M in cap space left with 10 players signed? How much higher will the cap be for 23/24? Guess work but lets say at best the Preds have $20M in cap space with 13 players to sign?

A lot of unknown factors to try to project forward so not sure it's a simple "nothing" answer. You want it to be that way but you may or may not be right. It's not as simple as that though

The other thing to consider is if the Preds spend in UFA this summer. Do they want a rebuild or are they going to try to remain competitive? Any moves that puts them tight against the cap moving forward, can have consequences if Weber retires after next year. Brush that under the rug if you wish but that is not just some no problems at all type narrative.

Even if it were a concern (and it's really not), once again, what exactly does Nashville magically do that causes a Weber (determined to retire) to change his mind? Not only thinking him altruistic--for giving up free money for another 3-4 years that he can make in conjunction with a front office, or similar, job--is he also fickle or just devoid of integrity?

 

[mouser]

There is only 1 team that potentially could use Weber's LTIR space in season and that is Vegas. Anything else is an offseason deal.

Weber's contract wouldn't help Vegas in the slightest way.

 

[Habs Halifax]

It doesn’t other than nashville might find a way to prevent Weber from retiring and trigger recapture.

I believe montreal would get a small recapture penalty too.

i think the CBA made rules adjustment on the potential balloon payment if Weber retired with one yr left through a $24M bill onto nashville

Habs won't get hit with anything substantial after this season expires. According to my math, it's a total of $857k and lets face it, Weber is going to collect his $3M salary next year. Retirement thinking comes when it drops to 3 more years at $1M after next season.

You are correct that the NHL changed the rule where the cap recapture can't be higher than his AAV in any season.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Weber's contract wouldn't help Vegas in the slightest way.

Thank you for this. My hunch as well where I was 90% sure but after you jumped in, I'm now 100%.

Some fans actually think LTIR contracts increase cap space. . There is no way Bettman allows that to happen with the 50/50 revenue split and yearly escrow.

 

[mouser]

performance bonus are not deferred.

the cap has a 7.5% bonus/ LTIR overage buffer. Only after exceeding this does roll over to the next season occur.

Older players can be signed to bonus contracts that can roll over to the following season.

they changed the LTIR rules in the last CBA. Before you coukd just acquire a LTIR player unless you had ELC contracted to go against it. LTIR was tied to delta between it and the cap limit fir space. If a team was say $500K from cap and they put a $4.5M contract on LTIR they would create $4M in space to use to call up ELCs or sign a vet PTO.

this changed in new CBA removing these LTIR space manipulating rules. Now teams can do things without having ELC players and without the signing manipulations like toronto had to do with Marner or delaying PTO signing to the regular season after LTIR moves were made.

There have been no changes to the LTIR rules since they were first instituted in 2005.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Even if it were a concern (and it's really not), once again, what exactly does Nashville magically do that causes a Weber (determined to retire) to change his mind? Not only thinking him altruistic--for giving up free money for another 3-4 years that he can make in conjunction with a front office, or similar, job--is he also fickle or just devoid of integrity?

Preds can't do anything cause he is not their property. They can only try to change his mind if they trade for him and are allowed to talk to him. We have to remember that Weber was likely happy in Nashville as the Captain and the Preds traded him out. He has zero loyalties to the Preds at this stage. If he wants to retire after his $3M salary next year, there is nothing stopping him. Not even the Habs. In fact, his contract was designed for him to retire after that $3M salary season.

The Preds would be smart to not spend to the max cap moving forward. Weber retiring or not is a black cloud on their ability to be a top spending team at this stage. Do they think the cap rises after two more years? Probably but also risky to commit to long term deals now without knowing for sure.

 

[mouser]

Vegas is right at the cap and they currently have Stone and Martinez on LTIR and do not have the cap room to bring them off without trading contracts . Acquiring Weber's 7.9M LTIR would enable Stone to come off LTIR if his back is "better".

Even next season Vegas is currently at $82.3 M in cap hits with 15 players signed.

Problem with this scenario is Weber doesn't have a $0 cap hit--Weber's cap hit is $7.857m.

If Vegas acquires Weber then they've increased their cap usage by $7.857m and can get $7.857m in LTIR relief.

Net cap space gained is $7.857m contract minus $7.857m LTIR = $0 cap space gain.

 

[Habs Halifax]

There have been no changes to the LTIR rules since they were first instituted in 2005.

I was also wondering what that poster was talking about cause it was the first I heard of that

 

[lanky]

You don't think Arizona will fall into this category? They are only at 38.5M for next year with 12 roster spots to fill and moving into a smaller arena for a minimum of 3 years while already maxed out on revenue sharing. All this before potentially dealing Chychrun away to be replaced with even more league minimum salary players.

Not pretending there's any value in the contract but I'd be very surprised if Arizona wouldn't entertain taking this on for next to nothing.
They seem quite committed to the tank again next year and this would allow them to ice an even worse roster while still meeting the cap floor

I agree that AZ has some work to do in order to meet the floor.

It should be quite easy for AZ to collect picks for cap dumps next summer. Just as they did last summer.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You don't think Arizona will fall into this category? They are only at 38.5M for next year with 12 roster spots to fill and moving into a smaller arena for a minimum of 3 years while already maxed out on revenue sharing. All this before potentially dealing Chychrun away to be replaced with even more league minimum salary players.

Not pretending there's any value in the contract but I'd be very surprised if Arizona wouldn't entertain taking this on for next to nothing.
They seem quite committed to the tank again next year and this would allow them to ice an even worse roster while still meeting the cap floor

It makes more sense for the Coyotes to try to acquire Weber than it does for the Habs to call them to try to trade. I doubt the Habs will be spending to the max cap this off season and there are zero consequences to moving that contract to LTIR after the season starts. The Habs don't have to be active on trying to move Weber. Basically call us if you are interested or we focus on other areas on our to do list.

Coyotes are a budget team that will be playing in a 5000 seat arena. And like you said, if they trade Chychrun away for youth/futures, that makes them farther away from the cap floor. Do they really want to spend $43M on UFA's this summer or make lots of trades where they take on bad contracts? I doubt that.

No doubt in my mind Weber's LTIR contract is of value to them. Insurance pays the contract and they get $8M closer to the cap floor.