Two years later: Revisiting the Kotkaniemi - Dvorak swap

[GrandBison]

Speaking of value, what would you give up for Filip Bystedt today?

Of course bergevin panicked. Carolina made a ridiculous offer for a marginal player who bergevin had slotted in as our number 2 center months after his team was 3 wins away from the Stanley cup. No one expected Carolina would make such a dumb move in order to exact revenge on bergevin.

In the end, it worked out for us. It was the final nail in the coffin in the bergevin era, for the gm and the team.

Carolina acquired a goofy player in a goofy manner, and then signed him to a goofy 8 year deal.

I think it was a very imaginative OS. Too bad OS only works with marginal players.

 

[Frank Drebin]

I think it was a very imaginative OS. Too bad OS only works with marginal players.

It was very imaginative. Not sure any other team in the league would have thought of it.

But hey, they got their guy. Well played.

 

[le_sean]

Can you imagine a world where you bring a player down because he's having his best offensive season just to make a hyperbolic point that no one is even arguing about?

I think i need to remind you what the point of the thread is:

Kotka was let go on a offer sheet. We're trying to find out if it was a good move? right?

How do we do that? Lets try and see how he's performing: Great.
Now lets try and see how he's performing vs our current players: Eats them for lunch one by one.

So whats the verdict, how do we feel about the move?

Jeez i don't know, it seems like he's doing great for himself, better than our players so far, seems like we're losing this one.

How does le_sean feel about the move? Drasitle rah rah Jospeh rah rah oilers rah rah... thank you le_sean for your insightful analysis

You’re the one that keeps comparing KK’s 5v5 production to Suzuki. It wasn’t me that brought up the point. Then @GrandBison gave you multiple reasons as to why that stat makes no sense in player evaluation. I just doubled down on it. The fact remains KK is a 40 point player. He’s proving it time and time again. Scoring streaks combined with scoring droughts. He’s an okay player, but that’s it. He doesn’t play more than 15 minutes a game because he doesn’t deserve more than 15 minutes a game. He is what he is, a good 3rd line centre, or average 2nd line centre.

You’re just upset because you cherry picked a stat to bring down the Habs best centre to say the move was stupid then people pointed out how your stat is pointless without context.

 

[Whitesnake]

Speaking of value, what would you give up for Filip Bystedt today?

Of course bergevin panicked. Carolina made a ridiculous offer for a marginal player who bergevin had slotted in as our number 2 center months after his team was 3 wins away from the Stanley cup. No one expected Carolina would make such a dumb move in order to exact revenge on bergevin.

In the end, it worked out for us. It was the final nail in the coffin in the bergevin era, for the gm and the team.

Carolina acquired a goofy player in a goofy manner, and then signed him to a goofy 8 year deal.

Not sure what your point is about Bystedt. I don't scout him enough to know his value. Hopefully the pros paid to do that do know it.

Strange that having to fire a GM means that it worked out for us......Still, just like that we lost Danault and JK for nothing. And acquired Dvorak for a 1st and a 2nd. In that very important position that is centerman. It didn't work out for us. We are still a mid-team that still misses tons of important parts to play a significant role in this league. Even when Dach comes back. He will need 2 top end wingers.

What Carolina does or doesn't do is insanely irrelevant to what my team does. Them doing great or not-so great things is just 1 team out of the other 31 teams competing.

The ONLY reason why we NOW hear how it's working out for us is JK not producing lately. Which is, again, totally irrelevant to what Bergevin had to work with at the time and how that whole JK dossier was handled.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

The only player that matters at the time and still today is Danault. Best player of the 3 back then, best player today. KK was almost absent at the Cup Run while Danault was shutting down Matthews (Maurice R trophy), Connors and Marchessault. Taking all the most crucial FO and controling the center ice. He still does that today with any Kings winger to play with. LA Kings are top of the league right now while Dvorak and KK sucks. Kings are looking at the future Cup Run. Not in 3 or 4 or 6 years, no, next spring 24, 25 or 26,

But to compare only Dvorak and KK, I prefer KK. Younger and still have some potential. And sometimes KK drop gloves, well, not like Tkachuk, oh well let's forget Tkachuk I wrote here I wanted him a soon as there was a thread about that draft.

