Value of: Trevor Zegras this offseason

[TommyDangles]

You are the one saying that this is all a 23 year old 60-65 point player is worth. Burden of proof is on you. If so many 23 year old 60 point players get traded you should easily be able to provide comparables. You can’t. My position is that he shouldn’t be traded unless it’s for an upgrade, or preferably not at all. 17th overall is indisputably not an upgrade. Players this age don’t get traded except for those reasons, because it’s too early to say they’ve topped out, and there’s zero point to weakening your team for an iffy draft pick.

Debrincat put up those 41 goals next to Kane putting up 91 points. Zegras has never had that kind of talent to play off of. Without that talent, he looks a lot like Zegras.

Drysdale was not traded for a magic bean. A mid 1st is a magic bean, as was the 2nd included with Drysdale. Gauthier was a recent 5th overall pick who performed well as a freshman then led the NCAA in goals as a sophomore, had 12P in 7G at the WJC being named best forward of the tournament, and was a Hobey Baker finalist. Is he a sure thing? No. Was Drysdale able to stay on the ice? No. Do we have several players similar to Drysdale? Yes. Could Drysdale ultimately be the better player? Absolutely. Will that 17th overall likely be worse than Zegras, Drysdale, and Gauthier? That’s a pretty safe bet.

If all it takes for a 23 (not 24/1/2, not 26, not forcing their way out of town) 60-65 point player is a mid 1st, or another player and a pick, you should be able to find them. That’s your thesis, it’s on you to prove, not on me to disprove. Finding one comp that has question marks doesn’t cut it, the Ducks aren’t tanking right now.

I mean if you want to ignore examples you can do whatever you want. Just like Hawks/Wild fans ignored all the examples of recent trades. Fans ignore it because it hurts the narrative that they are getting back a kings ransom or a better player. You even had Laine for PLD. But his name is Patrick and not Trevor so I guess it's not a good example for you. They were also 22. So can't use that example. Too much a difference between 22 and 23 years old.

Cutter never played in an NHL game when he got traded. Full stop. He's a magic bean. You could talk up any prospect available with the 17th pick.

"If all it takes for a 23 (not 24/1/2, not 26, not forcing their way out of town) 60-65 point player is a mid 1st, or another player and a pick, you should be able to find them."

Or a guy coming off an on pace for 40 point season making 5.75M & why teams might be hesitant to even trade a pick in the teens for him. That's reality. I do believe Verbeek will move on quickly from him though. That's my position. Doesn't fit with the tough two way team he's interested in building. Same with Drysdale. Guys who aren't tough to play against.

 

[dracom]

I mean if you want to ignore examples you can do whatever you want. Just like Hawks/Wild fans ignored all the examples of recent trades. Fans ignore it because it hurts the narrative that they are getting back a kings ransom or a better player. You even had Laine for PLD. But his name is Patrick and not Trevor so I guess it's not a good example for you. They were also 22. So can't use that example. Too much a difference between 22 and 23 years old.

Cutter never played in an NHL game when he got traded. Full stop. He's a magic bean. You could talk up any prospect available with the 17th pick.

"If all it takes for a 23 (not 24/1/2, not 26, not forcing their way out of town) 60-65 point player is a mid 1st, or another player and a pick, you should be able to find them."

Or a guy coming off an on pace for 40 point season making 5.75M & why teams might be hesitant to even trade a pick in the teens for him. That's reality. I do believe Verbeek will move on quickly from him though. That's my position. Doesn't fit with the tough two way team he's interested in building. Same with Drysdale. Guys who aren't tough to play against.

If Zegras isn’t the type of player Verbeek wants, why did he bother to re-sign him in the first place? Why not just trade him last offseason? Why did he trade Lindholm instead of keeping him and move fowler instead if he’s only interested in building a tough two-way team?

how does trading a young top 6 player for a mystery pick that won’t be nhl ready for 2-5 years help create a tough two-way roster right now? Just accept you made a bad offer and move on.

 

[DavidBL]

You used Cat's stats AFTER he got traded to compare to Zegras stats from 2 years ago and just left out last season. Just to say context matters lmao.

Do you think teams will just ignore this season when it comes to Zegras value? I still consider him a 60ish point winger value wise, but teams will obviously not just ignore what happened this last season.

