Proposal: Trouba Mega-Thread Part III

[Kraken Jokes]

The problem with threads like these is that a lot of people seem to regard them as an opportunity to engage in some fantasy where they can try to negotiate with an opposing fan base and "win" a deal.

Since what happens here has no effect on Trouba, the only real question to discuss is what is the likely outcome of all this. As such, going out of your way to create winning deals for your team holds no value, and just aggravates the mood of the thread.

Thank you!

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Their is a limited # of teams that want trouba, that trouba would want to sign with, that can afford troyba today and who can afford to sign him longterm

Those factors will have an effect on his trade value

Its not nhl 2017

 

[kelsier]

I'm quite certain that the Leafs will not be offering any of the bolded and I'm not sure the leafs brass would even add anything to Gardiner...
I think Arizona makes the most sense for a trade partner.

In which case, let the dreamers dream.

Arizona might make sense, but then again we don't know if Chevy would settle for lets say Chychrun (added with other pieces) or does he really actually want immediate fix as they have publicly announced. Of course I suppose any offer (even without the LHD) coming back could go through, provided it's hefty enough.

At the end of the day the ball right now is in the Trouba's corner, while the Jets own the ball park.

 

[Liferleafer]

In which case, let the dreamers dream.

Arizona might make sense, but then again we don't know if Chevy would settle for lets say Chychrun (added with other pieces) or does he really actually want immediate fix as they have publicly announced. Of course I suppose any offer (even without the LHD) coming back could go through, provided it's hefty enough.

At the end of the day the ball right now is in the Trouba's corner, while the Jets own the ball park.

Ya, we spend our nights dreaming about unsigned whiners coming to our team. I tend to agree with Jets fans, i think the only option for Trouba is to sign in WPG. Not because Chevy is playing hardball...but because no GM is going to pay an astronomical price, and why would they? If he signs a bridge deal (or even better a Rielly type deal) then i could see the offers increasing....right now? No chance.

 

[Brock Radunske]

In which case, let the dreamers dream.

Arizona might make sense, but then again we don't know if Chevy would settle for lets say Chychrun (added with other pieces) or does he really actually want immediate fix as they have publicly announced. Of course I suppose any offer (even without the LHD) coming back could go through, provided it's hefty enough.

At the end of the day the ball right now is in the Trouba's corner, while the Jets own the ball park.

How many teams have an expendable young top-4 LHD with potentiallt top pairing upside?

 

[Liferleafer]

How many teams have an expendable young top-4 LHD with potentiallt top pairing upside?

That they want to trade for an unsigned kid demanding a trade?

 

[RangerBoy]

You conversely sound like someone that has zero clue as to who is running the Jets management. Cheveldayoff comes from a farm family. His strength as a manager is his patience, and he won't allow a 22-y/o RFA to dictate his roster decisions. If he felt any pressure, he would have pulled the plug on Trouba this past spring.

The pressure comes this season without Trouba in the line-up. He was in the line-up last season. Look at that division. Best division in the NHL.

The same Jets management who told the media not to worry about Trouba.

It turns out Trouba was being discussed with other teams last season and requested a trade in May.

You guys refused to believe Trouba was ever available until last Saturday when the trade request was made public.

That was funny. You heard and read items about Trouba being available during the spring and summer. You guys always said it wasn't true.

Farm family? What does that even mean?

The Jets are a better team with Trouba or a better team with the assets acquired for Trouba than no Trouba at all.

I can see how well Winnipeg management has run their team. Look at all of the playoff series wins since they returned in 2011-12. They look like the previous highly successful Winnipeg franchise.

 

[CREW99AW]

They are already allowed to talk extension numbers with Trouba, they have since July 1st.

From what has been reported, it does not sound like nhl GMs are backing off attempts to acquire Trouba because of extension concerns.

The extension concerns are coming from message board fans and really sound more like excuses to explain lowball offers. Weren't we reading posts with the same concerns before the Turris and RyJo trades?

 

[Liferleafer]

From what has been reported, it does not sound like nhl GMs are backing off attempts to acquire Trouba because of extension concerns.

The extension concerns are coming from message board fans and really sound more like excuses to explain lowball offers. Weren't we reading posts with the same concerns before the Turris and RyJo trades?

Turris signed a deal before being traded.....RYJO didn't sit out or demand a trade, so there is no comparison.