Imagine today we have Danault, KK, Lehkonen, Toffoli and the 1rst Dvorak cost us. Plus Suzuki, Caufield, Dach and Ghule. Jeezus Christ I'm depress ! What a disaster !

Uh, what????

I like Dano too but he wanted way too much cash. Keeping that team together would’ve made no sense.

 

[Bombshell11]

You’re the one that keeps comparing KK’s 5v5 production to Suzuki. It wasn’t me that brought up the point. Then @GrandBison gave you multiple reasons as to why that stat makes no sense in player evaluation. I just doubled down on it. The fact remains KK is a 40 point player. He’s proving it time and time again. Scoring streaks combined with scoring droughts. He’s an okay player, but that’s it. He doesn’t play more than 15 minutes a game because he doesn’t deserve more than 15 minutes a game. He is what he is, a good 3rd line centre, or average 2nd line centre.

You’re just upset because you cherry picked a stat to bring down the Habs best centre to say the move was stupid then people pointed out how your stat is pointless without context.

Oh gawd man

I don't care if its Suzuki or Gionta or Koivu... Kotka is more efficient on 5vs5 per 60 mins than any of our forwards. That does not make Kotka a better player, i never argued for that. I din't say Suzuki couldn't score more points with a different team either did i?

But when you take the perfomance of a player at 5vs5 per 60 it is a good indication that this player is a pretty effective player.

Why are you defending Marc Bergevin? This is what you're doing. He's the one who made the move. He f***ed up... whats the deal with the hate on Kotka?

 

[DAChampion]

Oh gawd man

I don't care if its Suzuki or Gionta or Koivu... Kotka is more efficient on 5vs5 per 60 mins than any of our forwards. That does not make Kotka a better player, i never argued for that. I din't say Suzuki couldn't score more points with a different team either did i?

But when you take the perfomance of a player at 5vs5 per 60 it is a good indication that this player is a pretty effective player.

Why are you defending Marc Bergevin? This is what you're doing. He's the one who made the move. He f***ed up... whats the deal with the hate on Kotka?

If Kotkaniemi ends up with a better 5on5 P/60 at the end of the season than Suzuki, I'll be inclined to think it's a fluke.

 

[le_sean]

Oh gawd man

I don't care if its Suzuki or Gionta or Koivu... Kotka is more efficient on 5vs5 per 60 mins than any of our forwards. That does not make Kotka a better player, i never argued for that. I din't say Suzuki couldn't score more points with a different team either did i?

But when you take the perfomance of a player at 5vs5 per 60 it is a good indication that this player is a pretty effective player.

Why are you defending Marc Bergevin? This is what you're doing. He's the one who made the move. He f***ed up... whats the deal with the hate on Kotka?

I’m not defending Marc Bergevin. I didn’t even mention him.

How efficient has Kotkaniemi been the last 12 games? Be interested in knowing.

 

[GrandBison]

If Kotkaniemi ends up with a better 5on5 P/60 at the end of the season than Suzuki, I'll be inclined to think it's a fluke.

It will only mean that pts/60 min is a useless stat.

 

[LaP]

I’m not defending Marc Bergevin. I didn’t even mention him.

How efficient has Kotkaniemi been the last 12 games? Be interested in knowing.

Does it matter?

2nd line and 3rd line players are inconsistent. That's why they are not first line players. What matters is what they do over 82 games. It looks like JK is settling down as a 15 to 20 goals and 40 to 50 points player who plays well both side of the rink.

Considering the price Carolina paid for him and his contract it's perfectly fine. They paid slightly less for JK (1st and low 3rd round pick) than we paid for Dvorak (1st and potentially high 2nd round pick). He's also younger.

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

Uh, what????

I like Dano too but he wanted way too much cash. Keeping that team together would’ve made no sense.

5,5 M was way toom much cash ????? He made the difference LA made the PO or not, and you find it's too much $$$ ?

And your beloved Dvorak at 4,5 M is the kind of bargain you like ???
This is the kind of team you want to built? Dvorak at 4,5, Armia at 3,5, you agree with that but you disagree with Danault 5,5 ?

Hellooo !!! Houston is calling the space rocket. Hello Houston calling, are you all right ?

