Trevor Timmins Part II

[Chili]

They originate from the coach playing him at wing for so long. The vast majority of posts were people begging him to be used at center. Then of course there were a few posters that were only interested in defending MT/MB and would regurgitate whatever dumb reason MT used.

I've posted the stats before in the Galchenyuk thread, he's almost 40% more productive at center compared to at wing, and he's + player at center and a - at wing. There is 0 reason to think he's better as a center, and our center depth is so poor there's even less reason not to use him at center.

I'm not among those who believe playing him on the wing was a mistake, I've seen too many prospects brought into the league at 18 and washed up by 23.

One example was Kris Beech who was labeled 'the next Ron Francis' by Craig Patrick after acquiring him for some guy named Jagr. His first game with the Pens he was centering Lemieux and Richer on the first line. Within a few games he had lost his confidence and never really recovered. He may still be bouncing around somewhere now, don't know.

In contrast, Jacques Lemaire was a centre when he joined the Habs. There were a couple of centres named Beliveau and Richard on the Habs (believe the number 3 was Backstrom?).

So Lemaire played the wing for a few years. He didn't become the number one centre until later in his career when Pete Mahovlich was traded. Didn't hurt Lemaire's career because he's in the Hall. The apprenticeship helped him become a solid two player and eventually a top coach.

I'm not down on Galchenyuk the player, just don't know what his eventual position will be.

If you've read this far...I mentioned Mario Lemieux above and it's important to note he wasn't always playing centre either. Especially draws, when his back was bothering him. Of course, he had the puck most of the time so it didn't matter much.

 

[Mathletic]

Tim Bozon and Dalton Thrower's careers were derailed by health issues.

Thrower's career was going south before injuries. Being sent back to the CHL as a 20 year old for a 5th season is a perfect sign that your development isn't where it needs to be.

 

[DAChampion]

Thrower's career was going south before injuries. Being sent back to the CHL as a 20 year old for a 5th season is a perfect sign that your development isn't where it needs to be.

I'm pretty sure he had some injuries before that.

 

[Mathletic]

I'm pretty sure he had some injuries before that.

Like every other player. His injuries started in his 20 year old season. Passed the point where his pro career was already off track.

Also, the kid always had discipline issues and wasn't smart about playing the game. Was suspended by his own team on a few occasions, including at the Memorial Cup IIRC. He was a gamble.

I liked Severson much better and said so on draft day He was the next dman drafted that day.

 

[Jeffrey]

Still waiting to know the team that was clearly better than Montréal since 2003 with similar quantity and quality of picks. Cherry picking is not an answer. All teams made enormous mistakes at some points. Draft is not an exact science. Stop cherry picking to match you opinion. Look a the the global picture based on facts...

I disagree.
In 2012, missing the 3rd overall pick would have been horrible. But for the rest of the draft with the number of quality picks it's downright awful for a top team. It's not even average I would label it below average.

Samething is happening for 2013. A bunchload of quality pick and poor results. To be fair the whole 2nd round of 2013 is overall very bad. Average draft.

2014 is looking like another complete miss. Bad draft.

2015 Juulsen should be a good player the rest... not so good. Average

2016 is the best Timmins draft in years. Good draft for the first 3 picks.. the rest.. to forget. Above average.

 

[jfm133]

Second guessing years after 2012. So easy. Again. Picking 17 -18 years old kids is not an exact science. Many players are consensus first round picks every years and never live up to expectations, only playinf a few games in the NHL or none. So imagine second round picks and later. The further down the picks the greater the uncertainty. Key is the average over the long run. You can cherry pick on every good scouting team to make it look bad.

I disagree.
In 2012, missing the 3rd overall pick would have been horrible. But for the rest of the draft with the number of quality picks it's downright awful for a top team. It's not even average I would label it below average.

Samething is happening for 2013. A bunchload of quality pick and poor results. To be fair the whole 2nd round of 2013 is overall very bad. Average draft.

2014 is looking like another complete miss. Bad draft.

2015 Juulsen should be a good player the rest... not so good. Average

2016 is the best Timmins draft in years. Good draft for the first 3 picks.. the rest.. to forget. Above average.