Plenty of Hawks fans thought he'd return multiple 1sts + high end prospects. People used Fiala as a comp and Hawks fans said it wasn't comparable. All Hawks fans even said they were not trading him and were going to build around him.

Again I've asked what 60 point wingers have gotten much more than the 17th overall pick and I haven't got any answers.

Young players do get traded & it's not for significant upgrades. Either a 1st and a prospect or a swap for a similar young player.

You just traded Drysdale for a magic bean.

Im sorry but Kirby Dach got 13th and 66th with a career high of like 26 pts when he was traded. At the same pt in their careers Zegras already had a 60 pt season. 17th ain't cutting it.

 

[Dead Coyote]

Apologies to Ducks fans for the absolutely wild shit takes in this thread. People are truly delusional when a player has "perceived" attitude issues and isn't the perfect white bread Connor McConnor on and off the ice. Zegras's issues are so blown up here you'd think he was public enemy #1 and not a solid hockey player with great potential.

I'm not as high on Zegras as a lot of Ducks fans rightfully are, but there's so much misinformation, braindead takes, context being ignored, stat watchers and just people who don't know anything and don't even watch him play in this thread, it's insane. It reminds me of the Crouse threads we Arizona fans had for years and still get where people call him like a "decent 4th line forward" and offer spare parts for him.

My condolences Ducks fans, I hope next year he comes back healthy and finally puts it all together like he showed flashes of this year and then signs long term with a NTC so you guys can stop suffering through this bullshit.

 

[Ducks DVM]

I mean if you want to ignore examples you can do whatever you want. Just like Hawks/Wild fans ignored all the examples of recent trades. Fans ignore it because it hurts the narrative that they are getting back a kings ransom or a better player. You even had Laine for PLD. But his name is Patrick and not Trevor so I guess it's not a good example for you. They were also 22. So can't use that example. Too much a difference between 22 and 23 years old.

Cutter never played in an NHL game when he got traded. Full stop. He's a magic bean. You could talk up any prospect available with the 17th pick.

"If all it takes for a 23 (not 24/1/2, not 26, not forcing their way out of town) 60-65 point player is a mid 1st, or another player and a pick, you should be able to find them."

Or a guy coming off an on pace for 40 point season making 5.75M & why teams might be hesitant to even trade a pick in the teens for him. That's reality. I do believe Verbeek will move on quickly from him though. That's my position. Doesn't fit with the tough two way team he's interested in building. Same with Drysdale. Guys who aren't tough to play against.

I keep asking you for examples of a 23 year old 60 point scorer being traded for only a mid-round 1st. You continue to say I’m ignoring all the examples of it, but cannot provide any of them. PLD for Laine and Roslovic is making my case, not yours, ignoring the fact that PLD very publicly forced his way out of Columbus.

So, Bedard was magic bean, is your argument? Hmm. Gauthier is ranked as a top 5 drafted prospect. The 17th overall pick this year will absolutely not be that this year, if ever. Apple vs orange beans. Draft picks are blind bag beans, 15 other teams will affect what that pick is. A 20 year old D+2 prospect is much more predictable.

Again, if teams feel like Zegras is likely to have multiple serious injuries every year, then you’re correct. No serious person assumes that, so it’s silly to bring it up.

For the last time, if you cannot bring up examples of a player of Zegras’ ilk being traded for a mid-1st or less, It’ll just confirm that you’re just arguing for the sake of arguing, and know your thesis doesn’t hold water. I’m out.

 

[Baksfamous112]

I've seen exactly zero of his NHL games. And yes, he has the potential to be a #1D but so do Levshunov, Dickinson, or Silayev. But until they are in the NHL we just won't know. I think it is pretty safe to look at him as a 2nd pairing guy but anything more than that is optimism w/o facts. In fact, stacked up against the D in the 2022 and 2024 drafts I don't think he is in the top 5-6.

Unlike others, I'm not going to criticize either player. They both should have long careers in the NHL. I do feel that from a fairness perspective, Zegras for Reinbacher is a decent deal which slightly favors Montreal simply b/c Zegras has proven he can play in the league at a high level and Reinbacher hasn't.