 

[kelsier]

Ya, we spend our nights dreaming about unsigned whiners coming to our team. I tend to agree with Jets fans, i think the only option for Trouba is to sign in WPG. Not because Chevy is playing hardball...but because no GM is going to pay an astronomical price, and why would they? If he signs a bridge deal (or even better a Rielly type deal) then i could see the offers increasing....right now? No chance.

Alright, the contradiction here is kind of fascinating though, considering there have been numerous Gardiner + offers probably starting even before Trouba asked for a trade.

Also if you have something to back up that proves Trouba is more about the money than wanting to leave the organisation or finding himself in a better position, I'd be happy to read up.

How many teams have an expendable young top-4 LHD with potentiallt top pairing upside?

I'm sure you don't need me to do the math for you.

 

[Liferleafer]

Alright, the contradiction here is kind of fascinating though, considering there have been numerous Gardiner + offers probably starting even before Trouba asked for a trade.

Also if you have something to back up that proves Trouba is more about the money than wanting to leave the organisation or finding himself in a better position, I'd be happy to read up.



I'm sure you don't need me to do the math for you.

A: I didn't say the Leafs (or thier fans) wouldn't be interested in Trouba, what i said was we weren't spending our nights dreaming about it. I can say the interest falls sharply if the ask is Rielly/Marner/Nylander / 1st.

B:I never said Trouba was only about money...i said it would be easier to trade him if he was signed to a reasonable contract.

 

[kelsier]

A: I didn't say the Leafs (or thier fans) wouldn't be interested in Trouba, what i said was we weren't spending our nights dreaming about it. I can say the interest falls sharply if the ask is Rielly/Marner/Nylander / 1st.

B:I never said Trouba was only about money...i said it would be easier to trade him if he was signed to a reasonable contract.

a) Good to hear. One could easily come into wrong conclusion after spending a tiny bit of time in the Trouba trade related topic.

b) Goes without saying, hence didn't see a point bringing it up.

 

[Liferleafer]

a) Good to hear. One could easily come into wrong conclusion after spending a tiny bit of time in the Trouba trade related topic.

b) Goes without saying, hence didn't see a point bringing it up.

In response to B, i brought it up in response to a post that said his lack of contract wasn't a problem in other GMs minds.

 

[gwh]

From what has been reported, it does not sound like nhl GMs are backing off attempts to acquire Trouba because of extension concerns.

If there were no extension concerns, Overhardt wouldn't have been given the opportunity to discuss the extension with trade teams.

However, Trouba is not going anywhere once both parties understand the contract/trade value.

 

[Crazed Fan]

Or just wait a year or 2 and he could be the #1D for Winnipeg, and grow with Scheifele, Laine, Ehlers, Connor, Morrissey, Helle.
Today he's already a #2D for them.
Very few teams in the league can match that.

Reading his agent comments/interviews you get the feeling that Trouba simply doesn't want to be in Winnipeg, it's not about icetime, winning, or which side he plays, they want out.

Exactly right, so if that's the case, Chevy will get to him when he gets to him. When the price is right. A few losing streaks or injuries by a few teams can easily change Troubas value to be even more valuable.
For many teams thinking the Jets should get less for him look at it this way, he was about to be a first pairing d man with the Jets. If he would likely play 1st pairing d on another team, then the return will need to be very high. Chevy can wait. Jets fans can wait.
In fact, many Jets fans have already moved on to watching Morrissey develop, and cheer for those that do love playing for the Jets. anything we get for Trouba will be helpful but does not have to be rushed at all.
Other fans want a 1rhd for cheap, can sense panic in Winnipeg, but there just isn't.

 

[Gardner McKay]

The pressure comes this season without Trouba in the line-up. He was in the line-up last season. Look at that division. Best division in the NHL.

The same Jets management who told the media not to worry about Trouba.

It turns out Trouba was being discussed with other teams last season and requested a trade in May.

You guys refused to believe Trouba was ever available until last Saturday when the trade request was made public.

That was funny. You heard and read items about Trouba being available during the spring and summer. You guys always said it wasn't true.

Farm family? What does that even mean?

The Jets are a better team with Trouba or a better team with the assets acquired for Trouba than no Trouba at all.

I can see how well Winnipeg management has run their team. Look at all of the playoff series wins since they returned in 2011-12. They look like the previous highly successful Winnipeg franchise.