Blah blah blah.... The same crap. In 2012 Edmonton took a bust first overall. Then look at the second and third rounds in 2012. A cemetary of busts with a few average players. It's not like we missed an obvious pick.

 

[Jeffrey]

Blah blah blah.... The same crap. In 2012 Edmonton took a bust first overall. Then look at the second and third rounds in 2012. A cemetary of busts with a few average players. It's not like we missed an obvious pick.

You are comparing us to the Oilers?

The Oilers are well known to have the worst amateur scouting in hockey and even then their scouts were 50%/50% split on Yakupov or Murray.

The habs have not been drafting well lately and the player development (mainly the AHL) has been god damn awful. The only players who look to have somehow "developped" never even played with our AHL affiliate (Gallagher, Danault, Lehkonen, Galchenyuk).

We can thank god everyday that the habs had amazing drafts in 2005 and 2007 (more than 10 years ago to put it in perspective). It still remain that the recent trend since then is worrisome.

 

[Belial]

Since 2007 we drafted Gallagher, Beaulieu and Chucky(3rd overall)! This is a joke!

How can anyone defend this terrible drafting???

 

[Whitesnake]

I'm curious about the 2013 NHL draft, and whether or not it looks good for the Habs.

25th overall, Michael McCarron, the guys selected after him are a mixed bag
34th overall, Jacob De La Rose, uncertain but there are no superstars from that 2nd round
36th overall, Zachary Fucale, uncertain but there are no superstars from that 2nd round
55th overall, Artturi Lehkonen, A great pick doing better than the 2nd rounders selected after him
71st overall, Connor Crisp, a strange pick
86th overall, Sven Andrighetto, whatever
116th overall, Martin Reway, a terrific pick undermined by injuries
176th, Jeremy Gregoire, whatever

It's looking satisfactory but it's too early to tell.

True that overall, 2013 is looking rather meh. Still, there seems to be some late-bloomers in there. Shea Theodore is mostly stopped by the Ducks d-men depth. Hartman is already a serviceable NHL'er. While Lehkonon should be a good player....Brett Pesce was chosen not long after. Strangely enough, 3rd round looks MUCH better than the 2nd round right now. Buchnevich, Guentzel, Pesce, Janmmark (even if stopped by an injury right now), Bjorkstrand.

But the day that people tell me how we shouldn't write off DLR yet.....well is the day that you also can't write off Compher, Zykov, Erne and everybody in that list who are almost all of them have better AHL stats than him.

 

[DAChampion]

True that overall, 2013 is looking rather meh. Still, there seems to be some late-bloomers in there. Shea Theodore is mostly stopped by the Ducks d-men depth. Hartman is already a serviceable NHL'er. While Lehkonon should be a good player....Brett Pesce was chosen not long after. Strangely enough, 3rd round looks MUCH better than the 2nd round right now. Buchnevich, Guentzel, Pesce, Janmmark (even if stopped by an injury right now), Bjorkstrand.

But the day that people tell me how we shouldn't write off DLR yet.....well is the day that you also can't write off Compher, Zykov, Erne and everybody in that list who are almost all of them have better AHL stats than him.

I'm not writing off anybody, it may be that for whatever reason this draft is full of late bloomers. I don't know why that would be, but it's possible.

I consider De La Rose a good selection and a talented player. If he doesn't make it, I'm blaming development. He was rushed into the NHL at age 18 because Therrien wanted to undermine Eller in order to protect Desharnais, which was really absurd and disgusting. It was bad for his development. Out in the AHL he has not been given much leeway to dominate.

I disagree.
In 2012, missing the 3rd overall pick would have been horrible. But for the rest of the draft with the number of quality picks it's downright awful for a top team. It's not even average I would label it below average.

Samething is happening for 2013. A bunchload of quality pick and poor results. To be fair the whole 2nd round of 2013 is overall very bad. Average draft.

2014 is looking like another complete miss. Bad draft.

2015 Juulsen should be a good player the rest... not so good. Average

2016 is the best Timmins draft in years. Good draft for the first 3 picks.. the rest.. to forget. Above average.

There is no way for you to know if Timmins did a good (or bad) job with the 2015 and 2016 drafts.

