We didn’t know what we had

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Well, maybe Lou should've paid analytical minds to draft for his team when he was in charge eh?

Because Tampa has been making use of analytics to inform their drafting choices for years.

I think most of us that are not fans of Dubas would admit that Lou's drafts were garbage. I like his trades for the most part...but his drafting sucked the life out of us for 3yrs. Was it Hunter that messed it up?....my guess is yes it was but Lou is the boss and had the final say.

 

[Gurglesons]

Great. You should understand, but I can assure you that could be a fan of the least successful team in the past 30 years and it has no bearing on the bare bone fundamentals that make up a winning group in competitive physical sport.

What are these bare bone fundamentals?

Did you forget when Marner blocked a shot to preserve that game against Boston?

I dunno man, go read a sports book if you want narratives. The reality is stupid shit happens in the playoffs and they are not representative of much beyond luck.

 

[rocketman588]

I think hockey fans forget that it’s a 60 min game and most top forwards play 33% of the entire game. That’s 67% where shit happens that’s not your fault.

So you see the issue with playing 1/4 of your salary cap for mostly the same 1/3 of the game and another 1/4 for a different 1/3 leaving 1/3 of the game for some pretty trash players.

These guys need to drive their own lines of they're gonna take this much money for only 1/3 of the game or they need to score enough together so that 2/3 doesn't matter

 

[Gurglesons]

Why? I’m not measuring height or weight, I’m measuring heart and skill with a base I can develop.

How do you measure heart and skill and why do Matthews and Marner not have it?

Who has heart and skill? Did Crosby not have heart and skill this year when he sucked ass in the playoffs?

Gotta go though, Rudy is playing at the drive-in. I'll let you know my takeaways when I get back.

 

[Gurglesons]

So you see the issue with playing 1/4 of your salary cap for mostly the same 1/3 of the game and another 1/4 for a different 1/3 leaving 1/3 of the game for some pretty trash players.

These guys need to drive their own lines of they're gonna take this much money for only 1/3 of the game or they need to score enough together so that 2/3 doesn't matter

I think this is the biggest issue I've seen with Keefe and the Leafs. Same thing Edmonton pulls. Too much focus on 1 big line.

With Tavares down not moving Matthews and Marner apart was shocking. Especially given how bad Marner looked in G6 and G7.

 

[Garthinater]

So because the pens ended up winning after some losers said malkin and crosby suck (lmao) we're supposed to be patient with a gm who has shown nothing but failure for 3 years after taking over a 105 pojnt team?

Yeah im not buying what you're selling.

 

[rumman]

I’ve been reading lots and lots of post choke posts, and the one thing I find highly ironic is that stats and analytics are gospel and should be worshipped.......except when trying to explain why the Leafs can’t win in the post season, then it’s justified to ignore the data that indicates something is amiss. Am I missing something or are there no principles allow in said discussions?

 

[rocketman588]

I think this is the biggest issue I've seen with Keefe and the Leafs. Same thing Edmonton pulls. Too much focus on 1 big line.

With Tavares down not moving Matthews and Marner apart was shocking. Especially given how bad Marner looked in G6 and G7.

You have to wonder who was driving this decision. I hope it was Keefe or Dubas doing it based off of whatever numbers they have/ Babcock getting lampooned for it.

I'm worried it's because Matthews and Marner control decisions more then we think

 

[Racer88]

I imagine if Dubas doesn't win next year he's gone. I think he's deserved that.

Hard for me to fault Dubas for what happened to the Leafs this year. But fans just want a linear issue to blame versus looking at things as nuanced.

The reality is the Maple Leafs have been favorites in two series since they made the playoffs. They've lost two of them. One of them was during the COVID cup. One of them was when they lost 11 million dollars of cap hit in the first period of G1.

I imagine if Dubas doesn't win next year he's gone. I think he's deserved that.

Hard for me to fault Dubas for what happened to the Leafs this year. But fans just want a linear issue to blame versus looking at things as nuanced.

The reality is the Maple Leafs have been favorites in two series since they made the playoffs. They've lost two of them. One of them was during the COVID cup. One of them was when they lost 11 million dollars of cap hit in the first period of G1.

we did lose 11 million dollars of cap hit and I truly hope that he recovers 100% not just from a hockey stand point but from the rest of his life.
However in my opinion we only lost about 6-7 million dollars worth of player and production.
There is no way he was providing 11 million dollars of value this past season

 

[sparxx87]

What are these bare bone fundamentals?

Did you forget when Marner blocked a shot to preserve that game against Boston?

