Vancouver led the league in points at Christmas, Can they continue this run into the New Year?

[WetcoastOrca]

Maybe we can settle all this bickering between Edmonton and Vancouver fans by having two Cup champions:
1. The one that wins the real games.
2. The statistical winner based on expected goals for and against.
That way everyone’s happy!

 

[winnipegger]

My expectation is that Vancouver wins the presidents trophy and is bounced in the first round. I know it's going to piss off my beloved friends in the lower mainland but I'm still not buying what you're selling. Edmonton on the other hand seems to have a very strong team with whatshisname doing what he does.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Crazy stat of the day:
Vancouver is now an absurd 29-0-1 when leading after 40 minutes.

 

[eviohh26]

My expectation is that Vancouver wins the presidents trophy and is bounced in the first round. I know it's going to piss off my beloved friends in the lower mainland but I'm still not buying what you're selling. Edmonton on the other hand seems to have a very strong team with whatshisname doing what he does.

I feel the same way about the Jets. You guys got swept by MTL for f*** sakes. Then smoked by Vegas.

 

[Jay26]

Just finished skimming the thread. I'm not a fan of either team, but from what I can tell a summary of the 55 pages basically boils down to: the Canucks are very good and Oilers fans are very, very mad about it?

Yep, close it up!

Crazy stat of the day:
Vancouver is now an absurd 29-0-1 when leading after 40 minutes.

Lucky teams don't have a stat like this.

 

[Jay26]

My expectation is that Vancouver wins the presidents trophy and is bounced in the first round. I know it's going to piss off my beloved friends in the lower mainland but I'm still not buying what you're selling. Edmonton on the other hand seems to have a very strong team with whatshisname doing what he does.

As a Canucks fan I could see this happening, but only due to inexperience. Even the 2019 Lightning got swept in the first round and learned from it.

I have no doubt, however, that this team is the real deal in general going forward. I'm at peace knowing the Canucks may not be quite there yet.

 

[CascadiaPuck]

That 2010-2011 team padded their record playing the rest of their division 8 times each, all of whom were going through painful rebuilds.

(or in the case of the Oilers: First Overall hogging)

The Canucks record outside their division that year was nearly identical to their divisional record I believe.

 

[Three On Zero]

If a train leaves Vancouver heading east at 80km/h carrying the entire Vancouver Canucks roster, and a train leaves Edmonton heading west at 75km/h carrying the Oilers roster, where does the Western Conference Final take place?

Nunavut

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

My expectation is that Vancouver wins the presidents trophy and is bounced in the first round. I know it's going to piss off my beloved friends in the lower mainland but I'm still not buying what you're selling. Edmonton on the other hand seems to have a very strong team with whatshisname doing what he does.

That could very well happen
All we know right now is Vancouver is 16 points ahead of Edmonton because no version of us started what 3-13?
What's lost in the oilers season saving run is Vancouver is 11-1-1 in its last 13 and has points in 17 of 19 in what was considered our toughest stretch, where we were told again and again, this is where we would fall apart.

The truth is all 3 teams has a string other fanbases can try to unravel but predicting we have a greater chance at losing in round 1 has no merit it's just an opinion likely bases on the fact of the 3 teams you like Vancouver the least.

I can easily say that skinner will choke along with Helle because that's already happened.

 

[kaiser matias]

That 2010-2011 team padded their record playing the rest of their division 8 times each, all of whom were going through painful rebuilds.

(or in the case of the Oilers: First Overall hogging)

Teams only played 6 divisional games that year:

The NHL schedule sees a team plays six games against each squad in its division (24 games), four games against the non-division clubs within its conference (40 games) plus 18 non-conference games.

Those non-conference games include at least one game against each club in the other conference (15 games) and three other games against select teams.

