Vancouver led the league in points at Christmas, Can they continue this run into the New Year?

[Zanon]

Perfect Kuz set up and a snipe from Hughesy so far tonight for the 2 goals. Don’t worry tho it was all luck because it happened within 6 shots.

PDO nerds seething

 

[Hank Plank]

Vancouver Canucks are the best team in the NHL.

 

[JAK]

People need to stop referring to PDO as an advanced stat.

PDO is just save% + shot%, and some guy decided to add it up and called it an advanced stat.

It's a short hand for two stats, but it has no meaning.

Scotty Bowman used to say that a true contender's PP rank + PK rank needs to be under 10 to be considered a contender.

At least that has more merit than PDO.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

People need to stop referring to PDO as an advanced stat.

PDO is just save% + shot%, and some guy decided to add it up and called it an advanced stat.

It's a short hand for two stats, but it has no meaning.

Scotty Bowman used to say that a true contender's PP rank + PK rank needs to be under 10 to be considered a contender.

At least that has more merit than PDO.

I think tbh it’s mostly only one rival fan base that brings up the PDO.
Most people know it’s a pretty dumb stat with no predictive value.

 

[Hank Plank]

People need to stop referring to PDO as an advanced stat.

Every stat besides the score is advanced.

 

[Sykur]

 

[Bank Shot]

Bruins' PDO last year falls well short of the Canucks this year, in historical terms.

Here are the top 5 PDO teams since 1979-80:

1. 1984-85 Edmonton Oilers (106.5)2. 1983-84 Edmonton Oilers (106.3)3. 1983-84 New York Islanders (105.3)4. 1995-96 Pittsburgh Penguins (105.2)5. 2023-24 Vancouver Canucks (105.2)

Every team above this year's Canucks either won the Cup, lost in the finals or lost in the conference finals. PDO is primarily a measure of future success.


Just to establish a baseline for the conversation here: do you understand --on a basic, 7th grade math level -- why one player having a very high shooting percentage is less likely to be influenced by chance than several players on the same team having very high shooting percentages?

You really think teams from the 80s are comparable to teams in 23/24?

Good luck with that.

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

Dakota Joshua is just a Stamkos level sniper. Just like Kostin last year.

The facts are the facts.

People spent hundreds of hours trying to convince Oilers fans last year that Kostin wasn't going to repeat his performance but a seemingly large percentage of the general population just goes through life forming their opinions on what they want to happen, rather than what is likely to happen based on evidence.

There's the crux of the whole thing right there. You guys keep banging the shooting % drum and yes it's high but you guys keep lumping the whole group in one pot .

Here's the thing and there was a great article on tsn that broke it down and ironically used the oilers top 2 players as an example.

EP, JT, Brock, are are 3 best goal scorers all have higher than normal sh% but when you have a 5 man unit with four All-stars who are a combo of elite shooters and playmakers, all healthy and in their prime it's very normal to see them all scoring more. Like Mcdrai they have over their careers been above average at converting chances. Even if their % drop they won't drop much because of that and because they are elite if they stop going in on the first chance they very likely will maintain possession of a rebound or a keep in etc and create extra opportunities. So while their sh% might drop it's logical to assume they will simply create more chances.
As for guys like Dakota, Lafferty, etc their regression might be more pronounced but in the grand scheme that's not gonna cause some huge impact on wins and it's likely guys struggling like Mikheyev-, Suter, and Kuzmenko start scoring more. Having depth is nice.

I suggest oilers fans read the article and since it involves your two stars maybe it finally shut you guys up.

 

[EpochLink]

There on par, 4 point lead for now.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Dakota Joshua is just a Stamkos level sniper. Just like Kostin last year.

The facts are the facts.

People spent hundreds of hours trying to convince Oilers fans last year that Kostin wasn't going to repeat his performance but a seemingly large percentage of the general population just goes through life forming their opinions on what they want to happen, rather than what is likely to happen based on evidence.

Seems to me quality of depth issue.

It went from “it’s all because of Demko masking their problems” to “PDO!” to “everyone’s got an inflated shooting percentage, that’s why!” arguments.

Oilers fans are a persistent bunch.

 

[Nucker101]

Canucks rank 11th in the league at xgf% at 5v5 when the score is within 1 goal according to NST as of this post (they've also spent more time being up by 1 than being down by 1 so if anything score effects hurt them a bit here). That's ahead of teams like Boston, Toronto, NYR, etc and close behind Vegas and Colorado.

Now factor in their scoring talent and top tier goalie on top of the fact that they've spent more time up by 1 instead of down by 1 and I'd say it's reasonable to expect them outperform that 11th ranked xgf% by a bit, so in my opinion this a top 10 team that's overperforming as a top 3 team.

So this is really a top 10 team instead of a top 3 team? Oh the horror!

Edit: and for you salty Oilers fans, you guys actually rank #1 in xgf% when the score is within 1 so that's pretty promising for you. But again the Canucks have spent 200 more minutes leading by 1 compared to the Oilers so that skews things a bit.

 

[Bank Shot]

Seems to me quality of depth issue.

It went from “it’s all because of Demko masking their problems” to “PDO!” to “everyone’s got an inflated shooting percentage, that’s why!” arguments.

Oilers fans are a persistent bunch.

Its always been inflated shooting percentages for me. You can feel free to assign arguments randomly to an entire fanbase and then be outraged about it if it helps your persecution complex.

