Turcotte- time to worry?

[Herby]

I not saying he's a bust per se.

Ofcourse you aren’t, but as usual the second any criticism about anything to do with a young player is brought on this forum the straw man arguments begin, that claim people are calling him a bust (the most overused word on HF). I’ve been saying for a couple years now his upside is an Andrew Cogliano or Andrew Copp type player (assuming he can maintain health). Cogliano has played 14 seasons and 1140 NHL games and that apparently means he is a bust.

 

[SFKingshomer]

Not worried 1 bit

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Dach is a disappointment too, some people will cling to his playoff performance two years ago much like Turcotte’s WJC, but what since is there to be excited about for a 3OA? He has not come close to the playing at a level expected of a #3 overall pick. Just like with Turcotte and the Kings it is hurting the Hawks in the present, and if things don’t improve, in the future. You only get so many chances to pick in the Top 5.

Go look at when the vast majority of high-end forwards in the league started to establish themselves, especially players taken with very high picks, It’s waaaaaaay younger than I think most at this forum realize. I think many are stuck in the dead puck era where players were still “kids” until they were 22-24. Just not really the case anymore.

It's 21-22. The answer is 21-22. It IS the case except for the McDavids/Matthews of the world.

Unless by 'establish themselves' you mean 'play any nhl games at all'

Do I really need to do this yet again? Or can I ask you to show your work this time instead?

 

[kilowatt]

Ofcourse you aren’t, but as usual the second any criticism about anything to do with a young player is brought on this forum the straw man arguments begin, that claim people are calling him a bust (the most overused word on HF). I’ve been saying for a couple years now his upside is an Andrew Cogliano or Andrew Copp type player (assuming he can maintain health). Cogliano has played 14 seasons and 1140 NHL games and that apparently means he is a bust.

Copp has never topped 40 points, Cogliano's career best is 45. Then again, Mike Richards' best with LA was 44 (or 32 prorated to 54 because of the lockout). I think Turcotte's ceiling is about what Richards brought to LA, 20 goals and 40 assists. It's hard to compare Cogliano to Turcotte using junior/college numbers because Cogliano is almost 15 years older than Turcotte, but I think Turcotte has a higher offensive ceiling than Copp.

If Turcotte turns into an effective middle-six center (#2 or #3) or a regular season Justin Williams-type winger, I'll be really happy. If he tops out as a bottom six energy forward, it'll definitely feel a bit like a waste of a pick, especially with some elite top line guys taken behind him.

It probably makes sense to define success too, though. What does success look like for an under-21 rookie? 40 points? Here are all the rookies drafted in 2017 or later who scored 40+ points as a rookie (plus the year they were drafted):

2021-22:

1. Zegras, 61 points, drafted in 2019
2. Raymond, 59, 2020
3. Seider, 50, 2019
4. Lundell, 44, 2020
5. Caufield, 43, 2019
6. Mercer, 42, 2020
7. Jarvis, 40, 2020

2020-21:

1. Jason Robertson, 45, 2017

2019-20:

1. Quinn Hughes, 53, 2018
2. Cale Makar, 50, 2017
3. Nick Suzuki, 41, 2017

2018-19:

1. Elias Pettersson, 66, 2017
2. Brady Tkachuk, 45, 2018
3. Rasmus Dahlin, 44, 2018

2017-18:

1. Nico Hischier, 52, 2017

Okay, maybe 40 points doesn't make sense for the COVID-shortened seasons. Dropping that to 30 points in 2020 and 2021 adds a couple more names to the list — Josh Norris and Yegor Sharangovich — so... I dunno. Since 2017-18, only 30 rookies (drafted in 2017 or later) have scored 30 or more points, and Vilardi is one of them. Was that a successful season from Vilardi? I thought so.

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Anyway, I'm just rambling at this point. I think Turcotte either tops out higher than Copp and Cogliano because he's healthy enough to play, or he doesn't play enough games to be a factor. That's how it feels right now anyway. When healthy, he's a big game player.

 

[lumbergh]

I just don’t care that much about where he was drafted. Will he be a piece of the puzzle on a winning team? The Kings already got Kaliyev and Bjornfot contributing, and Fagemo and Turcotte waiting in the wings next year.

 

[bland]

Given how this particular team churns out forwards past their expected date, with little regard to developing their offensive skills as a primary focus, its no surprise Turcotte is on the slow boil.

Fan expectations are just that. Using what other teams have or haven't done with their prospects isn't indicative of what the Kings are doing, no matter how much it may frustrate us. Turcotte is a special brand of player whose value won't be gauged purely in numbers, and while it may be disappointing to us that he isn't here now - even though it was probably the best course of action - it isn't the evidence of his future results that some seem to be hanging their hats on.

This is LA, we do things differently. Not necessarily better, but lets check in again in a year.

Post automatically merged: May 2, 2022

Given how this particular team churns out forwards past their expected date, with little regard to developing their offensive skills as a primary focus, its no surprise Turcotte is on the slow boil.

Fan expectations are just that. Using what other teams have or haven't done with their prospects isn't indicative of what the Kings are doing, no matter how much it may frustrate us. Turcotte is a special brand of player whose value won't be gauged purely in numbers, and while it may be disappointing to us that he isn't here now - even though it was probably the best course of action - it isn't the evidence of his future results that some seem to be hanging their hats on.

This is LA, we do things differently. Not necessarily better, but lets check in again in a year.

 

[AbsentMojo]

 

[ru4reals]

Yes it might be time to worry. And I'm the biggest Turcotte fan. Just sad.

 

[KingsHockey24]

I'd rather have Lauri Tukonen at this point.

 

[SufferingSelfCreated]

I got to believe at this point, with all the injuries Etc, that his trade value is somewhere around a 3rd or 4th round pick.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I'd rather have Lauri Tukonen at this point.