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

I could’ve lived with letting Danault walk. Bergevin had no vision. All the vets that took us to a SCF were broken beyond repair after it. We knew Price and Weber, who were the two main pieces of the core would likely never play again so it made no sense trying to patch the team. Yet they did it anyways making panic moves to avoid a rebuild that was inevitable. Classic case of a GM being approved by incompetent ownership making moves to save his own hide instead of putting the well being of the team ahead.

So if you are confortable letting Danault walk, who replace him? Evans? Kotka? Dvorak ?

I mean, someone have to take the duty of second C. Monahan is doing fine, when heathly. A player with high injury risk vs Danault no history injury risk.

 

[rik schau]

Bergevin started off on the right foot,no one in their right mind would have matched the offer, that would have been a fireable offense. There was absolutely no justification based on his play to date to garner that contract. Trading for Dvorak is a separate issue imo.

 

[le_sean]

5,5 M was way toom much cash ????? He made the difference LA made the PO or not, and you find it's too much $$$ ?

And your beloved Dvorak at 4,5 M is the kind of bargain you like ???
This is the kind of team you want to built? Dvorak at 4,5, Armia at 3,5, you agree with that but you disagree with Danault 5,5 ?

Hellooo !!! Houston is calling the space rocket. Hello Houston calling, are you all right ?

You keep Danault and you’re not picking 1st in 2022 or 5th in 2023. You keep the Habs floundering in mediocrity with what is likely a pick in the 10-15 range those years with no real future. This might even keep Bergevin around. No Dach because there’s no room for him.

 

[Bombshell11]

I’m not defending Marc Bergevin. I didn’t even mention him.

How efficient has Kotkaniemi been the last 12 games? Be interested in knowing.

You're indirectly defending Bergevin. I know it sounds dirty when I put it this way but its the truth.

To be honest i don't care we put too much energy into this.

All i know is that kotka is 23 years old and was a 3rd OA, the door is open for him to become a good center in the NHL and right now he's doing a decent job. At 5 mil he's providing good value to his team and he's got room to improve.

Don't ask me what he did the last 5 games, i don't give, its irrelevant.

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

You keep Danault and you’re not picking 1st in 2022 or 5th in 2023. You keep the Habs floundering in mediocrity with what is likely a pick in the 10-15 range those years with no real future. This might even keep Bergevin around. No Dach because there’s no room for him.

Having Suzuki, Danault and Dach is better than what we have now. Not just for pts production but developping new players. When Danault was 1C, the team was stocked in mediocrity because Danault wasn't a real 1C. It's different with the addition of Suzuki. Despite having Tatar and Gally as wingers, Danault had seasons in the+. The problem was the other lines, all in the -.

A good gm keep the good and remove the bad. If a gm throw everything, good and bad, he make a mistake by throwing the good. Bergevin replaced a good (Danault) by a bad (Dvorak). We're stocked with Dvorak till the end of his contract, so his 1M bargain doesn't look sexy at all. LA Kings did the right move. We gave a 1rst and an early 2nd for Dvo, don't forget it.

With the broken Weber and Price, of course the team was going into a slump for year or two. But being in a deep slump of 4 years isn't funny. Some fans fear Habs will become the new Sabres. It's very risky having to rebuilt everything. Just read all the posters who are not buying the moves of Hughes and Gorton.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

5,5 M was way toom much cash ????? He made the difference LA made the PO or not, and you find it's too much $$$ ?

Yes.

And your beloved Dvorak at 4,5 M is the kind of bargain you like ???
This is the kind of team you want to built? Dvorak at 4,5, Armia at 3,5, you agree with that but you disagree with Danault 5,5 ?

Dvorak was a dunderheaded move. Why is he being brought up?

Hellooo !!! Houston is calling the space rocket. Hello Houston calling, are you all right ?

The team we had was going nowhere. It needed to be torn down and rebuilt. We weren’t going to win anything with the core we had. Letting Dano go was absolutely the right move. He doesn’t fit in with a rebuilding club and 5.5 is a lot of cash for little offensive production.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Having Suzuki, Danault and Dach is better than what we have now.

You’re looking at things through the wrong lense. With or without Dano we’d be going nowhere and Dano would be wasted here. Much better to let him go and rebuild with younger players.

