Vancouver led the league in points at Christmas, Can they continue this run into the New Year?

[Wayward Son]

close thread garbigde materials. garbidge team all garbidge content in this team. they playing in easy western rocknroll hollywood plastic bullshit fake easy point division where jb millers and mediocre swedes always putted up.they should to force musselated hockeyplayers in this division also in law force defenshockey style there so they forced showing up in real face. off with hollywood mask from these teams they include nothing. not nhl at west. childrens hockey division

thank you

sir avgard hockeyprofessor

Please post more because this was a hell of a read

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

That is why PDO should not be taking into consideration, it is simply shot% + save% and doesn't tell a whole story. It is not a predictive stat, PDO is just a short hand for two stats of past games in the season.

PDO ignores all context. I've said it before, one of you nerds should break down PDO for every situation per 60, and we will get to have real discussions. Until that happens, it's just Canucks fans vs Anti-Camucks fans throwing the PDO ball back and forth.

At this point their pdo is so high it's more impressive than alarming. It's up there with the 80s/90s Islanders, oilers, and penguins. To me it just says they're an extremely skilled team.

 

[The90]

Oh my god you're not getting this at all so please stop your stupid yapping and try to understand.

Streaks tend to keep going until the routine is broken. You see this in tennis and basketball a lot -- when a team/player gets in a good groove, the opposing team/player will call a timeout or do some stalling tactic to try break the groove. Poker players also recognize this phenomenon most intimately: Every pro has a story where they go on an insane card rush, and they don't want it to end so they keep playing, often for days, staying awake with energy drinks and caffeine pills. Because they know if they stop and go to bed, the heater is over. And they never know when they'll get another one.

St. Louis got into a good rhythm in 2019 and because there was no break in routine, were able to ride it to a Cup. It's not about how long the streak lasted, or when it started. It's about the inertia, the momentum, the continuance of performance.

Vancouver is also on such a streak, and as long as they stick to their routine it seems they can just keep going. So at this point the most dangerous part of their schedule is..... the All Star Break.

Lol. Highest PDO since 1995.

 

[avgard]

POSTERboy of team vancouver jb millers even possible 100 points for season. noboty playing defens at allstargamelike divicion buildet up at west. laughable stylee when watching minits of their game. noboty taking down players. wonder why players there never listed for indrury time? yeah. no boty contact. fair would to hammer down at west also! hope in rare visit to hockeyplaying in eastern communities will show reality with this 0 talant team. watch karlsson going from easy west to steal town and disseappear in monumemtal trouble all included. bye! jb millers nothing. nothing. please miss at least 30 games in season as other players also. this league should not of having shelterarea where free lane of doing nothing and having personal scoreboards jumbothronenumbers up . you all knowing which players this include. bye . last time visiting horribull bullarea of this

sir avgard hockeyprofessor

 

[Pucklington]

Can they? Yes.

Will they? maybe.

 

[Grigowski]

HFBoards will crash and not be able to be recovered if the leafs make the finals.

HFBoards might have to shut down for good if the Leafs win the cup.

So HFBoards and the server is safe......

 

[HockeyWooot]

The lotto line and 3rd line is carrying the team now, along with our offense from D thanks to Hronek and Hughes.
Canucks should add a 2nd line center like Lindholm or a good winger like Guentzel to maintain their high octane offense into playoffs.

Lotto line have exploded, though over the last while depth particularly the Joshua Blueger Garland have been great too winning us games.

 

[The Management]

Pretty incredible season for the Canucks and their fans. Nobody would have had them ahead of Vegas, Edmonton, or Los Angeles at the start of the year.

