Vancouver led the league in points at Christmas, Can they continue this run into the New Year?

[geebster]

With regard to PDO... just in case people missed it in Stats 100, no individual measured value in a sample must tend toward the mean expected value over time. If you roll a snake eyes that doesnt change the probability of your next roll. All it is is that a large enough sample tends towards a given value in a unimodal distribution (which PDO is). The AVERAGE of all PDOs will tend towards 1.00 but that doesnt mean any given team must be pushed towards it by season end. Its far enough into the season they may not regress much and there is no requirement for them to do so.

Stats are not deterministic in that way unto themselves. You can make probabilistic arguments of how likely an outlier is to remain one, but those dont necessitate any significant movement towards the middle.

The average person has 1 testicle and 1 ovary and half a uterus. If you dont know how stats work you can conclude insane things.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Okay, but you were the one proposing an explanation -- luck. If you're abandoning that explanation and we agree this largely can't be explained by chance or luck, then we're left with two factors -- the quality of the opportunities and the ability of the shooter to score on a given shot relative to other players. The second is a bit variable as players definitely go through hot and cold spells which themselves are influenced by a myriad of known and unknown factors. But no team that has done what the Canucks are doing at this point in a season, as measured by PDO, later in the same season began performing in a way that suggested their success was due to luck. The all kept playing extremely well. All of them went on long playoff runs.

I think the shooting percentage is largely due to "luck"
Rick Tochett coached the Coyotes for four seasons and his players were never near the top of league in shooting...highest he ever had was Dvorak at 17.9% in the short 2020-21 season
so I highly doubt he woke up one day figured out the secret sauce to raise shooting percentage, nor do I think his coaching has changed from his time in Phoenix

I mean, look at Kuzmenko...sure, maybe his role changed but how does one go from a 27% shooting percentage to 13%? did he just forgot how to score? no, it's just not every 4th shot is going in now

 

[krutovsdonut]

Good grief? Lmfao.

"whataboutism is a rhetorical technique that is largely discredited in contemporary discussion because it contributes nothing whatever to the question of whether the original point being challenged is accurate or not and rather seeks to deligitimize all discussion of a particular subject matter, usually for partisan reasons."

So you're going on about "contemporary discussions" WRT to other logical fallacies, but when you employ your own fallacy, you mention some set of rules and talk about how we are in the real world subject to tribal hatred lmfao. A logical fallacy is a logical fallacy.

You can call people whatever you want, homers, or worse. Just don't pretend it adds anything to the conversation. If you're okay with that, stop holding other people to standards you can't hold yourself to. You're a Canucks fan, anyone can very easily just dismiss your arguments for the tribal love. Not that you've made any argument I've seen.

a tautology is a tautology.

i didn't employ a logical fallacy. i explained why. you haven't responded to that explanation. you're just bloviating now.

in the end you're even saltier than the other oilers fans in here with your ironic demands that people not point out that the oilers fans in here are salty.

 

[canuckster19]

I think the shooting percentage is largely due to "luck"
Rick Tochett coached the Coyotes for four seasons and his players were never near the top of league in shooting...highest he ever had was Dvorak at 17.9% in the short 2020-21 season
so I highly doubt he woke up one day figured out the secret sauce to raise shooting percentage, nor do I think his coaching has changed from his time in Phoenix

I mean, look at Kuzmenko...sure, maybe his role changed but how does one go from a 27% shooting percentage to 13%? did he just forgot how to score? no, it's just not every 4th shot is going in now

So now you can suddenly coach goal scoring? Jesus, and the most hilarious thing of all are Oilers fans having conniption fits any time a Canuck fan posts in an Oilers thread, plus the amount of projection going on regarding Canuck fans supposedly taking a cup win in advance, just sad really all around.

 

[coolboarder]

It likely hasn't been mentioned yet, so I'll say it.

The Canucks are due for a HEAVY regression. That PDO is too damn high. It's blinding. I don't think it's sustainable, guise.

