Prospect Info: Tyler Boucher (RW/LW) - Don`t sleep on Tyler Boucher

[RAFI BOMB]

Interesting data.

The last chart says "Over half of all goals come from less than 30 degrees off the center line" but then indicates that the percentages are 12.3 + 9.7 = 22% for the right side "less than 30 degrees" of the ice surface which presumably would mean 44% if the percentages were the same 22% for the left side shots. Or perhaps the left side shots account for 28% of the shots. Hmm. Am I reading this correctly?

I'm not sure exactly. I checked the article and this is what is says directly after the chart:

The closer you are not just to the net, but also to the center line of the ice helps increase your chances. Once again, this makes sense. When one shoots from the middle of the ice, one can see more space around a goaltender and has that many more options in terms of where to place the puck. In turn, the goaltender also must cover much more space in defense. As the angle of a shot increases, a shooter sees much less of a net - so there are fewer shot locations to target. Similarly, the goaltender has a smaller area which they must defend. Often, as a goalie, if you seal up the post, you've almost completely removed opportunities for an opponent to score if they are shooting from a sharp angle.

Maybe one variable to consider is the right or left handedness of players. The chart provided 7 different shot angles on one side of the ice and there would be 7 equivalent shot angles on the opposite side of the ice. While the angles are equivalent, a player's handedness and the side of the ice they are on actually changes the the shot angles available to them. Particularly at the wider angles a right handed player has a better angle available to him on the left side of the ice than the right side of the ice and the same would be the case with a left handed player on the right side of the ice versus the left.

I'm not sure if that is the explanation but it might be worth considering n relation to your question.

 

[BondraTime]

The closer you are to the net and the closer you are to the middle of the ice, the more likely you are to score, nothing really more than that, pretty widely accepted fact.

Having the talent and skill to actually do that is a much different thing.

 

[Cosmix]

I'm not sure exactly. I checked the article and this is what is says directly after the chart:

Maybe one variable to consider is the right or left handedness of players. The chart provided 7 different shot angles on one side of the ice and there would be 7 equivalent shot angles on the opposite side of the ice. While the angles are equivalent, a player's handedness and the side of the ice they are on actually changes the the shot angles available to them. Particularly at the wider angles a right handed player has a better angle available to him on the left side of the ice than the right side of the ice and the same would be the case with a left handed player on the right side of the ice versus the left.

I'm not sure if that is the explanation but it might be worth considering n relation to your question.

Thanks for your thoughts on this.

I think there are more left handed shooting players than right handed. Which would mean that there may be left handed shooting players playing at RW. That might reduce their ability to shoot from the RW side if the D forces them to the boards and prevents crossing into the middle of the ice. That might cause the right side to be lower at 22% versus the left side being higher at 28%. I suspect something else is at play here though because that is a 6% difference which is quite large.

 

[Hale The Villain]

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View attachment 576821 That don't impress me much ... lol

Don't sleep on Brennan Othmann

What makes the Boucher pick infuriating is that Othmann, Sillinger and Coronato all bring a physical element to their game, but unlike Boucher all of them actually have top 6 talent and IQ, and they all went within the 11-15 range so it's not like Boucher was the only player on the board that fit the style the Sens are looking to play. All 3 look like future top 6 forwards right now - can't say the same for Boucher.

Got blinded by Boucher being the biggest and toughest and forgot that IQ and skill matter far more in determining the success of prospects.

 

[Sweatred]

What makes the Boucher pick infuriating is that Othmann, Sillinger and Coronato all bring a physical element to their game, but unlike Boucher all of them actually have top 6 talent and IQ, and they all went within the 11-15 range so it's not like Boucher was the only player on the board that fit the style the Sens are looking to play. All 3 look like future top 6 forwards right now - can't say the same for Boucher.

Got blinded by Boucher being the biggest and toughest and forgot that IQ and skill matter far more in determining the success of prospects.

I don’t know - I wasn’t impressed at all with Othmann’s last game -

Small sample size but what I was shocked his game was better vs a fairly weak opponent.

He was basically involved after the whistle in scrums - drilling a WJC kid is far securing top 6 NHL play.

Shades of a modern version of Tootoo. He did that 5x’s a game.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I don’t know - I wasn’t impressed at all with Othmann’s last game -

Small sample size but what I was shocked his game was better vs a fairly weak opponent.

He was basically involved after the whistle in scrums - drilling a WJC kid is far securing top 6 NHL play.

Shades of a modern version of Tootoo. He did that 5x’s a game.

Othmann scored 50 goals and had 97 points in 66 games for Flint.

He almost had as many goals as his next closest teammate Lombardi had in total points (59).

