WCF: Edmonton Oilers vs. Colorado Avalanche ( Avs lead 3-0 )

[HugginThePost]

…. And that is the joke my dude.

There are a lot of oil fans claiming that home crowds, specifically for them, are some big advantage. Hence the tongue in cheek comment.

Don't worry, I got where you were going.

 

[MessierII]

Smith has a .814 save % in game 1’s and a .957 save % in not game 1’s.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

To your first, if it’s not identifiable what is the point of arguing for it? Let alone it’s supposed substantial impact on the opposing player. At this point the theory is akin to flat earth or religion. Your choosing to believe it because you want it to be true. Nothing backs it up. You quoted me to begin this argument but you have yet to bring anything supportive to it other than you believe it does. Show me instances where the crowd is undeniably the beneficial reason for anything towards opposing players. Now show me how Edmonton crowds do it better. You can’t…. Because they don’t. I have not, nor ever, denied that a home crowd is beneficial to the home team. I have always said opposing teams are not effected in the VAST majority of circumstances.

To the second, are you honestly going to tell me that when a team blows a lead they don’t get nervous and sit back, compounding the problem? This only happens to the away teams? Hell, it happened to my team last night…. At home

You can find coincidences in anything if you try hard enough, that’s how conspiracies are born. Unless you can bring something other than you choose to believe it makes a difference we should bring this argument to a close as we’ve both spent way too much time on it.

Im sure it’ll be brought up again and we’ll both be right there for it but Im gonna disengage for now unless something other than “I believe” can be brought to the table. I’m not directly quoting you btw, just the foundation brought to the table by those that have made this argument.

All you're doing is straw manning. I say its one factor you argue against me saying its the only factor every time.

Its not belief when it comes out of the horses mouth brother. Sutter said it literally last week. And their are 1000s of documented players and coaches saying a hostile arena/stadium makes a difference. Ill take their word over yours.

 

[Bounces R Way]

The Avs were up 7-3 (or whatever) when they started to turtle. They didn't seem to be struggling too much until then. The Avs can spread the minutes of that kind of pace of play among more than two guys. This pace also puts the Edmonton defensemen in a more vulnerable position. They were able to catch their breath when the Avs started to turtle.

Sure agreed yes. But there's got to be a happy medium between river hockey and full turtle lol. And tbf the Avs I think have played in that happy medium most of the year. Nothing wrong with playing with pace, but definitely room for improvement in the gap control, defensive reads, and the puck management from last night. This is a series that will probably be won or lost in the NZ. Can't assume Smith is going to give up 6 goals before the game is halfway over every game either.

I would put in Murray first, has to be better than Jack Johnson, I would hope lol

I figured Murray had to be injured, but if he's healthy definitely a better option than either.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

Smith has a .814 save % in game 1’s and a .957 save % in not game 1’s.

Smith has a 0.900 against the Avs in the playoffs, there's no reason to expect him to do any better than that in this series.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Effective coping strategy, but low locus of control.

I declared this team dead and gone when facing elimination against the Kings. They rose up and then punked the Flames in the mouth. What more could I ask for? Avs/Tampa final was always inevitable, so losing here doesn't bother me none.

Living in Calgary, beating them is my Stanley Cup. I can lord this over my friends and coworkers for a very long time.

 

[Eddymac]

.900 wins the game

 

[Avsfan1921]

All you're doing is straw manning. I say its one factor you argue against me saying its the only factor every time.

Its not belief when it comes out of the horses mouth brother. Sutter said it literally last week. And their are 1000s of documented players and coaches saying a hostile arena/stadium makes a difference. Ill take their word over yours.

Take whatever word you’d like. I’ve showed actual advantages to home ice. Not generic statements made about every home arena. You’ve used selective portions of play that you believe sways your argument with nothing but belief. You”believe” that one team pushes back on home ice because of the crowd and not the on ice play.

You choose to take “thousands of documented players and coaches” saying arenas are hostile and hard to play in. When exactly did they all say this was an Edmonton exclusive? Again, they didn’t…. Because it isn’t. And the fact that you point to canned statements from a league known for players’ canned statements should tell you something.

And the “horses mouth” is another genius argument. Because a coach has never covered for a players bad performance instead of calling them out, right? Just last night Bednar said burakovsy “played alright” because he blocked a shot, when he was in fact a poor player. Maybe he didn’t want to call him out publicly… just maybe.

You quoted me when I specifically said that Edmonton has no significant advantage over any other home arena, you have yet to show anything at all, anything, to show that the big bad rogers place is a benefit over other home arenas and their teams. This is was what I was arguing. This has always been what I was arguing. As I’ve stated so many times, but am once again stating it.

Yet I’m making the straw man arguments…

 

[Left handed]

I haven't read through all the pages of comments, but does anyone else think that Koskinen starts Game 2? A big 6'7" guy in net might be able to better withstand the Colorado offensive onslaught.

