Trevor Timmins Part II

[Belial]

Of the 2012 draft, coming up to FIVE years ago, only 3rd overall Alex Galchenyuk made the NHL. Other picks with 0 games: Collberg, Thrower, Bozon, Vail, and Nystrom. Hudon has played 6 games.

Of the 2013 draft, coming up to FOUR years ago, McCarron has 6 pts in 35 games and still not an NHL player. De la Rose has 7 points in 64 games (0.10ppg) and is not yet an NHL player (15 points in AHL this year. 1 point in 22 NHL games last year, 14 points in 34 AHL games last year). Artturi Lehkonen started this season with the Habs (16 pts in 46 games). Sven Andrighetto has 28 pts in 79 games and is still not an established NHL player. Fucale (G), Crisp, Reway, and Gregoire have 0 NHL games played.

Of the 2014, 2015, and 2016 drafts - only Scherbak played 3 games (1 pt), Sergachev played 3 games (0 pt), and Lernout played 1 game (0 pt).

My thoughts:

I think the Habs organisation should revamp and overhaul the amateur scouting, drafting, and development. I don't think any one person should be blamed but it's damn near unacceptable to have only 3rd overall Galchenyuk be the only established NHLer in FIVE years of drafting and development. I have high hopes for Lehkonen , Juulsen, and Sergachev. Not much hope for any of the others, including McCarron and Scherbak - but I'm open to discussion and being persuaded if anyone has insight to offer.

Exaggerating as always to make it look worse than it really is.

You keep saying 5 years , 5 years, but maybe we have to wait and see ? The 2014,2015 and 2016 drafts are way to early to judge.

Galchenyuk,Hudon,McCarron,DLR,Lehkonen,Andrighetto is a pretty damn record for 2 drafts . It was way worse in the span of 2007-2012 .

 

[Habs100]

If you look at the 2013 draft from the 20th overall pick and on, here's the leaders in games played,

Andre Burakovsky 183 games (23rd overall)
Anthony Duclair 140 (80th overall)
Andrew Copp 121 (104th overall)
Brett Pesce 121 (66th overall)
Marko Dano 97 (27th overall)
Sven Andrighetto 79 (86th overall)
Mattias Janmark 73 (79th overall)
Jacob De La Rose 64 (34th overall)


So the Habs have 2 of the top 8 in games played that were drafted 20th overall or later. Lehkonen at 46 games and counting plus McCarron at 35. Our 2013 draft have played 227 games after tonight if Lehkonen/Ghetto/McCarron all play.

Your reasoning is sound. However, I've decided to stop evaluating scouts based on games played. Scouts should be evaluated based on the quality of the player (1 top line forward is worth well over 10 4th liners, its not even comparable) with consideration taken to quality of draft picks (how many 1st and second round picks did the scout have, at what position did they pick in the first round, etc...)

Timmins has drafted a lot of impact players

Price
Halak

McDonagh Subban
Streit Sergachev (We hope, he's rumored to be able to fetch Matt Duchesne)
Beaulieu Emelin

Pacioretty Gallchenyuk Gallagher
Lehkonen
(We hope Ghetto, Scherbak, Hudon, and McCarron)

Conclusion: We need more impact forwards coming through the system or via trade.

 

[WhiskeySeven*]

If you look at the 2013 draft from the 20th overall pick and on, here's the leaders in games played,

Andre Burakovsky 183 games (23rd overall)
Anthony Duclair 140 (80th overall)
Andrew Copp 121 (104th overall)
Brett Pesce 121 (66th overall)
Marko Dano 97 (27th overall)
Sven Andrighetto 79 (86th overall)
Mattias Janmark 73 (79th overall)
Jacob De La Rose 64 (34th overall)


So the Habs have 2 of the top 8 in games played that were drafted 20th overall or later. Lehkonen at 46 games and counting plus McCarron at 35. Our 2013 draft have played 227 games after tonight if Lehkonen/Ghetto/McCarron all play.

Neither Andrighetto nor De La Rose are established NHLers. And neither have impressed whatsoever in whatever stints they've gotten in the NHL - in particular, they haven't impressed in their latest stints. Regression, or regression to the mean, or whatever you want to call it - they're not impressive draft picks or prospects as it stands.

We argued about JDLR before and so far I haven't been proven wrong - he's not going to be an NHLer this year, and he won't be in the starting lineup next year either. Brings too little.