 

[Whitesnake]

I'm pretty sure he had some injuries before that.

Thrower was well regarded as far as prospect. Everybody had him late 1st round. Button though had him 51st. So it wasn't a bad pick when it happened. End result though is that it didn't work out.

So yes, Thrower and Bozon weren't picked out of left field à la Crisp or Koberstein. But it still didn't work out. But the great part about that is that if he gets ''Blamed'' for the end result of something that should have worked out better, he also gets ''Praised' for the out of left field picks that works, like Streit, Halak, Emelin etc.

 

[DAChampion]

Reviewing the 2012 NHL entry draft. At the time scouts and fans everywhere were saying that the Habs had an all-time great draft. I remember it was raving positive for the Habs.

3rd overall, Alex Galchenyuk. Currently 1st or 2nd best player in the draft (tied with Forsberg). The Habs benefited from Edmonton and Columbus blowing their picks. Galchenyuk was not the consensus pick at 3rd, but rather was one of several players that expert scouts were advocating for.
33rd overall, Sebastien Collberg. A bust, good thing he was traded for Vanek. That said the *vast* majority of the guys selected after him are busting as well. There isn't a single top-six forward from the 2nd round that year !
51st overall, Dalton Thrower. A bust. That said the *vast* majority of the guys selected after him are busting as well. There isn't a single top-six forward from the 2nd round that year !
64th overall, Tim Bozon, a bust, but his career was derailed by injuries, so it's a pass. From the third, Shayne Gostisbehere (78th) and Colton Parayko (86th) are the only desirable players.
94th overall, Brady Vail, a bust.
122nd overall, Charles Hudon. Future uncertain. He clearly has skills and is now on the bubble. Previously he was undermined by the Therrien-Desharnais administration. Will he get a chance now? He might.
154th overall, Erik Nystrom, whatever.

As far as I can tell, there are no top-6 players selected after the 1st round from the 2012 draft. It was a very top-heavy draft.

Thrower was well regarded as far as prospect. Everybody had him late 1st round. Button though had him 51st. So it wasn't a bad pick when it happened. End result though is that it didn't work out.

So yes, Thrower and Bozon weren't picked out of left field à la Crisp or Koberstein. But it still didn't work out. But the great part about that is that if he gets ''Blamed'' for the end result of something that should have worked out better, he also gets ''Praised' for the out of left field picks that works, like Streit, Halak, Emelin etc.

The way I see he gets either credit or blame for players that had opportunity and a normal development curve. However, for players like Reway and Bozon, Timmins should get neither credit nor blame, as they didn't have the opportunity to succeed, health got in the way.

The same with the Rangers and Cherapenov. Was that a bad pick? Was that a bust? No it was fine, but he had heart problems.

 

[Tenshi]

Have a feeling that MB will do some more front office clean up this summer, Sly and co should be gone, and have a feeling that TT will be too...how about Stephane Leroux as his replacement?

 

[Whitesnake]

I'm not writing off anybody, it may be that for whatever reason this draft is full of late bloomers. I don't know why that would be, but it's possible.

I consider De La Rose a good selection and a talented player. If he doesn't make it, I'm blaming development. He was rushed into the NHL at age 18 because Therrien wanted to undermine Eller in order to protect Desharnais, which was really absurd and disgusting. It was bad for his development. Out in the AHL he has not been given much leeway to dominate.

Well that's not how I see this. The day people believe that draft to solely be a crapshoot, go and pick up mostly talented, skilled offensive players that could turn out to be top 6 players. And those guys can be had on every round. Athanasiou, Korostelev, Sokolov etc. I prefer to miss with DUclair than with Crisp. Prefer to miss with Sokolov than Pezzetta.

I have a harder time blaming an organization for bringing a guy too soon. What's the development problem that occurs because of it? The kid knows what it takes.....so he doesn'T have an advantage over the others are rotting in the AHL in wait for a chance? Shouldn't Hudon be more a development problem than him?

The way I see he gets either credit or blame for players that had opportunity and a normal development curve. However, for players like Reway and Bozon, Timmins should get neither credit nor blame, as they didn't have the opportunity to succeed, health got in the way.

The same with the Rangers and Cherapenov. Was that a bad pick? Was that a bust? No it was fine, but he had heart problems.