How so do you say that they'll regress? Offense has been fire and we have the top 5 goalie and D has been good. PDO do not measure everything. It doesn't take account for offense time zone that has been higher. The Canucks can hold their opponent with lower shot for longer period of time. When they have been desperate, they take many perimeter shots which is a low percent and not many quality shots against and it is easier for the goalie to stop them. It has been consistent theme all year long. All lines could hold the puck in with Hughes and Canucks' opponents has been on heel. The bottom line is that their opponent has not been able to adjust to Canucks pressure. The only time the Canucks were in trouble is when they don't have any leg to skate back in November. I do not look at PDO but just watch the game, you will see why it is sustainable, even into the playoffs.

 

[coolboarder]

I think the shooting percentage is largely due to "luck"
Rick Tochett coached the Coyotes for four seasons and his players were never near the top of league in shooting...highest he ever had was Dvorak at 17.9% in the short 2020-21 season
so I highly doubt he woke up one day figured out the secret sauce to raise shooting percentage, nor do I think his coaching has changed from his time in Phoenix

I mean, look at Kuzmenko...sure, maybe his role changed but how does one go from a 27% shooting percentage to 13%? did he just forgot how to score? no, it's just not every 4th shot is going in now

Biggest difference between Rick Tocchet coaching Coyotes and the Canucks is day and night because of assistant coaches. He did not have Foote, Gonchar, Sedin twins, and even Yeo as his coaching team in Arizona. They bring more to the Canucks game than the Coyote coached team with different assistant coach personnel. They helped them a lot more and Rick just blend in with their ideas into a stronger team performance concept and it is showing. All 4 lines is showing some Sedinery influenced style of gameplay during 5 on 5 play and it is is unnoticed by the untrained eyes.

When I decide to watch other non-Canucks games, their style is not the same when compared to the Canucks. That is the reason why other Eastern media noticed a lot more and raves about their play during their road trip. I am still stunned even a long time fan of the Canucks hockey. It is virtually the same core except for Defense overhaul over the off-season moves. Even Myers played better under them is the same guy I wanted him traded at the start of the season. That is the reason why I do not even care about PDO argument.

 

[bandwagonesque]

I think the shooting percentage is largely due to "luck"

If it's luck, how do you explain it happening to nearly every forward on a single team over a very large sample size?

Rick Tochett coached the Coyotes for four seasons and his players were never near the top of league in shooting...highest he ever had was Dvorak at 17.9% in the short 2020-21 season
so I highly doubt he woke up one day figured out the secret sauce to raise shooting percentage, nor do I think his coaching has changed from his time in Phoenix

No one attributed this to Rick Tocchet.

I mean, look at Kuzmenko...sure, maybe his role changed but how does one go from a 27% shooting percentage to 13%? did he just forgot how to score? no, it's just not every 4th shot is going in now

This has nothing to do with the argument you're making. You're not attributing one player's variance in shooting percentage from one season to another to luck. You're suggesting luck explains nearly every forward on one team experiencing an increase in shooting percentage at exactly the same time. Do you understand the difference between these claims?

 

[Duodenum]

I think everyone knows the shooting percentage is going to come down, but nobody knows when. My hope is for next season after pdo-ing our way to the cup this year.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

If it's luck, how do you explain it happening to nearly every forward on a single team over a very large sample size?

No one attributed this to Rick Tocchet.

This has nothing to do with the argument you're making. You're not attributing one player's variance in shooting percentage from one season to another to luck. You're suggesting luck explains nearly every forward on one team experiencing an increase in shooting percentage at exactly the same time. Do you understand the difference between these claims?

Remember when the Calgary flames a couple years ago finished 1st in the west largely in part to career years from many players, and most shooting way higher than normal?

What happened the year after that? They suddenly were shooting at these inflated rates.

Even if these players stop shooting at these inflated rates, as long as Demko stays consistent, Vancouver should be a good to very good team.

 

[Rowlet]

Remember when the Calgary flames a couple years ago finished 1st in the west largely in part to career years from many players, and most shooting way higher than normal?