 

[andora]

POSTERboy of team vancouver jb millers even possible 100 points for season. noboty playing defens at allstargamelike divicion buildet up at west. laughable stylee when watching minits of their game. noboty taking down players. wonder why players there never listed for indrury time? yeah. no boty contact. fair would to hammer down at west also! hope in rare visit to hockeyplaying in eastern communities will show reality with this 0 talant team. watch karlsson going from easy west to steal town and disseappear in monumemtal trouble all included. bye! jb millers nothing. nothing. please miss at least 30 games in season as other players also. this league should not of having shelterarea where free lane of doing nothing and having personal scoreboards jumbothronenumbers up . you all knowing which players this include. bye . last time visiting horribull bullarea of this

sir avgard hockeyprofessor

Think about this everyone there are 740 more of these

 

[Chairman Maouth]

close thread garbigde materials. garbidge team all garbidge content in this team. they playing in easy western rocknroll hollywood plastic bullshit fake easy point division where jb millers and mediocre swedes always putted up.they should to force musselated hockeyplayers in this division also in law force defenshockey style there so they forced showing up in real face. off with hollywood mask from these teams they include nothing. not nhl at west. childrens hockey division

thank you

sir avgard hockeyprofessor

 

[Diversification]

All I want for Christmas is a:

East
Toronto vs. Montreal

West
Winnipeg vs. Vancouver

Then Santa, I wish for:

Vancouver vs. Toronto Final

With a game 7 TOR victory in Vancouver.

LOL. Gary Bettman throughout the playoffs:

 

[Hasbro]

Yes! Get your hopes up Canuckleheads.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

LOL. Gary Bettman throughout the playoffs:

Wouldn't it be the opposite? Wouldn't he be excited that many fans are tuning in, and all sorts of commercial success is finally happening ?

 

[Diversification]

Wouldn't it be the opposite? Wouldn't he be excited that many fans are tuning in, and all sorts of commercial success is finally happening ?

Not really. An all-Canadian semi's and finals would be ratings poison south of the border.

 

[bossram]

Overly rigid misconceptions and stat-watching aside, I am very curious about where specifically this scenario and past scenarios differ/match, and I think there can be a really interesting discussion about that.

Anyone actually watching the Canucks games can observe that they naturally play a style that would specifically result in a very high PDO. They play a highly skilled and structured puck possession game where they have the puck most of the time but they'll never waste a shot unless it's a high danger scoring chance. They'll always hold onto the puck and regroup while maintaining puck possession if they don't see the scoring chance.

You can also argue that their defensive approach affects save% in the same way, being highly successful at getting goals early and then doing a good job of turtling and preventing high danger scoring chances, but in a way that allows the opposition to take as many low% shots as they want.

My question is, did past high-PDO teams also have high PDOs for that same reason, but something about that style of play itself is truly unsustainable (and if so, what specifically ended up being the reason that made it unsustainable?), or did they play no differently from everyone else and just happened to have high shooting % as a random stroke of luck?

If it's the latter, why HAVEN'T there been more high-skill teams approaching their game this way?

Those are the real questions, not this overly reductive bottom line numbers thing.

It's not really that interesting a question though. I think we know the answer.

We know there are teams and styles of play that do lead to above-100 PDOs consistently. We've seen it over time (in the modern era, teams like Boston and New York). Though in most cases, teams with blistering PDOs tend to return back to a more normal number.

However the Canucks are running a PDO hotter than a Penguins team that had Jagr and Lemiuex. The only conclusion that could lead one to believing that this level of shooting efficiency is sustainable for the Canucks is that they are simply the most skilled and efficient shooting team in the history of the NHL. This seems hard to believe.

I think we can conclude that luck definitely has a significant degree to their success. It doesn't mean they are not a good team.

 

[BWJM]

Canucks are officially wagon status this year

 

[Wayward Son]

POSTERboy of team vancouver jb millers even possible 100 points for season. noboty playing defens at allstargamelike divicion buildet up at west. laughable stylee when watching minits of their game. noboty taking down players. wonder why players there never listed for indrury time? yeah. no boty contact. fair would to hammer down at west also! hope in rare visit to hockeyplaying in eastern communities will show reality with this 0 talant team. watch karlsson going from easy west to steal town and disseappear in monumemtal trouble all included. bye! jb millers nothing. nothing. please miss at least 30 games in season as other players also. this league should not of having shelterarea where free lane of doing nothing and having personal scoreboards jumbothronenumbers up . you all knowing which players this include. bye . last time visiting horribull bullarea of this

sir avgard hockeyprofessor

 