Again, those guys had big question marks prior to their healthy issues. Go look at the prospect list we were making at the time. Sure, we never know....they could have been late bloomers and all....but chances that of happening was rather slim.

 

[ginomini]

Again, those guys had big question marks prior to their healthy issues. Go look at the prospect list we were making at the time. Sure, we never know....they could have been late bloomers and all....but chances that of happening was rather slim.

Same thing with Benn, Gaudreau, Kucherov, Stone, Parayko, etc.

What if does guys had health issues like Reway or Bozon during their junior years ?


Really you can't hold those picks against him.

 

[DAChampion]

Well that's not how I see this. The day people believe that draft to solely be a crapshoot, go and pick up mostly talented, skilled offensive players that could turn out to be top 6 players. And those guys can be had on every round. Athanasiou, Korostelev, Sokolov etc. I prefer to miss with DUclair than with Crisp. Prefer to miss with Sokolov than Pezzetta.

I have a harder time blaming an organization for bringing a guy too soon. What's the development problem that occurs because of it? The kid knows what it takes.....so he doesn'T have an advantage over the others are rotting in the AHL in wait for a chance? Shouldn't Hudon be more a development problem than him?

Both Hudon and De La Rose strike me as development problems in different ways. I honestly have no idea what the Habs don't like in Hudon, it does seem to me like he should have gotten a legitimate chance by now, particularly since the big team can't score to save their lives. Someone in another thread posted that the Habs have scored 15 regulation goals in the last 10 games, that is truly awful. They should bring up Hudon and try him on Galchenyuk's wing. Or Danault's wing. Just try it out.

De La Rose reminds me of Louis Leblanc. As you recall, Leblanc played terrific in 2011, he was a legitimately effective NHL 3rd liner. In 2012, Sylvain Lefebvre started bullying him and succeeded in ruining him. He played him on the 3rd line with no PP or PK time on the basis that he wouldn't play PP or PK in the NHL, and instead that PP time was invested in the great Zack Stortini. It was a dumb decision. Leblanc was a priority prospect, and should have been allowed to develop his game in all situations, to acquire confidence and skills. Same with De La Rose today. Let him play on the 2nd line, the PP, and the PK, let him dominate the AHL for an extended period. Even guys like Kyle Chipchura could do so.

I agree that the Habs should be investing draft picks into high-risk, high-reward players rather than safe picks. The 3rd and 4th liners are irrelevant as Bergevin loves acquiring those by trade and UFA regardless. He's obsessed with building the greatest 4th line in the NHL, so let's not bother drafting those guys.

One thing that strikes me about the 2012 and 2013 drafts is how top-heavy they are. Unlike drafts from the previous decades, there are virtually no good players to be found after the first round. It may be that Timmins has not gotten worse, it's merely that the rest of the NHL scouts has gotten better. In the limit of perfect drafting, the only way to get better players is to acquire more 1st rounders via trade.

 

[DAChampion]

I'd like to see an analysis of whether or not the 2008-2013 drafts would have gone better for the Habs if they had simply selected the best player available according to central scouting or McKenzie. That is a more reliable metric than that of the 20/20 hindsight brigade claiming they wanted Kreider and Kuznetsov.

 

[Whitesnake]

Same thing with Benn, Gaudreau, Kucherov, Stone, Parayko, etc.

What if does guys had health issues like Reway or Bozon during their junior years ?


Really you can't hold those picks against him.

Most names on that list was already doing great in the pros 2 years after being drafted. Again, name me 1 guy who was PPG in his draft year and ended up being picked in the 3rd round? I have no doubt that Timmins saw him as the BPA at that time.....but there was no healthy issues, and teams passed on a PPG guy with the first 60 picks.

I'll give you Reway in that regard. Yet, there were at the time so many things to work on as far as his entire game was, that his health alone cannot explain why he was maybe not a great NHL prospect.

I'd like to see an analysis of whether or not the 2008-2013 drafts would have gone better for the Habs if they had simply selected the best player available according to central scouting or McKenzie. That is a more reliable metric than that of the 20/20 hindsight brigade claiming they wanted Kreider and Kuznetsov.