 

[Binder]

did some PDO math lol

keeping the current 28.1 SH/PG multiplied by the remaining 35 games, Vancouver would take another 983 shots this season adding in the 1320 they already have for a total of 2303 shots in 82 games

in order to get there shooting % to the league average of 10% i had to cut their current output of 3.79 G/PG all the way down to 2, which is worse than 32nd place San Jose(2.06) 16th is Vegas and 3.17

they've played too many games now for it to drop off, absolutely everything would have to go wrong at this point

35 games left = 28.1 x 35 = 983 shots
35 games x 2 G/PG = 70

current shooting %
178/1320 = 13.48484848 or 13.5% shooting

end of season production
178G+70G = 248G/1320S+983S = 2303S
248/2303 = 0.107685 or around 10.75% (this is would be an extreme decline in production)

realistically for the PDO bro's you might want to give up on this and move onto "they'll get swept in the 1st round"

the PDO regression argument barring injury or a major collapse in net is over,
the shooting % isn't coming down much more than a % or 2 in the regular season

reducing the current 3.79 G/PG down to a modest 2.75(Seattle is currently 27th with 2.74) to finish the last 35 games Vancouver would finish the season with around 12% shooting

 

[BCNate]

Canucks have been behind for less than 1 minute combined total over the last 9 games. I'm concerned that this a sign that the team is lucky and being consistently out played.

 

[docbenton]

Vancouver to some extent plays like the Russian teams of old...they don't waste shots. They cycle and try to set up high danger chances. This is different from most teams in the league who like to throw pucks on net. Carolina is a great example of the latter. That alone explains the high shooting percentage for so many players on the team. They also protect the middle and cross-ice passes and as a result perhaps allow more shots from the perimeter.

No all HD chances are created equal also; the trackers have clearly not figured out how to categorize chances or rate them on a scale to accurately reflects what happens on the ice. Vancouver has clearly done a good job of creating true HD chances - that is why they've scored on so many in a sustainable way.

There are plenty of games where they have the puck the whole first period and have maybe 6 shots and 3 goals. The lack of shots is not necessarily for a lack of control. Then the other team is chasing the game and score effects take place; Vancouver, a team at the top of the standings with a rough travel schedule, then plays a trap style that has worked well for them to protect leads and conserve energy.

 

[LuckyDay]

How they play the second half traditionally determines the results in the playoffs.
When the league had 21 teams and 16 made the playoffs, continuing to push in the standings could burn the team out. This is why the president trophy winner is known to choke.
But coasting to the playoffs is unsustainable now. There's too much parity and a team could easily lose their spot.
Factor in a losing record in previous seasons and inexperience, a team not used to winning is going to want to keep pushing in the regular season.

The other factor of the regular season vs the playoffs is scouting. Teams will study games and adjust over 7 games. A newly winning team won't be experienced to know how to adjust.

Depth also plays a role, especially when the officials put their whistles away.

 

[Szechwan]

My expectation is that Vancouver wins the presidents trophy and is bounced in the first round. I know it's going to piss off my beloved friends in the lower mainland but I'm still not buying what you're selling. Edmonton on the other hand seems to have a very strong team with whatshisname doing what he does.

As a Nucks fan this is 100% possible, the team has very little post season experience. They showed well in the bubble but that wasn't exactly recent.

Time will tell, I'm just enjoying the ride

 

[Grifter3511]

did some PDO math lol

keeping the current 28.1 SH/PG multiplied by the remaining 35 games, Vancouver would take another 983 shots this season adding in the 1320 they already have for a total of 2303 shots in 82 games

in order to get there shooting % to the league average of 10% i had to cut their current output of 3.79 G/PG all the way down to 2, which is worse than 32nd place San Jose(2.06) 16th is Vegas and 3.17

they've played too many games now for it to drop off, absolutely everything would have to go wrong at this point

35 games left = 28.1 x 35 = 983 shots
35 games x 2 G/PG = 70

current shooting %
178/1320 = 13.48484848 or 13.5% shooting

end of season production
178G+70G = 248G/1320S+983S = 2303S
248/2303 = 0.107685 or around 10.75% (this is would be an extreme decline in production)

realistically for the PDO bro's you might want to give up on this and move onto "they'll get swept in the 1st round"

the PDO regression argument barring injury or a major collapse in net is over,
the shooting % isn't coming down much more than a % or 2 in the regular season

reducing the current 3.79 G/PG down to a modest 2.75(Seattle is currently 27th with 2.74) to finish the last 35 games Vancouver would finish the season with around 12% shooting

I stated a similar thing many pages ago. It is too late for our PDO or shooting % to drop back to 'league averages.' But it is NOT too late for our PDO to 'drop off.'

I mean, if the Canucks PDO drops to, let' say 99%, for the remainder of the year, while we would still finish with most likely a league leading PDO and a higher than average rating, do you not agree that the PDO would indeed have dropped off?

