We didn’t know what we had

[Gallagbi]

Caps also traded Forsberg for shit.

They hung on to Mike Green too long and lost him for nothing. Kept Alzner as a regular in their line-up despite him sucking ass. Etc.

It's an enviable situation because it isn't your team. The Leafs will likely win a cup with this group. It's too talented to not. The issue is like Vancouver their fanbase won't let them be patient with the group.

I know you're new here, but you can't say that aloud. Even if you believe it.

 

[Stonehands1990]

the xGF numbers were largely indifferent from G5-G7 for the Leafs and Montreal.

I personally don’t care what the expected goals was because it’s a flawed stat. It doesn’t take into account teammate, opposition or goalie position

 

[Ciao]

Well, we were on an upward trajectory while he was here and it looked like the sky was the limit.

Since Dubas took over, we've stayed stagnant. Even worse, we are now capped out and terrible pick situation. Not only will we not get better, it looks like we are going to struggle the team to be as good as it currently is.

Lou was here for 3 years, same as dubas.

Lou took over a 68 point team that had made the playoffs once in ~12 years. His first year we "tank" and come last with 69 points, getting to pick auston first OA.

2nd year we make playoffs with 100 points and push the best team to 6 games with a couple OTs.

3rd year we set a franchise record with 105 and take the Bruins to game 7.

Literally every year under lou we improved.

Dubas took over a 105 point team.

First year we get 100 points and lose again to the Bruins in game 7.

2nd year we pace for 95 and lose to a depleted jackets in the qualifier. We didn't even make the final 16.

3rd year we get gifted a north division with no Tampa, Boston or jackets to stop us. Yet we still lose to the habs in 7.

We have either gone backwards or stayed the same for 3 years under dubas.

Which gm would you rather have?

This is a thread about Lou -- that has nothing at all to do with Dubas.

Since you ask, I have nothing at all against Lou and would not have complained had he stayed on longer, but given the choice I would choose the younger GM with the higher ceiling -- which is Dubas.

 

[Gurglesons]

I know you're new here, but you can't say that aloud. Even if you believe it.

say it out load three times in the mirror and Keith Primeau’s ghost appears.

 

[Garthinater]

Not sure any other team has had the option, maybe the Oilers but the decided to move Hall.


How many players we expecting back from that first playoff series loss, 3+Mo? Feels like there's been lots of change, maybe not the one you currently want though.

Personally I'm not a fan of the "no team has ever" or "no team can" type logic. We heard no team can win without impact ELCs early on. Then it was just having a cheap forward (Zetterberg blew the ELC logic). We heard you couldn't win squeak into the playoffs and win, then the King did. We heard you need to be back-end heavy, then forward heavy, then deep the carried by stars

Feels like you simply need to be a good team. If this Core plays to its potential in the playoffs, it's exactly that IMO. the question is whether these are the horses to do it though, and not whether you can be a good team with our current build.

Teams could've traded to get 4 forwards that take up half the cap. I'm not surprised none have though. The worst part about this is that none are signed for 8 years. Most teams get the benefit of the players being bargains for the last few years but we don't even get that with matthews or marner. Flat cap makes it even worse.

There is no one way to make a team. Anyone who thinks there is some sort of blueprint that automatically leads to success is only fooling themselves.

But we have already squandered 3 of the most promising years with this core. How many more are we going to allow kyle to throw away?

 

[Gurglesons]

I personally don’t care what the expected goals was because it’s a flawed stat. It doesn’t take into account teammate, opposition or goalie position

aka I don’t know what I’m talking about so it’s wrong or I don’t care.

 

[sparxx87]

I've played hockey my entire life and I'm a fan of the most successful hockey team of the past 30 years. I've seen more winning as a fan than you've seen so does that make me more qualified?

This is word for word the same exact argument PIT and mainboard fans made about CHI and LA while Crosby and Malkin sucked ass from 2010 - 2015.

