You are telling us that you have seen very little of him, but at the end you are telling us what he will become??? Think about it again. I guessed you missed something.
W Joshua Roy - Laval Rocket, AHL (2021, 150th, MTL)
- Thread starter Andy Lehoux
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? I have an opinion, i caveat that opinion by saying I’ve seen him a few times this year. In addition I’ve seen and read folks like Montreal who follow him more closely then I to generate my opinion.
I guess you missed that part of life where you can have opinions with limited knowledge.
I had no idea about his age. So literally 1 month is what separates him from being a 150th pick and a potential top 10 pick (based on his stats). He is playing this year like he would be in the top 10 discussion if drafted this year. I've said it before but 2021 could have many steals...and Roy is trending that way.
What is even more impressive is there is only 2 other players on his team with over 40 points, and he has 78points so everything goes through him.
it’s not a situation where it’s a stacked line and all 3 players have crazy high points. He drives the offense
it’s not a situation where it’s a stacked line and all 3 players have crazy high points. He drives the offense
You do realize that most teams in the Q don't even have 3 players with more than 40 points at this stage of the season right?
He is driving the offense for his team to be sure and looks more driven this year than last but let's keep things a bit real here, he still is a longshot to even become a NHL regular for any length of time.
Well maybe that’s because of him helping them get to 40pts. I wouldn’t say he’s a long shot, but I wouldn’t say he’s a lock either. I’d say he has a good chance.
One of last cuts at WJ in his 18 year old year, leading the Q in scoring above former first round draft picks. There’s evidence there to say that he’s not long shot. Not saying it’s a sure thing, it never is, but he’s not a long shot
It's not a surprise that he is leading former first rounder's in scoring in the Q, heck he is a former #1 overall in the Q.
He has made great strides this year but even the Habs thought he was a longshot by drafting him so late and others ahead of him.
his skillset is awesome but he also has limitations that will be tested at the AHL then NHL level, we see this kind of player alot and the exceptions make it, most don't.
What has me hopeful is his age. He could have legitimately been a blue-chip prospect in this year's draft. He's young and has already improved by leaps and bounds, particularly his compete level, focus and playmaking. He has plenty of time to improve his skating and strength and that will come in the next 2 to 3 years so long as he is committed to it.
Kid is by no means a sure-fire NHLer. He has lots to work on but the things you can't teach, and the high-level talent he has in spades.
Sure last year the was a long shot but I think he’s answered a lot of the questions that made him a long shot . In a redraft or in this years draft, he’s probably a 1st round pick. I wouldn’t call any 1st round player 1 year out of his draft a long shot or else he wouldn’t have been drafted in the first round.
The fall of Roy to the end of the fifth round is not due to covid. It is one of the worst case of scouting malpractice by the whole NHL, Habs included. Roy dominated Midget AAA at 15, like Lafrenière. The he was first overall pick in the Q in 2019. After that, he got 44 points at 16, which is good, and one point per game at 17 which is also good for a very young player in his draft year, his birthdate is August 6.
Yes the kid was overweight in his draft year, and not in good physical condition, but nothing to warrant a drop to #150. Despite his bad physical condition he got one point per game as one of the youngest player in his draft year. His level of talent was obvious since at least age 15. His problems were off the ice, eating and training habits. I understand that these problems could have led to a drop at the end of the second round, or the beginning of the third, but never to the end of the fifth round. Real elite talent is so rare, you cannot pass on it like that, even if the player has some issues to resolve. The Habs were very lucky to get him at #150. They passed five times on Roy between the end of the second round and the middle of the fifth round.
A case similar to Tom Brady. Brady was not overweight, he was too thin an totally non athletic, very slow, but he had talent and was a very good QB at Michigan in real games. Often scouts get lost in stuff outside of the talent of the player. I am not saying Roy will be the GOAT in the NHL like Brady in the NFL, but there is a comparison to be made because both had physical issues that led them at the bottom of their draft, and in both cases, scouts overlooked the talent and the production on the field/ice.
Yes the kid was overweight in his draft year, and not in good physical condition, but nothing to warrant a drop to #150. Despite his bad physical condition he got one point per game as one of the youngest player in his draft year. His level of talent was obvious since at least age 15. His problems were off the ice, eating and training habits. I understand that these problems could have led to a drop at the end of the second round, or the beginning of the third, but never to the end of the fifth round. Real elite talent is so rare, you cannot pass on it like that, even if the player has some issues to resolve. The Habs were very lucky to get him at #150. They passed five times on Roy between the end of the second round and the middle of the fifth round.
A case similar to Tom Brady. Brady was not overweight, he was too thin an totally non athletic, very slow, but he had talent and was a very good QB at Michigan in real games. Often scouts get lost in stuff outside of the talent of the player. I am not saying Roy will be the GOAT in the NHL like Brady in the NFL, but there is a comparison to be made because both had physical issues that led them at the bottom of their draft, and in both cases, scouts overlooked the talent and the production on the field/ice.