What happened the year after that? They suddenly were shooting at these inflated rates.

Even if these players stop shooting at these inflated rates, as long as Demko stays consistent, Vancouver should be a good to very good team.

If they win the cup this year, I don't care if they miss the playoffs for the next 5

 

[syz]

Remember when the Calgary flames a couple years ago finished 1st in the west largely in part to career years from many players, and most shooting way higher than normal?

What happened the year after that? They suddenly were shooting at these inflated rates.

Even if these players stop shooting at these inflated rates, as long as Demko stays consistent, Vancouver should be a good to very good team.

Markstrom was also basically walking on water all season and then he got shelled in the playoffs and hasn't recovered since.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

If it's luck, how do you explain it happening to nearly every forward on a single team over a very large sample size?

Lol 46 games is hardly a “very large sample size”..
And it may last the season, who knows

The Kraken last year rode the highest ES shooting % in the league to the 2nd round

This year, it’s not so high and they’re in a dog fight for a Wild Card spot.
I guess all their players and coaches decided to stop taking such high-quality shots

 

[bandwagonesque]

Lol 46 games is hardly a “very large sample size”..

If you're talking about one player's shooting percentage, you're right. When 6-8 players on a team are experiencing the same surge in 46 games, and in the same 46 games, it's a very large sample size and far too large to be explained by chance. If you don't understand this, I'm not sure how to explain it any further.

The Kraken last year rode the highest ES shooting % in the league to the 2nd round

I think you're well aware this isn't a meaningful comparison. The Kraken had a slightly higher shooting percentage than a large grouping of other teams, a good but unremarkable PDO that trailed several other teams, trailed this year's Canucks significantly in virtually every statistical category, and over an entire season had a positive goal differential about half of what the Canucks have in less than 50 games.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

If they win the cup this year, I don't care if they miss the playoffs for the next 5

Good luck with that.

 

[Dempsey]

The Canucks are really good this year, they don't look like they're going to slow down. If they're smart they'll add at the deadline (I know Allvin will anyway) and go for it because there's no certainty that they'll be better next year than they are right now. And then every year it'll be more of a cap crunch and they'll start having calculated weaknesses like all top teams do. They're good though and people need to stop assuming they'll slow down this season because those people have been wrong for four+ months now.

 

[Rowlet]

Good luck with that.

Thanks brother

 

[syz]

Canucks 23-24 5 on 5
CF% 20th
FF% 20th
SF% 23rd
xGF% 17th
SCF% 16th
HDCF% 19th
HDGF% 1st (66%)

Kraken 22-23 5 on 5
CF% 5th
FF% 6th
SF% 5th
xGF% 11th
SCF% 14th
HDCF% 20th
HDGF% 16th (50%)

Yea I dunno. Doesn't look like the Kraken trailed "significantly in virtually every statistical category." They were a decent 5 on 5 team with high volume shooting that scored more goals than they should have with bottom 3rd goaltending. The Canucks are getting more scoring from less chances while also having top 5 goaltending. If you put 23-24 Demko on the Kraken last year that team probably would have been pretty scary.

I also want to say that the Kraken's stats regressed fairly noticeably down the stretch last season but I could be misremembering.

 

[Szechwan]

With regard to PDO... just in case people missed it in Stats 100, no individual measured value in a sample must tend toward the mean expected value over time. If you roll a snake eyes that doesnt change the probability of your next roll. All it is is that a large enough sample tends towards a given value in a unimodal distribution (which PDO is). The AVERAGE of all PDOs will tend towards 1.00 but that doesnt mean any given team must be pushed towards it by season end. Its far enough into the season they may not regress much and there is no requirement for them to do so.

Stats are not deterministic in that way unto themselves. You can make probabilistic arguments of how likely an outlier is to remain one, but those dont necessitate any significant movement towards the middle.

The average person has 1 testicle and 1 ovary and half a uterus. If you dont know how stats work you can conclude insane things.