So while it is, barring an epic collapse, too late for the Canucks Shooting and PDO to regress to the mean, it is not too late for it to regress.

 

[Saltcreek]

Vancouver to some extent plays like the Russian teams of old...they don't waste shots. They cycle and try to set up high danger chances. This is different from most teams in the league who like to throw pucks on net. Carolina is a great example of the latter. That alone explains the high shooting percentage for so many players on the team. They also protect the middle and cross-ice passes and as a result perhaps allow more shots from the perimeter.

No all HD chances are created equal also; the trackers have clearly not figured out how to categorize chances or rate them on a scale to accurately reflects what happens on the ice. Vancouver has clearly done a good job of creating true HD chances - that is why they've scored on so many in a sustainable way.

There are plenty of games where they have the puck the whole first period and have maybe 6 shots and 3 goals. The lack of shots is not necessarily for a lack of control. Then the other team is chasing the game and score effects take place; Vancouver, a team at the top of the standings with a rough travel schedule, then plays a trap style that has worked well for them to protect leads and conserve energy.

This sounds like the old “selective shooter” argument that was used by many when EP was shooting at 30%. Do you want to guess what happened to his shooting percentage the next season?

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Been a great year so far! Let’s see if they can keep it up. A lot of good things happen when you’re tops in the league at scoring the first goal and tops in the league when leading after two periods. That’s a winning formula.

‘The Vancouver Canucks currently rank 1st in the league and have the highest goal differential (+61) in the league. The Canucks currently have the most wins (29) when leading after two periods, have opened the scoring 33 times this season (first in the league) and have the most wins when scoring first (26).’

 

[snag]

I can easily say that skinner will choke along with Helle because that's already happened.

So with a total of 3GS and 4GP in the playoffs four years ago, what can you easily say about Demko?

 

[mkatcherin00]

People should check out the NHL Edge website. These are for Nuck fans. I have no comment on them as I have not looked at any other teams on it, but it is a neat website with some cool stats

I did not post them, but Demko is obviously playing really well. His high danger save % is great. He is at 0.858. Canucks have allowed about 75-100 more inner slot shots compared to the top teams that protect the slot better.

 

[Czechboy]

I can easily say that skinner will choke along with Helle because that's already happened.

Rookie season and he was terrible but so was Vasi! I definitely won't pretend he has good in the playoffs BUT here are the goalies behind him in Save Percentage in those same playoffs (note: Demko is not on the list at all)

Some elite goalies, HOF's, and Vezina winners on here.

Here are all the goalies that had more wins them him in the playoffs last season:

Last years Vezina winner (Ullmark) was .896 and he was .883... so he's keeping some great company. Again, no Demko as these are playoff stats.

And, for fun.. Jack Campbell led the playoffs in save percentage last year (.961 and I used minimum 4 games played)! No joke. So I guess this proves that Campbell is legit or maybe people are reading way too much into small sample sizes. Eg. Schmidd looked like he would be NJ's starter after the playoffs.. he was or is in the AHL recently.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

So with a total of 3GS and 4GP in the playoffs four years ago, what can you easily say about Demko?

We can easily say he’s better than Skinner and one of the top starters in the league.

 

[snag]

We can easily say he’s better than Skinner and one of the top starters in the league.

I am not denying that. But what has he done in the playoffs that we can easily say? That was what the easily made assertion about Skinner and Hellebyuck was about...

 

[Rowlet]

I am not denying that. But what has he done in the playoffs that we can easily say? That was what the easily made assertion about Skinner and Hellebyuck was about...

He got into Vegas' head so badly that their coach said they lost to Dallas because of it

 

[snag]

I am not denying that. But what has he done in the playoffs that we can easily say? That was what the easily made assertion about Skinner and Hellebyuck was about...

I am going to add to my comment....

Let's also not forget, Stuart is in his sophomore year. Demko has been around since 2017. And only this year posted a substantial win%. In fact.....head to head career wise, Skinner has Demko beat in win% (whoopdeedoo....only second year....but it is worth considering) and is only .001 off on career save%. Is Demko better NOW? Sure. No argument. But do we think Skinner is somehow precluded from growing into his role like Demko has and for that reason sucks?