It is kind of rare for 18yo to be top scorers in the Q tho. You mostly see 19-20 yo do it, and a lot of them don't amount to anything. Doing it at 18yo is another story... but of course he's not a perfect proapect, there are very few of those in the world
The whole "he would be a first round pick in a redraft" is very iffy and mostly based on stat watching IMO.
Sure he is having a great D+1 year but that's not exactly how to view any draft less than 1 year out, even more so in a Coivid season.
Don't get me wrong Roy is doing better than even the Habs expected (otherwise they wouldn't have picked 6 players before him in the draft) but he is still a longshot as the jump from the Q to the aHL then NHL is larger than many think.
Nico Cauzuki
Registered User
Exactly his "talent" has never been in question, it's skating and athleticism and drive but he seems to have made progress, time will tell.
45% of the posters in this thread are saying he is a steal purely by watching stats (mostly Habs fans)
45% of the posters in this thread are saying he is a long shot purely by his draft position (mostly other teams fans)
8% of the posters in this thread are providing evaluations based on a limited amount of viewings of this kid (mostly Q fans)
2% of the posters in this thread are providing evaluations based on numerous viewings of this kid over several years (hardcore Q fans)
I am in the first category
45% of the posters in this thread are saying he is a long shot purely by his draft position (mostly other teams fans)
8% of the posters in this thread are providing evaluations based on a limited amount of viewings of this kid (mostly Q fans)
2% of the posters in this thread are providing evaluations based on numerous viewings of this kid over several years (hardcore Q fans)
I am in the first category
Captain97
Registered User
I think a better description would be, he would be a first round pick if he was 1 month younger. Because at that age he'd be in the upcoming 2022 draft.
Doc5
Registered User
- Aug 8, 2012
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Has a player that put up more than 1.7-1.8 (being conservative Roy is at 1.95 right now) PPG ever fell out of the first round?
Sure and If I was even half as good a hockey player that I am when dreaming at night, people would be talking about the Big 5 but that's a different universe as is your suggestion.
Mike Ribeiro was a second rounder (125 in 67)
Ramzi Abid was a second rounder (135 in 68)
Stephan Lebeau was not drafted (146 in 72)
Ramzi Abid was a second rounder (135 in 68)
Stephan Lebeau was not drafted (146 in 72)
Different times in a very different QMJHL.
Roy has definitely made massive strides. Getting out of SJ has definitely helped him as he had some major attitude issues during his time there as well. He has all the skills to be an elite talent in the NHL, he just needs to commit to staying in shape and working on his skating. Those really are the only two things holding him back
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I think you need to era adjust those stats for them to have any meaning whatsoever.
The world has been a mess for the last two years and what would been considered to norms of evaluation should be tossed out of the window. Come back in 5 years and we will see what we have right now. Hankering for popcorn.
DrSense
Registered User
- Oct 4, 2017
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Another way to look at it is to compare Roy to some players born within 90 days of him, but eligible for the '22 draft.
The top ranked forward in the Q for the '22 draft is Nathan Gaucher, typically ranked in the 20's. A clear projected 1st round pick on average, ranked by 9 of 12 rankings at elite prospect as a 1st rounder. He's ranked 20th by Bobby Mac and 16th by CSS.
Gaucher is a November '03, while Roy is an August '03. They would have played at the same level all the way through junior hockey and both are playing in their 3rd season in the Q. For all intents and purposes, they are the same age.
Gaucher is 6'3, 207, wears an 'A' and has 63 PIMs. But he only has 31 points in 44 games.
Roy is obviously smaller and not as physical, but with 78 points in 40 games, the skill difference is pretty obvious.
Who would you take? I haven't watched Gaucher, so I can't provide an informed opinion, but at a high level, I'm definitely taking a potential top 6 forward in Roy, rather than a safer, lower upside player like Gaucher (generally speaking, not being familiar with his skillset, but knowing how that production generally translates at the NHL level historically).
All that said, I think Roy if eligible for this draft would likely be late 1st. The lack of elite speed and size generally provides a bit of a scare to teams to swing early, because he is really boom or bust. Some teams might have Gaucher higher on their draft board, some not. But in the end, the point remains the Habs got a steal with Roy. Scouts HATE drafting a guy like Roy, because they are afraid of looking stupid on a smaller guy. It really is a fascinating bias that can be seen relatively consistently. Brayden Point is a perfect example.
Jack Skellington
Registered User
- Sep 29, 2017
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Roy is 6'0" so I don't know what you're talking about with regards to his size. He has very average size, not a problem at all. He's not a goalie or defenseman. And if he succeeds in the NHL he'll end up listed as 6'1" since everyone always wins an inch when they succeed, which is the NHL average.