McKenzie would be more appropriate as it's a resume of various scouts. But I don't know why people keep referring to CSS as a good way to know anything.....those guys are just another group of scouts as if they'd be another team. Though again, wihtout the needs notion kicking in.

As far as the 20/20 hindsight brigade, well it goes both ways. There are the ones who wait to blame him if it doesn't work out...and there are the ones that wait to shout how a genius he was IF it works out. As far as I'm concern, my strategy is simple. Draft offense. From D to forward. If it works out, we might have a top 6 or top 4. If it doesn't, I can hide behind the crapshoot factor Timmins protectors keep claiming.

 

[Jeffrey]

I've been critical on Timmins lately but I would not blame him on Reway. This is exactly the type of prospect you want (boom or bust) in later rounds.

On the other end I hate the picks like Crisp overager, underachiever with limited potential.

 

[Whitesnake]

I agree that the Habs should be investing draft picks into high-risk, high-reward players rather than safe picks. The 3rd and 4th liners are irrelevant as Bergevin loves acquiring those by trade and UFA regardless. He's obsessed with building the greatest 4th line in the NHL, so let's not bother drafting those guys.

Good overall post. And that's mostly my critic when it comes to Timmins. For whoever takes the time to read it. Thank god you did.

 

[Jeffrey]

I'd like to see an analysis of whether or not the 2008-2013 drafts would have gone better for the Habs if they had simply selected the best player available according to central scouting or McKenzie. That is a more reliable metric than that of the 20/20 hindsight brigade claiming they wanted Kreider and Kuznetsov.

Forget hindsight.

Let's analyse the player projection (at the draft), their development, what they missed and what could/should have been done and how to correct that in the future.

Even when you are the best at what you do, you always have to ask how could we get even better.

 

[ginomini]

Most names on that list was already doing great in the pros 2 years after being drafted. Again, name me 1 guy who was PPG in his draft year and ended up being picked in the 3rd round? I have no doubt that Timmins saw him as the BPA at that time.....but there was no healthy issues, and teams passed on a PPG guy with the first 60 picks.

I'll give you Reway in that regard. Yet, there were at the time so many things to work on as far as his entire game was, that his health alone cannot explain why he was maybe not a great NHL prospect.

Bjorkstrand, Duclair, JC Lipon (overager, but went undrafted with near ppg), Vincent Dunn, Scott Kosmachuk, Tanner Richard, Jarrod Maidens, Brendan Leipsic... 2012 and 2013 just a couple of third round picks and later who where PPG or near PPG.

There are concerns on virtually any player that gets picked in the third round, really not an argument to prove Bozon was a bad pick. There's no way to know where he would be without health issues.

 

[Whitesnake]

Forget hindsight.

Let's analyse the player projection (at the draft), their development, what they missed and what could/should have been done and how to correct that in the future.

Even when you are the best at what you do, you always have to ask how could we get even better.

Also a good post. No idea why we can't analyse a guy's work as tough the job is. Every job is. GM'ing isn't that easy. Same with coaching. Same with playing. And yet, we can criticize every single of those guys. Not sure why we can't do it for him. Even if he is top 1, top 3, top 5 or top 10.

I guess based on results, if Timmins shouldn't be fired, same applies to Therrien. Great winning record he has as a coach. So....who's crying for Therrien now?

Bjorkstrand, Duclair, JC Lipon (overager, but went undrafted with near ppg), Vincent Dunn, Scott Kosmachuk, Tanner Richard, Jarrod Maidens, Brendan Leipsic... 2012 and 2013 just a couple of third round picks and later who where PPG or near PPG.

There are concerns on virtually any player that gets picked in the third round, really not an argument to prove Bozon was a bad pick. There's no way to know where he would be without health issues.

Didn't you just proove my point? That aside from maybe Bjorkstrand and Duclair, nobody from that list will ever make it?

Did I say he was a bad pick? Or just that the end-result is that it didn't pan out? Shouldn't we hold Timmins, who's seen around here as the best or one of the best to a higher standards than the ones who suck? We should only blame Timmins for the Crisp and Koberstein picks? That the only time we could blame him is for the picks were not on the CSS radar? I think a guy of that quality should be held to different standards. And that in the end, whether it's totally, partially or maybe just slightly his fault, the END-RESULT is that it didn't work out. Period. Now, from a fan point of view, we go with what we see. From an organizational point of view, if they know that it's a devevelopment issue, or a draft pick issue, or whatever issue...you have to think that they'll deal with that accordingly.