THIS SHOULD BE STICKIED AT THE TOP OF EVERY PAGE OF THIS THREAD

It's funny when someone with an actual understanding of statistics tries to clarify how they work for others, and is completely ignored while posters continue bickering in the same back-and-forth they've been on since the 1st week of the season.

 

[snag]

THIS SHOULD BE STICKIED AT THE TOP OF EVERY PAGE OF THIS THREAD

It's funny when someone with an actual understanding of statistics tries to clarify how they work for others, and is completely ignored while posters continue bickering in the same back-and-forth they've been on since the 1st week of the season.

Just as a reminder to everyone they should probably have at least 1 testicle?

 

[Fishy McScales]

With regard to PDO... just in case people missed it in Stats 100, no individual measured value in a sample must tend toward the mean expected value over time. If you roll a snake eyes that doesnt change the probability of your next roll. All it is is that a large enough sample tends towards a given value in a unimodal distribution (which PDO is). The AVERAGE of all PDOs will tend towards 1.00 but that doesnt mean any given team must be pushed towards it by season end. Its far enough into the season they may not regress much and there is no requirement for them to do so.

Stats are not deterministic in that way unto themselves. You can make probabilistic arguments of how likely an outlier is to remain one, but those dont necessitate any significant movement towards the middle.

The average person has 1 testicle and 1 ovary and half a uterus. If you dont know how stats work you can conclude insane things.

But if you roll ten times, the odds they'll all be snake eyes are minimal. That's how probability works. If there is an extreme outlier over a small sample size, chances are pretty good there will be a correction over time.

The league-wide average PDO will not "tend towards" 1.00; it is exactly 1.00 at all times. This is why the Canucks would have to have equally as low a PDO for the final 41 games as it was high for the first 41 games in order to reach the average. That's why no one is saying it will regress TO 1.00 but in all likelihood toward it. It is not a controversial prediction to make as the sample size grows.

 

[Coffee]

Remember when the Calgary flames a couple years ago finished 1st in the west largely in part to career years from many players, and most shooting way higher than normal?

What happened the year after that? They suddenly were shooting at these inflated rates.

Even if these players stop shooting at these inflated rates, as long as Demko stays consistent, Vancouver should be a good to very good team.

One problem, the Canucks arent the Flames, and have a much more talented group that has been underperforming years past

But if you roll ten times, the odds they'll all be snake eyes are minimal. That's how probability works. If there is an extreme outlier over a small sample size, chances are pretty good there will be a correction over time.

The league-wide average PDO will not "tend towards" 1.00; it is exactly 1.00 at all times. This is why the Canucks would have to have equally as low a PDO for the final 41 games as it was high for the first 41 games in order to reach the average. That's why no one is saying it will regress TO 1.00 but in all likelihood toward it. It is not a controversial prediction to make as the sample size grows.

We will see. Right now everyone is talking out of their asses, including Canucks fans.

One thing that isn't talking out of their ass is the NHL standings, and that's the bottom line.

 

[Fishy McScales]

One problem, the Canucks arent the Flames, and have a much more talented group that has been underperforming years past


We will see. Right now everyone is talking out of their asses, including Canucks fans.

One thing that isn't talking out of their ass is the NHL standings, and that's the bottom line.

Indeed, but I think a lot of what is being said in this thread about PDO is getting misconstrued and/or reduced to "salt".

Of course there is some salt involved, I'll happily admit it myself. It bugs me the Nucks are doing well haha. But ironically, as you say, I think many Canucks fans would have a diametrically opposed opinion if it were the Oilers or Flames riding this PDO.

 

[Coffee]

Indeed, but I think a lot of what is being said in this thread about PDO is getting misconstrued and/or reduced to "salt".

Of course there is some salt involved, I'll happily admit it myself. It bugs me the Nucks are doing well haha. But ironically, as you say, I think many Canucks fans would have a diametrically opposed opinion if it were the Oilers or Flames riding this PDO.

