Two years later: Revisiting the Kotkaniemi - Dvorak swap

[StCaufield]

Both players are back to what they normally do which is nothing. Since we got a pick we won. Pretty simple. KK had a good start this year but he’s back to reality

 

[GrandBison]

hes only playing 14 mins a night, thats 1.95 pts per 60 mins
Suzuki is at 2.49 pts per 60 mins

Kotka plays 1/4 of Suzuki's PP time. Suzuki scored 50% of his points on the PP and kotka only 2 pts.

Im not trying to defend Kotka nor compare him to Suzuki but it seems to me he's alot more efficient in 5v5 than our current best offensive player

People need to explain me why pts per 60 is a meaningful stat. I mean, if you're not playing, it's not suppose to be an indication that you are a good player.

 

[DAChampion]

Kotkaniemi is just failing to take that next step.

I guess the Habs' win the swap once Dvorak becomes a UFA.

People need to explain me why pts per 60 is a meaningful stat. I mean, if you're not playing, it's not suppose to be an indication that you are a good player.

The poster you replied to specifically meant points/60 at 5on5.

It makes sense to correct for ice time. For example, are you sure that Suzuki would be the first line center in Carolina?

 

[GrandBison]

Kotkaniemi is just failing to take that next step.

I guess the Habs' win the swap once Dvorak becomes a UFA.



The poster you replied to specifically meant points/60 at 5on5.

It makes sense to correct for ice time. For example, are you sure that Suzuki would be the first line center in Carolina?

Except that in real life, if you're having a good game, there are good chances that you'll have more ice time. It's not static, coaches adjust their lineup.

 

[DAChampion]

Except that in real life, if you're having a good game, there are good chances that you'll have more ice time. It's not static, coaches adjust their lineup.

You missed both points.

 

[GrandBison]

You missed both points.

How playing less could be an indication of being an effective player? That's my question.

 

[Ozmodiar]

The poster you replied to specifically meant points/60 at 5on5.

It makes sense to correct for ice time. For example, are you sure that Suzuki would be the first line center in Carolina?

Using points/50 to compare a mediocre player who can’t crack 15min/G to a very good player playing +20min/G - because the team needs him to - might be one of the worst uses of stats out there.

Suzuki plays in all situations and opponents know he’s the guy they need to shut down. A lot more wear and tear on him within a game compared to an under-the-radar guy playing < 15/night.

 

[GrandBison]

Using points/50 to compare a mediocre player who can’t crack 15min/G to a very good player playing +20min/G - because the team needs him to - might be one of the worst uses of stats out there.

Suzuki plays in all situations and opponents know he’s the guy they need to shut down. A lot more wear and tear on him within a game compared to an under-the-radar guy playing < 15/night.

Exactly. Imagine the player who got a secondary assist, then two penalties and is responsible for a bad goal in second period and got benched in the third. Technically, he's going to have a good 5vs5 pts/60 game. But is it a good game?

 

[DAChampion]

Using points/50 to compare a mediocre player who can’t crack 15min/G to a very good player playing +20min/G - because the team needs him to - might be one of the worst uses of stats out there.

Suzuki plays in all situations and opponents know he’s the guy they need to shut down. A lot more wear and tear on him within a game compared to an under-the-radar guy playing < 15/night.

1) Suzuki wouldn't be the first line center on the Hurricanes. It would still be Aho.

2) If I were constructing a roster, I'd value 5on5 play ahead of special teams play.

 

[GrandBison]

1) Suzuki wouldn't be the first line center on the Hurricanes. It would still be Aho.

2) If I were constructing a roster, I'd value 5on5 play ahead of special teams play.

If I were constructing a roster, I'd take Suzuki before KK. These are useless stats.

 

[DAChampion]

If I were constructing a roster, I'd take Suzuki before KK.

Doesn't negate the points made.

 

[Bombshell11]

Need to normalize in apples to apples comparison:

- Suzuki faces tougher opposition line than KK
- overall team offensive depth on Canes > Habs

Ok, take any one you want in the habs lineup and Kotka is producing more at 5vs5 than any one of them with less ice time. Only Suzuki has 1 more pt with more ice time

 

[salbutera]

As many talking heads have repeatedly stated Dvorak is highly regarded by Western Conf teams to fill a 3C role - little doubt IMO he will net a 1st or NHL ready prospect

 

[Bombshell11]

If I were constructing a roster, I'd take Suzuki before KK. These are useless stats.