Thing is....if for some people is has nothing to do with Timmins and ALWAYS about Lefebvre.....why the **** is this guy still here? And shouldn't someboyd be held accountable for that? And what the **** is Lapointe and Ramage doing?

 

[Mathletic]

Both Hudon and De La Rose strike me as development problems in different ways. I honestly have no idea what the Habs don't like in Hudon, it does seem to me like he should have gotten a legitimate chance by now, particularly since the big team can't score to save their lives. Someone in another thread posted that the Habs have scored 15 regulation goals in the last 10 games, that is truly awful. They should bring up Hudon and try him on Galchenyuk's wing. Or Danault's wing. Just try it out.

De La Rose reminds me of Louis Leblanc. As you recall, Leblanc played terrific in 2011, he was a legitimately effective NHL 3rd liner. In 2012, Sylvain Lefebvre started bullying him and succeeded in ruining him. He played him on the 3rd line with no PP or PK time on the basis that he wouldn't play PP or PK in the NHL, and instead that PP time was invested in the great Zack Stortini. It was a dumb decision. Leblanc was a priority prospect, and should have been allowed to develop his game in all situations, to acquire confidence and skills. Same with De La Rose today. Let him play on the 2nd line, the PP, and the PK, let him dominate the AHL for an extended period. Even guys like Kyle Chipchura could do so.

I agree that the Habs should be investing draft picks into high-risk, high-reward players rather than safe picks. The 3rd and 4th liners are irrelevant as Bergevin loves acquiring those by trade and UFA regardless. He's obsessed with building the greatest 4th line in the NHL, so let's not bother drafting those guys.

One thing that strikes me about the 2012 and 2013 drafts is how top-heavy they are. Unlike drafts from the previous decades, there are virtually no good players to be found after the first round. It may be that Timmins has not gotten worse, it's merely that the rest of the NHL scouts has gotten better. In the limit of perfect drafting, the only way to get better players is to acquire more 1st rounders via trade.

Completely disagree about De La Rose. It was clear from day one the guy had little to no offensive potential. At some point he was ranked middle of the 1st in various rankings (including McKenzie). He hell throughout he year as people realized there wasn't much offense in him. Sure he's a big guy who can skate but there's more to that.

Same with Leblanc. He looked decent for a couple of weeks. Outside of that, he showed very little offensively. In the Q, at 19, he was barely a PPG player.

Your dislike, to say the least, for Lefebvre and Therrien is misguiding on those 2.

Same thing is happening with McCarron. Prospect with little upside sold as being Lucic 2.0 is starting to disappoint. Not a chance I'll blame Therrien, Julien or Lefebvre on that one. Bad value pick from the start.

 

[DAChampion]

Didn't you just proove my point? That aside from maybe Bjorkstrand and Duclair, nobody from that list will ever make it?

Did I say he was a bad pick? Or just that the end-result is that it didn't pan out? Shouldn't we hold Timmins, who's seen around here as the best or one of the best to a higher standards than the ones who suck? We should only blame Timmins for the Crisp and Koberstein picks? That the only time we could blame him is for the picks were not on the CSS radar? I think a guy of that quality should be held to different standards. And that in the end, whether it's totally, partially or maybe just slightly his fault, the END-RESULT is that it didn't work out. Period. Now, from a fan point of view, we go with what we see. From an organizational point of view, if they know that it's a devevelopment issue, or a draft pick issue, or whatever issue...you have to think that they'll deal with that accordingly.

Thing is....if for some people is has nothing to do with Timmins and ALWAYS about Lefebvre.....why the **** is this guy still here? And shouldn't someboyd be held accountable for that? And what the **** is Lapointe and Ramage doing?

The lefebvre excuse will be valid as long as he has influence on the prospects in the organization.

The Habs rookie of the year is Lehkonen -- a guy who never got to know Lefebvre. Best rookie in years actually.