Value of: Vince Dunn

Habs Halifax

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I cant see us trading Struble the exact words of Bergevin on struble were " He's a Greek God" also if struble was a couple of days younger he would have went in this year's draft he has a really late birthday. On top LHD is our weakest position. How about Dunn for 2 2nd and brook and you could possibly add allen since hale has 1 year left.

Highest I would go is Mete and a early 2nd. RD after Weber and Petry is actually weaker than the LD side. Trading Brook could be a massive mistake. Mete as well to some degree cause I don't think he has topped out yet.

I like Dunn but not going to drool over him. If the Blues need a trade partner to clear cap space, we can talk. If they want more than what we can give, I move on to other LD options like Leddy, Brodin, Yandle, and Brodie/Gustafson as UFA's.
 

wintersej

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obviously this doesn't tell the whole story, but:



and yes, top 4 DMen (which Dunn already is) do go for 1st round picks all the time.


Do top 4 d-men play 16 minutes a game? And it's not like STL is strong at all at LD. In fact, their *natural* LD group is very mediocre. Even after adding Scandella.
 

wintersej

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He's an elite skater, great puck-mover, and his goal-scoring numbers have been really good, especially when you factor in lower minutes. Now, he still has some work to do defensively because otherwise he'd be with Pietrangelo on a more regular basis, instead of just when we need offense. Since we have the luxury of sheltering, that's what we do. He can QB a the top PP unit, he has here at times. It's hard to find a good comp because on a worse team, he'd be getting bigger minutes, so would his offense sky-rocket or would he be more exposed defensively?

Thanks for the honest assessment. Would you put him in roughly the same class as Mete or Dermott? In my limited viewing he has seemed in that class to me with understanding the he has a few more goals on the PP than those two guys that don't get the PP2 time that Dunn gets.
 

Zajacs Bowl Cut

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Do top 4 d-men play 16 minutes a game? And it's not like STL is strong at all at LD. In fact, their *natural* LD group is very mediocre. Even after adding Scandella.

Do you ever think young players who do very well in limited minutes would excel when given more minutes or is that out of the realm of possibility? Dunn is 23 years old and his rates are quite good. So I think its very reasonable to expect he could be a longterm top 4 puck moving DMan, which would absolutely garner a 1st round pick in return.
 

topshelf15

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Dunn is feisty, but he's on the smaller end. He'll have some big hits here and there, but he needs to be paired with a solid defensive defenseman. If you need a physical defensive guy, Dunn shouldn't be your target. He's more of a feisty, puck-mover.

He's on 3rd pair because he isn't a shutdown caliber guy to put with Parayko on the 2nd pair and he isn't top-pair quality yet to put with Pietrangelo. If we used Pietrangelo as the shutdown guy and Parayko as a regular 2nd pair, then I think he'd be successful there.
Thanks for this Bleed,great insight ...
 

bleedblue1223

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Thanks for the honest assessment. Would you put him in roughly the same class as Mete or Dermott? In my limited viewing he has seemed in that class to me with understanding the he has a few more goals on the PP than those two guys that don't get the PP2 time that Dunn gets.
My gut says higher, but I don't watch those guys as much with them in the East. Production wise he's similar to someone like Girard, but then usage comes into play. No one with his usage has comparable production. Maybe Butcher, I don't watch him to know stylistically or potential though.
 

bleedblue1223

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Do top 4 d-men play 16 minutes a game? And it's not like STL is strong at all at LD. In fact, their *natural* LD group is very mediocre. Even after adding Scandella.
Bouwmeester/Scandella are on the shutdown pair with Parayko, the top pair has sort of been in flux since last season when Edmundson was inconsistent. Gunnar gets time there at times because he's always been steady with Petro and it's just a safe pairing. Faulk has had time there, Dunn has had time there, at other points we pair Parayko and Petro together. The basic sense in Dunn isn't a shutdown type with Parayko and isn't top-pair quality with Petro, so it's just a weird fit outside of a sheltered role. St. Louis posters are genuinely split if he'd do better in a bigger role or not either. His offensive and transition game are top 4, but he has some work to do defensively to get there on a contending team.