I dunno man, go read a sports book if you want narratives. The reality is stupid shit happens in the playoffs and they are not representative of much beyond luck.

Simply put, several dozen 50/50 plays for a player over the course of a game. It’s skill and ability mixed with who is fighting harder, and who digs deeper. Who is willing to sacrifice their body. In a matchup scenario, it’s often a collection of these different plays and scenarios that ultimately decide the game and series.

How many more can I win than my opponent?

This roughly describes the often overused word of culture.

 

[Garthinater]

I’ve been reading lots and lots of post choke posts, and the one thing I find highly ironic is that stats and analytics are gospel and should be worshipped.......except when trying to explain why the Leafs can’t win in the post season, then it’s justified to ignore the data that indicates something is amiss. Am I missing something or are there no principles allow in said discussions?

There was a funny post that showed the leafs have had the better corsi more times in the playoffs over the last 3 years yet half as many wins as the islanders.

Its almost like advanced stats don't decide the games.

Shocking I know.

 

[Gurglesons]

So because the pens ended up winning after some losers said malkin and crosby suck (lmao) we're supposed to be patient with a gm who has shown nothing but failure for 3 years after taking over a 105 pojnt team?

Yeah im not buying what you're selling.

No, my point is that franchises that have the best pieces that are patient ultimately push through. The Bruins sucked until they didn't in 2011. Tons of embarrassing exits. Caps. Tampa. St Louis.

Patience is important here.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I imagine if Dubas doesn't win next year he's gone. I think he's deserved that.

Hard for me to fault Dubas for what happened to the Leafs this year. But fans just want a linear issue to blame versus looking at things as nuanced.

The reality is the Maple Leafs have been favorites in two series since they made the playoffs. They've lost two of them. One of them was during the COVID cup. One of them was when they lost 11 million dollars of cap hit in the first period of G1.

The problem is that we are almost going backwards. We lost in a good fight against Boston in the first game 7 (even leading going into the 3rd) ...we then got demolished 5-1 in the next game 7 to a Boston team that was pretty much the same. The following year against CBJ we lost to a team that can't score by scoring even less...and the cherry on top..we did not show up to play for the last 3 games and blew a 3-1 lead against montreal. Shouldn't that script be reversed? We are getting worse at the playoffs as far as choking goes...not better.

 

[Gurglesons]

Simply put, several dozen 50/50 plays for a player over the course of a game. It’s skill and ability mixed with who is fighting harder, and who digs deeper. Who is willing to sacrifice their body. In a matchup scenario, it’s often a collection of these different plays and scenarios that ultimately decide the game and series.

How many more can I win than my opponent?

This roughly describes the often overused word of culture.

Not really. It's stupid shit that wins playoff games like Keegan Kolesar getting a random tip shot or Drouin being offside by a second on a key 1st goal in G7.

 

[Gurglesons]

The problem is that we are almost going backwards. We lost in a good fight against Boston in the first game 7 (even leading going into the 3rd) ...we then got demolished 5-1 in the next game 7 to a Boston team that was pretty much the same. The following year against CBJ we lost to a team that can't score by scoring even less...and the cherry on top..we did not show up to play for the last 3 games and blew a 3-1 lead against montreal. Shouldn't that script be reversed? We are getting worse at the playoffs as far as choking goes...not better.

I guess. It didn't work that way for the Penguins after their cup win in 2009.

The Capitals got embarrassed regularly. Lightning got swept before their cup win.

I think the reality is there isn't any path to championships that's linear. The reality is you keep going back with the best pieces you can and hope it works. Which is what I think some fans are missing when I say you can win with Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, and Hornqvist taking up 40% of the cap. It's not about the players. It's about keeping the high level talent.

 

[sparxx87]

No, my point is that franchises that have the best pieces that are patient ultimately push through. The Bruins sucked until they didn't in 2011. Tons of embarrassing exits. Caps. Tampa. St Louis.

Patience is important here.

Indeed. Those teams were all structured well so it was always only a few pieces away.

With the Leafs, it’s far more complicated.

 

[Gurglesons]

Indeed. Those teams were all structured well so it was always only a few pieces away.

With the Leafs, it’s far more complicated.

The Penguins were structured awfully from 2010-2015 that's why they lost.

So were the Capitals from 2015-2017. They eventually had the right fit of depth pieces and prospects though.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

There was a funny post that showed the leafs have had the better corsi more times in the playoffs over the last 3 years yet half as many wins as the islanders.

Its almost like advanced stats don't decide the games.

Shocking I know.

