I'm not confused, I understand 78 points to 96 points(Needed to make playoffs) is a 20%+ improvement. Every team has reasons they didn't make the playoffs last year, injury's, young players, wrong coach, wrong system etc.. The Jets chances of making the playoffs are slim with a happy Trouba or whatever return you get for him. If he sits all year, chances are even more remote.
I think we'll improve in many areas from last years plummet. Our Powerplay should improve with more talented players up front (Connor, Laine) and potentially Morrissey on the back end who moves the puck well. Our PK may or may not improve though without Trouba. Yes we've brought in new special teams coaches, but guys like Lowry and Burmistrov don't have a spot on the teams roster yet and they were a few of our main penalty killers last season along with Andrew Ladd and Bryan Little who was injured for 25 games or so. On the back end, Stuart is still in the lineup until otherwise noted, and he's not very good on the PK, especially without Trouba covering his ass, then you'd have Buff/Myers/Enstrom.
So.. for the PK
Minus: Trouba, Ladd
Questionable: Lowry, Burmistrov, Tanev, Thorburn, Copp
Still in: Little, Wheeler, Stafford, // Buff, Enstrom, Myers, Stuart
Additions: New coaches, Matthias
With more skill up front, we'll hopefully be drawing more penalties rather than taking them. Ladd and Trouba both take the odd dumb penalty, Connor doesn't appear to be a liability here, nor Laine. I think both players make the teams top 9.
Goaltending. Pavelec and Hutch had mediocre seasons last year, whereas the year before they were tag team champions of over-achieving. When one would get beat up and lose his hot streak, the other would tag in and kick butt until he wore out and so on. This year, there won't be any leash for Pavelec or Hutchinson. Pavelec is playing for a contract (elsewhere in the league I hope), and Hutchinson will be trying not to lose his backup job to Hellebuyck before he gets exposed to the expansion at the end of the season. Hellebuyck outperformed both goalies in his 20~ game stint last season and even Comrie has been gathering a bunch of quality experience in the AHL with 46 games last season. This year, the best goalies should start, just like the best skaters should start. We can't afford to be throwing away the best years of guys like Wheeler, Byfuglien, and Little while Enstrom may be slowing down already. The time for the Jets to begin contending starts this year, hopefully with a playoff spot. I'm optimistic myself, but I believe they can take 5th in the Central division and beat out Minnesota and Colorado for a wild card spot.