 

[Artemi Panarin]

The spiciness of this series fan-wise is very entertaining. Especially considering we're only one game in.

 

[Garbageyuk]

I think saying a lot of people feel the same way is extremely subjective. For myself, I feel like Football and basketball are way worse when it comes to effecting games and such. Star treatment and such in basketball for fouls and other calls, football any PI call can basically ruin a game at any point along with unnecessary roughness and holding. I find hockey more enjoyable than either of those and it also has more excitement and physicality than baseball.

No way NBA is worse for that. The NBA loves the big individual stars, and I feel like they really don’t like the Warriors brand of team ball. So guys like Morant and Doncic get bogus foul calls their way here and there. It was pretty bad with Kawhi as well - dude would charge in and literally headbutt or body check with his shoulder on every play and draw fouls. I don’t feel like it dramatically changed the series though. The years the Warriors lost, it was injuries and other issues. And then Curry can get abused all game long and not get calls because he’s such a good shooter, so they don’t want him at the line. It’s shouldn’t be happening, but it’s been more of an annoyance than anything else. The call last night was on a whole other level. The Avs essentially got 3 goals from a single bullshit call. The problem in the NHL is not officiating, it’s that the rules are purposely ambiguous and set up so that the league can pull strings and sway things whichever way they want when the opportunity arises. And they have been using that power more than ever lately. Simply corrupt.

 

[Muffin]

I declared this team dead and gone when facing elimination against the Kings. They rose up and then punked the Flames in the mouth. What more could I ask for? Avs/Tampa final was always inevitable, so losing here doesn't bother me none.

Living in Calgary, beating them is my Stanley Cup. I can lord this over my friends and coworkers for a very long time.

Don’t count the Rangers out, they got some kind of voodoo going on. If Vasi leaves the game with an injury tonight we know they fans sarcrificed something.

 

[Muffin]

I think the difference between Calgary and Colorado is that Colorado can run and gun with Edmonton if they want to play that style. Calgary relies on their structure to score goals.

 

[tardigrade81]

You are whining because you are Mis-stating that the vast majority of people believe this will be a sweep. And that feeds into the victim complex of “poor me”. That’s what I was getting at. I was not calling you a victim and that portion of my post was probably too extreme, for that I apologize.

Well, this year we are enemies. Maybe next year we are friends singing together because the Colts will win the Super Bowl!!!!!! Who knows


Unless you’re a Broncos fan

Then we shall stay mortal enemies

 

[Avsfan1921]

Well, this year we are enemies. Maybe next year we are friends singing together because the Colts will win the Super Bowl!!!!!! Who knows


Unless you’re a Broncos fan

Then we shall stay mortal enemies
View attachment 554754

Hockeys my only sport so just tell me who I should root for in the NFL and you have yourself a new bandwagon fan haha.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

Take whatever word you’d like. I’ve showed actual advantages to home ice. Not generic statements made about every home arena. You’ve used selective portions of play that you believe sways your argument with nothing but belief. You”believe” that one team pushes back on home ice because of the crowd and not the on ice play.

You choose to take “thousands of documented players and coaches” saying arenas are hostile and hard to play in. When exactly did they all say this was an Edmonton exclusive? Again, they didn’t…. Because it isn’t. And the fact that you point to canned statements from a league known for players’ canned statements should tell you something.

And the “horses mouth” is another genius argument. Because a coach has never covered for a players bad performance instead of calling them out, right? Just last night Bednar said burakovsy “played alright” because he blocked a shot, when he was in fact a poor player. Maybe he didn’t want to call him out publicly… just maybe.

You quoted me when I specifically said that Edmonton has no significant advantage over any other home arena, you have yet to show anything at all, anything, to show that the big bad rogers place is a benefit over other home arenas and their teams. This is was what I was arguing. This has always been what I was arguing. As I’ve stated so many times, but am once again stating it.

Yet I’m making the straw man arguments…

Holy shit man - I dont know if you are being willfully ignorant or just arguing for the sake of it. No one said it was Edmonton exclusive. Some one said Edmonton is a hard barn to play in - which has been substantiated by players and coaches. Thats it.

Maybe just some insecurity as we have a superior fan culture and atmosphere in our arena

 

[Steerpike]

Smith has a .814 save % in game 1’s and a .957 save % in not game 1’s.

I remember Smith doing the opposite to the Avs a few years ago in Calgary. Complete beast to open the series and then crumbled. The talent to be the best goalie in the world appears to be there, he just does a really bad job of not getting in his own head when things go a little bit wrong.

Like, I almost never think people are right when they talk about a goalie being on or off. It's clearly mostly just random variance getting woven into a narrative because our brains like narratives more than they like Poisson distributions.

Smith seems to actually only be able to get a shutout or get pulled.

Actually let's do this for real.