I know I look at stats with a crooked eye when I read that Engval had an expected goals better than AM on some nights...you know they don't have the same shooting skill...but xGF doesn't adjust for the shooters skill level... a less skilled guy gets to use that stupid stat in his contract talks....and we get to trot out spineless guys like Engval because his stats say we should.

 

[Garthinater]

No, my point is that franchises that have the best pieces that are patient ultimately push through. The Bruins sucked until they didn't in 2011. Tons of embarrassing exits. Caps. Tampa. St Louis.

Patience is important here.

Not with a gm who has wasted 3 years of the most promising and talented young team I've seen in Toronto.

For evey team that ends up winning the cup you get a Canucks or a sharks. We're not guaranteed anything and the results show that under dubas we are not trending in the right direction.

Lou was here for 3 years. He was let go because we couldn't get past the first round even though he took over a 68 point team.

Now he's crushing it with the islanders.

Dubas has been here for 3 years after taking over a 105 point team. We have never gotten past game 7 of the first round and even failed to make the final 16 in 2020.

 

[rumman]

You said this thread is bizarre.

Im trying to explain to you why people who’ve played/coached/watched hockey their whole life and know what winning looks like are so angry with the decisions Kyle Dubas has made. Not only do many of these fans know what winning looks like, but we watch the NHL playoffs very closely and see the difference in philosophy between the teams that win, and the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Amen, so endth the lesson.

 

[Gallagbi]

I know I look at stats with a crooked eye when I read that Engval had an expected goals better than AM on some nights...you know they don't have the same shooting skill...but xGF doesn't adjust for the shooters skill level... a less skilled guy gets to use that stupid stat in his contract talks....and we get to trot out spineless guys like Engval because his stats say we should.

Didn't we sign Engvall after a period where his actual production outproduced his stats?

And we had the option to trot out some "strong" (physically) players like Thornton and Simminds, personally I take Engvall everyday over them. At least he can skate and chase down pucks

 

[sparxx87]

The Penguins were structured awfully from 2010-2015 that's why they lost.

So were the Capitals from 2015-2017. They eventually had the right fit of depth pieces and prospects though.

I disagree about the Penguins. It was an enviable situation.

Caps landed Kuznetsov and Carlson in the late 1st. That would be great, but made less likely given Dubas trades all his picks.

 

[Gurglesons]

Not with a gm who has wasted 3 years of the most promising and talented young team I've seen in Toronto.

For evey team that ends up winning the cup you get a Canucks or a sharks. We're not guaranteed anything and the results show that under dubas we are not trending in the right direction.

Lou was here for 3 years. He was let go because we couldn't get past the first round even though he took over a 68 point team.

Now he's crushing it with the islanders.

Dubas has been here for 3 years after taking over a 105 point team. We have never gotten past game 7 of the first round and even failed to make the final 16 in 2020.

Maybe the past three years are what drives the Leafs to ultimately win in the next two..

Narratives are only what the team makes them.

 

[Gurglesons]

I disagree about the Penguins. It was an enviable situation.

Caps landed Kuznetsov and Carlson in the late 1st. That would be great, but made less likely given Dubas trades all his picks.

Caps also traded Forsberg for shit.

They hung on to Mike Green too long and lost him for nothing. Kept Alzner as a regular in their line-up despite him sucking ass. Etc.

It's an enviable situation because it isn't your team. The Leafs will likely win a cup with this group. It's too talented to not. The issue is like Vancouver their fanbase won't let them be patient with the group.

 

[Garthinater]

I don't know if you follow the NFL at all. But there is a coach who had some success a long time ago and became a TV analyst. His name is Jon Gruden. He won 1 super bowl a long time ago and then drove that team into the ground because he insisted that his "System" was perfect...its the lack of a QB that can execute that is the problem. So we now come to today where he is back in the NFL again as the highest paid coach..and has done basically nothing...why? because the QB can't execute his system....so its always the QB that is the problem...never Gruden. You would think after having no success in however many years with your system...that you would change it up a bit and stop blaming the QB.

How does that relate to us? We keep saying the core will pull us through etc....and they keep failing...but instead of analyzing their approach to possibly be deficient..we keep doing the same thing over and over...it has to be bad luck...it was Covid...it was JT getting hurt...always an excuse for the Duby. Just because he doesn't call it an excuse doesn't mean he didn't allude to the excuse.

I don't follow NFL at all but its the same situation. Somehow people have been fooled into making up excuses as to why this person can't find success when it stems from the person.

But I'm shocked NFL this coach has been able to keep it going for so long. Hopefully dubas doesn't last as long.