In nearly 9+ years on this site, I have never seen people go so far to defend a GM that has won nothing in 5 years of being with a team.

 

[Tripod]

Exactly right, so if that's the case, Chevy will get to him when he gets to him. When the price is right. A few losing streaks or injuries by a few teams can easily change Troubas value to be even more valuable.
For many teams thinking the Jets should get less for him look at it this way, he was about to be a first pairing d man with the Jets. If he would likely play 1st pairing d on another team, then the return will need to be very high. Chevy can wait. Jets fans can wait.
In fact, many Jets fans have already moved on to watching Morrissey develop, and cheer for those that do love playing for the Jets. anything we get for Trouba will be helpful but does not have to be rushed at all.
Other fans want a 1rhd for cheap, can sense panic in Winnipeg, but there just isn't.

The opposite can be said about Winnipeg too though.

A few losing streaks, injuries to Myers or Buff and the lose of Trouba is even more painful. TODAY, the Jets are a worse team without Trouba in their lineup. Should they trade him cheap? Absolutely not. But personally, I think the Jets end up trading him regardless.

Chevy is hoping to trade him for value AND need...and that is going to be hard to find a match. As stated, how many teams have an extra LHD, with upside, that is young, that they are ok with moving and have the cap space?

Chevy likely ends up picking one or the other....trade Trouba for value....or to fill a need. Getting both in a deal will be hard because that return might not even be out there. If it was being offered, the deal would already be done. He has had 5 months to find that match. No luck so far.

 

[lomiller1]

Personally, I think if a deal is made then it will be to the Jets benefit. That's mostly because I am not all that enamored with Trouba's upside. In my opinion, upside isn't just a case of current ability compared to age. There are significant development steps involved, and one of those is the maturation process, the translation of skill set to the NHL level. Early Johansen is an example of a guy where you could see that there was so much to his game that he hadn't translated to the NHL level yet, so there was a lot of potential there. I don't see that with Trouba, I think he translated his skill set unusually well, which is also a big reason why he became an NHL player so early. Those significant development steps I mentioned have already been taken, so I don't foresee major steps for him going forward. He'll improve on things each year still, but what you see is what you'll get mostly. Terrific PK guy, versatile and strong top 4 D-man who is useful in a variety of situations. But I don't see the same ceiling as many others, and it's very likely he'll get paid for that ceiling.

Over the last 2 years Trouba's underlying offensive numbers are borderline elite:
17th in the NHL in on ice shot generation (rel CF/60)
10th in the NHL in on ice scoring chance generation (rel SCF/60)
16th in the NHL in on ice expected goals (rel xGF/60)

His defensive numbers are middle of the pack but that still makes then top 4, and there is good reason to think he's be top pairing level if he hadn't spent so much time with a very weak D partner. his overall 2-way numbers are easily top pairing with both his rel xGF% and rel SC% being in the top 20 in the NHL. His average time on ice is top (45 in the NHL) pairing in spite of the log jam the Jets have on the right side.

 

[Gump Hasek]

Farm family? What does that even mean?

It means that he comes from patient stock. Farmers plant their crops in the spring and wait patiently to harvest them in the fall. It is an old saying, a saying used in that post to underscore the context of his patience.

The Jets are a better team with Trouba or a better team with the assets acquired for Trouba than no Trouba at all.

I can see how well Winnipeg management has run their team. Look at all of the playoff series wins since they returned in 2011-12.

The balance of your post meanwhile underlines that you have no understanding of how the Jets have been run. They bought a team with zero organizational depth and drafted it. They are now at a point in that cycle where they are so deep that they don't need to bow to the whims of a 22 y/o RFA and can patiently wait him out and operate on their own timeline. Fans of some teams that would apparently like to acquire him clearly find this upsetting; oh well.

 

[howkie]

In nearly 9+ years on this site, I have never seen people go so far to defend a GM that has won nothing in 5 years of being with a team.

