Washington REALLY helped by Kempny trade

[Toews2Bickell]

I just don't agree on this one, as I've stated above in numerous posts. I don't want to tie up 10m in cap space on another player. That would mean Toews, Kane, Tavares, and Seabs make up 45% of your cap. I think it's just not worth it to put the team in cap hell, and lose all depth in the process. Tavares signing without anything else being done means Hino and Hayden aren't going to get contracts as RFAs. There just wouldn't be enough cap space unless Tavares comes in around 8m and Hino/Hayden only get about 1-1.5m apiece, which is probably not realistic in any way.

I just don't see any way to bring Tavares in without decimating the bottom 6, which means you're not winning anyways. There are too many holes to fill. It's not like Tavares puts this team into contender status all on his own. There are too many holes on D, in net, and in the bottom 6 then.

By the way, Pittsburgh has Sid, Malkin, Kessel, and Letang locked up to ~42-45% of future cap. Hawks wouldn’t be that far off from them.

And you don’t skip out on a guy like Tavares because it might cost you Hayden and Hinostroza. Already mentioned they wouldn’t necessarily lose them if they shed AA or Hossa and cap goes to 80mm.

Also need to factor in a non-zero chance Seabrook gets the compliance buyout.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Right, that's all I'm pointing out with the Tavares lineups/dreams people are having. It would have to have absolutely everything go the Hawk's way. Everything. And still leaves questions/holes in places.

As far as Hino, I think he's worth 2x3 or something along those lines. He's probably going to round into a 25-35 point bottom 6 forward. He was underrated big time last year on here. I was guilty of it, and had to eat crow on him.

Yeah, I don't think everything has to go right, they just have to be willing to part with nothing for AA potentially, and give up a 2nd or 3rd for a team to take Hossa. You could always replace Nash with a 900k player and save an extra 1mil there too.

Hino may be worth around 2mil, but if he's the difference between getting JT or not, you trade him.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Like I edited, also. That's figuring on what cost of the rookie drafted at #8? Because you figure 1-2m there, at least, with performance bonuses. So you're down to like 2-3m for a top 4 D?

I factored in 925k, you worry about the performance bonuses later. Unlikely a player picked at 8 will hit them anyway.

 

[ChiHawks10]

By the way, Pittsburgh has Sid, Malkin, Kessel, and Letang locked up to ~42-45% of future cap. Hawks wouldn’t be that far off from them.

And you don’t skip out on a guy like Tavares because it might cost you Hayden and Hinostroza. Already mentioned they wouldn’t necessarily lose them if they shed AA or Hossa and cap goes to 80mm.

Also need to factor in a non-zero chance Seabrook gets the compliance buyout.

Not a good comparison at all.

Sid > Toews
Letang > Seabs
Malkin = Tavares
Kane > Kessel (usually)

And the Pens' supporting cast is far better than the current Hawks' supporting cast.

 

[ChiHawks10]

I factored in 925k, you worry about the performance bonuses later. Unlikely a player picked at 8 will hit them anyway.

Depends on the bonuses. I would venture a guess that most the guys in the top 10 of this year's draft, if in the NHL, will hit a lot of their performance bonuses.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Yeah, I don't think everything has to go right, they just have to be willing to part with nothing for AA potentially, and give up a 2nd or 3rd for a team to take Hossa. You could always replace Nash with a 900k player and save an extra 1mil there too.

Hino may be worth around 2mil, but if he's the difference between getting JT or not, you trade him.

I don't think Hino is the difference. I think the numerous holes/question marks scattered up and down the lineup is the difference. If the Hawks were closer to being a contender, then sure, try to sign Tavares. I just don't see Tavares making the Hawks from a non-playoff team into a contender. Not with all the other issues, including piss-poor coaching.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Not a good comparison at all.

Sid > Toews
Letang > Seabs
Malkin = Tavares
Kane > Kessel

And the Pens' supporting cast is far better than the current Hawks' supporting cast.

I wouldn’t say their supporting cast is far better. They have Guentzel, he equates to Schmaltz. They do not have a DeBrincat type sniper outside Kessel. Their D has the edge but they won a cup with Daley playing a f*** ton, Justin Schultz 6 months removed from being hot garbage and Dumolin being a bust. Healthy Crow and a top 6 with Toews, Tavares, Kane, Cat, Schmaltz, Saad is going to win a lot of games.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

Not a good comparison at all.