You keep implying that he's the second coming of Darren Helm, when it's clearly not the case

 

[Adam Michaels]

Another thing we need to consider when you look at the year a player is drafted as a guide to how successful our prospects are is the age they are when they're picked. If a player is 18 when he's picked, he's got another two years of Junior before he can go pro. Unless he cracks the NHL line-up, which is usually a top-10 pick if not a top-5 pick that can do that.

You take McCarron for instance, he was drafted in 2013. Being 25th overall, it's safe to say he wasn't cracking the Habs line-up out of camp. He spent two more years at Junior, which ends after the 2014-15 season. Last year was his first year pro and in his second year this year, he's right on the cusp of being a full-time NHLer. It's been 4 years since we drafted him (3 and a half to be more specific), but you can't look to someone picked in his draft year and expect him to be NHL made after two years of Junior and a year and a half of pro since you picked him.

In 2016-17, almost every single team is now starting to see the fruit of their labour of their 2012 & 2013 picks. The draftees of 2014 and later are either just starting their pro career in the AHL or are still in Junior. You might find exceptions here and there but I don't think you'll notice that Montreal has done a bad job drafting and developing.

Like I said in my earlier post, maybe development is the department that needs to be changed. But I don't think Montreal's made that many bad choices at the draft since 2012.

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

Of the 2012 draft, coming up to FIVE years ago, only 3rd overall Alex Galchenyuk made the NHL. Other picks with 0 games: Collberg, Thrower, Bozon, Vail, and Nystrom. Hudon has played 6 games.

Of the 2013 draft, coming up to FOUR years ago, McCarron has 6 pts in 35 games and still not an NHL player. De la Rose has 7 points in 64 games (0.10ppg) and is not yet an NHL player (15 points in AHL this year. 1 point in 22 NHL games last year, 14 points in 34 AHL games last year). Artturi Lehkonen started this season with the Habs (16 pts in 46 games). Sven Andrighetto has 28 pts in 79 games and is still not an established NHL player. Fucale (G), Crisp, Reway, and Gregoire have 0 NHL games played.

Of the 2014, 2015, and 2016 drafts - only Scherbak played 3 games (1 pt), Sergachev played 3 games (0 pt), and Lernout played 1 game (0 pt).

My thoughts:

I think the Habs organisation should revamp and overhaul the amateur scouting, drafting, and development. I don't think any one person should be blamed but it's damn near unacceptable to have only 3rd overall Galchenyuk be the only established NHLer in FIVE years of drafting and development. I have high hopes for Lehkonen , Juulsen, and Sergachev. Not much hope for any of the others, including McCarron and Scherbak - but I'm open to discussion and being persuaded if anyone has insight to offer.

The players drafted in Bergevin's first draft are still only like 22 years old, so basically all the players we've draft during that span are mainly between 18-22 years old.

Aside from high draft picks, most players take a few years to make an impact.. we've had only 2 picks in the top 10 and in the other drafts our highest picks were 25-26.

Pointless to evaluate these drafts this early given how early most of these guys are in their development.

 

[montreal]

The players drafted in Bergevin's first draft are still only like 22 years old, so basically all the players we've draft during that span are mainly between 18-22 years old.

Aside from high draft picks, most players take a few years to make an impact.. we've had only 2 picks in the top 10 and in the other drafts our highest picks were 25-26.

Pointless to evaluate these drafts this early given how early most of these guys are in their development.

agreed, it's silly to crap on 21 year olds when out of 190 players drafted, the Habs have 2 of the top 8 in games played. They may or may not turn into something as we just don't know since it's too early to say, development varies from player to player, some more quickly then others of course, but that doesn't mean that others that take longer won't get there in time. We know most picks outside the top 10 or 20 don't make much of an impact but Timmins has done a good job finding NHLers despite picking less and lower.

 

[HuGort]

The 2007 draft wasnt just good, it was insanely great! When you draft 2 no.1 defensemen + a first line wingers in the same draft, thats like winning the jackpot, especially when none of them were drafted top 10.. Since 2007 we drafted only twice in the top 10, last draft we got Sergachev with the 9th pick and in 2012 Galchenyuk with the third OV pick in what was one of the worst draft in the history, if you take a look at that first round, only Forsberg is close to Galchenyuk in term of value..

If you take a look at the other drafts, most of the times we drafted extremmely low, but Timmins still managed to draft some good players in MCcarron, Juulsen, Beaulieu.. Also, since 2007 we rarely drafted in the second round, what make Timmins' job pretty harder but most years Timmins is drafting us NHLers in the making and I think he is doing a pretty good job personally.. I think the 2013 draft looks very promising too, alot of potential NHLers..

