Speculation: Trouba Contract Discussion Part II

[csk]

Ekblad did 8
Klingberg did 7

Not exactly close comparables

 

[Aavco Cup]

Not exactly close comparables

That wasn't my intention. Those are guys who went longer than 6.

 

[ffh]

cbj and Calgary were both scared of getting offersheeted. cbj said as much Calgary just traded for Hamilton as was afraid the samething boston was afraid of, chiarelli offersheeting him. that's why these 2 got more then what they were worth. everyone else is in a 4-5 million a year 6 year deal range.

 

[robertocarlos]

Maybe with 8 years Jets get a discount to $5.5 million. Otherwise 6x6.

 

[csk]

That wasn't my intention. Those are guys who went longer than 6.

Fair enough

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

Long term, dealing with other RFA's, the Jets would paint themselves in a corner if they paid Trouba 6 million a year. Some of you want to over pay Trouba by more than a million based on feeling or hope and not by actual production in the last 2 years. He's worth more like 4.8 based on his play.
I pray none of you are employed at my bank, investing my money, my future retirement savings would likely be gone.

 

[Unholy goalie]

Long term, dealing with other RFA's, the Jets would paint themselves in a corner if they paid Trouba 6 million a year. Some of you want to over pay Trouba by more than a million based on feeling or hope and not by actual production in the last 2 years. He's worth more like 4.8 based on his play.
I pray none of you are employed at my bank, investing my money, my future retirement savings would likely be gone.

I don't know about this. In looking at his stats over the last few years, especially in the form of HERO charts, along with comparables puts him over 5M AAV for sure. I think, as others have mentioned here, that if we can sign him to a 7-8 year deal at something like 5.75M AAV we'd be saving money down the road. You can graduate the salary if you don't like the idea of paying him over 5M right away: 4.8, 5.2, 5.5, 5.5, 6, 6, 6.5, 6.5 = 5.75 AAV

 

[ps241]

Ekblad did 8
Klingberg did 7

Klingberg's deal is pretty amazing.

 

[SLAYER]

Maybe with 8 years Jets get a discount to $5.5 million. Otherwise 6x6.

Don't think that Chevy would sign a 6x6 deal. I would bet that he lets Trouba sit out a season if it came down to it.

 

[ffh]

I don't know about this. In looking at his stats over the last few years, especially in the form of HERO charts, along with comparables puts him over 5M AAV for sure. I think, as others have mentioned here, that if we can sign him to a 7-8 year deal at something like 5.75M AAV we'd be saving money down the road. You can graduate the salary if you don't like the idea of paying him over 5M right away: 4.8, 5.2, 5.5, 5.5, 6, 6, 6.5, 6.5 = 5.75 AAV

Reilly numbers put trouba to shame thats just a fact. 4.3 or 4.5 on a 6 year deal is not lowballing. Thats fair.

 

[nobody important]

In the last few years, how many RFA's held out through training camp, maybe into the regular season, and ended up getting traded? In other words, does holding out signal that a parting of ways will come sooner than later?

 

[SLAYER]

Reilly numbers put trouba to shame thats just a fact. 4.3 or 4.5 on a 6 year deal is not lowballing. Thats fair.

uuuuuh no. Their numbers are extremely comparable when looking at all 3 years of NHL time. Trouba has slightly better defensive numbers while Rielly has slightly better offensive numbers.

You want to say that Rielly puts Trouba to shame, go nuts, but that is your opinion and not a fact.

I feel that right now Rielly looks a little more attractive based on their most recent seasons, but he's not on another level or anything.

 

[ffh]

uuuuuh no. Their numbers are extremely comparable when looking at all 3 years of NHL time. Trouba has slightly better defensive numbers while Rielly has slightly better offensive numbers.

You want to say that Rielly puts Trouba to shame, go nuts, but that is your opinion and not a fact.

I feel that right now Rielly looks a little more attractive based on their most recent seasons, but he's not on another level or anything.

Isnt that what you get paid for based on what you've done in your most recent seasons. If everybody that has done more are getting paid 4.5 or around that why do people feel paying him over 5 is fair.

 

[Grind]

Isnt that what you get paid for based on what you've done in your most recent seasons. If everybody that has done more are getting paid 4.5 or around that why do people feel paying him over 5 is fair.

