Vancouver led the league in points at Christmas, Can they continue this run into the New Year?

[CantHaveTkachev]

If you're talking about one player's shooting percentage, you're right. When 6-8 players on a team are experiencing the same surge in 46 games, and in the same 46 games, it's a very large sample size and far too large to be explained by chance. If you don't understand this, I'm not sure how to explain it any further.

your explanation of "if 6 players are having statistically outlier seasons, surely that can't be luck!" isn't backed up by any facts, because it hasn't been done before....ever

your theory (whatever it is, you still haven't explained how 6 players can have such high shooting percentages) would hold more water if they repeated it year after year...you know, over a large sample size

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

We have been hearing sample size all year and yes 46 games is a large size. You oilers fans have gone back to "cup or bust" after 20 games, so fu*k off with that BS. You have now entered a coach as a reason I mean it's getting really pathetic.
You now also mention the kraken as a comparable but here's the thing, look at the krakens roster and now look at the nucks. One is full of players that have elite talent with a core largely coming into its prime.

Have you once just considered that with EP, Quinn, Brock, Hronek coming into their prime and JT who has been popping off since he came here, everyone healthy and playing as a team just might be a big part of why the team is doing so well? Heck even Garland has shown since Arizona he's a guy that can be a 60 point player with pp time and has always been good 5on5. This core going back to TG was always a low volume shooting team but the last couple of seasons their 5on5 scoring has improved, which tracks with internal improvement and a system that plays to their strengths.

The last few things I'll say is the reason the team is not analytical darlings or at least a big reason is for one shot volume. In the eyes of analytics it plays a big part but the obvious and the one some seem to ignore is situational play. They score first, usually have a multiple goal lead where the strategy switches from balls to the wall attack to sitting back and forcing shots to the outside. Teams also down will almost always start throwing everything at the net, I don't understand why you guys refuse to admit these things heavily influence those stats.

The following stats are the ones that truly paint a picture of the nucks.

Scored 1st 30 of 46 games (60 1st period goals + 24 goal differential we lead early often by 2 plus goals)

27-0-1 when leading after 2.
Haven't lost 3 in a row, two, two game losing streaks.

Have only lost by 2 goals or more 3 times all year.
Best road record
55 goal diff
Not one minus player on the team, 4 of the top six in the league including Quinn and Hronek 1-2.

You're gonna sit there and sluff all that off to luck? Come on man, if the oilers had anything close to that your pov would be completely different.

I never once said they weren't a good team, I'm saying there's no way they'll continue to shoot at such a high percentage

 

[Three On Zero]

I think the salt content in this thread could rival the Dead Sea

 

[Czechboy]

I think the salt content in this thread could rival the Dead Sea

From what I gather... the 2 current triggers words for Oil/Nuck fights are PDO and Easy Schedule.lol

 

[WetcoastOrca]

From what I gather... the 2 current triggers words for Oil/Nuck fights are PDO and Easy Schedule.lol

Last year it was Joeys and Kuzmenko.
Lol. Doesn’t work this year though.

 

[Bank Shot]

Last year it was Joeys and Kuzmenko.
Lol. Doesn’t work this year though.

Dakota Joshua is just a Stamkos level sniper. Just like Kostin last year.

The facts are the facts.

People spent hundreds of hours trying to convince Oilers fans last year that Kostin wasn't going to repeat his performance but a seemingly large percentage of the general population just goes through life forming their opinions on what they want to happen, rather than what is likely to happen based on evidence.

 

[Three On Zero]

Dakota Joshua is just a Stamkos level sniper. Just like Kostin last year.

The facts are the facts.

People spent hundreds of hours trying to convince Oilers fans last year that Kostin wasn't going to repeat his performance but a seemingly large percentage of the general population just goes through life forming their opinions on what they want to happen, rather than what is likely to happen based on evidence.

You’re welcome to try and pry him when Draisaitl walks

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Dakota Joshua is just a Stamkos level sniper. Just like Kostin last year.

The facts are the facts.

People spent hundreds of hours trying to convince Oilers fans last year that Kostin wasn't going to repeat his performance but a seemingly large percentage of the general population just goes through life forming their opinions on what they want to happen, rather than what is likely to happen based on evidence.

Fortunately though you replaced him with Connor Brown at a bargain price!

 

[Lemmiwinks]

Thread is unreadable but I’m glad some people are having fun..

Will the PDO ever regress? Probably, but I think the Canucks are still a decent team in that eventuality

 

[HighAndTight]

Okay, but you were the one proposing an explanation -- luck. If you're abandoning that explanation and we agree this largely can't be explained by chance or luck, then we're left with two factors -- the quality of the opportunities and the ability of the shooter to score on a given shot relative to other players. The second is a bit variable as players definitely go through hot and cold spells which themselves are influenced by a myriad of known and unknown factors. But no team that has done what the Canucks are doing at this point in a season, as measured by PDO, later in the same season began performing in a way that suggested their success was due to luck. The all kept playing extremely well. All of them went on long playoff runs.