Timmins missed on a lot of talent....we have zilch instead of O'Reilly, Kreider, Jenner, Saad, Kucherov, Duclair, Arvidsson,Nutiverra to name a few

 

[Sorinth]

Timmins missed on a lot of talent....we have zilch instead of O'Reilly, Kreider, Jenner, Saad, Kucherov, Duclair, Arvidsson,Nutiverra to name a few

And you can say the same for pretty much every other team as well.

Neither Andrighetto nor De La Rose are established NHLers. And neither have impressed whatsoever in whatever stints they've gotten in the NHL - in particular, they haven't impressed in their latest stints. Regression, or regression to the mean, or whatever you want to call it - they're not impressive draft picks or prospects as it stands.

We argued about JDLR before and so far I haven't been proven wrong - he's not going to be an NHLer this year, and he won't be in the starting lineup next year either. Brings too little.

You keep implying that he's the second coming of Darren Helm, when it's clearly not the case

Which is kind of the point. There are what 3-4 established NHLers out of the 200+ players drafted. Clearly it's too soon to be judging the picks based on whose established themselves in the NHL at this point.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Timmins missed on a lot of talent....we have zilch instead of O'Reilly, Kreider, Jenner, Saad, Kucherov, Duclair, Arvidsson,Nutiverra to name a few

A lot of scouts missed out on those same players. A lot of scouts missed out on Pacioretty, Subban, Gallagher, Markov, Halak, 2 of them missed out on Galchenyuk, but we have something to show for those picks. Halak and Subban might no longer be with Habs, but Timmins is not the one who traded them, he drafted them.

 

[Whitesnake]

impressive to just know the future of a prospect.

Let's be honest though but as far as predictions are concerned, which are only what they are, there are no legitimate top 6 options in our prospect pool aside from 1 guy who isn't looking that good right now....Scherbak. The rest are mostly 3rd and 4th line material. On D, we are looking at Sergachev and Juulsen.

AT one point, the scouting group will need to be accountable.

 

[G0bias]

^Lehkonen is on pace for 20 goals as a rookie, with Plekanec as his center. Without being a guarantee, its fair to say he has top 6 potential.

 

[LaP]

Let's be honest though but as far as predictions are concerned, which are only what they are, there are no legitimate top 6 options in our prospect pool aside from 1 guy who isn't looking that good right now....Scherbak. The rest are mostly 3rd and 4th line material. On D, we are looking at Sergachev and Juulsen.

AT one point, the scouting group will need to be accountable.

To be fair there's not many legitimate top 6 in most of the other teams prospects pool either.

Legitimate future top 6 who are not top 6 in the NHL yet are very rare. We are talking about guys like Marner and Domi. Most guys still need to develop after their junior career. They still got a thing or two to learn. They still need a mentor and someone to guide them. There's still lot of doubts for most of them. They need to learn to be a pro and to be confident in their game at this level.

People tend to see the grass green the other side of the fence and see no grass at all here. For them all top 6 players were always destined to be good. The reality is most top 6 players in the league were not surefire top 6 players before developing at the NHL level after their junior career.

Of course the scouting group needs to be accountable. But so does the coaches in the AHL. It's funny that our best developing prospect right now never ever played for Sylvain Lefebvre. Yep our best developing and most surprising prospect is Danault a guy who probably never saw the face of Lefebvre for more than a couple of minutes here and there.

Maybe it's just a coincidence. Maybe not. But personally before touching to a scouting group who brought to this team guys like Patch, McDO, Subban, ... i would fire the coaches in the AHL. None of our guys progress under them. They look good the first time we see them and then nothing. Will be interesting next year to see how much Lehkonen is progressing. He too never played for Lefebvre and cie. He'll be 22 and have one season of NHL experience.

 

[Whitesnake]

^Lehkonen is on pace for 20 goals as a rookie, with Plekanec as his center. Without being a guarantee, its fair to say he has top 6 potential.

Was talking in the pool of not yet arrived kids.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

^Lehkonen is on pace for 20 goals as a rookie, with Plekanec as his center. Without being a guarantee, its fair to say he has top 6 potential.

I still think Bitten can be but I just wish he had more points this year.

 

[rockjngo]

Timmins picked...


Mike McCarron in 2013....one spot after Ducks picked Shea Theodore.
Nikiita Scherbak 2014....Brandon Montour went a few spot later.
Noah Juulsen 2015....Jacob Larsson one spot after.

