UNB Reds Thread (Part5)

[UNB Bruins Fan]

Put the Trainor in.

He is dressed tonight…might have to.

 

[dm8895]

Any word on Keating?

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

I notice Gilmour is listed on the box score…don’t think he played as they have 19 skaters listed, but did he take the warmup?

 

[Rob]

I notice Gilmour is listed on the box score…don’t think he played as they have 19 skaters listed, but did he take the warmup?

don’t think so. That would certainly be surprising

 

[Rob]

Ryan Roth went down in the first period. Did not return.

 

[RED ARMY EAST]

Ryan Roth went down in the first period. Did not return.

Hard hit, looked to be a lower body injury.

 

[dm8895]

don’t think so. That would certainly be surprising

He definitely did not, I saw him walk in to the rink around 6:30 haha

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

Any word on Keating?

Sigh of relief to see him back in the lineup tonight. They can’t afford to have him out.

 

[Campy]

I notice Gilmour is listed on the box score…don’t think he played as they have 19 skaters listed, but did he take the warmup?

Gilmour did not participate in the UPEI game, he is no longer appearing in the lineup in the Presto boxscore

 

[RED ARMY EAST]

Gilmour did not participate in the UPEI game, he is no longer appearing in the lineup in the Presto boxscore

I don't think you will see him in the lineup until march?

 

[RED ARMY EAST]

Hard hit, looked to be a lower body injury.

Not sure on Roth's status?

 

[unbNewf]

The AUS discipline page has a one game suspension for Jesse Sutton (UPEI) from the UNB game on the 19th. Was that from the hit on Roth?

 

[dm8895]

Does anyone know if either of the remaining home games will be the Mark Jeffrey Game? Would be sad to not see a MJMG this year .

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

Keating injured again…and then moments later SMU takes the lead.

Down 4-3 with a 41-21 shot advantage…the lack of finish is glaring right now…and the defense hasn’t been nearly as tight as it was before the break.

107 shots last weekend with 5 goals…another 90 this weekend with 5 goals.

 

[AUS Fan]

The glass is always 1/2 empty isn't it?

A lot of the shots tonight "hit" the goalie.

I'm sure there are 6 teams who would love to get 100 plus shots and clinch 1st place.

 

[Rob]

Keating injured again…and then moments later SMU takes the lead.

Down 4-3 with a 41-21 shot advantage…the lack of finish is glaring right now…and the defense hasn’t been nearly as tight as it was before the break.

107 shots last weekend with 5 goals…another 90 this weekend with 5 goals.

They struggled with goal scoring earlier in the season but then found their rhythm by November. The loss of Boland and Guay has certainly hurt. They are a fast team, play hard and maintain possession. They just don’t have the hands right now.

 

[RED ARMY EAST]

They struggled with goal scoring earlier in the season but then found their rhythm by November. The loss of Boland and Guay has certainly hurt. They are a fast team, play hard and maintain possession. They just don’t have the hands right now.

They are still generating 45-50 shots per game and holding the balance of puck possession, but struggling to finish around the net, since play resumed. The return of Gilmour would certainly help, as far as I know, he has been skating since the team resumed play.
I think that they run the table with Parenteau now.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

Hopefully Keating isn’t seriously injured.

 

[RED ARMY EAST]

Hopefully Keating isn’t seriously injured.

From what I saw, it didn't look good.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

From what I saw, it didn't look good.

It kinda looked like the same thing that happened against Moncton…perhaps he re-aggravated something.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

They struggled with goal scoring earlier in the season but then found their rhythm by November. The loss of Boland and Guay has certainly hurt. They are a fast team, play hard and maintain possession. They just don’t have the hands right now.

I got curious so I looked at the last 15 years of UNB stats...

Their shooting percentage is 9.47% so far this year...by far their worst mark in at least the last 15 years (10.9% in 2017/18).

By comparison they were at 12.8% in 2019/20. If they were at 12.8% this year (with the same 876 SOG) they would have 29 more goals. Even if they were at 10.9% that's an extra 12 goals.

Compared to other teams this year:
St. FX is at 14.18% (This seems abnormally high....outside a couple of years where UNB was at 13.6% it seems most years the leader is in the 12-13% range)
Dal - 13.29%
SMU - 12.8%
LEAGUE AVERAGE - 10.81%
UNB - 9.47%
Acadia - 9.14%
UPEI - 8.91% (Panthers have the second most SOG this year 1t 774)
Moncton - 8.52%

So a big gap between the top three teams and the bottom four this year.

If UNB had St. FX's shooting percentage they would have 124 goals this year...41 (or almost 50%) more than the 83 they have.

I really don't know what to make of these numbers, especially without doing more research that covers multiple years...
- not sure if it's one of those things that would eventually even out towards the league average over time (ie/ is UNB "due" for some better results moving forward).
- how much does luck and chance play in to it vs. skill? (ie/ is UNB just running into hot goaltending more than usual, is it just "one of those years" and is an outlier, or do they just not have as much talent at putting the puck in the net compared to other years...like most things the answer probably lies somewhere in the middle).
- how much does the league average (or even team average) fluctuates from year to year. For example, the only time in the last five years UNB did not lead the league in shooting percentage was 2017/18 when they were at 10.9% and ranked 5th...by comparison Acadia is 5th this year at 9.1% - a noticeable difference. Although I would guess the league average remains fairly similar year to year, but just with less of a gap between the best and worst teams than this season.
- what is the correlation between number of shots and shooting percentage? UNB and UPEI have been the top two teams generating SOG this season, but both have below average shooting percentages. At first glance I would have said that makes sense...that teams with higher shot totals would tend to have lower shooting percentage because they achieve the volume by putting a lot of low quality shots on goal. However, UNB has led the league in shooting percentage in four of the previous five years even though they routinely lead the league in shots, which is a pretty nice combination to have.

 

[dm8895]

The glass is always 1/2 empty isn't it?

A lot of the shots tonight "hit" the goalie.

I'm sure there are 6 teams who would love to get 100 plus shots and clinch 1st place.

I'm almost glad they lost a game and were tested twice last weekend, we all remember 27-1... I remember in midget my team had won our last 12 regular season games and then come playoff time we were so used to being on cruise control and couldn't raise our compete level or even wrap our brains around how we were losing. Sometimes a loss is a win, but my fellow UNB fans seem to think 30-0-0 and a minimum of 4 goal margin in every game is required for it to be a successful year haha

 

[RED ARMY EAST]

Rem....2003, undefeated Alberta lost to UNB in a one and done semi at the University Cup.
Stauffer remembers it well. The following year, X knocked them off.

 

[RED ARMY EAST]

Out of the 16 skaters at practice Wednesday, Gilmour and Keating looked to be misssing?
As a precaution, It's highly doubtful that they will be in the lineup this weekend.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

With no Keating or Gilmour last night it was the least optimistic I’ve been for a home game in quite some time…so it was nice to see them get a win.

Still concerned about the lack of finish though with another near 50 shot game and only two goals to show for it…that’s seven games in a row now where they have failed to score more than three goals in a game, which I would bet is their longest streak ever under MacDougall. Hoping they can break out a bit tonight.