Toews was a true winner. Depth won championships, blah blah blah.

There's more than one way to win a cup. Who expected St Louis to win in 2019.

I wasn’t the least bit surprised with St Louis? They’re a well structured and added a player that impacts winning like O’Rielly. This makes them a hard team to play against in the playoffs when you examine the players around their strong centre ice position and defense.

This was always a team that had a shot.

 

[Gallagbi]

say it out load three times in the mirror and Keith Primeau’s ghost appears.

Close, Harold Ballard is the correct ghost.

 

[sparxx87]

aka I don’t know what I’m talking about so it’s wrong or I don’t care.

 

[hamzarocks]

Pageau is basically a Kerfoot level of talent. Imagine the reaction if Kyle Dubas paid a 27 year old Kerfoot $5+M a year.

Pageau is a rich man's Danult who ended Matthews and Marners season making them look terrible

Kerfoot had a solid series but he's a 30 point 3C who's not overly physical and has a tendency to take penalties

Pageau has been earning his contract with how strong his play has been the past 2 years for the Islanders

 

[Stonehands1990]

aka I don’t know what I’m talking about so it’s wrong or I don’t care.

I know exactly what I’m talking about. Expected goals uses shot type and location in a weighted average system to determine the probability of goals

I’m guessing you don’t actually play hockey yourself because if you did you’d know a screened shot is more dangerous than an unscreened shot. But they would have the same expected goals value. Hence the reason the stat is flawed

 

[Garthinater]

This is a thread about Lou -- that has nothing at all to do with Dubas.

Since you ask, I have nothing at all against Lou and would not have complained had he stayed on longer, but given the choice I would choose the younger GM with the higher ceiling -- which is Dubas.

Don't be naive.

What makes dubas have a "higher ceiling"?

Him having no results for 3 years?

Or lou only having positive results for 3 years and then leading another team to the semi finals?

How is "ceiling" measured?

 

[sparxx87]

I personally don’t care what the expected goals was because it’s a flawed stat. It doesn’t take into account teammate, opposition or goalie position

And because of all these models that actually miss more data than they track, the results are all over the place.

These are not an effective measure of a player or his impact on the game.

 

[Gallagbi]

Teams could've traded to get 4 forwards that take up half the cap. I'm not surprised none have though. The worst part about this is that none are signed for 8 years. Most teams get the benefit of the players being bargains for the last few years but we don't even get that with matthews or marner. Flat cap makes it even worse.

Teams address needs. Currently our need isn't D - I think this is the surprising part and why I'm a little surprised ppl are upset at our structure.

I'm sure a team like Pitts would have loved to add Ovi in his prime, but I'm not sure many teams have the assets to acquire 4 top end forwards like the Leafs do without moving one or creating a significant hole elsewhere.

But we have already squandered 3 of the most promising years with this core. How many more are we going to allow kyle to throw away?

I figure 1, but I don't blame the cap allocation, I blame the players he chose to spend on. Hell trade Marner for McDavid tomorrow and I'm over the moon even though or top-end cap has gotten worse.

 

[Garthinater]

Caps also traded Forsberg for shit.

They hung on to Mike Green too long and lost him for nothing. Kept Alzner as a regular in their line-up despite him sucking ass. Etc.

It's an enviable situation because it isn't your team. The Leafs will likely win a cup with this group. It's too talented to not. The issue is like Vancouver their fanbase won't let them be patient with the group.

Talent does not equal winning, especially the cup. Patience is how you end up like the Canucks or the sharks.

2020 we were told that we were way to talented to lose to the jackets.

2021 we were told that we would either sweep the habs or in 5 at most.

Maybe there is more to winning than just talent?

