TommyDangles
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17th overall is trash? DeBrincat got 7th overall and he was much better than Zegras.
Value of: Trevor Zegras this offseason
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Yes. 17oa is a trash offer for Zegras. We can move on.
What pick was used to draft the player the Ducks traded for in that Drysdale trade?
That one guy, "where are you seeing this????"
Um.
Then keep it! Keep super duper 17th overall!
17th overall is about right but would caps be interesting in Zegras? Ducks would be selling at a low because of injury and caps hoping he bounces back?
dracom
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TommyDangles
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Did they trade a DY+1 prospect who refused to sign with the team or the 5th pick?
So what do you think 60ish point wingers get back in trades?
dracom
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more than the 17th ova pick. top 6 forward/top 4 D at minimum then add from there. ducks dont need a mid 1st round pick that more than likely never reaches the level Zegras is already at, if they ever make the nhl.
if a team could get a 60+ point, 23 year old forward for that cheap it would have happened already.
TommyDangles
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Zegras hit 60 points being a 1C getting top minutes.
He's not getting that opportunity anymore. Better players than him on the roster now. He's likely a 2nd line winger. If he hits 60-70 points he'd still get around the same value. We've seen what RFA wingers around his age get back in trade. Right around the 17th overall in value.
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sowcufucakky
At his age? They don’t, because they rarely get traded. When they do, it’s for more than 17th overall.
TommyDangles
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A 60 point winger gets more than the 17th overall pick? When did that happen?
Cat as a 40+ goal winger got 7th + 39th
Fiala as a 80+ point winger got 19th + Faber
Reinhart as a 60+ point winger got 28th + Levi
Cat was 24 and got the 7th + 39th as a 40+ goal winger.
Cat was much better than Zegras.
To be fair, what we know now, I’d rather Fabre than most pieces that have been offered here.
Sometimes I wonder if the GM's calling Verbeek about Zegras react like their fans when Verbeek turns them down.
"What do you mean you want more than the 17th overall pick?!?!"
"Yeah, but... he's not a Pat Verbeek kind of player, right?"
"He only had 15 points this season. Those are fourth line numbers so that must be what he's worth."
"He's not the kind of player you win with on a competitive team."
On the one hand I'd find it hilarious, and on the other I'd feel bad that Pat has to listen to what we listen to every day from these people.
"What do you mean you want more than the 17th overall pick?!?!"
"Yeah, but... he's not a Pat Verbeek kind of player, right?"
"He only had 15 points this season. Those are fourth line numbers so that must be what he's worth."
"He's not the kind of player you win with on a competitive team."
On the one hand I'd find it hilarious, and on the other I'd feel bad that Pat has to listen to what we listen to every day from these people.
Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
Context matters
Debrincat with Kane has much better numbers. Debrincat production without Kane looks pretty similar to Zegras 67/66 vs 61/65.
Fiala was in his 9th season post draft and a year from UFA. Not a comparable.
Reinhart was 1 year from UFA and informed Buffalo he wanted out. Not a comparable.
dracom
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Debrincat is more of a sniper while Zegras is a playmaker so of course he would put up more goals but Debcincat did only have 2 full seasons with more points than Zegras. Debrincat was also able to play on a better team than Zegras has. otherwise his points are similar to what Zegras has put up when healthy.
Fiala only had that one season where he put up more points than Zegras, he was older and a year away from being a UFA.
Reinhart was traded for a conditional pick that later ended up being the 28th who only had one season where he scored more than Zegras. was also a year from being a UFA
Ducks aren't looking to tear things down and rebuild, Zegras is younger then the other players, and more team control why would we trade Zegras for a mid 1st round pick that wont make the roster for 2-3 years and even longer before making an impact?
trading a former 9th overall pick, who has done nothing but excel and exceed expectations; who is 4th in points for his draft class (behind Cozen who has 77 more games played but only 12 more points, and boldy who has 17 more points and Hughes), for the 17th overall pick is just stupid.
TommyDangles
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Context matters, except when it comes to Zegras?
Zegras was on pace for 39 points this season. You have him as 61/65 points.
Cat was 24 and 6 months. His production without Kane was AFTER he got traded. No clue how that's relevant. He's a very good example.
TommyDangles
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Right. Like Ducks fans saying Drysdale would not be traded just for Verbeek to trade him. I'm sure you guys know everything.
