We didn’t know what we had

[Mitch Matthews]

That Marleau, Zaitsev deals, and trading 2nds for 4th liners was pretty awesome.
I know I don't want that GM.
Tell me the great moves he made here?

Sometimes it's the moves you don't make. I'm pretty sure Lou would not have been taken to the cleaners by Matthews and Marner

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Didn't we sign Engvall after a period where his actual production outproduced his stats?

No, I am pretty sure he got signed midway through the season last year after he shot the lights out the first 20games or so. I know its not a lot of money ...but if your guy is useless I don't care how little you pay him above minimum.

 

[rumman]

I imagine if Dubas doesn't win next year he's gone. I think he's deserved that.

Hard for me to fault Dubas for what happened to the Leafs this year. But fans just want a linear issue to blame versus looking at things as nuanced.

The reality is the Maple Leafs have been favorites in two series since they made the playoffs. They've lost two of them. One of them was during the COVID cup. One of them was when they lost 11 million dollars of cap hit in the first period of G1.

We all said this last year before losing to the might Blue Jackets, now it’s a year later, another choke job later and the teflon GM is still employed, unbelievable, yet here we are........

 

[Garthinater]

Maybe the past three years are what drives the Leafs to ultimately win in the next two..

Narratives are only what the team makes them.

No team has won with the same core after losing 5 times in the first round / series.

No team has won with 50% of the cap tied up in 4 forwards.

Why try and re invent the wheel?

Are you really this naive? Or are you just a closet dubas fan boy too?

 

[Gallagbi]

No, I am pretty sure he got signed midway through the season last year after he shot the lights out the first 20games or so. I know its not a lot of money ...but if your guy is useless I don't care how little you pay him above minimum.

Shooting the lights out is exactly my comment. Pretty sure he was locked up around 0.5PPG which isn't where anyone would project him.

So I'd expect the production outpaced the advanced stats over that period.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Shooting the lights out is exactly my comment. Pretty sure he was locked up around 0.5PPG which isn't where anyone would project him.

So I'd expect the production outpaced the advanced stats over that period.

I see what you mean. I thought you meant he produced AFTER he signed his deal...the exact opposite happened...1 goal in his last 20 or so games.

 

[Gallagbi]

No team has won with the same core after losing 5 times in the first round / series.

No team has won with 50% of the cap tied up in 4 forwards.

Are you really this naive? Or are you just a closet dubas fan boy too?

Not sure any other team has tried with 50% of their cap in top end forwards. I certainly can't think of any.

How many teams have lost 5 straight first round exits? How many did the last 4 in a "Game 7"?

 

[Gurglesons]

We all said this last year before losing to the might Blue Jackets, now it’s a year later, another choke job later and the teflon GM is still employed, unbelievable, yet here we are........

Penguins ->

Swept in 2013 after putting up a Chicago like season and "going all in".
2014. We make it 3-1 in the 2nd round against the Rags with Fleury playing lights out. Choke. Lose.
2015. Fleury is amazing. We win one game.
2016 we win a cup. It is catharsis.

From 2010 - 2015 the only teams the Penguins beat in the Stanley Cup Playoffs were the Ottawa Senators, New York Islanders, and Columbus Blue Jackets.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I know I look at stats with a crooked eye when I read that Engval had an expected goals better than AM on some nights...you know they don't have the same shooting skill...but xGF doesn't adjust for the shooters skill level... a less skilled guy gets to use that stupid stat in his contract talks....and we get to trot out spineless guys like Engval because his stats say we should.

do you mean individual expected goals? Matthews was first in the league and Engvall was 399th. Any player can have a better night than an elite player here and there by pretty much any stat you could look at

 

[Ciao]

I don't mind Lou, but I must have missed all the success the Leafs enjoyed with him.

As far as I knew, they were a soft team with the worst defence in the league, that couldn't score when it counted and had bad, overpaid players such as Marleau, Martin, Brown and Zaitsev. At least, that's the narrative I remember from that time.

If the narrative has now changed then, yeah, we didn't know what we had.

We hadn't known we really had a winner.

 

[Garthinater]

Not sure any other team has tried with 50% of their cap in top end forwards. I certainly can't think of any.

How many teams have lost 5 straight first round exits? How many did the last 4 in a "Game 7"?

Yeah its almost like most sane and rational people know that its not a recipe for success. Maybe in NHL21 but not real life.

I doubt very many teams have lost 5 times in the first round. I bet even fewer tried the same thing for a 6th season.

 

[rocketman588]

we did lose 11 million dollars of cap hit and I truly hope that he recovers 100% not just from a hockey stand point but from the rest of his life.
However in my opinion we only lost about 6-7 million dollars worth of player and production.
There is no way he was providing 11 million dollars of value this past season

The Habs had 10 mil of Cap space out with Tatar and Drouin and had no worries

 

[Brobust]

Pageau is a very good and effective player...he came out to play every time the Sens played the Leafs.

Pageau is basically a Kerfoot level of talent. Imagine the reaction if Kyle Dubas paid a 27 year old Kerfoot $5+M a year.

 

[gamer1035]

I don't mind Lou, but I must have missed all the success the Leafs enjoyed with him.

As far as I knew, they were a soft team with the worst defence in the league, that couldn't score when it counted and had bad, overpaid players such as Marleau, Martin, Brown and Zaitsev. At least, that's the narrative I remember from that time.

If the narrative has now changed then, yeah, we didn't know what we had.

We hadn't known we really had a winner.

Well, we were on an upward trajectory while he was here and it looked like the sky was the limit.

