Blue Jays Discussion: Vladdy named ASG MVP. Draft Over. Now all that's left is the trade deadline

[Canada4Gold]

I want Dirk Ziegler and I want McGuire to be his battery mate.

With all our catching prospect depth if McGuire is still here in 4 years to be his battery mate I'm going to be sad all the funny jokes me damned.

 

[metafour]

Kiley McDaniel had Hoglund at #20 on his final big-board.

20. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss

Locked to go in the top 10 picks (above-average stuff, plus command, great performance) until undergoing Tommy John surgery this spring, but still likely goes by the 20th pick.

 

[TGB]

I am not worried about the Jays signing him. This management group has signed all of its top picks.

That and an injured young pitcher who will have nothing better to do during his senior year than finish his education is very unlikely to turn down $3million especially since he likely thought his injury pushed him out of the biggest 1st round bonuses.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Canada4Gold]

DSL season starts tomorrow. Jays top 5 IFA 2021 signings including Manual Beltre all on the roster

 

[hockeywiz542]

Ex-Fivay High pitcher Gunnar Hoglund goes to Blue Jays on Day 1 | Tampa Bay Times/St. Pete Times

Former Fivay High pitcher Gunnar Hoglund was selected 19th overall by the Blue Jays during Sunday’s first round of the amateur draft.

Hoglund initially was drafted 36th overall by the Pirates out of high school in 2018 but chose to go to college at Mississippi. This past season with the Rebels, he had a 2.87 ERA through 11 starts and 62⅔ innings, striking out 96 and walking 17.

But in May, the 6-foot-4, 220-pound junior had Tommy John surgery, which made some experts wonder how far he might drop.

“Whether it’s in high school or college ... teams feel like they can rehabilitate guys,” ESPN’s Jeff Passan said. “Most of them come back better than ever having gone through Tommy John surgery. At the same time, you run the risk when a guy’s arm has been cut, that he’s not going to recover or will have a difficult time doing so."

“It’s why Gunnar Hoglund, for example, went 20th as opposed to fifth or sixth or top 10 like he could have been.”

The approximate pick value for 19th is $3.36 million as opposed to anywhere from $6.18 million to $4.74 million for picks 5-10.

The moment @GunnarHoglund will remember forever #MLBDraft pic.twitter.com/lN2Vv6H8FD
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) July 12, 2021

At Fivay, Hoglund had 105 strikeouts and just two walks his senior year, going 7-0, with a 0.27 ERA. He also hit .385 with four home runs. The Tampa Bay Times’ North Suncoast Pitcher of the Year and graduate of Dayspring Academy in Port Richey recorded 310 strikeouts and 30 walks in his prep career.

“What works for Hoglund more than anything is that slider,” ESPN analyst Eduardo Perez said. “It’s a nasty slider. And the velocity, yes it’s there, but having command of that secondary pitch, I think that’s what’s really going to elevate him to a higher level.”

Also from ESPN’s draft analysis: Before the injury, his velocity had ticked up from his first two years in college, sitting 93-96 mph, and all four of his pitches graded out as 55s or higher.

 

[stickty111]

Davidi said Jays had been showing interest in Hoglund for years, and it didn't lower even when the injury occurred.

 

[phillipmike]

Scouting Three Potential First Round Arms

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi

Statistics: 62.2 IP, 40 H, 7 HR, 17 BB, 96 K

2021 Year In Review: Hoglund recorded double-digit strikeouts in five of his first six starts. He was pitching well in conference play before his elbow went pop on May 7 in the first inning against Texas A&M. He had Tommy John surgery one week later.

Physical Description: 6-foot-4, 220 pounds. Physical kid with power frame. Sturdy lower half. Athletic feel to movements and fields his position well.

Delivery: Upright, top-heavy delivery. Stays tall throughout. Pretty easy, low-effort look with high three-quarters release point. In control of body. Generally on-line with good momentum towards the plate.