Had a phenomenal year and looks like a great pick for the Rangers.

 

[Sweatred]

Othmann scored 50 goals and had 97 points in 66 games for Flint.

He almost had as many goals as his next closest teammate Lombardi had in total points (59).

Had a phenomenal year and looks like a great pick for the Rangers.

Ya - as I said I wasn’t impressed with his WJC game - Lazar had 50 goals too in junior… so did kastelic.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Ya - as I said I wasn’t impressed with his WJC game - Lazar had 50 goals too in junior… so did kastelic.

Neither hit 50 goals in a single year, but more importantly neither came close to 97 points or leading their team in scoring by 38 points.

Othmann isn't just a goal scorer. He can set them up just as well.

 

[ottawah]

Othmann scored 50 goals and had 97 points in 66 games for Flint.

He almost had as many goals as his next closest teammate Lombardi had in total points (59).

Had a phenomenal year and looks like a great pick for the Rangers.

Yes it was good, but I have two rules to remember when evaluating CHL forward (and generally even defensive) prospects.

1. High end CHL production does not mean the player will make the NHL.
2. Lack of high end CHL production means it is very unlikely you can make the NHL as a regular player.

I know people want to pick on the second rule as its somewhat the subject of this thread, but its just going from experience. As a verification, I looked at the 2010 NHL draft, 12 years ago, those players are all 30, figured that was a good baseline as players by that age are generally winding down and careers are well defined. The top 19 forwards from the CHL in that draft (based on NHL games played) all scored at least a PPG D+1 year (or were in the NHL) except for Smith-Pelley, who was 1 short (plus over PPG draft year and PPG if you included the playoffs). The best CHL player from that draft not at that production level was Sam Carrick with 111 games played (.7 PPG D+1 year).

For the first rule, you really have to look at how they are managing production and their weaknesses. Corey Locke was at 2.5PPG his draft year and was CHL player of the year, yet was drafted in the 4th round, and only had a few NHL Games. I'm always cautious about reading too much into production, only lack of production.

 

[GCK]

Even Boucher’s dad sees him as a potential .5ppg player in the NHL. I didn’t like the pick, still have big concerns about the offensive potential. Having said that, I’m glad we stayed away from Sillinger, I preferred Coronato.

 

[God Says No]

Yes it was good, but I have two rules to remember when evaluating CHL forward (and generally even defensive) prospects.

1. High end CHL production does not mean the player will make the NHL.
2. Lack of high end CHL production means it is very unlikely you can make the NHL as a regular player.

I know people want to pick on the second rule as its somewhat the subject of this thread, but its just going from experience. As a verification, I looked at the 2010 NHL draft, 12 years ago, those players are all 30, figured that was a good baseline as players by that age are generally winding down and careers are well defined. The top 19 forwards from the CHL in that draft (based on NHL games played) all scored at least a PPG D+1 year (or were in the NHL) except for Smith-Pelley, who was 1 short (plus over PPG draft year and PPG if you included the playoffs). The best CHL player from that draft not at that production level was Sam Carrick with 111 games played (.7 PPG D+1 year).

For the first rule, you really have to look at how they are managing production and their weaknesses. Corey Locke was at 2.5PPG his draft year and was CHL player of the year, yet was drafted in the 4th round, and only had a few NHL Games. I'm always cautious about reading too much into production, only lack of production.

Great rules. That's pretty much how I evaluate (in my amateur pants) as well. Boucher falls into rule #2.

 

[Larionov]

The other factor here is "bloodlines". This club loves to draft the sons of former NHLers/top prospects - Brady is the obvious one, but you also have Norris, Batherson and Sanderson. Did the fact that this was Brian Boucher's kid influence the pick? You can bet that it did...

 

[ijif]

The other factor here is "bloodlines". This club loves to draft the sons of former NHLers/top prospects - Brady is the obvious one, but you also have Norris, Batherson and Sanderson. Did the fact that this was Brian Boucher's kid influence the pick? You can bet that it did...

Cole Sillinger’s dad says hello.

 

[Larionov]

Cole Sillinger’s dad says hello.

Oh sure, there are plenty of others. We seem to have a bit of a thing for American or near-American former NHLers, though. ;-) (Batherson was born in Fort Wayne when his dad was playing in the IHL.)

 

[BondraTime]

Over 25% of Ottawa’s 57 draft picks since 2015 are sons of professional hockey players, they absolutely take bloodlines into account and value them, as they should.

 

[ottawah]

Over 25% of Ottawa’s 57 draft picks since 2015 are sons of professional hockey players, they absolutely take bloodlines into account and value them, as they should.

