Value of: Trevor Zegras this offseason

[HabsAddict]

To be fair no one on Montreal has really earned big money contracts yet….

A lot of them I’d argue Montreal over paid a bit, with the idea they’ll play into the contract

That is true...but it's part of pay ahead and hope.

It's worked with Suzuki and I'm hoping CC and Slaf follows.

 

[Miller Time]

So you’re going to be disappointed if Demidov earns 12+ mil?

Or is your expectations that they take pay cuts?

You can still want to get paid fairly and want to win/create a winning environment.

?
Who said anything about being disappointed by what a player earns?

Or expecting pay cuts?

You stated
"I wouldn’t want a player that wasn’t trying to earn as much money as possible."

I simply pointed out that I'd want players who want to win as the first priority (note "first", not "only"... Of course earning money is part of the equation for all involved).

Notging about being disappointed by how much a player earns (frankly, I think the players should earn more and the owners less, but that's a whole other can of worms lol).

As for "pay cuts"... It's not about "expecting it", it's about finding the kind of elite talent that have winning as their first priority. They know the cap realities, and they know they will earn more than they ever dreamed of as kids playing their favorite game... And they know that they can experience a far better career if they find an organization committed to winning and work with them to ensure the roster stays competitive year after year.

Ever hear of Tom Brady? Patrick Mahomes?

Lebron James? Steph Curry?

Patrice Bergeron? Brad Marchand?

Each took contracts below what they could have if they were "trying to earn as much money as possible".

Your statement suggests you wouldn't want these types of athletes on your team... That's an opinion. Power to you.

Personally, I want those type of athletes.

This isn't finance. The "point" of hockey, for most athletes, isn't to make as much money as possible and then retire.

You can have your mercenary roster. I'll take the guys who want to win on the ice.

To each their own.

 

[Miller Time]

That is true...but it's part of pay ahead and hope.

It's worked with Suzuki and I'm hoping CC and Slaf follows.

And while there's always risk with these kinds of deals, the reward can be massive.

It's great when a GM can show their trust and confidence in an athlete, because of what they've seen from them on/off the ice, and secure these kinds of deals.

Avs cup came in no small part because of Mac's team friendly cap hit, signed well before he was all-world (but not before Sakic and co. could see & bet on his off ice maturity and drive.

I think highly of Zegras. If I'm right, in 26-27 the ducks are going to be paying a massive premium to lock him up long term, losing out on 4-6 years of cap benefit because Verbeek didn't have that confidence in him when he did this bridge deal....

Assuming Z does breakout and breaks the bank in '26, he'll be staring at a 10+M$ long term extension... Will be interesting to see how Slaf/CC/Suzuki (all of whom had better seasons than Z last year) compare to Z from 2026-2030... When they will each be on sub 8M$ cap hits.

 

[HabsAddict]

And while there's always risk with these kinds of deals, the reward can be massive.

It's great when a GM can show their trust and confidence in an athlete, because of what they've seen from them on/off the ice, and secure these kinds of deals.

Avs cup came in no small part because of Mac's team friendly cap hit, signed well before he was all-world (but not before Sakic and co. could see & bet on his off ice maturity and drive.

I think highly of Zegras. If I'm right, in 26-27 the ducks are going to be paying a massive premium to lock him up long term, losing out on 4-6 years of cap benefit because Verbeek didn't have that confidence in him when he did this bridge deal....

Assuming Z does breakout and breaks the bank in '26, he'll be staring at a 10+M$ long term extension... Will be interesting to see how Slaf/CC/Suzuki (all of whom had better seasons than Z last year) compare to Z from 2026-2030... When they will each be on sub 8M$ cap hits.

Money for some can be a simple number measuring success...but for others a side measure, or if one is really lucky, a byproduct of lifes achievents.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

?
Who said anything about being disappointed by what a player earns?

Or expecting pay cuts?

You stated
"I wouldn’t want a player that wasn’t trying to earn as much money as possible."

I simply pointed out that I'd want players who want to win as the first priority (note "first", not "only"... Of course earning money is part of the equation for all involved).

Notging about being disappointed by how much a player earns (frankly, I think the players should earn more and the owners less, but that's a whole other can of worms lol).

As for "pay cuts"... It's not about "expecting it", it's about finding the kind of elite talent that have winning as their first priority. They know the cap realities, and they know they will earn more than they ever dreamed of as kids playing their favorite game... And they know that they can experience a far better career if they find an organization committed to winning and work with them to ensure the roster stays competitive year after year.

Ever hear of Tom Brady? Patrick Mahomes?