Since Dubas took over, we've stayed stagnant. Even worse, we are now capped out and terrible pick situation. Not only will we not get better, it looks like we are going to struggle the team to be as good as it currently is.

 

[Garthinater]

I don't mind Lou, but I must have missed all the success the Leafs enjoyed with him.

As far as I knew, they were a soft team with the worst defence in the league, that couldn't score when it counted and had bad, overpaid players such as Marleau, Martin, Brown and Zaitsev. At least, that's the narrative I remember from that time.

If the narrative has now changed then, yeah, we didn't know what we had.

We hadn't known we really had a winner.

Lou was here for 3 years, same as dubas.

Lou took over a 68 point team that had made the playoffs once in ~12 years. His first year we "tank" and come last with 69 points, getting to pick auston first OA.

2nd year we make playoffs with 100 points and push the best team to 6 games with a couple OTs.

3rd year we set a franchise record with 105 and take the Bruins to game 7.

Literally every year under lou we improved.

Dubas took over a 105 point team.

First year we get 100 points and lose again to the Bruins in game 7.

2nd year we pace for 95 and lose to a depleted jackets in the qualifier. We didn't even make the final 16.

3rd year we get gifted a north division with no Tampa, Boston or jackets to stop us. Yet we still lose to the habs in 7.

We have either gone backwards or stayed the same for 3 years under dubas.

Which gm would you rather have?

 

[Gallagbi]

Yeah its almost like most sane and rational people know that its not a recipe for success. Maybe in NHL21 but not real life.

Not sure any other team has had the option, maybe the Oilers but the decided to move Hall.

I doubt very many teams have lost 5 times in the first round. I bet even fewer tried the same thing for a 6th season.

How many players we expecting back from that first playoff series loss, 3+Mo? Feels like there's been lots of change, maybe not the one you currently want though.

Personally I'm not a fan of the "no team has ever" or "no team can" type logic. We heard no team can win without impact ELCs early on. Then it was just having a cheap forward (Zetterberg blew the ELC logic). We heard you couldn't win squeak into the playoffs and win, then the King did. We heard you need to be back-end heavy, then forward heavy, then deep the carried by stars

Feels like you simply need to be a good team. If this Core plays to its potential in the playoffs, it's exactly that IMO. the question is whether these are the horses to do it though, and not whether you can be a good team with our current build.

 

[Garthinater]

Pageau is basically a Kerfoot level of talent. Imagine the reaction if Kyle Dubas paid a 27 year old Kerfoot $5+M a year.

Imagine the outrage if Lou had traded a 1st for a player who played 4 PO games and got 1 assist.

Its funny how you think everything Lou does is bad yet his team keeps winning.

Maybe you have no clue what you're talking about?

 

[Stonehands1990]

There was a funny post that showed the leafs have had the better corsi more times in the playoffs over the last 3 years yet half as many wins as the islanders.

Its almost like advanced stats don't decide the games.

Shocking I know.

The crazy thing about that is the stat gurus are under the impression that every team is trying to trade chances. That’s why better corsi or expected goals to them = good. They don’t realize how teams use shutdown lines that focus on staying on the right side of the puck, getting pucks deep and blanking the opposition

 

[sparxx87]

Caps also traded Forsberg for shit.

They hung on to Mike Green too long and lost him for nothing. Kept Alzner as a regular in their line-up despite him sucking ass. Etc.

It's an enviable situation because it isn't your team. The Leafs will likely win a cup with this group. It's too talented to not. The issue is like Vancouver their fanbase won't let them be patient with the group.

Indeed. No team will get every move right, but if they applied proper logic to every decision, most fans would live with the results.

Yes, this is what you’re not getting. While there’s no denying the talent, it doesn’t have the infrastructure behind it to compete in the playoffs, and it’s hard to reasonably fix because of how they’ve structure the cap.

For a second time, please stop lumping me into groups of fans. I’m a hockey fan whose trying to explain why the Toronto Maple Leafs are different than they appear to you, any why most of their fans are frustrated. I don’t assume you’ve been following all this as closely as I have.

 

[Gurglesons]

The crazy thing about that is the stat gurus are under the impression that every team is trying to trade chances. That’s why better corsi or expected goals to them = good. They don’t realize how teams use shutdown lines that focus on staying on the right side of the puck, getting pucks deep and blanking the opposition

Stat gurus haven’t used Corsi in years.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Stat gurus haven’t used Corsi in years.

Expected goals was also in my post. I suggest reading it in full next time

 

[Gurglesons]

Expected goals was also in my post. I suggest reading it in full next time

the xGF numbers were largely indifferent from G5-G7 for the Leafs and Montreal.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Stat gurus haven’t used Corsi in years.

The point is when you’re system is bend, don’t break or focusing on shutting down the opposition it’s gonna look bad on the analytics side. But that’s the style Columbus and Montreal play. Our coaching and management were blind to this fact

 

[rumman]

Pageau is basically a Kerfoot level of talent. Imagine the reaction if Kyle Dubas paid a 27 year old Kerfoot $5+M a year.

Worth every penny, rather have him than Nylander and keep the almost 2 million to use elsewhere

 

[Gurglesons]

The point is when you’re system is bend, don’t break or focusing on shutting down the opposition it’s gonna look bad on the analytics side. But that’s the style Columbus and Montreal play. Our coaching and management were blind to this fact

The point is saying “stat gurus” doing something makes you look foolish.

The Leafs have not been a great analytical team really ever in the Dubas era.