Thats 3 defense prospects that could be top 4.

 

[Bob Cole]

Better start hitting some home runs pretty quick because we'll be needing players on ELC's after Pacioretty and Price get new contracts

 

[le_sean]

Timmins picked...


Mike McCarron in 2013....one spot after Ducks picked Shea Theodore.
Nikiita Scherbak 2014....Brandon Montour went a few spot later.
Noah Juulsen 2015....Jacob Larsson one spot after.

Thats 3 defense prospects that could be top 4.

Yeah Timmins has been pretty bad since 2007. 4 NHL regulars since then, and one was a 3rd overall pick. 5 if you count Andrighetto, but he's pretty average.

 

[Chili]

Timmins picked...


Mike McCarron in 2013....one spot after Ducks picked Shea Theodore.
Nikiita Scherbak 2014....Brandon Montour went a few spot later.
Noah Juulsen 2015....Jacob Larsson one spot after.

Thats 3 defense prospects that could be top 4.

Martin Madden and the Ducks scouts do a nice job with the draft (without a lot of high picks too because they are usually a contender).

Puts them in a better depth position to make trades because they have what other teams are looking for...young cheap players with good upsides.

 

[Whitesnake]

Timmins picked...


Mike McCarron in 2013....one spot after Ducks picked Shea Theodore.
Nikiita Scherbak 2014....Brandon Montour went a few spot later.
Noah Juulsen 2015....Jacob Larsson one spot after.

Thats 3 defense prospects that could be top 4.

True. Timmins has been average for quite a long time now. At one point, this whole scouting group would need some change. Scary part? Defense is this scouting group best picks....

 

[montreal]

Let's be honest though but as far as predictions are concerned, which are only what they are, there are no legitimate top 6 options in our prospect pool aside from 1 guy who isn't looking that good right now....Scherbak. The rest are mostly 3rd and 4th line material. On D, we are looking at Sergachev and Juulsen.

AT one point, the scouting group will need to be accountable.

can't expect much when you have 1 forward drafted in the top 60 in the last 3 drafts. They have 2 forwards drafted in the last 3 years drafted in the top 85.

Before that you have '13/'12 drafts. McCarron, Lehkonen, Ghetto, Hudon, Reway. Hopefully they get something out of that draft. The main pick I personally fault Timmins for busting if Collberg, a high 2nd round pick that looked the part during international tournaments and at least he turned into Vanek helping us make the playoffs but still one of his worst picks imo.

I still fault the development over drafting by a mile. McCarron has 20 pts in 21 games to start his pro career in the AHL and ever since hasn't been anything close to that kind of production. Moving Scherbak around the lineup, putting him with Matteau, Friberg, Audette.

Guys that could have top 6 upside, Scherbak, Bitten, Reway, Evans, Lehkonen, Hudon. The strength right now is in nets, granted 2 of them were undrafted FA's, but there's no way Timmins isn't in on it since he and his scouts have to have seen them and had input on them getting a contract imo. Lindgren, McNiven are having great seasons, Condon struggled here after being put in a extremely tough situation. Price, Halak as well, clearly someone has an eye for goalies in the organization.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Timmins picked...


Mike McCarron in 2013....one spot after Ducks picked Shea Theodore.
Nikiita Scherbak 2014....Brandon Montour went a few spot later.
Noah Juulsen 2015....Jacob Larsson one spot after.

Thats 3 defense prospects that could be top 4.

There's absolutely no indication that Larsson is going to be a better defenseman than Juulsen in the NHL. Different types of players and if anything Juulsen's game is suited to the NHL style of play.

McCarron vs Theodore is interesting. Theodore hasn't exactly made the NHL either, and is -12 in 28 games this year. He's been up and down as much as McCarron has. He's got a long way to go to be a top 4. OTOH, McCarron has a long way to go to be a top 9. Call that one draw for now. I liked Theodore in the 2013 draft & was surprised when they called McCarron's name. In any case, I think McCarron brings more of what we need right now. Theodore wouldn't improve our D, but McCarron does improve our 4th line and adds some size to the team that we absolutely need. McCarron improves our team now. Theodore wouldn't. In three years? IDK.

Scherbak is a talent but has the attitude & work ethic of a 13 year old. He looks to me like he'll bust, so there will be players that we'll wish we should've picked. Montour was a late 2nd rounder. Players who went around Scherbak's spot includes Barbashev (having a great year in pro), Quennville & Kempe.