Sid > Toews
Letang > Seabs
Malkin = Tavares
Kane > Kessel (usually)

And the Pens' supporting cast is far better than the current Hawks' supporting cast.

Not to mention, that if Tavares cost, 10+, then he, Toews and Kane would be the 3 highest players in that group too.

 

[ChiHawks10]

I wouldn’t say their supporting cast is far better. They have Guentzel, he equates to Schmaltz. They do not have a DeBrincat type sniper outside Kessel. Their D has the edge but they won a cup with Daley playing a **** ton, Justin Schultz 6 months removed from being hot garbage and Dumolin being a bust. Healthy Crow and a top 6 with Toews, Tavares, Kane, Cat, Schmaltz, Saad is going to win a lot of games.

You're also banking on a healthy Crow... who, pardon me, is a huge question mark based upon my inside knowledge of the situation(and no I'm not going to say why, or how, this discussion already happened on here a while back). I mean... the guy has fallen off the face of the earth for 7 or 8 months at this point... No appearances, no sightings at the rinks(MB or UC), no press box, no interviews... do the math. What is going on with Crow is very much a bad, bad thing. The goalies next year may be Forsberg and Delia...

I do think their supporting cast would be far better than if the Hawks signed Tavares, lost some bottom 6 guys because of it, and had only inexperienced rookies playing in their place.

I'm normally super optimistic about this team, but I just think throwing 10m at Tavares is a huge mistake when this team has so many holes and question marks. He does not make this team a contender next year, IMO. So signing him is pointless to me, with where the Hawks currently stand.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

You're also banking on a healthy Crow... who, pardon me, is a huge question mark based upon my inside knowledge of the situation(and no I'm not going to say why, or how, this discussion already happened on here a while back). I mean... the guy has fallen off the face of the earth for 7 or 8 months at this point... No appearances, no sightings at the rinks(MB or UC), no press box, no interviews... do the math. What is going on with Crow is very much a bad, bad thing. The goalies next year may be Forsberg and Delia...

I do think their supporting cast would be far better than if the Hawks signed Tavares, lost some bottom 6 guys because of it, and had only inexperienced rookies playing in their place.

I'm normally super optimistic about this team, but I just think throwing 10m at Tavares is a huge mistake when this team has so many holes and question marks. He does not make this team a contender next year, IMO. So signing him is pointless to me, with where the Hawks currently stand.

Why I’m personally intrigued to go for Tavares is they can very easily have 15m+ in cap if they move Hossa, Anisimov and Rutta, plus cap ceiling of say 80m (and keep Hino, Hayden, etc). And thus far I haven’t thought of a way I’d like to see them spend it other than Tavares.

Maybe JVR plus De Haan is a smarter way to use the 10m (6 and 4 aav, respectively). I just don’t want them to sit on the money when a special player is out there for grabs and they have the dry powder to get him.

For me he falls in the ‘figure out a way to bring him into your org and figure out the rest later’ category.

 

[BK]

No thanks on JVR.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

I like the idea of going after Evander Kane instead. Should be a similar AAV but could afford more long term cap flexibility since teams might only offer him 4 years max due to his image as a headache to deal with. Plus he brings some of what Hawks could use. Would be a nice fit with Saad and Toews.

Saad-Toews-E Kane
DeBrincat-Schmaltz-Kane
Hinostroza-Anisimov-Sikura

Decent top 9.

 

[ChiHawks10]

I like the idea of going after Evander Kane instead. Should be a similar AAV but could afford more long term cap flexibility since teams might only offer him 4 years max due to his image as a headache to deal with. Plus he brings some of what Hawks could use. Would be a nice fit with Saad and Toews.

Saad-Toews-E Kane
DeBrincat-Schmaltz-Kane
Hinostroza-Anisimov-Sikura

Decent top 9.

EK's off-ice antics/headcase reputation is the big knock against him for me.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

DeHaan is getting closer to six than four imo. Pass on E. Kane.

It's a lot easier to build and acquire bottom six talent than franchise types. I don't think Tavares leaves long island but I'd take him at ten million all day.

 

[BK]

Pass on Evander Kane.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

This team doesn't need wing help.

 

[Hawkaholic]

I'm normally super optimistic about this team, but I just think throwing 10m at Tavares is a huge mistake when this team has so many holes and question marks. He does not make this team a contender next year, IMO. So signing him is pointless to me, with where the Hawks currently stand.

