Speculation: Trouba Contract Discussion Part II
- Thread starter Romang67
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jiboy
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- May 2, 2007
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Subban did this as a rfa, signed a bridge deal of 2 years. Afterwards signed a 8x9 contract just before hitting arbitration. Ended up being traded just before nmc kicked in.
I'm not sure I agree with that. Is there something you're seeing that I'm not? They look pretty on par to me.
Part of the argument is that we don't know how much his usage affected his stats. There are some good estimates, and there was an article floating around about the Stuart effect, that would project Trouba to be on par or slightly better than Rielly. Also, are you aware that on top of Rielly's 5M that he makes another 2M in signing bonuses (two years in a row, and again in the last year of his contract)? Klingberg's was a great deal but he signed in April of 2015. Maatta's deal is also great, but he also signed mid-season and he's a young D on a cup winning team. Josi (assuming this is who you meant) signed in 2013, and he's 26 now.. not sure why he's on your list. There are contextual factors to all of these, but that doesn't take away from Trouba's value.
Maatta also had significant injury concerns related to concussions, I believe. Klingberg was a steal, but signed after only one NHL season, so might have been a bit more of a risk.
Trouba's point production is certainly an issue of usage. His larger size and physicality plays a bit of a role in value, even if it is usually overrated.
aside from 2 players who were thought to possibly be offersheeted no one other than ekblad and maybe doughty got more then 5 off of an elc. I'm thinking its closer to 4.5 either way I'm hoping it gets done this week.
At top end, I would still give him $4.5 mill/yr for his RFA years and $7 mill/yr for his UFA yrs. Ideally, 7 years and $39 million. Cap hit of $5.57 mill. That's my ceiling. A reasonable overpay, imo.
A deal where he gets $6 mill for his UFA years would be closer to where this should be, $30 mill over 6 years or $5.0 mill cap hit.
Think this gets done before start of the season.
A deal where he gets $6 mill for his UFA years would be closer to where this should be, $30 mill over 6 years or $5.0 mill cap hit.
Think this gets done before start of the season.
- Jun 10, 2014
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Comparables don't need to be an almost perfect match to be useful. They can say 'player A got 6x5 mil. Our player is a little better or our player is not quite as good and adjust accordingly. They can also say that there is quite a gap and make that adjustment. They need to play the same position and they need to be in similar contract circumstances. Beyond that can be adjusted for.
True. But those adjustments are more places for the GM and agent to disagree
Unholy goalie
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- Jul 11, 2011
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Good points.
I'm just not sure the examples you keep bringing up really apply to Trouba. It is hard to take one aspect/fact of a player's contract and generalise to all other players. When we talk about comparables, there are many factors that we try to consider all together in order to come up with a good estimate. This includes age/experience/stats/health/cap/position among others. You can't cherry-pick one or even two of these in order to come up with a "comparable".
It seems to be that with all the perspectives/knowledge we've got around here weighing in on the issue, a long-term deal (6-8 years) with a graduated salary around 5.5AAV seems to be the best fit. But.. we still have time to explore the details I guess..
scelaton
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- Jul 5, 2012
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I agree that his value is closer to 4.5-4.75 using many of the comparables you have cited, Rielly being the most obvious. Very, very few outside this board would put Trouba ahead of Rielly.
In the end, I believe he will sign a bit higher, in the following range, and the bolded is my hope.
6 years-4.85
7 years-5.25
8 years-5.65
I doubt he holds out much longer, but if he did it would not impact our right side very much, with Buff and Myers able to log 50 min/game.
Not worried in the least.
- Jun 10, 2014
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We could speculate from those words that Chevy is trying for the longest term he can get Overhardt to agree to. That can only be 6 years + as 5, 4, 3 don't make any sense. We could speculate further that Overhardt is looking for a bridge deal as the best way to end up with the most money in the end. Regardless of those speculations it comes down to money.
I'm pretty sure that Chevy would be all over 6 years, 20 mil but Overhardt wouldn't consider that. Overhardt would not be able to sign fast enough if it was 8 years, 80 mil but Chevy certainly would not offer that. There is a number somewhere between those extremes for each side but if those 2 numbers are very different we will see a 2 year bridge deal signed.
- Jun 10, 2014
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Krug is a poor comparison. He signed two 1 year contracts after his ELC. He is on his 4th contract. If we add those two 1 year deals to his current 4 year deal and take a 6 year avg. we are closer to comparable. That = 4.3 AAV but even that doesn't compare directly. Krug had to accept the risk of those two 1 year deals to get there.
Rather than debating the finer points I would rather just leave him out of the conversation.
- Jun 10, 2014
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In the (unlikely) event that he holds out into the regular season the situation might allow Morrissey to finally gain a foothold. That is (almost) enough to make me hope he does hold out for a while.
Edit: Like those numbers BTW. A little less than Rielly for the same term, a little more for a little more term. Perfect.
Hobby Bull
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- May 21, 2013
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Hobby Bull
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That absolutely fails to take into account that he's a restricted free agent. Barring an offer sheet from another club, that is absolutely out of the question.
Hammer Slammer
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