Or Matt Zultek.

 

[KingsHockey24]

Or Matt Zultek.

You're showing your age with this one.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

Turcotte getting injured is as predictable as the Kings not scoring on the PP.

 

[Herby]

Wow, so he missed weeks with a concussion (if rumors are true) and comes back and is concussed again in his 3rd game back?

Obviously the Kings are going to have to shut this down until the rookie camp (at the earliest) and see how he can handle those scrimmages. This is similar to the sad Deadmarsh story of 20 years ago. I obviously haven’t liked the return on the pick but this is just so awful to have happen to the person. He’s probably another concussion away from having to step away for awhile like Byram.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

I’m at the game. Row 8 on the Eagles defending blueline for periods 1 and 3.
Turcotte was bringing the puck in the Eagles zone with speed.(100 feet from my seat, at the blue line I’m at) Got hit very hard and square. Could not tell if the hit was impact on the head. But think so. Happened fast. He went down hard. Was laying there maybe 5 seconds . Then got up to try to go to the bench . As soon as he was upright and moving slowly, he fell forward down, almost face planted and broke the fall with his hands. F. He then made it to the bench abd was huddled over 3 or 4 minutes and attended too: then went down the tunnel. I about cried. And I almost left.
Sucks all around.

 

[RocketKing]

Turcotte is a blown pick, if we get anything out of that selection it will be nothing short of a miracle.

 

[King'sPawn]

This is one of those "if Turcotte doesn't pan out, I can't blame anyone" situations as it's just horrible luck.

 

[AbsentMojo]

I’m at the game. Row 8 on the Eagles defending blueline for periods 1 and 3.
Turcotte was bringing the puck in the Eagles zone with speed.(100 feet from my seat, at the blue line I’m at) Got hit very hard and square. Could not tell if the hit was impact on the head. But think so. Happened fast. He went down hard. Was laying there maybe 5 seconds . Then got up to try to go to the bench . As soon as he was upright and moving slowly, he fell forward down, almost face planted and broke the fall with his hands. F. He then made it to the bench abd was huddled over 3 or 4 minutes and attended too: then went down the tunnel. I about cried. And I almost left.
Sucks all around.

Damn.. that makes you sick to see that happen to anyone - well except maybe Kassian or Nurse.. but I digress. Poor kid.

 

[kingsboy11]

Alright now I'm starting to get worried.

 

[Telos]

It's tragic if he doesn't stick because anyone that sees him play knows he has the skill to be a regular in the NHL, but if he can't string together a handful of games without an injury he is going to kill himself trying. Makes you wish you put implant Lizotte's motor, resiliency, and durability into Turcotte...

 

[Herby]

This is one of those "if Turcotte doesn't pan out, I can't blame anyone" situations as it's just horrible luck.

It’s obviously very unlucky for the player and the team, but the team wasn’t perfect in the process. Three years later there are clearly better players taken shortly after. That is almost certainly the case, injuries or no injuries.

Also an undersized gritty guy who battled injuries in his 17 and 18 year old seasons maybe should have been told to get bigger and stronger rather than be thrown into the AHL with bigger pros. He looked tiny in the AHL and was expected to be a sandpaper type guy. I think the Kings overreacted to the disappointing D+1 year and made a poor decision that in atleast a small way contributed to all these injuries.

 

[Trash Panda]

Shut him down, let the guy sit for as long as needed, and refuse the urge to rush him in camp.

Turcotte is a f***ing hockey player in every sense of the word, we just need the poor kid to get healthy.

 

[Eagle Fang]

Well Justin Williams had injury issues early in his career. Some of us compared him to a William'ish type of player. I'm reaching for anything here...

 

[Telos]

It’s obviously very unlucky for the player and the team, but the team wasn’t perfect in the process. Three years later there are clearly better players taken shortly after. That is almost certainly the case, injuries or no injuries.

Also an undersized gritty guy who battled injuries in his 17 and 18 year old seasons maybe should have been told to get bigger and stronger rather than be thrown into the AHL with bigger pros. He looked tiny in the AHL and was expected to be a sandpaper type guy. I think the Kings overreacted to the disappointing D+1 year and did even more damage to his development by causing him to get hurt in the AHL in addition to no offensive development.

Meh, Turcotte was the pretty consensus-ranked pick. Sure, there were scouts touting this guy or that guy and Zegras had his following, but the vast majority of everyone thought it was a gift to the Kings that he was there.

Obviously, this is the age-old draft argument of missing the guy who had it between the ears to make it versus the one who didn't, but the missed the best player argument could have been said about Dustin Brown in 2003, but if I did it all over again knowing what I know I'd take Dustin again even though he wasn't the best player.

Turcotte had the skill, speed, leadership, and character. It's hard to say he was a predictably inferior prospect then. Of course, we all still got to wait it out and see. Many players have overcome similar and worse.

 

[AbsentMojo]

It’s obviously very unlucky for the player and the team, but the team wasn’t perfect in the process. Three years later there are clearly better players taken shortly after. That is almost certainly the case, injuries or no injuries.

Also an undersized gritty guy who battled injuries in his 17 and 18 year old seasons maybe should have been told to get bigger and stronger rather than be thrown into the AHL with bigger pros. He looked tiny in the AHL and was expected to be a sandpaper type guy. I think the Kings overreacted to the disappointing D+1 year and made a poor decision that in atleast a small way contributed to all these injuries.

You look at his numbers - he has one season when he put up a lot of points and i believe he was playing with Zegras and Hughes a lot. Look at his numbers on the Reign last 2 seasons - almost identical and unimpressive. If you look at the scouting reports - they all sounded certain he would be a top 6 center with a full set of skills including shooting.. the guy hardly puts up goals at any level. Not sure what they saw.