Ideally we can keep him, but it'll be tough to do if we are able to extend Petro, and we have Perunovich coming up, and they are basically in the same role.
 
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Zajacs Bowl Cut

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My gut says higher, but I don't watch those guys as much with them in the East. Production wise he's similar to someone like Girard, but then usage comes into play. No one with his usage has comparable production. Maybe Butcher, I don't watch him to know stylistically or potential though.

Butcher cannot skate to save his life so stylistically probably not the best comparison, but I do get what you're going for
 

Bluesnatic27

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I don't think any of us want to trade Dunn. I think the point some of us are trying to make, is that we may not have a choice. To get Pietrangelo signed, it is likely someone we like has to go to get a team to take on Allen's contract.
No, the Blues do have a choice, and the choice consists of finding other assets to use before jumping to one of the most valuable pieces the Blues have.

Dunn is currently the best LHD on the team, and without him, the left side looks well below average. Even if people pin their hopes on one of Mikkola or Perunovich to replace Dunn, assuming that will happen within the next two - three years is still more blind optimism than anything. So for a team that has aspirations to be cup contenders within the next four - five years, hampering the left side with questions marks surely makes that window much less open than it should be.

But even if I were to buy into the notion that an incentive piece needs to be attached to Allen, which I don't, jumping to Dunn as that incentive is a massive overpayment. Allen has ONE year on his contract. ONE! Meaning the risk any team who takes Allen's contract is practically nothing for the long term. So if there is hardly any risk, why should the Blues overcompensate massively for the other team to take the contract? Look at a team like Detroit. They have Jimmy Howard coming off the books and aren't in a great position to make a playoff run next year. Even worse, it looks like many of their top goaltending prospects are a few years away. So why not sell Allen to them? Ask for something small, because honestly the return doesn't matter, and if they ask for incentive, add small pieces like picks or bottom-6 forwards, i.e. something the Blues have an abundance of/no need of right now. That way, Allen is off the books and Detroit can see if Allen or the piece they got with him could be a solid contributor for the team now and beyond. If Detroit doesn't strike your fancy, well then find another team and switch Allen around with Steen or Bozak to match the need.

The reason I find the premise of Dunn being used as an incentive so dumb is that it conflicts with the very goal of the trade to begin with. The Blues should make a trade to clear space for Pietrangelo, that's it. The value acquired from the trade should lean towards the cap space gained because that's why the trade occurred in the first place. If the only asset acquired from the other team ends up being a 2030 7th rounder, so be it. If that's the price of Allen/Steen/Bozak right now, then I'm cool with that because now the Blues have more cap space to work with. Trading Allen/Steen/Bozak WITH Dunn has changed the focus to now acquiring value from the trade in terms of assets. In this scenario, the Blues are now looking for the best deal they can make with the bonus that it gets rid of Allen/Steen/Bozak's contract. The issue is that adding these contracts onto Dunn only weaken Dunn's value, so the Blues end of not getting a full return only to pin their hopes on whatever the future assets they acquire to shore up the hole that was left behind. And as stated, Dunn is the best LHD on the team with very little behind him that can offset his loss, internally, at this moment. If the Blues were rebuilding, then it's not the worst idea to accumulate the most assets they can and to streamline their cap situation. But for a Stanley Cup contending team, it sure seems like a terrible idea to me.

TL;DR, Pinning Dunn to these contracts to clear up cap space goes against the very purpose of the trade itself and only weakens the Blues as a result. To me, it's the equivalent of having a man try to get someone to take his old couch that he has no room for by throwing in the keys to his sports car as a bargaining chip.
 
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wintersej

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Do you ever think young players who do very well in limited minutes would excel when given more minutes or is that out of the realm of possibility? Dunn is 23 years old and his rates are quite good. So I think its very reasonable to expect he could be a longterm top 4 puck moving DMan, which would absolutely garner a 1st round pick in return.

Oh sure but many also fall on their face. Pricing him like its a sure thing he is top 4 is very different than pricing him like you think he is top 4. I come here with ignorance, but it sounds like even amongst Blues fans its very split.
 

bleedblue1223

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Butcher cannot skate to save his life so stylistically probably not the best comparison, but I do get what you're going for
Yeah, was just trying to find players with similar offensive production with similar minutes, I don't watch the East nearly as much as the West. I think Girard is a decent style comp, but I understand and would agree with people saying Dunn has to be tested for that to be a good comp.
 