[Phrasing]

POSTERboy of team vancouver jb millers even possible 100 points for season. noboty playing defens at allstargamelike divicion buildet up at west. laughable stylee when watching minits of their game. noboty taking down players. wonder why players there never listed for indrury time? yeah. no boty contact. fair would to hammer down at west also! hope in rare visit to hockeyplaying in eastern communities will show reality with this 0 talant team. watch karlsson going from easy west to steal town and disseappear in monumemtal trouble all included. bye! jb millers nothing. nothing. please miss at least 30 games in season as other players also. this league should not of having shelterarea where free lane of doing nothing and having personal scoreboards jumbothronenumbers up . you all knowing which players this include. bye . last time visiting horribull bullarea of this

sir avgard hockeyprofessor

You needed to sleep on this, review and edit again, and then ponder your life choices after you finally delete it.

 

[Drew Doubty]

It's not really that interesting a question though. I think we know the answer.

We know there are teams and styles of play that do lead to above-100 PDOs consistently. We've seen it over time (in the modern era, teams like Boston and New York). Though in most cases, teams with blistering PDOs tend to return back to a more normal number.

However the Canucks are running a PDO hotter than a Penguins team that had Jagr and Lemiuex. The only conclusion that could lead one to believing that this level of shooting efficiency is sustainable for the Canucks is that they are simply the most skilled and efficient shooting team in the history of the NHL. This seems hard to believe.

I think we can conclude that luck definitely has a significant degree to their success. It doesn't mean they are not a good team.

In no particular order I'd say the explanations for the Canucks high PDO are as follows:

1. Choosey shooters like Kuzmenko, Pettersson and Miller. Even Boeser isn't really a pure volume guy.
2. Many good -> great 1 shot scorers
3. Leading so often in games, especially early. I think they have scored first more than any team in the league and have the best differential in periods 1 and 2 - that leads to long periods of time where score effects are in play.
4. A top 5 goalie duo
5. A defensive structure which focuses on protecting the middle of the ice and allowing perimeter shots.
6. Luck - there's no question this is a factor here.

The debate is annoying because so many people want to say its all luck or its all skill rather than obviously being a mix of both. How much is anyone's guess, but the longer they do this, the more it tips in the direction of this team being able to maintain an above 100 pdo. 105? Not a chance.

 

[Regal]

It's not really that interesting a question though. I think we know the answer.

We know there are teams and styles of play that do lead to above-100 PDOs consistently. We've seen it over time (in the modern era, teams like Boston and New York). Though in most cases, teams with blistering PDOs tend to return back to a more normal number.

However the Canucks are running a PDO hotter than a Penguins team that had Jagr and Lemiuex. The only conclusion that could lead one to believing that this level of shooting efficiency is sustainable for the Canucks is that they are simply the most skilled and efficient shooting team in the history of the NHL. This seems hard to believe.

I think we can conclude that luck definitely has a significant degree to their success. It doesn't mean they are not a good team.

I think the suggestion from some has been that they’re not a good team and that is generally why there’s been a lot of pushback from fans because a bunch of the PDO pushers were overly focused on the terrible underlying numbers from the early season blowouts and never really updated their opinion. I said then that score effects were affecting the numbers and the underlying numbers would rise while the PDO drops. The team’s underlying numbers are now all pretty much slightly over 50% and I’d bet they go a bit higher considering they’re at a 52.4% xGF% 5v5 over their past 30.

Their style, goaltending and finishing ability should keep them at a higher than 100 PDO and if they keep up similar possession numbers they’ll remain ahead 5v5. I think what’s often lost with the PDO talk is that a lot of it has led to just winning by bigger margins. They’re over 60% in terms of GF% 5v5. Other teams that have gone on PDO heaters and tanked were barely keeping their heads above water despite the heater. As it stands, while their goal differential should decrease, there’s nothing in the numbers to suggest the bottom will fall out and they won’t cruise to 100 points. Whether they can sustain that success in the playoffs is another matter

 

[Regal]

Like the Kessel era leafs for a couple years. The blues were dead last doing the exact opposite of what Vancouver is doing and went in the complete other direction. Same principal just in the opposite direction.