What's the null hypothesis...
That Mike Smith's performance in net is a Poisson distribution with a rate equal to his average rate of giving up goals....

(Insert Poisson distribution graphic)

What we need to show is that his distribution of letting in goals differs from this in a statistically significant way.

The experiment is already poisoned because we're setting it up after the fact, but we'll be bad and just run the numbers anyway.

Lets say a normal performance is letting in 2 3 or 4 goals. If we think Smith is abnormal, he should have abnormal games at a rate a Poisson distribution would only achieve 5% of the time.

(Hold on I need to take my dog for a walk and then scrape Mike Smith's game logs)

 

[Garbageyuk]

I remember Smith doing the opposite to the Avs a few years ago in Calgary. Complete beast to open the series and then crumbled. The talent to be the best goalie in the world appears to be there, he just does a really bad job of not getting in his own head when things go a little bit wrong.

Like, I almost never think people are right when they talk about a goalie being on or off. It's clearly mostly just random variance getting woven into a narrative because our brains like narratives more than they like Poisson distributions.

Smith seems to actually only be able to get a shutout or get pulled.

Actually let's do this for real.

What's the null hypothesis...
That Mike Smith's performance in net is a Poisson distribution with a rate equal to his average rate of giving up goals....

(Insert Poisson distribution graphic)

What we need to show is that his distribution of letting in goals differs from this in a statistically significant way.

The experiment is already poisoned because we're setting it up after the fact, but we'll be bad and just run the numbers anyway.

Lets say a normal performance is letting in 2 3 or 4 goals. If we think Smith is abnormal, he should have abnormal games at a rate a Poisson distribution would only achieve 5% of the time.

(Hold on I need to take my dog for a walk and then scrape Mike Smith's game logs)

You remind me of the guy in Good Will Hunting, the one who gets punked in the bar by Matt Damon.

I’ll be here to ask you “how do you like them apples” when the Oilers eliminate the Avs

 

[Avsfan1921]

Holy shit man - I dont know if you are being willfully ignorant or just arguing for the sake of it. No one said it was Edmonton exclusive. Some one said Edmonton is a hard barn to play in - which has been substantiated by players and coaches. Thats it.

Maybe just some insecurity as we have a superior fan culture and atmosphere in our arena

Weird how the insecurities have you initiating our conversation, not substantiating it and then calling a fan base inferior. Once again, nothing substantial, just name calling

 

[VivaLasVegas]

Smith has a 0.900 against the Avs in the playoffs, there's no reason to expect him to do any better than that in this series.

FWIW, Smith is only one part of the Oilers' defense puzzle, with the other part being that the defensive players in front of him are not good, to be kind.

The real key is Bednar: If he pulls a Sutter and tries to play better defense and thus slows down the game, as opposed to just trying to outscore the Oilers, there is no reason to suspect that the Avs will do much better than the Flames, particularly with a backup goalie. By contrast, if Bednar can just keep the foot on the gas, the Avs should win comfortably albeit their defensive statistics will look awful.

Last night, Bednar took his foot off the gas somewhere in the bottom of the 2nd period and almost paid for it. He can't do that again.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

Weird how the insecurities have you initiating our conversation, not substantiating it and then calling a fan base inferior. Once again, nothing substantial, just name calling

Yeah sorry I quoted you on a message board made for conversation


Decades of player testimony = substantiating

 

[Dust]

FWIW, Smith is only one part of the Oilers' defense puzzle, with the other part being that the defensive players in front of him are not good, to be kind.

The real key is Bednar: If he pulls a Sutter and tries to play better defense and thus slows down the game, as opposed to just trying to outscore the Oilers, there is no reason to suspect that the Avs will do much better than the Flames, particularly with a backup goalie. By contrast, if Bednar can just keep the foot on the gas, the Avs should win comfortably albeit their defensive statistics will look awful.

Last night, Bednar took his foot off the gas somewhere in the bottom of the 2nd period and almost paid for it. He can't do that again.

fwiw I don't think Sutter really tried anything until game 5. He was just rolling lines and watching his mismatches get crushed by McDavid and Drai. Slowest D pairing - toss em out there 4on4.

 

[Avsfan1921]

Yeah sorry I quoted you on a message board made for conversation


Decades of player testimony = substantiating

Again, decades of generalizations, about all home barns… keep moving them goalposts bud

 

[Forgot About Drai]

Again, decades of generalizations, about all home barns… keep moving them goalposts bud

All these legendary hostile arenas and fanbases (Anfield, Oracle, Cameron Crazies) are just works of the home team PR I guess. The opposing players are just agreeing just for fun too...

 

[Avsfan1921]

All these legendary hostile arenas and fanbases (Anfield, Oracle, Cameron Crazies) are just works of the home team PR I guess. The opposing players are just agreeing just for fun too...

Now you get it, thank you