People who expect 2-3 players in a draft year every year are kidding themselves. The goal is to get one NHL player and a few players to stock the minor system. The 2007 draft is not an ordinary draft. That happens maybe once a decade.

2008: 5 picks, no 1st rounder, got nothing.
2009: 8 picks, got nothing, bombed. (this one hurt as much as the 2003 draft did because there were good players to be had in that draft & we didn't get a single one.
2010: Brendan Gallagher (MacMillan, Ellis minors)
2011: Nathan Beaulieu (Didier, Dietz minors)
2012: Alexander Galchenyuk (Hudon minors)
2013: Arrturi Lehkonen, *Mike McCarron, *Sven Andrighetto (Gregoire, DLR, Fucale in minors). McCarron & Ghetto starred because they are still borderline NHLers but seem to have made the team. Lehkonen is an NHLer.
2014: to early to call for NHLers but Scherbak, Lernout & Audette are at least minor league players. Hawkey & Evans are having good years in the NCAA.


2008 & 2009 killed us, and we saw the results of that with a lack of system depth requiring MB to trade for depth players (Mitchell, Flynn, Matteau, DSP, picking up Byron, or sign ones (Moen & Prust.)
2010-2012 were average years. We got one quality NHLer and added players to our minor league team, which is what you want or hope for.
2013 has the potential to be a very good year if McCarron develops. We already have one NHLer with the potential for another. I doubt Ghetto stays with the organization but he could end up being 2nd/3rd line tweener. This is an above average draft.
2014-2016: Far too early to tell but Scherbak, Audette & Lernout are at least AHLers whether or not any of them can be NHLers is still up for debate.

 

[scrubadam]

Its hard for me to get over missing the 3 Ks and Timmins has a lot to do to make up for that.

Kreider Kuznetzov Klefboom all taken a pick or two after habs wasted leblanc tinordi and to a lesser extent beaulieu.

Dont care that other scouts miss players if they were here i would say the same about them. Those 3 drafts in a row cost the habs. Team wouldnt have issues at C or on the Wing if Timmins took those guys.

 

[Chili]

Out of curiosity at Christmas I did an analysis of all drafts back to 1969.

What I wanted to know was how many NHL players are there on average in a draft year (and it certainly has varied).

Numerous ways you could look at the definition, I used 250 games played (125 for goaltenders). We could debate that standard but I arrived at those numbers by browsing who I would be including and excluding in general.

If I look at the years 1979 to 2001, the average number of players that met my criteria was almost exactly 50 players per year (1156 players over 23 years).

Why those years? Prior to 1979, the number of teams and WHA factor skews the totals. Also, the 2002 to 2016 draft years are incomplete, in my opinion.

So what does that mean?

If there were 50 players of those type available, when there were 21 teams, the average would be 2+ players per team, per draft year. If we divide by 30 teams slightly less then 2.

Nothing definitive here, intended or implied, because quality is another matter. There are numerous ways to go back and evaluate drafts.

The rule of thumb I have always gone by though is that a team should average two of these types of players per draft year.

 

[montreal]

https://habsterix.com/2016/12/26/dem...revor-timmins/


I'll repost this article as it does a great job showing what the Habs have had to work with (picking less/lower) and how they have done.

Its hard for me to get over missing the 3 Ks and Timmins has a lot to do to make up for that.

Kreider Kuznetzov Klefboom all taken a pick or two after habs wasted leblanc tinordi and to a lesser extent beaulieu.

Dont care that other scouts miss players if they were here i would say the same about them. Those 3 drafts in a row cost the habs. Team wouldnt have issues at C or on the Wing if Timmins took those guys.

I'm still pissed he didn't take Gilbert Brule, Griffin Reinhart, or Aaron Palushaj. These guys were picked right after Price, Galchenyuk and Subban

 

[Adam Michaels]

Its hard for me to get over missing the 3 Ks and Timmins has a lot to do to make up for that.

Kreider Kuznetzov Klefboom all taken a pick or two after habs wasted leblanc tinordi and to a lesser extent beaulieu.

Dont care that other scouts miss players if they were here i would say the same about them. Those 3 drafts in a row cost the habs. Team wouldnt have issues at C or on the Wing if Timmins took those guys.

For Leblanc specifically, I blame Gainey and management, not Timmins. I'm sure he had him in his list, but I'm willing to bet Leblanc was not at the top of it when it was Habs' turn to pick. But having the draft take place in Montreal, surely Gainey and management decided to pick the local kid for PR reasons.