Go back to your own board. You've proven to have no clue what you're even talking about.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

The crazy thing about that is the stat gurus are under the impression that every team is trying to trade chances. That’s why better corsi or expected goals to them = good. They don’t realize how teams use shutdown lines that focus on staying on the right side of the puck, getting pucks deep and blanking the opposition

Good points.. I will add that when our Coach bristles at the fact that we got out hit by a large margin and says that when we were hitting them "We played some of our worst hockey"....maybe that's because you don't do it at all during the season and aren't good or effective at it. It takes practice. Saying stuff like that as a coach while your players are panicking and shooting it over the glass is borderline comical.

 

[Stonehands1990]

And because of all these models that actually miss more data than they track, the results are all over the place.

These are not an effective measure of a player or his impact on the game.

Im totally fine with using analytics to scout bazillion players at the amateur level to determine what type of players to bring into the organization. Knowledge is power

My issue is the idiots we have running out team are using it primarily for strategy and they are interpreting the data incorrectly

 

[sparxx87]

Im totally fine with using analytics to scout bazillion players at the amateur level to determine what type of players to bring into the organization. Knowledge is power

My issue is the idiots we have running out team are using it primarily for strategy and they are interpreting the data incorrectly

Use the data in conjunction with qualified minds who know how to scout a player and create a basic profile. This is the most important part of the process.

Once this player is profiled based on his potential role on the team, that’s when we start using numbers to compare certain details that will be part of our overall decision based on the specific roles we needs. This is when we start looking at different intangible qualities this individual brings etc etc.

Kyle Dubas: Trade Mason Marchment for Dennis Malgin.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Use the data in conjunction with qualified minds who know how to scout a player and create a basic profile. Once this player is profiled based on his potential role on the team, that’s when we start using numbers to compare certain details that will be part of our overall decision based on the specific roles we needs.

Kyle Dubas: Trade Mason Marchment for Dennis Malgin.

Yes. Have someone compile the data and then hand it over to a Steve Yzerman or Joe Sakic. Competency is key

 

[Stonehands1990]

View attachment 446239

My favourite part of these exchanges is the posters who think we don’t understand their flawed analytical models. When in reality we understand them to the point that we can point out the flaws

 

[sparxx87]

Yes. Have someone compile the data and then hand it over to a Steve Yzerman or Joe Sakic. Competency is key

Where I think it gets interesting, is all the different things that someone like Yzerman could be tracking. As a coach I used to have my backup goalie count shots and faceoff maychups.. with today’s technology and resources, there’s so many things they can have at their fingertips on the bench.

 

[gamer1035]

This is a thread about Lou -- that has nothing at all to do with Dubas.

Since you ask, I have nothing at all against Lou and would not have complained had he stayed on longer, but given the choice I would choose the younger GM with the higher ceiling -- which is Dubas.

Lmao. So now we, the richest team, are wasting this core Dubas inherited in order to develop him? How about we let other teams develop gm's, or if we're gonna develop one, how about when we can afford mistakes, such as if we were tanking.

Maybe he should've just developed in the OHL.... He's clearly not some gm'ing genius, look at those rfa deals and look at our teams situation.

 

[Gallagbi]

I wasn’t the least bit surprised with St Louis? They’re a well structured and added a player that impacts winning like O’Rielly. This makes them a hard team to play against in the playoffs when you examine the players around their strong centre ice position and defense.

This was always a team that had a shot.

Wasn't ROR largely considered a problem in the room who had no playoff success up to joining STL? Pretty sure they basically ran him out of Buffalo.

That STL did have some good underlying numbers through their terrible start though.

 

[sparxx87]

Wasn't ROR largely considered a problem in the room who had no playoff success up to joining STL? Pretty sure they basically ran him out of Buffalo.

That STL did have some good underlying numbers through their terrible start though.

If he was a problem in Buffalo it’s because other players weren’t carrying their weight. If he’s trying to drive winning and players are losers behind him, that would probably be pretty frustrating.

I would take this player on my team anytime.

 

[rumman]

What would the Leafs look like if Lou Lamoriello was still the GM?