One thing me must not overlook , is , Western Canada is no joke, and these teams (Oilers and Canucks) are stronger than majority of the league.

If one team was shitty, there would be no serious rivalry, but now everyone in the country knows , if these teams meet in the playoffs, it’s absolutely prime time TV.

We are living in fun times, cheers my friend.

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

Lol 46 games is hardly a “very large sample size”..
And it may last the season, who knows

The Kraken last year rode the highest ES shooting % in the league to the 2nd round

This year, it’s not so high and they’re in a dog fight for a Wild Card spot.
I guess all their players and coaches decided to stop taking such high-quality shots

We have been hearing sample size all year and yes 46 games is a large size. You oilers fans have gone back to "cup or bust" after 20 games, so fu*k off with that BS. You have now entered a coach as a reason I mean it's getting really pathetic.
You now also mention the kraken as a comparable but here's the thing, look at the krakens roster and now look at the nucks. One is full of players that have elite talent with a core largely coming into its prime.

Have you once just considered that with EP, Quinn, Brock, Hronek coming into their prime and JT who has been popping off since he came here, everyone healthy and playing as a team just might be a big part of why the team is doing so well? Heck even Garland has shown since Arizona he's a guy that can be a 60 point player with pp time and has always been good 5on5. This core going back to TG was always a low volume shooting team but the last couple of seasons their 5on5 scoring has improved, which tracks with internal improvement and a system that plays to their strengths.

The last few things I'll say is the reason the team is not analytical darlings or at least a big reason is for one shot volume. In the eyes of analytics it plays a big part but the obvious and the one some seem to ignore is situational play. They score first, usually have a multiple goal lead where the strategy switches from balls to the wall attack to sitting back and forcing shots to the outside. Teams also down will almost always start throwing everything at the net, I don't understand why you guys refuse to admit these things heavily influence those stats.

The following stats are the ones that truly paint a picture of the nucks.

Scored 1st 30 of 46 games (60 1st period goals + 24 goal differential we lead early often by 2 plus goals)

27-0-1 when leading after 2.
Haven't lost 3 in a row, two, two game losing streaks.

Have only lost by 2 goals or more 3 times all year.
Best road record
55 goal diff
Not one minus player on the team, 4 of the top six in the league including Quinn and Hronek 1-2.

You're gonna sit there and sluff all that off to luck? Come on man, if the oilers had anything close to that your pov would be completely different.

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

Kill me.

Indeed, but I think a lot of what is being said in this thread about PDO is getting misconstrued and/or reduced to "salt".

Of course there is some salt involved, I'll happily admit it myself. It bugs me the Nucks are doing well haha. But ironically, as you say, I think many Canucks fans would have a diametrically opposed opinion if it were the Oilers or Flames riding this PDO.

Honestly I would make wise ass remarks here and there because that's the fun part of sports but man there are a handful of mostly oilers and leaf fans who are so weirdly obsessed that they create false narratives and bombard this thread with a lot of bull-shit and goal post moving.

I jest the 13 game streak and point out things that I see or pick apart the holes I see but I also openly acknowledge how much better they look and pray you guys finish 2nd or 3rd just in case we win the division only to be rewarded with a series against the only player #97 that gives me a literal pit in my stomach everytime we play you guys.

One thing me must not overlook , is , Western Canada is no joke, and these teams (Oilers and Canucks) are stronger than majority of the league.

If one team was shitty, there would be no serious rivalry, but now everyone in the country knows , if these teams meet in the playoffs, it’s absolutely prime time TV.

We are living in fun times, cheers my friend.

The top 3 teams Vegas included in the Pacific is going to be a bloodbath and I pray we finish 1st and the oilers and Vegas can slaughter each other in round 1 while we get the more middling teams. All three teams are cup contenders based on different criteria but contenders none the less. I will also say along with the Avs and stars are extremely fun teams to watch. All have tons of talent and play fast. I find the east aside from NJ and the devils a little boring to watch.
All I know is the playoffs in the west are going to be must watch.