 

[nhlfan9191]

So if you are confortable letting Danault walk, who replace him? Evans? Kotka? Dvorak ?

I mean, someone have to take the duty of second C. Monahan is doing fine, when heathly. A player with high injury risk vs Danault no history injury risk.

I find someone for cheap in UFA and tear it all down. There’s no need for finding a replacement the summer of 2021. The team was going to suck anyways.

 

[Jaaanosik]

KK was indeed a bambi and needed to gain lower strengh to become really effective at the nhl level. He had the IQ and skills all along with solid instincts.

Slaf is 40 pounds heavier and still doesnt understand how to take advantage of it. He's so far away from understanding the game... Can't deny he's way less effective than KK was his first 2 years, not even close.

KK is becoming a surefire 2C with size and defense for 4.8m till 2030... canes are rofling at us.

Kid had GREAT playoffs and got scratch the day ( his birthday ...) he could break Gretzky record.... bet yall would have done the same with canes contract after Ducharme total disrespect.

This post aged well...

 

[Ozmodiar]

1) Suzuki wouldn't be the first line center on the Hurricanes. It would still be Aho.

Are you suggesting he’d fill the same roll as KK is he were on the Canes? (I hope not)

 

[DAChampion]

Are you suggesting he’d fill the same roll as KK is he were on the Canes? (I hope not)

Suzuki would probably be in between where he is on the Habs' and where Kotkaniemi is now on the Hurricanes.

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

You’re looking at things through the wrong lense. With or without Dano we’d be going nowhere and Dano would be wasted here. Much better to let him go and rebuild with younger players.

And younger players having Dvorak and Evans as mentors, great idea, great idea !

I tought Dano sucked in 2021, according to what I've read here, so better let him walk, unless he ask 3m.

After 2 years of success in LA, the narrative changed, Dano is good but not for us. Let Kings have him, improve and have a Cup Contender window again. All this when in Habs territory we suck so much but not quite enough to draft Bedard. But we drafted #1 the wrong year. On top of that, the #1 we had have fans being hard criticism, calling him a bust every week and the same goes for Reinbaker.

If you want to rebuilt propelly, why not trade Suzuki or Caufield or Ghule? Or 3 of them. Isn't the motus operandi of a rebuilt? None of them are true first line stuff anyway. We need players the same level as Crosby, Ovy or McDavid. I mean, Suzuki, Caufield or Ghule are not any better than Dano on a packed team like LA Kings. Kopitar is better than Suzuki, Kempe is better than Caufield and Doughty is better than Ghule. Dano is a perfect fit for Kings. Suzuki I'm not sure he would fit as well as Dano.

 

[Heffyhoof]

I'm not missing the point. I'm saying that pts/60 could not be used to compare players as the denominator is influenced by players performance.

I'm terribly confused by how you wrote this.

Are you suggesting that pts/60 is useless in comparing players because it is influenced by player performance? Would not player performance be the 1st and most important thing in a comparison? Doubly so because pts/60 actually does take some measure of extra variable into account instead of simply pure performance? By what metrics are we allowed to compare players in your view?

 

[japhi]

You're indirectly defending Bergevin. I know it sounds dirty when I put it this way but its the truth.

To be honest i don't care we put too much energy into this.

All i know is that kotka is 23 years old and was a 3rd OA, the door is open for him to become a good center in the NHL and right now he's doing a decent job. At 5 mil he's providing good value to his team and he's got room to improve.

Don't ask me what he did the last 5 games, i don't give, its irrelevant.

He definitely hasn't provided 5MM per year in value to that team. And it's not the past 5 games, he has played countless games in CAR under 13 minutes and averages 14.....on a team with pathetic C depth, he hasn't been able to out compete Staal for instance. They didn't chase KK to find a 14 minute 3rd line C.

CAR messed up big time, Dundon outsmarted himself, Trochek at 5.5 is a significantly better player at both ends of the ice and they could have retained the 1st and 3rd. Sure, KK may be better the last few years of both players deals, and at some point 5Mm may be deal, but it hasn't been so far.

Both Dvorak and KK are middling players, both teams could have used the assets and cap to get a better return. I like that our options open up next year, I frankly will be glad when we have neither player.