…. Sure. Anyway, I’m not arguing against a Reinbacher for Zegras. I think the value is fair. I just don’t think Montreal would want to do that, they would rather give up 5OA instead of Reinbacher simply because he’s NHL ready and whoever is there at 5 isn’t going to be for another year or two.

you were asking where the trash offers for zegras been? well here you go.

Okay so you found one in 28’pages. Congrats.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

I think there's a good reason why we really just don't see these deals early in the draft anymore. Anaheim has a strong chance of landing their #2 ranked player at #3, and it's most likely they are excited about that. The Ducks already have a whack of picks and should just step up and draft their guy. They have the Oilers first, their own plus Boston's second, and a lot of prospect depth already. Anything but taking the best prospect available, is probably overthinking.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Context matters, except when it comes to Zegras?

Zegras was on pace for 39 points this season. You have him as 61/65 points.

Cat was 24 and 6 months. His production without Kane was AFTER he got traded. No clue how that's relevant. He's a very good example.

Um everyone’s given you the context on zegras last season, you just want to ignore it

/shrug

If you think the 17th gets it done then you’d be better off just saying you don’t think zegras will be moved, instead of parading around with dumb takes.

Nothing reported says that Anaheim is actively trying to move him just listening… maybe PV is curious about his value, maybe PV is curious to see if someone will overapay for him…. We literally saw a center from his draft go for a 13th overall + 3rd after doing literally nothing in his nhl career.

Leonard is the only piece that makes sense from Washington, you might not like it but that’s what it would take. Leonard is a lesser piece than gauthier, zegras is a better piece than drysdale

 

[Habs Halifax]

Apologies to Ducks fans for the absolutely wild shit takes in this thread. People are truly delusional when a player has "perceived" attitude issues and isn't the perfect white bread Connor McConnor on and off the ice. Zegras's issues are so blown up here you'd think he was public enemy #1 and not a solid hockey player with great potential.

I'm not as high on Zegras as a lot of Ducks fans rightfully are, but there's so much misinformation, braindead takes, context being ignored, stat watchers and just people who don't know anything and don't even watch him play in this thread, it's insane. It reminds me of the Crouse threads we Arizona fans had for years and still get where people call him like a "decent 4th line forward" and offer spare parts for him.

My condolences Ducks fans, I hope next year he comes back healthy and finally puts it all together like he showed flashes of this year and then signs long term with a NTC so you guys can stop suffering through this bullshit.

What's happening is Zegras is not trending as well today, as he was before last season and some fans want to buy low. Ducks fans still hold Zegras with 60+ points value and want his high end value. I can see it from both sides. In the future, Zegras could break out to 60-80+ range or he could stall. None of us know the answers to this. Not even Zegras.

 

[Gliff]

This is getting so old.

 

[Gliff]

I think there's a good reason why we really just don't see these deals early in the draft anymore. Anaheim has a strong chance of landing their #2 ranked player at #3, and it's most likely they are excited about that. The Ducks already have a whack of picks and should just step up and draft their guy. They have the Oilers first, their own plus Boston's second, and a lot of prospect depth already. Anything but taking the best prospect available, is probably overthinking.

Ya this. Value is fine and I think most Ducks fans would be fine with it but the odds are the Ducks would rather guarantee they take their guy.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

What's happening is Zegras is not trending as well today, as he was before last season and some fans want to buy low. Ducks fans still hold Zegras with 60+ points value and want his high end value. I can see it from both sides. In the future, Zegras could break out to 60-80+ range or he could stall. None of us know the answers to this. Not even Zegras.

I mean in his health my stretch of the season he looked fine, unfortunately in hockey injuries happen.

Teams will gamble on a young center with upside…. The question is how much will they gamble and how high is pvs ask… all we know really is Montreal has been interested and has been for some time

And it sounds like Anaheim asked for Reinbacher, guhle 5 with +

 

[FiveTacos]

I do believe Verbeek will move on quickly from him though. That's my position. Doesn't fit with the tough two way team he's interested in building. Same with Drysdale. Guys who aren't tough to play against.

So does that mean he's also going to dump Terry for cheap? And Zellweger? Those guys aren't big and tough either.

Even if you prefer a certain type of style, no team can have 18 skaters who perfectly fit the profile. And any really good team has at least a few good players who bring a little bit different element.

What's happening is Zegras is not trending as well today, as he was before last season and some fans want to buy low.