They also more often then not. kept their numbers across 3 years with major drops at both ends.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Dakota Joshua is just a Stamkos level sniper. Just like Kostin last year.

The facts are the facts.

People spent hundreds of hours trying to convince Oilers fans last year that Kostin wasn't going to repeat his performance but a seemingly large percentage of the general population just goes through life forming their opinions on what they want to happen, rather than what is likely to happen based on evidence.

The example of Kostin last year has nothing to do with what we're talking about. We aren't talking about one player having what appears to be an outlier year. We're talking about 6-8 players having outlier years on the same team at the same time. Do you understand how those two situations are different and why they are bound to have different causes?

 

[Bank Shot]

The example of Kostin last year has nothing to do with what we're talking about. We aren't talking about one player having what appears to be an outlier year. We're talking about 6-8 players having outlier years on the same team at the same time. Do you understand how those two situations are different and why they are bound to have different causes?

I think you don't understand it. It's the same thing, just getting a lot of good bounces for a lot of different guys.

Tocchet doesn't have a super duper system that turns plugs into 20% shooters, because there are no 20% shooters in the NHL and there never have been.....

 

[Three On Zero]

To post something actually relevant to the topic instead of just continuing the salt mining

Nearly a month later and they are still maintaining. Doubtful they ride off to another President's Trophy season, but still maintaining

 

[Bank Shot]

But no team that has done what the Canucks are doing at this point in a season, as measured by PDO, later in the same season began performing in a way that suggested their success was due to luck. The all kept playing extremely well. All of them went on long playoff runs.

Well that's clearly not true because just last year the Bruins had an epic season in PDO and then lost in the first round.

Maybe provide some concrete examples instead of making things up that are clearly incorrect.

 

[eviohh26]

How is this thread still going. Why are Oiler fans so obsessed with some silly advance stats.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Well that's clearly not true because just last year the Bruins had an epic season in PDO and then lost in the first round.

Bruins' PDO last year falls well short of the Canucks this year, in historical terms.

Maybe provide some concrete examples instead of making things up that are clearly incorrect.

Here are the top 5 PDO teams since 1979-80:

1. 1984-85 Edmonton Oilers (106.5)2. 1983-84 Edmonton Oilers (106.3)3. 1983-84 New York Islanders (105.3)4. 1995-96 Pittsburgh Penguins (105.2)5. 2023-24 Vancouver Canucks (105.2)

Every team above this year's Canucks either won the Cup, lost in the finals or lost in the conference finals. PDO is primarily a measure of future success.

I think you don't understand it. It's the same thing, just getting a lot of good bounces for a lot of different guys.

Tocchet doesn't have a super duper system that turns plugs into 20% shooters, because there are no 20% shooters in the NHL and there never have been.....

Just to establish a baseline for the conversation here: do you understand --on a basic, 7th grade math level -- why one player having a very high shooting percentage is less likely to be influenced by chance than several players on the same team having very high shooting percentages?

 

[Umingmak]

The salt coming from Oilers fans here. Yikes. Still upset about that 8-1 steamrolling?

The Canucks are a damn good team, and if I had to pick between the Canucks and Oilers, I'm taking the Canucks. Unlike the Oilers, they actually have depth and elite goaltending.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Like, I'm not saying the team isn't lucky to some degree. But it's mathematically impossible for that to be the primary explanation for nearly every player shooting at a percentage that individually would be considered lucky. The only other teams in history to do this were simply very good teams with high levels of individual skill.

 

[PG Canuck]

How is this thread still going. Why are Oiler fans so obsessed with some silly advance stats.

Because they’re 13pts back even after winning 13 in a row. That’s tough to stomach.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

How is this thread still going. Why are Oiler fans so obsessed with some silly advance stats.

Because they lost 3 games by an 18-6 total score to a team that was supposed to be a bubble team. I’m sure it still stings. Advanced stats lets them ignore the fact that they got outscored 3 times over by a very good team.

 

[DimitriL07]

Perfect Kuz set up and a snipe from Hughesy so far tonight for the 2 goals. Don’t worry tho it was all luck because it happened within 6 shots.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Canucks are having the ultimate dream season. Everything that could go right for them has been going right this year for them. Is it sustainable for 82 games? We will see.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Canucks are having the ultimate dream season. Everything that could go right for them has been going right this year for them. Is it sustainable for 82 games? We will see.

Not quite everything. They’re 40 goal scorer from last year is struggling and their 3rd best D has missed a lot of the season.
But they’ve been mostly healthy and have made some great additions especially on D.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Not quite everything. They’re 40 goal scorer from last year is struggling and their 3rd best D has missed a lot of the season.
But they’ve been mostly healthy and have made some great additions especially on D.

You mean the guy who shot 27% last year, regressed?

Hmm.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

You mean the guy who shot 27% last year, regressed?

Hmm.

Yeah some regression was expected but not this bad. Good to see him with two assists tonight. Tocchet has a way of whipping players into two way players.