Lebron James? Steph Curry?

Patrice Bergeron? Brad Marchand?

Each took contracts below what they could have if they were "trying to earn as much money as possible".

Your statement suggests you wouldn't want these types of athletes on your team... That's an opinion. Power to you.

Personally, I want those type of athletes.

This isn't finance. The "point" of hockey, for most athletes, isn't to make as much money as possible and then retire.

You can have your mercenary roster. I'll take the guys who want to win on the ice.

To each their own.

Doing a bit of reaching here...

The orignal post just came off like you dont want to pay the players, but you kinda fixed that on this post. I dont see a problem with Zegras betting no himself, and really earning his big contract (if he does that).... ive said before i felt Caufield/Slaf are overpaid for what theyve acomplisehd.... its a gamble sure (and it worked with suzukis contract)... but if it doesnt work it can make your cap situation a bit awkward down the line.

I dont mind the 3 year deal on Zegras.... it gives PV time to see if his game can fit into the idea of the roster... I dont see a reason to rush into a long term deal.... see how the roster looks then and see how the pieces fit together at that point in time.

In that offseason well have Zegras Plus
Gauthier, Carlsson, Mintyukov, Zellweger, Lacombe and Zellweger
-mctavish the year before
I think youll have a good idea of how our cap strucutre looks at that point, and what our players are looking for in terms of winning/money.

 

[John Mandalorian]

I think there is def little to no motivation unless a team is willing to overpay.

Every report has suggested Anaheim isn’t trying to trade him, just teams asking(likely because we have gauthier carlsson and mctavish as centers).


It’s PV job to build the best team he can…. If he can improve the team with a zegras move then maybe he considers…. But zegras has been our best player over the last 3 seasons, so I doubt we’re going to really give him away for Montreal scraps or any other teams scraps

Issue is teams see him potentially able to get and think that instantly means we’re selling low

This “not without an overpay” has been a go to so long that this cliche should be mocked, parodied, or memed as much as possible.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

This “not without an overpay” has been a go to so long that this cliche should be mocked, parodied, or memed as much as possible.

I mean then why hasnt he been moved yet?

Ducks management not liking Zegras and wanting to move him idea has gone on long enough... and duck fans should mock/meme it. its been based off little to nothing from the start, and nothing has come from it.

 

[FiveTacos]

So the Ducks should trade him because he'll be UFA in 4 years? If that's the approach then no rebuilding teams will ever stop rebuilding. Why stop there, why not trade a guy right after his ELC? Just have a team full of nothing but 22 and unders.

Guess next year McTavish threads are gonna pop up because hey you don't want him to walk in half a decade as a UFA. Carlsson should be moved a year or two after that, no? That way you never have to pay big money to anyone, you can just be a de facto farm team for the rest of the league.

Nearly every top Cup contender is constantly juggling salaries and the cap for a reason. It's a good problem to have, it means you had a bunch of guys worth paying. I swear, some folks around here seem to think there's a prize for the team with the best win to salary cap ratio.

 

[BigGoalBrad]

Offer Anaheim an equal or better player and I’m sure they’ll make the deal. They have tons of cap room no bad contracts not a ton of talent no reason to not just wait it out he’s not going to play his way out of the NHL if he doesn’t take the next step.

 

[John Mandalorian]

I mean then why hasnt he been moved yet?

It starts with defining an overpay. As I’ve been saying for a while, his value will be upside focused. I think you’ve spent too much time in the weeds interacring with lowball offers.

Several teams have reason to be interested in him. Detroit, Carolina,and Minnesota have an incentive to target Zegras possibly more than Montreal.

 

[Miller Time]

Doing a bit of reaching here...

The orignal post just came off like you dont want to pay the players, but you kinda fixed that on this post.

?
No, I replied directly and concisely to your post.

Perhaps you didn't mean what you wrote, but in that case, just correct yourself

I dont see a problem with Zegras betting no himself, and really earning his big contract (if he does that).... ive said before i felt Caufield/Slaf are overpaid for what theyve acomplisehd.... its a gamble sure (and it worked with suzukis contract)... but if it doesnt work it can make your cap situation a bit awkward down the line.

They weren't paid for what they've accomplished on the ice. That's a very silly interpretation.

Zegras didn't so much bet on himself, rather, Verbeek didn't believe he was worth making the long term commitment to him necessary to get a full extension done.

I dont mind the 3 year deal on Zegras.... it gives PV time to see if his game can fit into the idea of the roster... I dont see a reason to rush into a long term deal.... see how the roster looks then and see how the pieces fit together at that point in time.