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bleedblue1223

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Oh sure but many also fall on their face. Pricing him like its a sure thing he is top 4 is very different than pricing him like you think he is top 4. I come here with ignorance, but it sounds like even amongst Blues fans its very split.
It's sort of like when Shattenkirk was here. Talent wise is clearly top 4, but for people that value defense higher, they viewed him as clearly 3rd pair.
 
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PAZ

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No, the Blues do have a choice, and the choice consists of finding other assets to use before jumping to one of the most valuable pieces the Blues have.

Dunn is currently the best LHD on the team, and without him, the left side looks well below average. Even if people pin their hopes on one of Mikkola or Perunovich to replace Dunn, assuming that will happen within the next two - three years is still more blind optimism than anything. So for a team that has aspirations to be cup contenders within the next four - five years, hampering the left side with questions marks surely makes that window much less open than it should be.

But even if I were to buy into the notion that an incentive piece needs to be attached to Allen, which I don't, jumping to Dunn as that incentive is a massive overpayment. Allen has ONE year on his contract. ONE! Meaning the risk any team who takes Allen's contract is practically nothing for the long term. So if there is hardly any risk, why should the Blues overcompensate massively for the other team to take the contract? Look at a team like Detroit. They have Jimmy Howard coming off the books and aren't in a great position to make a playoff run next year. Even worse, it looks like many of their top goaltending prospects are a few years away. So why not sell Allen to them? Ask for something small, because honestly the return doesn't matter, and if they ask for incentive, add small pieces like picks or bottom-6 forwards, i.e. something the Blues have an abundance of/no need of right now. That way, Allen is off the books and Detroit can see if Allen or the piece they got with him could be a solid contributor for the team now and beyond. If Detroit doesn't strike your fancy, well then find another team and switch Allen around with Steen or Bozak to match the need.

The reason I find the premise of Dunn being used as an incentive so dumb is that it conflicts with the very goal of the trade to begin with. The Blues should make a trade to clear space for Pietrangelo, that's it. The value acquired from the trade should lean towards the cap space gained because that's why the trade occurred in the first place. If the only asset acquired from the other team ends up being a 2030 7th rounder, so be it. If that's the price of Allen/Steen/Bozak right now, then I'm cool with that because now the Blues have more cap space to work with. Trading Allen/Steen/Bozak WITH Dunn has changed the focus to now acquiring value from the trade in terms of assets. In this scenario, the Blues are now looking for the best deal they can make with the bonus that it gets rid of Allen/Steen/Bozak's contract. The issue is that adding these contracts onto Dunn only weaken Dunn's value, so the Blues end of not getting a full return only to pin their hopes on whatever the future assets they acquire to shore up the hole that was left behind. And as stated, Dunn is the best LHD on the team with very little behind him that can offset his loss, internally, at this moment. If the Blues were rebuilding, then it's not the worst idea to accumulate the most assets they can and to streamline their cap situation. But for a Stanley Cup contending team, it sure seems like a terrible idea to me.

TL;DR, Pinning Dunn to these contracts to clear up cap space goes against the very purpose of the trade itself and only weakens the Blues as a result. To me, it's the equivalent of having a man try to get someone to take his old couch that he has no room for by throwing in the keys to his sports car as a bargaining chip.

It's obvious other options would be explored first, but there is a real possibility that the Blues may have to trade Dunn in order to offload Bozak/Allen. It's also a possibility they don't need to add any incentive. This isn't a traditional year because nobody was expecting a flat cap, most actually banked on it raising significantly. So discussing the idea of Dunn makes sense if it means retaining Pie, it'll be dependent on what the market decides.

Tampa will have to unload players. Toronto may have to unload a player. Vegas may have to unload a player. The list can go on, especially when you consider teams looking to sign players like Holtby, Hall, Barrie, etc., they may also look to move a player too.