You missed the point, i was just comparing our current top performer vs Kotka... it wasn't a suzuki vs kotka comparison

 

[GrandBison]

You missed the point, i was just comparing our current top performer vs Kotka... it wasn't a suzuki vs kotka comparison

I'm not missing the point. I'm saying that pts/60 could not be used to compare players as the denominator is influenced by players performance.

 

[Habricot]

Kotkaniemi is just failing to take that next step.

I guess the Habs' win the swap once Dvorak becomes a UFA.



The poster you replied to specifically meant points/60 at 5on5.

It makes sense to correct for ice time. For example, are you sure that Suzuki would be the first line center in Carolina?

I think he would have a lot more points in Carolina...

 

[le_sean]

Ok, take any one you want in the habs lineup and Kotka is producing more at 5vs5 than any one of them with less ice time. Only Suzuki has 1 more pt with more ice time

Great and Mathieu Joseph is 2nd in the entire NHL in 5v5 points per 60. Maybe the Oilers should trade Draisaitl for him since he’s just 89th

 

[Bombshell11]

I'm not missing the point. I'm saying that pts/60 could not be used to compare players as the denominator is influenced by players performance.

 

[Bombshell11]

Great and Mathieu Joseph is 2nd in the entire NHL in 5v5 points per 60. Maybe the Oilers should trade Draisaitl for him since he’s just 89th

Can you imagine a world where you bring a player down because he's having his best offensive season just to make a hyperbolic point that no one is even arguing about?

I think i need to remind you what the point of the thread is:

Kotka was let go on a offer sheet. We're trying to find out if it was a good move? right?

How do we do that? Lets try and see how he's performing: Great.
Now lets try and see how he's performing vs our current players: Eats them for lunch one by one.

So whats the verdict, how do we feel about the move?

Jeez i don't know, it seems like he's doing great for himself, better than our players so far, seems like we're losing this one.

How does le_sean feel about the move? Drasitle rah rah Jospeh rah rah oilers rah rah... thank you le_sean for your insightful analysis

 

[Ozmodiar]

i was just comparing our current top performer [Suzuki] vs Kotka... it wasn't a suzuki vs kotka comparison.

You were just comparing Suzuki vs Kotkaniemi … it wasn’t a Suzuki vs Kotkaniemi comparison. Got it.

 

[Bombshell11]

You were just comparing Suzuki vs Kotkaniemi … it wasn’t a Suzuki vs Kotkaniemi comparison. Got it.

View attachment 788635

I think i stated multiple times it was not but if you can't grasp it, its not my fault

 

[salbutera]

I think i stated multiple times it was not but if you can't grasp it, its not my fault

You can’t just look at KKs stats in a bubble and say he’s better than any Habs player at 5 on 5.

Stats are built off the players he’s surrounded by . Most of KKs points came early in the season w Aho out and having Necas, Svechnikov etc as linemates let alone Slavin, Burns etc on the backend

 

[bcv]

Can you imagine a world where you bring a player down because he's having his best offensive season just to make a hyperbolic point that no one is even arguing about?

I think i need to remind you what the point of the thread is:

Kotka was let go on a offer sheet. We're trying to find out if it was a good move? right?

How do we do that? Lets try and see how he's performing: Great.
Now lets try and see how he's performing vs our current players: Eats them for lunch one by one.

So whats the verdict, how do we feel about the move?

Jeez i don't know, it seems like he's doing great for himself, better than our players so far, seems like we're losing this one.

How does le_sean feel about the move? Drasitle rah rah Jospeh rah rah oilers rah rah... thank you le_sean for your insightful analysis

This would be a great post if KK was actually outperforming any of the Habs' core player.

 

[Frank Drebin]

People have to make the difference between value and actual production. When you are a GM, that's what you deal and trade for. Value. Yes, there will be hits and misses. We f***ed up Kotkaniemi value by letting him go for nothing. And we f***ed up in value by giving so much more for Dvorak because of JK and Danault departure, Bergevin panicked.

That whole debacle was a clusterf*** in value. No matter if JK retires tomorrow and becomes a car salesman.

Speaking of value, what would you give up for Filip Bystedt today?

Of course bergevin panicked. Carolina made a ridiculous offer for a marginal player who bergevin had slotted in as our number 2 center months after his team was 3 wins away from the Stanley cup. No one expected Carolina would make such a dumb move in order to exact revenge on bergevin.

In the end, it worked out for us. It was the final nail in the coffin in the bergevin era, for the gm and the team.

Carolina acquired a goofy player in a goofy manner, and then signed him to a goofy 8 year deal.

 

[Ozmodiar]

I think i stated multiple times it was not but if you can't grasp it, its not my fault

Just try reading what you write before hitting the reply button. lol