Fastball (59%): 91-94, touch 96. Frankly, have some concerns here. It’s average velocity in today’s world with no more than average shape. The pitch found way too many barrels at the college level, with opponents slugging .473 against it this spring. Needs to be precise with it and can be at times, showing the ability to utilize all four quadrants, but mistakes get punished.

Slider (31%): Nasty, impactful pitch. Present plus at the big league level. Can manipulate the pitch from the low-to-upper-80s to provide different looks in terms of velocity and break. Big spinner with heavy late bite. Threw 306 sliders this spring and allowed just five hits against the pitch. Command of the pitch is an absolute delight. Can get swings-and-misses in the zone and knows how to bury it effectively. Threw a handful of mid-70s curveballs in February. Has trouble locating it, but could be used as an early count strike stealer.

Changeup (10%): Doesn’t throw a lot of them, but he should. Future 50-55 offering with good arm-speed deception. Fades away from left-handed hitters nicely and produces some awkward swings.

Summary: Super-famous arm who spurned the Pirates as a first-round pick in 2018 and has performed for scouts for half a decade. Big appeal to off-speed offerings, as between pure stuff and command, the breaking ball is one of the best in the draft, and the changeup has potential to be another above-average pitch. Worries about the fastball in terms of velocity and pitch shape. Would completely re-vamp usage in the pros, and argue for nearly doubling breaking ball usage. Mid-rotation ceiling. Should be ready to go early in 2022 with typical rehab schedule.

Recommended Bonus: $3,250,000 pending medical review.

 

[hockeywiz542]

2021 MLB Draft: First round live tracker, picks by team, grades, analysis, best available prospects and more - The Athletic

Blue Jays draft Ole Miss right-hander Gunnar Hoglund at No. 19

By Keith Law

July 11, 2021 at 9:20 PM EDT

We have our first Tommy John pick of the night -- three guys on my top 100 had undergone the procedure this spring, and the Jays took Ole Miss right-hander Gunnar Hoglund, who could have been a top-10 pick had he stayed healthy all year, because of his above-average stuff and strong feel to pitch. He's more of a command/control guy than a power arm and may lack the plus pitch to be more than a mid-rotation starter, but he attacks hitters, throws strikes, and -- weird to say about a guy currently rehabbing -- looks like he should be able to handle a starter's workload.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Davidi said Jays had been showing interest in Hoglund for years, and it didn't lower even when the injury occurred.

Via the Shi article where he mentions this, I like that he has had communication with Matt Bishoff going back to high school. We don't usually hear a ton about the scouts(and now regional supervisor) but Bishoff seems like he has a decent record with Bichette and Pearson coming to mind. I tend to trust things more when I hear he's attached.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Canada4Gold]

Scouting Three Potential First Round Arms

Didn't realize he was a 1st round(competitive balance round) pick in 2018. Obviously expect him to sign but curious how that happened back then since that's fair rare for early picks.

4 guys didn't sign that year up to the end of that round at 43, Gunnar and Matt McLain both went earlier this year. JT Ginn went later in last years draft, for overslot though, and Carter Stewart is presumably still playing in Japan after signing a big contract over there after not agreeing with AA and the Braves on 8th overall money. I assume he's planning to develop over there and sign an MLB contract once he ages out of the IFA system. Not sure how his development is going, not a name I've heard in a while.

That 3.25 million estimate would be a hair underslot, but a close to negligible 109k.

 

[phillipmike]

MLB draft tracker updates: Results and analysis for every 2021 first-round pick

19. Toronto Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss

Who is Hoglund? A supplemental first-round pick by the Pirates out of high school (36th overall), Hoglund ended up at Mississippi due to concerns about his post-draft physical. He looked like a potential top-five overall pick early this season, before injuring his elbow and undergoing Tommy John surgery. Before the injury, his velocity had ticked up from his first two years in college, sitting 93-96, and all four of his pitches graded out as 55s or higher. If he bounces back, he could be a steal -- think of the Dodgers taking Walker Buehler 24th overall in 2015.