Another thing that hasn't really been talked about are the owner's financial situations. Every owner is going to lose money this year, many will be willing to pay out of pocket as a team is a toy to them, but there will be some that won't. As a result, there will be teams that will have an internal budget for the next year or two. So on paper it'seems easy to move Bozak and/or Allen, but the reality may be very different.
 

HuGort

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From a habs fan... what would you guys want in exchange for him?

2nd+Fleury+Byron ?
I am thinking offer sheeting Dunn. Pay a little more than he is worth but better chance of getting him. Keeps our 2nd pick and Fleury also.

Lock him up thru his prime years. At least 5 million, give up our first pick in 2021? For 6 years?
 

67Blues

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I am thinking offer sheeting Dunn. Pay a little more than he is worth but better chance of getting him. Keeps our 2nd pick and Fleury also.

Lock him up thru his prime years. At least 5 million, give up our first pick in 2021? For 6 years?
No way the Blues would match $5+m for Dunn even if they had the available cap space. He isn't worth that much.
 

Zajacs Bowl Cut

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I am thinking offer sheeting Dunn. Pay a little more than he is worth but better chance of getting him. Keeps our 2nd pick and Fleury also.

Lock him up thru his prime years. At least 5 million, give up our first pick in 2021? For 6 years?

keep in mind that offer sheet compensation are for the total dollar amount over a maximum of 5 years

so if you offer sheet him at 6 years, at $30 million, the compensation would really be based on $30 million over 5 years or $6 million AAV
 

CupCrazySTL38

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I am kind of shocked St. Louis fans are okay with these proposals. I'd much rather keep Dunn if I were them.

I would rather keep Dunn than trade him. I know he is due a raise but we have Allen, Bozak to trade and can always buyout Steen for cap space to sign Dunn and Petro. Dunn is currently making $722,500 new contract 3 years at AAV 3 per year and Petro 5 Years at AAV of 8.5-9.

Blues currently have $2,047,501 in Cap Space
Allen Makes $4,350,000 - Trade for a 2nd Round Pick
Bozak Makes $5,000,000 - Take a Prospect or late round pick

Steen Buyout
Yearly Salary $5,750,000
Saves 2.3 Million cap hit

Cap Saving of 13.64 million which should be more than enough to sign Dunn and Petro

Even we decide to trade Dunn. The Blues have a few Defensive Prospects in the pipeline Scott Perunovich, Niko Mikkola, Jake Walman, Mitch Reinke
 

TheImpatientPanther

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I would rather keep Dunn than trade him. I know he is due a raise but we have Allen, Bozak to trade and can always buyout Steen for cap space to sign Dunn and Petro. Dunn is currently making $722,500 new contract 3 years at AAV 3 per year and Petro 5 Years at AAV of 8.5-9.

Blues currently have $2,047,501 in Cap Space
Allen Makes $4,350,000 - Trade for a 2nd Round Pick
Bozak Makes $5,000,000 - Take a Prospect or late round pick

Steen Buyout
Yearly Salary $5,750,000
Saves 2.3 Million cap hit

Cap Saving of 13.64 million which should be more than enough to sign Dunn and Petro

Even we decide to trade Dunn. The Blues have a few Defensive Prospects in the pipeline Scott Perunovich, Niko Mikkola, Jake Walman, Mitch Reinke

Would AP sign for only 5 years though? Id expect that AAV of $8.5-9 milly you proposed to be accurate but on a 7-8 year deal. He'd be smart to lock up term and security vs chasing a shorter term deal when he might not command a 2-3 year deal at 35-36, because of age and decline.
 

Habs Halifax

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I'm sure the Blues and other teams who have cap issues with players to sign are looking to make moves on draft day (before free agency). Teams with cap space and willing to take on salary have to decide if they want to do this on draft day or wait for better offers cause GM's get desperate. Draft day should be interesting with this flat cap. Habs would be interested in Dunn, Leddy and Brodin (with extension) as our LD option. We have not had a decent back-up to Price in many years so if the Blues want to move Dunn and Allen to clear out space in one move... Habs are your team.

Pieces on the table... not all parts but a package of this is what we can offer
- Blues 2nd
- Maybe the Blackhawks 2nd but more likely we offer multiple 4th's or our 3rd.
- Mete
- Kulak
- Ikonen
- Olofsson
 

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