The Avs example I provided is the reason. In a cap environment, it's an important part of building a contending roster.

GMs league wide do it every year. Sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't. How well the team assessed the individual is a big part of that... Many GMs get that wrong (in either direction).

Habs screwed up royally when they bridged Subban... And inversely when they gave the incoming Drouin a big extension.

I think PV screwed up here... But Im bullish on Zs competitiveness fixing the maturity issues and him turning into an elite player by his mid/late 20s

In that offseason well have Zegras Plus
Gauthier, Carlsson, Mintyukov, Zellweger, Lacombe and Zellweger
-mctavish the year before
I think youll have a good idea of how our cap strucutre looks at that point, and what our players are looking for in terms of winning/money.

Thing is, players have long memories, and most have pretty hefty egos.

Being bridged despite his early success and promising trajectory, especially as he gets to watch his close friends and draft class peers get the red carpet rolled out by their respective orgs., is very likely to factor into how he approaches the next negotiation.

If I'm PV, I'm rushing to get a long term extension done this year, or trading him. If he waits, he's setting the ducks up for the same thing that happened to Treliving & the flames after they forced the short term "show us" deal on Tkachuk.

 

[HabsAddict]

It starts with defining an overpay. As I’ve been saying for a while, his value will be upside focused. I think you’ve spent too much time in the weeds interacring with lowball offers.

Several teams have reason to be interested in him. Detroit, Carolina,and Minnesota have an incentive to target Zegras possibly more than Montreal.

If reports and common sense has anything to do with it...Hughes was off the ledge when they drafted Demidov.

Now it's back to a value trade and of course for less assets. That may change again if Dach is truly made of glass.

Dach, Suzuki, Slaf, CC, Newhook and Demidov is more then enough if they are close or reach their potential. There is also a slew of 3 and 4 liners that should graduate.

 

[FiveTacos]

Zegras didn't so much bet on himself, rather, Verbeek didn't believe he was worth making the long term commitment to him necessary to get a full extension done.

Do you have a quote from either party supporting this? When he signed the bridge deal I recall it being unclear whether the team wanted a long term deal or Zegras did. Could just be the team was willing to go 8 years but not at a number high enough for Zegras.

 

[Rasp]

The point of the Zegras extension was to buy time to determine which kids were going to carry the team moving forward. We have so many young players who are only just stepping up to NHL level. If we start throwing out large long term deals around then it starts to be used as leverage for the next deal eventually leading to cap hell if we over pay someone.

To think Annaheim doesnt see anything in Zegras or want him in the team is idiotic and only highlights posters lack of knowledge and understanding.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

Unless the guy is a 120 point superstar (Demidov?) i absolutely don't want someone whose only concern is to make sure they get that extra million versus team cohesion.

Posts like this are the reason I am 90 percent certain Demidov will not be a game changer lmao

 

[Miller Time]

Do you have a quote from either party supporting this? When he signed the bridge deal I recall it being unclear whether the team wanted a long term deal or Zegras did. Could just be the team was willing to go 8 years but not at a number high enough for Zegras.

Quotes from the player or GM revealing exactly how they felt about the 2nd contract that skirted a holdout to start that season? While the player is still with the organization and has another contract negotiation upcoming?

Have you ever seen that?

I think you are exactly right, the team wasn't we willing to go long term at a number the player was willing to accept.

When a player as successful as Z was in his ELC signs a bridge, it's a clear indication that the player and club are not on the same page.

The deal they landed on favored Zegras for many reasons, unless one thinks that last season is more indicative of what's to come than his first few years.

This article had two perspectives articulating the same thing:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4922432/2023/10/02/ducks-trevor-zegras-nhl-contract-grades/

So it's not like Z really lost out in the deal, at least not unless he gets hurt long term or continues to regress and can't score a big next deal... But, as I pointed out, the team digging in and not betting on him, despite being the 2nd most productive player from his draft class at the time, isn't something likely to be forgotten... especially while Boldy, Cozens, Caufield & Hughes all got big term & $ commitments from their respective teams on their 2nd deals (Seider & Harley likely to follow suit this summer).

You don't need direct quotes to substantiate that likelihood... If you happen to know any elite athletes in pro sports, just ask them. (Or digbup tkachuk's comments about leaving Calgary... He's got a quote that speaks exactly to his decision to leave Calgary being made when the team showed they weren't willing to invest in him when he signed his bridge).

 

[Leonardo87]

Off-season is coming to an end in a few weeks with training camp around the corner. Can re-visit Zegras trade speculation at the TDL. Thank you.