Why the Blue Jays took him here: his is a good roll of the dice by the Blue Jays, as Hoglund would have gone higher if he had been healthy. Before going down, Hoglund had fanned 96 in 62 2/3 innings, so there is a potential high-ceiling strikeout pitcher here if he bounces back. -- Schoenfield

MLB Draft: Analyzing Every First-Round Pick

No. 19 Toronto Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi
Hoglund had been a supplemental first-round pick to the Pirates in 2018, but he elected to head to Ole Miss, where he quickly became a mainstay in the Rebels’ weekend rotation. Hoglund pitched to a 2.87 ERA before his junior season was cut short in May by an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, but the improvement he made with his fastball and slider before the injury bodes well for his shot with the Blue Jays.

2021 MLB Draft tracker: Results, every first-round pick as Henry Davis goes No. 1; Kumar Rocker to Mets

19

Blue Jays

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss: Hoglund, who could've been named after a one-off "King of the Hill" character voiced by Jeff Bridges, was in the top 10 prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery in May. The operation seems certain to wipe out most of his 2022 season, putting him on track to make his professional debut around August of next year, give or take a few weeks. Hoglund should prove to be worth the wait. He possesses good command over a deep arsenal that's rich with spin, including a slider that has cutter-like qualities. The upside here is a mid-rotation starter, possibly a tick more in the hands of the right player development system.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[hockeywiz542]

Blue Jays discuss their newest draft pick - TSN.ca

With the 19th pick of the 2021 MLB Draft the Blue Jays selected Gunnar Hoglund from Ole Miss. The right-hander was originally expected to drafted inside the top-10, but after blowing out his elbow in May and having Tommy John surgery Toronto was able to pick him up later in the first-round and are rolling the dice on some big talent.

 

[dredeye]

I'm confused how someone who according to these reports posted has a mid rotation arm as a ceiling was a consensus top ten pick before TJ. Don't get me wrong I like the pick. Just seems odd to me

 

[tronoleaf]

Everytime I hear Jordan Wicks I hear Jordan Hicks

I've heard a few Jays fans that are a little disappointed we took Hoglund instead of this guy

 

[Tony Romo]

Saw this on reddit, would you consider trading Marcus Semien?

 

[dredeye]

Saw this on reddit, would you consider trading Marcus Semien?

for what return

 

[Morgs]

Saw this on reddit, would you consider trading Marcus Semien?

Tell me you edited this to Semien after having Stroman to make sure I'm not having a stroke.

I'd consider it if the offer was good enough and the next few weeks don't go according to plan. I'd much rather keep him and go on a run though. Not like we're starving for prospects, but the return we could get for him should be ridiculous.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Saw this on reddit, would you consider trading Marcus Semien?

I don't see the point of it myself. Would have to be a ridiculous return.

 

[canucksfan]

Saw this on reddit, would you consider trading Marcus Semien?

First the Jays would have to suck after the All Star break and the return would have to be good.

 

[canucksfan]

 

[habamillions]

Saw this on reddit, would you consider trading Marcus Semien?

Id consider trading both semien and ray. See how the games go before july 30th. Have the red sox a lot. Those series will determine if the jays have what it takes to make the playoffs or not.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Id consider trading both semien and ray. See how the games go before july 30th. Have the red sox a lot. Those series will determine if the jays have what it takes to make the playoffs or not.

It would be a bold move but if we're out of it and the prospect capital offered is equivalent to or better than a compensation pick, it would really set us up even better going forward. Plus, with no comp pick we can try to sign either guy back in the off season.

 

[Amadeus]

Id consider trading both semien and ray. See how the games go before july 30th. Have the red sox a lot. Those series will determine if the jays have what it takes to make the playoffs or not.

If two of our better players are moved out how can we legitimately contend for a playoff spot next year? I think we need to have active conversations to re-sign them.