Drysdale was arguably trending worse by virtue of missing another 20-some games on top of the nearly full season missed the year before. At least Zegras actually looked like his old self (if not slightly improved) when he was briefly healthy at the end of the year. There's no reason he should be worth less than JD was, unless you believe annual injuries are his future.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

My NJ deal to reunite best buddies in Jack and Trevor

To NJ: Zegras, Pick 32
To ANA: Pick 10, Seamus Casey

It gives Anaheim a top 10 pick and a top RHD prospect

 

[anezthes]

To NJ: Zegras, Pick 32
To ANA: Pick 10, Seamus Casey

No.

 

[anezthes]

In the future, Zegras could break out to 60-80+ range or he could stall.

Z "breaks out" and hits 60+ points for the 3rd time in his career?

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

My NJ deal to reunite best buddies in Jack and Trevor

To NJ: Zegras, Pick 32
To ANA: Pick 10, Seamus Casey

It gives Anaheim a top 10 pick and a top RHD prospect

I actually think this is a pretty good offer , but I can’t see PV wanting Casey with zellweger already here(and prob wants to aim at 1 of those big rhd in late 1st this upcoming draft)

Holtz would prob make more sense, but I think pv is going to use those late 1st + 2nd to be aggressive in getting 1 of elick / Emery etc

 

[LuGBuG]

What's happening is Zegras is not trending as well today, as he was before last season and some fans want to buy low. Ducks fans still hold Zegras with 60+ points value and want his high end value. I can see it from both sides. In the future, Zegras could break out to 60-80+ range or he could stall. None of us know the answers to this. Not even Zegras.

Zegras could break out to do that thing he’s already done twice.

 

[FiveTacos]

Zegras could break out to do that thing he’s already done twice.

It's also not as if he's barely cracked 60. 65 is his best, on a horrific team with a terrible PP ... with half decent PP teammates could he have gotten 5 more points over a season? With even 10% better team possession would he have gotten a few more points as well?

Honestly, 60+ on the anemic teams he got them on is pretty good.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Crappo Kakkor for Zegrass, one for one?

 

[Gliff]

Z "breaks out" and hits 60+ points for the 3rd time in his career?

You will be happy to hear he has done it twice in his 3 NHL seasons!

 

[Arthuros]

You will be happy to hear he has done it twice in his 3 NHL seasons!

So you're telling me he's only done it twice and hasn't done it since?

What a downward trajectory.

 

[HabsAddict]

Is Z becoming the new Dubois on HF?

Part of it is because Habs have a huge fanbase so anytime it involves the Habs, it's going to use up a lot of cyber trees.

Verbeek is following the Dubois playbook without the pressure. Someone comes along and offers him a silly deal, he'll take it and run. On the other hand, NOBODY in hockey has missed the DD...aka....Duboid Debacle.

Right now, Z has a lower value and question marks that will keep most GMs too worried to make a huge deal for him. So just keep him. But also be warned that another 40 point season and his value degrades substantially.

The same situation with Laffy and Dubois last year. A year later, Dubois is untradeable ice grazer and Laffy value skyrockets.

Who is Z in a year?

 

[tomd]

Is Z becoming the new Dubois on HF?

Part of it is because Habs have a huge fanbase so anytime it involves the Habs, it's going to use up a lot of cyber trees.

Verbeek is following the Dubois playbook without the pressure. Someone comes along and offers him a silly deal, he'll take it and run. On the other hand, NOBODY in hockey has missed the DD...aka....Duboid Debacle.

Right now, Z has a lower value and question marks that will keep most GMs too worried to make a huge deal for him. So just keep him. But also be warned that another 40 point season and his value degrades substantially.

The same situation with Laffy and Dubois last year. A year later, Dubois is untradeable ice grazer and Laffy value skyrockets.

Who is Z in a year?

As a Habs fan the question you should be asking is why your GM keeps approaching the Ducks about Zegras. The interest is obviously more than just passing.

 

[FiveTacos]

Right now, Z has a lower value and question marks that will keep most GMs too worried to make a huge deal for him. So just keep him. But also be warned that another 40 point season and his value degrades substantially.

If it happens because he's playing hurt again, the question will be about his durability, which is fair. But anyone can have a single injury year, any reason to think his LBI and broken ankle are chronic issues?