Well the main argument is a guy that's had 2/3 very good seasons would generally be considereded more valuable then a guy whos had 1/3.


Especially given the young age. It's not as if one bad season at 22 is more indicative of the future then the two good seasons at 20 and 21.

Let's through out the old example. If I flip a coin and it comes up heads, have the odds increased that it will be heads the next time I flip it?

 

[Grind]

Isnt that what you get paid for based on what you've done in your most recent seasons. If everybody that has done more are getting paid 4.5 or around that why do people feel paying him over 5 is fair.

Because as stated most of the guys that have "done more" have done more in one season. Where as in the other two seasons trouba actually did more.

 

[SLAYER]

Isnt that what you get paid for based on what you've done in your most recent seasons. If everybody that has done more are getting paid 4.5 or around that why do people feel paying him over 5 is fair.

It's one of the determining factors, but not the only thing. Long-term contracts are also based on potential, which requires you to evaluate a player's entire body of work. It would be incredibly short-sighted to hand out those contracts based on 1 season of play. Both Trouba and Rielly have played 3 NHL seasons, you should evaluate their entire body of work.

Also, I wouldn't be sad if we locked Trouba up long-term (talking > 6 years) at around 5.5... the kid is worth it. So if he gets paid a little more than Reilly, and the contract is still a good deal for the Jets, does it really matter?

 

[sully1410]

Isnt that what you get paid for based on what you've done in your most recent seasons. If everybody that has done more are getting paid 4.5 or around that why do people feel paying him over 5 is fair.

You are also paying for potential and what you project him to be a few years down the road.

 

[csk]

Maybe with 8 years Jets get a discount to $5.5 million. Otherwise 6x6.

Adding UFA years would increase the AAV, because those years cost more

 

[ffh]

You are also paying for potential and what you project him to be a few years down the road.

Reilly faulk klingberg jossi maata larsson krug ellis all have potential too. Yet they all signed to around 4.5

Except reilly who got 5. Why over 5 for trouba.

 

[portamoral]

Trouba deserves the exact same deal Reilly got. Maybe jones money top end for 8 years.

The deal Hamilton got is laughable

 

[robertocarlos]

Adding UFA years would increase the AAV, because those years cost more

My mistake. I was just thinking about the largest pot of money, as in a bird in hand.

 

[Aavco Cup]

 

[Whileee]

Long term, dealing with other RFA's, the Jets would paint themselves in a corner if they paid Trouba 6 million a year. Some of you want to over pay Trouba by more than a million based on feeling or hope and not by actual production in the last 2 years. He's worth more like 4.8 based on his play.
I pray none of you are employed at my bank, investing my money, my future retirement savings would likely be gone.

In all ways other than point production Trouba has been better than Rielly. Why would you think he is worth less than Rielly?

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

In all ways other than point production Trouba has been better than Rielly. Why would you think he is worth less than Rielly?

In 2014 and 2015 Reilly was more defensively sound than Trouba. It was only in the last year Trouba has passed Reilly defensively.

I'd honestly at this point call it a wash between the 2 players. One year of better defensive play does not make Trouba 1 million dollars better than Reilly. That would be insane.

A contract matching Reilly's 5x5 would be reasonable and fair, but Trouba hasn't earned the 5.25-6 million over 6 years some are suggesting.

 

[Unholy goalie]

Reilly numbers put trouba to shame thats just a fact. 4.3 or 4.5 on a 6 year deal is not lowballing. Thats fair.

I'm not sure I agree with that. Is there something you're seeing that I'm not? They look pretty on par to me.

Reilly faulk klingberg jossi maata larsson krug ellis all have potential too. Yet they all signed to around 4.5

Except reilly who got 5. Why over 5 for trouba.

Part of the argument is that we don't know how much his usage affected his stats. There are some good estimates, and there was an article floating around about the Stuart effect, that would project Trouba to be on par or slightly better than Rielly. Also, are you aware that on top of Rielly's 5M that he makes another 2M in signing bonuses (two years in a row, and again in the last year of his contract)? Klingberg's was a great deal but he signed in April of 2015. Maatta's deal is also great, but he also signed mid-season and he's a young D on a cup winning team. Josi (assuming this is who you meant) signed in 2013, and he's 26 now.. not sure why he's on your list. There are contextual factors to all of these, but that doesn't take away from Trouba's value.