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Blue Jays Discussion: Vladdy named ASG MVP. Draft Over. Now all that's left is the trade deadline

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TheMadHatTrick said:
Who are we liking at our pick?
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Reds just took Andrew Abbott.

I would love Bubba Chandler but no way he falls nor do we have the money. Jays obviously should take BPA but drafting a CF would be ideal.

If we didn’t sign Springer, we would be on the clock right now.
 
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phillipmike said:
Wonder if the Jays have a deal worked out with Doug Nikhazy in the 3rd round, Gunnar Hoglund’s teammate from Ole Miss.

The scouting report doesn’t move the needle but worth a shot.

Also worth noting that Mayo called the Hoglund pick for the Jays in his Mock this morning.
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Nikhazy goes to Cleveland.
 
phillipmike said:
Reds just took Andrew Abbott.

I would love Bubba Chandler but no way he falls nor do we have the money. Jays obviously should take BPA but drafting a CF would be ideal.

If we didn’t sign Springer, we would be on the clock right now.
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I have interest in Ky Bush and McCade Brown, Matt Mikulski if they're still available. Seth Lonsway in maybe the 6th round.

Wouldn't be suprised if we grabbed Tommy Mace, who we've been connected to. He's a Senior, I think, so we might be able to save some money.
 
If he makes it it's probably gonna be Tommy Mace. We've been connected to him. We love Florida. And he's a Senior (I think) so we could save some money.
 
Our slot for the 3rd round pick is just $647,000. We'll find out if we expect to save any money on Hoglund depending on who we pick I think. Our pool really isn't there to grab any faller, unless they're planning on punting a ton of picks at the end of the Top 10 which I don't think we'll do.
 
Canadian Eric Cerantola would be interesting in the mid rounds. Great size, upper 90s velo, plus curve, but something like 40 control.
 
Shapiro was in Cleveland when they were in a similar position when they took Brady Aiken (projected top pick with Tommy John) in 2015 with the 17th overall pick.

With their 2nd pick in the draft they took Tristian McKenzie but they still had their 2nd round pick and got a competitive balance pick. But with their third round pick (93rd overall, Jays have 91st this year), Cleveland took 2B Mark Mathias and signed him for $550,000.

So unless we are getting a good discount on Hoglund, i suspect we are grabbing a collegiate player, probably a bat.
 
Also - Clemson football/baseball looks like they might win BIG with Will Taylor and Bubba Chandler. It doesn't look like anyone is going to have the money to pay them, considering that the teams that went underslot in the 1st have went elsewhere.
 
Our total pool is $5,775,000 so the 5% overage is $288,750 so we could go as high as $936,050 at this pick and pay slot everywhere else. That's roughly equivalent to the slot for the 69th pick.

If we were willing to punt the 4th round for someone who signs for 1k we could potentially go to $1,408,750 only punting the 4th round and paying slot everywhere else. That's equivalent to the 52nd overall pick

edit: Just trying to build to the 43rd overall equivalent because @Morgs wants Gage Jump :sarcasm:
 
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2 years in a row now Baltimore has heavily underslotted at a top pick and gone college twice in a row thereafter. Last year they went HS in round 4 and 5, so I assume they might still spend some of that money later
 
metafour said:
This is entirely semantics. Anything above a "mid-rotation upside" writeup is extremely rare even for the best pitching prospects, because for a guy to become a "#1 or #2" guy at the MLB level it requires the development of complementary traits which you simply can't eyeball at the amateur level. Sure, you can take an educated estimate in terms of pitchability, command, poise, consistency, etc. based off of what the amateur is showing to date, but those qualities don't really cement one way or the other until you actually see the MLB package. And even then you can find lots of guys who all of a sudden uncovered these traits after several MLB seasons, like Robbie Ray. Guys who at no point in time were ever considered to have "frontline starter upside" - like Shane Bieber - become frontline starters.

Long story short: when a guy who has Top 10 ability carries a "mid-rotation upside" writeup, it's mostly just for safety purposes because no one can truly project an "ace" except for unicorn-type prospects like Verlander or Strasburg. TJ Zeuch does not belong in the "mid-rotation" category, and he's not even remotely comparable to Hoglund.
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I get what your saying Metafour but there's a big difference between saying someone is a future ace and top of the rotation starter. Mid rotation is generally a 3/4.
 
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TheBeastCoast said:
I really don't think their farm is at that point at all. They will absolutely push into the top 5 systems in the league but I think you are over stating their system a tad bit.
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No not at all IMO. They are already a top 5 system. I think they have a better system than the Jays.

Prior to the draft, FG has them ranked 3rd in future value. Only the Rays and Jays are ahead of them. Both teams will lose players to graduations and trades. Rays will loose Franco, Wells, Brujan and others. Jays will lose Kirk, Manoah and others to trade.

I can’t see anyone below them adding better or more talent.

2021 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

Pirates won’t lose anyone and will add Henry Davis and Anthony Solometo. Davis is the best hitter in the draft and Solometo is a top 5 arm in terms of talent.

They pretty much already have 8 prospects in the top 100 according to FG.

2021 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs
 
dredeye said:
I get what your saying Metafour but there's a big difference between saying someone is a future ace and top of the rotation starter. Mid rotation is generally a 3/4.
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Read the reports for this year; who has a "top of the rotation starter" upside? Leiter? Is that basically it? All of the HS kids are too risky to project that. Even Kumar Rocker has doubts past "mid-rotation starter", hence why he went #10 overall.

It's entirely semantics. Hoglund is a Top 10 talent which means that if healthy he has the talent to be a #3 or better. The "or better" part depends on development and what happens - for example, he certainly has the command/control to become a #2 if everything clicks and lets say his fastball improves a tick.
 
Pirates go Chandler. See if they still have enough money left to pay him. I assume they wouldn't take him yet if they didn't think they could
 
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