There’s a difference between a heater where you win a bunch of close games and a heater where you’ve dominated goal differential. There’s a lot more room for regression before it becomes a problem with the latter

 

[Sykur]

Lol. Highest PDO since 1995.

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

That is why PDO should not be taking into consideration, it is simply shot% + save% and doesn't tell a whole story. It is not a predictive stat, PDO is just a short hand for two stats of past games in the season.

PDO ignores all context. I've said it before, one of you nerds should break down PDO for every situation per 60, and we will get to have real discussions. Until that happens, it's just Canucks fans vs Anti-Camucks fans throwing the PDO ball back and forth.

Why do Canucks fans keep throwing around this 'predictive stat' term. Any time your measuring something it's not a prediction, but anyone can tell you that past behavior predicts future behavior. Pdo showing Canucks have won their games by getting higher than average goaltending and higher than expected shooting %. And not by a bit, its by a substantial amount. Decades of the NHL has shown us this won't continue so its reasonable to expect Canucks to not win at this same rate moving forward. Come on guys, this isn't that complicated

 

[bossram]

In no particular order I'd say the explanations for the Canucks high PDO are as follows:

1. Choosey shooters like Kuzmenko, Pettersson and Miller. Even Boeser isn't really a pure volume guy.
2. Many good -> great 1 shot scorers
3. Leading so often in games, especially early. I think they have scored first more than any team in the league and have the best differential in periods 1 and 2 - that leads to long periods of time where score effects are in play.
4. A top 5 goalie duo
5. A defensive structure which focuses on protecting the middle of the ice and allowing perimeter shots.
6. Luck - there's no question this is a factor here.

The debate is annoying because so many people want to say its all luck or its all skill rather than obviously being a mix of both. How much is anyone's guess, but the longer they do this, the more it tips in the direction of this team being able to maintain an above 100 pdo. 105? Not a chance.

You've absolutely nailed it here. It's why I said in earlier post that I think the question is already "solved". Reasons 1-5 explain why they can maintain a PDO above 100 (although I think defensively they are not that great, but Demko/DeSmith have played very well). However, no team is going to sustainably be at 105. The reason they're that high is luck. Unless, again, people want to believe this is the most skilled team in NHL history, even moreseo than teams carrying Jagr and Lemiueux.

I think the suggestion from some has been that they’re not a good team and that is generally why there’s been a lot of pushback from fans because a bunch of the PDO pushers were overly focused on the terrible underlying numbers from the early season blowouts and never really updated their opinion. I said then that score effects were affecting the numbers and the underlying numbers would rise while the PDO drops. The team’s underlying numbers are now all pretty much slightly over 50% and I’d bet they go a bit higher considering they’re at a 52.4% xGF% 5v5 over their past 30.

Their style, goaltending and finishing ability should keep them at a higher than 100 PDO and if they keep up similar possession numbers they’ll remain ahead 5v5. I think what’s often lost with the PDO talk is that a lot of it has led to just winning by bigger margins. They’re over 60% in terms of GF% 5v5. Other teams that have gone on PDO heaters and tanked were barely keeping their heads above water despite the heater. As it stands, while their goal differential should decrease, there’s nothing in the numbers to suggest the bottom will fall out and they won’t cruise to 100 points. Whether they can sustain that success in the playoffs is another matter

Yes, I think we can confidently say they are a good team. They're 52+% on xG and scoring chances with plus-level shooting and goaltending talent. That is a threatening mix.

They were always going to cruise to 100 points after the hot start. They really just had to go .500 the rest of the way. The bottom is not going to fall out. They are a good team.

But there is still a contingent of people saying that this is just a uniquely skilled team leading to a 105 PDO level. That just seems hard to believe considering basically no other team in history played at that level of shooting efficiency.

 

[Hopeless Unbeliever]

Can they? Yes.

Will they? maybe.

Won't they? Possibly.

Can't they? No.