There's the crux of the whole thing right there. You guys keep banging the shooting % drum and yes it's high but you guys keep lumping the whole group in one pot .

Here's the thing and there was a great article on tsn that broke it down and ironically used the oilers top 2 players as an example.

EP, JT, Brock, are are 3 best goal scorers all have higher than normal sh% but when you have a 5 man unit with four All-stars who are a combo of elite shooters and playmakers, all healthy and in their prime it's very normal to see them all scoring more. Like Mcdrai they have over their careers been above average at converting chances. Even if their % drop they won't drop much because of that and because they are elite if they stop going in on the first chance they very likely will maintain possession of a rebound or a keep in etc and create extra opportunities. So while their sh% might drop it's logical to assume they will simply create more chances.
As for guys like Dakota, Lafferty, etc their regression might be more pronounced but in the grand scheme that's not gonna cause some huge impact on wins and it's likely guys struggling like Mikheyev-, Suter, and Kuzmenko start scoring more. Having depth is nice.

I suggest oilers fans read the article and since it involves your two stars maybe it finally shut you guys up.

Nobody ever shoots over 20% for any length of time. So while your "reasons" probably sound good to tell yourself. It won't persist.

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

HA! You are comparing the Canucks to a dynasty team with some of the greatest players ever to play the game? Do you realise that you just proved my point about not understanding numbers and statistics? My god, you look so foolish right now.

"go find me a team that has done what they are doing now for 2-3 seasons in a row"

And I did. I'm starting to think you are a young child. Your reading comprehension is of a 5 year old. Talk about looking foolish. yOu dOn'T uNdeRsTanD nUmBers...

Watch a game ffs.

 

[Umingmak]

Its always been inflated shooting percentages for me. You can feel free to assign arguments randomly to an entire fanbase and then be outraged about it if it helps your persecution complex.


Nobody ever shoots over 20% for any length of time. So while your "reasons" probably sound good to tell yourself. It won't persist.

We’re past the halfway point in the season. It’s persisting.

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

What do you call barely beating the Sabres who are one of the worst teams in the league? Can you be a bigger hypocrite?

8-1, 4-3, 6-2 ... keep crying about it.

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

So you think these canucks are comparable to those Oilers teams?

Thats not helping your argument

I don't have puppets on hand to explain to you the complexity of a conversation with more than 5 sentences, but he asked to find a team that's ever had these numbers. You're saying a team cannot have these numbers and still be a good team, yet, there are the Oilers of the past. it's not a hard concept to grasp.

 

[Wayward Son]

The vast majority of the rage in this 1300 post thread appears to be coming from one certain fan base. Get a hold of yourselves, fellas.

 

[strattonius]

Its always been inflated shooting percentages for me. You can feel free to assign arguments randomly to an entire fanbase and then be outraged about it if it helps your persecution complex.


Nobody ever shoots over 20% for any length of time. So while your "reasons" probably sound good to tell yourself. It won't persist.

Shot% will regress but it doesn't preclude the Canucks to start losing when it does.

Are you under the impression that the Canucks are a mirage at the top of the standings and that they aren't a good team because of an unsustainable shooting%?
Or are you just in a pointless semantics debate about historical shooting % sustainabilities?

Either way you're sort of past your expiration date in the thread - it's akin to jackjohnson in the Oilers threads.

 

[HairyKneel]

Its always been inflated shooting percentages for me. You can feel free to assign arguments randomly to an entire fanbase and then be outraged about it if it helps your persecution complex.


Nobody ever shoots over 20% for any length of time. So while your "reasons" probably sound good to tell yourself. It won't persist.

The vast majority of the rage in this 1300 post thread appears coming from one certain fan base. Get a hold of yourselves, fellas.

Give them a break. They live in Edmonton.

 

[DFAC]

I don't know if they can but I sure hope so!

 

[inthewings]

Just finished skimming the thread. I'm not a fan of either team, but from what I can tell a summary of the 55 pages basically boils down to: the Canucks are very good and Oilers fans are very, very mad about it?

 

[Breakers]

You can go on and on about underlying numbers and stats for comparing players

But lets be honest when looking at teams.
- last years cup winner's leading scorer in the regular season had 66 points
- the team was literally middle of the road in many "expected" metrics as a team (16th in xGF%)
-They were middle of the league in goals
-They were just outside the top 10 in goals against
-But they were 3rd in wins and got into the playoffs

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I don't have puppets on hand to explain to you the complexity of a conversation with more than 5 sentences, but he asked to find a team that's ever had these numbers. You're saying a team cannot have these numbers and still be a good team, yet, there are the Oilers of the past. it's not a hard concept to grasp.

Where have I ever said Vancouver isn’t a good team?

 

[olafsson]

Just finished skimming the thread. I'm not a fan of either team, but from what I can tell a summary of the 55 pages basically boils down to: the Canucks are very good and Oilers fans are very, very mad about it?

Winnar! Oilers fans are having fits over this and it’s glorious

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Just finished skimming the thread. I'm not a fan of either team, but from what I can tell a summary of the 55 pages basically boils down to: the Canucks are very good and Oilers fans are very, very mad about it?

They’re still seething over getting beat by the Canucks in 3 straight games by an aggregate score of 18-6. It’s a coping mechanism.
And to be fair, it’s not all Oiler fans, just some very vocal ones.