I don't see a better way to get this team to contender status than adding a top 10 player in the league. You aren't going to make it better giving questionable top 6 and questionable top 4D on contracts that are worth more than the player is. Do we have time to wait for the current prospects plus new ones to hopefully be legit top 6 players? Only other option I see is to wait it out until next year and sign one of the big UFA Dmen that may be available. This mess isn't getting fixed with the DeHaans, Stastnys and JvRs.

 

[Bubba88]

Bowman can figure it out later what to do with Cap and D going Forward. Just sign Tavares, the only UFA I'd really want to pay.

 

[Rolo]

This team needs a reliable 4th line (ala Kruger) that Q can depend on for tough matchups, and two top 4 dmen. I think the forward core is pretty good and young.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

This team needs a reliable 4th line (ala Kruger) that Q can depend on for tough matchups, and two top 4 dmen. I think the forward core is pretty good and young.

I agree with this. What if Tyler Bozak is willing to take a cheap deal? He’s good at draws, and defensively, plus he’s a veteran who could handle a really tough role like that.

 

[Hawkaholic]

I wouldn't mind Bozak, but probably not at the term or dollar he will get.

 

[Robsker]

@Robsker you are forgetting something really significant: our current players could/will develop to better players.

In fantasy world, if we had Tavares, our forward core would be very, very good. Or are you slotting Sikura and Hinostroza in to 4th line so you can get two better 3rd liners?

I’m not saying you are completely wrong with your post but it just seemed like you are forgetting natural developing. Of course our D would not still be enough (well if Forsling goes full McAvoy mode, Keith goes 2015 form and Rutta is the new Kevan Miller).

If we’d acquire Karlsson, our team would look like this:

DeBrincat - Toews - Saad
Hayden - Schmaltz - Kane
Sikura - Anisimov - Hinostroza
Kahun - Kämpf - Wingels

Keith - Karlsson
Forsling - Murphy
Gustafsson - Rutta
Seabrook

That doesnt look bad at all if Toews plays better, Kane is Kane, Keith plays better and young guys plays at least in last seasons form. Adding Karlsson could be huge.

Of course he would command 10mil per and rightfully so, but I am just talking about next year and if the team wants to win, that team could do it if all stars are in right order.

You hit a great point --- that this is all somewhat of a crap-shoot. If I am right (and I may be) then getting a Karlsson is a bad move. If you are right (and you are just as likely to be right as me) then it could be a good move. This convinces me that with so much as unknowns the job that Bowman has is very, very difficult and so I cut guys like him (GM's) a great deal of slack. We just do not know. Still... even if the Hawks next year do have most --- or all --- the "stars in the right order" I would think they make the playoffs sure... but could they advance once in? Probably not. So I hedge in starting the process for the future now. Then again, I am no GM --- just a fan guessing. I might be off base.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

I don't see a better way to get this team to contender status than adding a top 10 player in the league. You aren't going to make it better giving questionable top 6 and questionable top 4D on contracts that are worth more than the player is. Do we have time to wait for the current prospects plus new ones to hopefully be legit top 6 players? Only other option I see is to wait it out until next year and sign one of the big UFA Dmen that may be available. This mess isn't getting fixed with the DeHaans, Stastnys and JvRs.

This is exactly where I stand on what to spend the 10m+ in cap space. Tavares is a franchise centerman that immediately becomes 1a/1b best player on team with Kane. Very high probability his future production justifies his AAV. So in that sense its actually a low risk deal despite the total dollar amount of the likely contract. He’s the kind of guy you add and figure out the cap later. Essentially the same scenario that the Hawks faced when they signed Hossa.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

This is exactly where I stand on what to spend the 10m+ in cap space. Tavares is a franchise centerman that immediately becomes 1a/1b best player on team with Kane. Very high probability his future production justifies his AAV. So in that sense its actually a low risk deal despite the total dollar amount of the likely contract. He’s the kind of guy you add and figure out the cap later. Essentially the same scenario that the Hawks faced when they signed Hossa.

Hossa was half the cap hit that Tavares will be.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Hossa was half the cap hit that Tavares will be.

Evaluating a signing that was near ten years ago on an absolute dollar aav is terrible analysis. At least compare it as a % of 2018-19 cap and projections for 2019-2020, etc. Also need to factor in manipulation with dummy years on back half of Hossa deal. I would guess the % of cap would be in a similar ballpark with or without the dummy years.

Edit: Hossa was ~9% with manipulated aav. Tavares would be ~12% give or take.