Just looked back at old trade threads on Drysdale just to see the same posters saying the same things. Looks like history is repeating itself.
Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
Core injury, then broken leg. Produced 5P in 8 games coming back from the core injury, then 8P in 11G after coming back from the broken ankle. Yes. Context matters.
Debrincat never scored over 70 points after leaving Chicago. 66 in Ottawa, 67 in Detroit. No idea what you’re talking about. Zegras turned 23 in March. That’s 23 and 3 months. 15 months is significant at that age. But mainly, Debrincat was not significantly more productive than Zegras after leaving Chicago.
TommyDangles
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So why ignore this season when nitpicking other examples?
How is what happens AFTER a trade relevant to their value BEFORE the trade? That makes no sense.
Cat had 40+ goals. That is significantly more productive lmao.
Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
Because player diminish their production trying to play through a core injury, and looking at total points when he missed 51 games due to those injuries is a foolish way to try to predict his production going forward, unless you expect him to miss 51 games every season. He looked like himself at the end of the year, that’s the reasonable expectation going forward.
Plenty of people thought Debrincat was a product of the team he was on, and that there was a very good chance he wasn’t a reliable 40 goal scorer. Time has proven that to be correct.
Regardless, this entire quixotic evaluation boils down to having 1 comp, that’s actually not a great comp, and ignores that Chicago was burning it to below the foundations to make sure they were bad enough to get Bedard. That’s it. 1 comp. Why do you think you can’t easily find more?
Answer -because players like this don’t get traded at this age, unless it’s to significantly upgrade. They aren’t traded for magic beans that are statistically unlikely to match their production, and take 3-5 years to do so, and that’s what you’re offering.
KevinRedkey
12/18/23 and beyond!
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It may be as low as it's ever been, but it could also be as high as it'll ever be. That's how it works out sometimes.
Note:
I'm not suggesting it either way. I'm just pointing out both statements can be factual, and one is often overlooked by those who are optimistic.
TommyDangles
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You used Cat's stats AFTER he got traded to compare to Zegras stats from 2 years ago and just left out last season. Just to say context matters lmao.
Do you think teams will just ignore this season when it comes to Zegras value? I still consider him a 60ish point winger value wise, but teams will obviously not just ignore what happened this last season.
Plenty of Hawks fans thought he'd return multiple 1sts + high end prospects. People used Fiala as a comp and Hawks fans said it wasn't comparable. All Hawks fans even said they were not trading him and were going to build around him.
Again I've asked what 60 point wingers have gotten much more than the 17th overall pick and I haven't got any answers.
Young players do get traded & it's not for significant upgrades. Either a 1st and a prospect or a swap for a similar young player.
You just traded Drysdale for a magic bean.
Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
You are the one saying that this is all a 23 year old 60-65 point player is worth. Burden of proof is on you. If so many 23 year old 60 point players get traded you should easily be able to provide comparables. You can’t. My position is that he shouldn’t be traded unless it’s for an upgrade, or preferably not at all. 17th overall is indisputably not an upgrade. Players this age don’t get traded except for those reasons, because it’s too early to say they’ve topped out, and there’s zero point to weakening your team for an iffy draft pick.
Debrincat put up those 41 goals next to Kane putting up 91 points. Zegras has never had that kind of talent to play off of. Without that talent, he looks a lot like Zegras.
Drysdale was not traded for a magic bean. A mid 1st is a magic bean, as was the 2nd included with Drysdale. Gauthier was a recent 5th overall pick who performed well as a freshman then led the NCAA in goals as a sophomore, had 12P in 7G at the WJC being named best forward of the tournament, and was a Hobey Baker finalist. Is he a sure thing? No. Was Drysdale able to stay on the ice? No. Do we have several players similar to Drysdale? Yes. Could Drysdale ultimately be the better player? Absolutely. Will that 17th overall likely be worse than Zegras, Drysdale, and Gauthier? That’s a pretty safe bet.
If all it takes for a 23 (not 24/1/2, not 26, not forcing their way out of town) 60-65 point player is a mid 1st, or another player and a pick, you should be able to find them. That’s your thesis, it’s on you to prove, not on me to disprove. Finding one comp that has question marks doesn’t cut it, the Ducks aren’t tanking right now.
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