I wonder what it is like as a whole across the league. Certainly seems to be more.

Interesting would be a comparison of draft position and outcome. I have found sons of former players tend to be early bloomers.

 

[Tragedy]

I don’t know - I wasn’t impressed at all with Othmann’s last game -

Small sample size but what I was shocked his game was better vs a fairly weak opponent.

He was basically involved after the whistle in scrums - drilling a WJC kid is far securing top 6 NHL play.

How does it compare to Boucher's last WJC game? Oh wait...

 

[IranCondraAffair]

Yes it was good, but I have two rules to remember when evaluating CHL forward (and generally even defensive) prospects.

1. High end CHL production does not mean the player will make the NHL.
2. Lack of high end CHL production means it is very unlikely you can make the NHL as a regular player.

I know people want to pick on the second rule as its somewhat the subject of this thread, but its just going from experience. As a verification, I looked at the 2010 NHL draft, 12 years ago, those players are all 30, figured that was a good baseline as players by that age are generally winding down and careers are well defined. The top 19 forwards from the CHL in that draft (based on NHL games played) all scored at least a PPG D+1 year (or were in the NHL) except for Smith-Pelley, who was 1 short (plus over PPG draft year and PPG if you included the playoffs). The best CHL player from that draft not at that production level was Sam Carrick with 111 games played (.7 PPG D+1 year).

For the first rule, you really have to look at how they are managing production and their weaknesses. Corey Locke was at 2.5PPG his draft year and was CHL player of the year, yet was drafted in the 4th round, and only had a few NHL Games. I'm always cautious about reading too much into production, only lack of production.

What he said. NCAA, AHL, and Swedish leagues are different beasts. For CHL prospects, even defensemen, being able to score is basically 90% of projecting those guys,

 

[DJB]

How does it compare to Boucher's last WJC game? Oh wait...

Mark Giordano
Joe Pavelski
Chara
Holtby
Seguin
Vlasic
Krug
Duchene
G Nyqvist
D Keith


All never played for their country at the WJHC.

Not saying Boucher is going to have a career like any of these guys but it’s not like it’s a death sentence to an NHL career

 

[BondraTime]

Mark Giordano
Joe Pavelski
Chara
Holtby
Seguin
Vlasic
Krug
Duchene
G Nyqvist
D Keith


All never played for their country at the WJHC.

Not saying Boucher is going to have a career like any of these guys but it’s not like it’s a death sentence to an NHL career

Half those guys were good players in the the NHL while still eligible for the WJ’s or guys that were not even apart of an NHL organization until the were older than 20.

 

[DJB]

Half those guys were good players in the the NHL while still eligible for the WJ’s or guys that were not even apart of an NHL organization until the were older than 20.

That was just a short list of players I came up with. You and I both know there are others

 

[BondraTime]

That was just a short list of players I came up with. You and I both know there are others

Yeah I was reading that article with those guys.

In full agreement you don't need to play at the WJ to be a very good NHLer.

There are many others, but that list has absolutely nothing to do with Boucher, selected in the top 10.

If a guy is playing in the NHL as a teenager, him not being on a World Junior team doesn’t mean anything, which the article states but then doesn't seem to follow listing 3 of them.

Likewise, if a guy is undrafted or a late pick, they aren’t going to be WJ invitees for the most part.

There are loads of guys who never played at the WJ who went on to successful careers, probably over 50% of the league, but that group of guys doesn’t really illustrate a point with Boucher.

05'- Setegucci
06'- Sheppard
07'- Couture, Hamill, Ellerby
08'- Bailey
09'- Glennie
10'- McIlrath
11'-
12'- Koekkoek, Dumba, Pouliot
13'-
14'- Dal Colle, Fleury
15'-
16'-
17'- Rasmussen, Glass, Tippett
18'-
19'-
20'-
21'- Boucher, Clarke

These are the guys since 05' in the top 10 who never played in the World Juniors or NHL in their D+1, bolded players never made it at all. Two very good players included

Boucher is the only American who wasn't on the WJ team or NHL in his D+1 since 05' drafted in the top 10 out of 32 selected, which is no big deal but is usually a given, and will be there this season, without a doubt.

 

[God Says No]

That was just a short list of players I came up with. You and I both know there are others

Sure, but the red flags are piling up. Him getting cut is just another red flag.

 

[Sweatred]

Sure, but the red flags are piling up. Him getting cut is just another red flag.

That worries me as much as Greig getting cut from his D+1 WJC.

 

[SevenOfSpades]

That worries me as much as Greig getting cut from his D+1 WJC.

Didn't Greig catch COVID?