Cuz the owners and GM has been crystal clear about their plan aka process. Fans knows it and likes it. It is a slow process and Jets fans know it takes time to building a winner

 

[Psuhockey]

Chevy is under no pressure to move him until Winnipeg starts losing. Then the Trouba situation becomes a huge distraction. Anyone thinking the media won't be bringing him up to everyone associated with the team, players and management alike, after every loss is kidding themselves. This situation isn't similar to Tampa. Drouin wasn't even on the Lightening roster and Tampa was still a good team without him and he was still brought up all the time. The media will make this a circus. That's a hard thing to complete ignore especially when the players are asked about Trouba all the time.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Cuz the owners and GM has been crystal clear about their plan aka process. Fans knows it and likes it. It is a slow process and Jets fans know it takes time to building a winner

Yeah. I was told that about Atlanta as well. As a former season ticket holder I am still waiting for that franchise (Thrashers/Jets) to win a playoff game.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Over the last 2 years Trouba's underlying offensive numbers are borderline elite:
17th in the NHL in on ice shot generation (rel CF/60)
10th in the NHL in on ice scoring chance generation (rel SCF/60)
16th in the NHL in on ice expected goals (rel xGF/60)

His defensive numbers are middle of the pack but that still makes then top 4, and there is good reason to think he's be top pairing level if he hadn't spent so much time with a very weak D partner. his overall 2-way numbers are easily top pairing with both his rel xGF% and rel SC% being in the top 20 in the NHL. His average time on ice is top (45 in the NHL) pairing in spite of the log jam the Jets have on the right side.

The reason I said top 4, which is what I think you objected to, is that I don't like labeling players based on pairings.

I'd also be careful of pointing towards who he is paired with as a big factor when using relative numbers, as many of them already account for this by utilizing simplified WOWY.

Other than that, I thank you for the data collection and presentation. Trouba is indeed very good. I just said that I don't necessarily think we'll see as much further development as people generally expect from a guy that age.

 

[Gump Hasek]

In nearly 9+ years on this site, I have never seen people go so far to defend a GM that has won nothing in 5 years of being with a team.

That is because those fans understand the way the team is being operated. They were told from day one that the franchise would draft and develop its talent. They were aware that the team the owners bought had just a few NHL-level players and absolutely nothing on the farm; in fact, the Thrashers didn't even have a developmental system and farmed their few prospects out to an independent AHL franchise. As such, they understand that it wasn't simply just a case a trading a few players to transform the fortunes of the franchise but rather was a matter of building both an NHL and an AHL franchise from scratch, of building a foundation prior to fancying up the house in other words.

Those fans understand that the Jets are being managed for the long-game. TNSE are running their franchise with a goal to be a perennial contender. During the 5-year period you mentioned they have gutted and replaced the hockey ops of the previous franchise, have built an NHL organization and an AHL arm as well, and have more than tripled their scouting staff.

Here they stand today, as their strategy of patience is soon to be rewarded due patiently building via the draft and by garnering the organizational depth the franchise once sorely lacked:
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/jets-window-opportunity-opening-sooner-later/

 

[Crazed Fan]

The opposite can be said about Winnipeg too though.

A few losing streaks, injuries to Myers or Buff and the lose of Trouba is even more painful. TODAY, the Jets are a worse team without Trouba in their lineup. Should they trade him cheap? Absolutely not. But personally, I think the Jets end up trading him regardless.

Chevy is hoping to trade him for value AND need...and that is going to be hard to find a match. As stated, how many teams have an extra LHD, with upside, that is young, that they are ok with moving and have the cap space?

Chevy likely ends up picking one or the other....trade Trouba for value....or to fill a need. Getting both in a deal will be hard because that return might not even be out there. If it was being offered, the deal would already be done. He has had 5 months to find that match. No luck so far.

You are absolutely right. The Jets without Trouba are worse, but maybe not quite so bad with the way Morrissey has been playing in the preseason. However, those aren't the meaningful games.
We don't know what the season holds. All we know is Trouba doesn't want to play for the Jets. Like many have said, we treat it like LTIR. If the Jets face multiple injuries or have a very poor start the value changes. But its also nice to know we have a very valuable trade piece. I do believe that Chevy has the teams best interests in mind when dealing. I think most of the summer Chevy wanted to see how it played out. He was not going to be strong armed by an RFA and his agent. If it is true that Trouba was only looking for a trade, then I am OK with Chevy working on resigning Scheifele and company instead. Honestly, I think Troubas best suitor (team wise) IS Winnipeg. I think Chevy feels the same way. He still has that as an option to re sign and play. I just hope he wouldn't dog it because he is so unhappy or hope he hasn't burned too many bridges with teammates.
If Trouba feels like he can't hack it in Winnipeg then he will have to wait until the time is right.
Value or need are fine with me.