Trevor Timmins Part II

[scrubadam]

It's not a good way of doing it because you have hindsight.
You could also take your method with every bust of every NHL teams. After every pick there is a possibility of picking a better player, except maybe 4 or 5 picks per draft.

Lets say for the Josiah Didier pick, yes he could have picked Gaudreau, but in the fifteen picks after Didier, Gaudreau is the real impact player, the only one with more than 100 NHL games and there are only 4 with others with at least 1 NHL game.

That said, Timmins had 1/15 chance to pick and impact player instead of Didier without hindsight.

But how else do we judge him without hindsight? The point of the draft is to get good players. So I will judge if the players he chose were good or not.

And I think its a bit more rough to look at players take 10 spots after. I am generally looking at within 3 or 4 spots, most are taken directly afterwards.

I won't hold it against TT for taking AG over Forsberg because Forsberg was taken 8 spots later. But then we have a guy like Tinordi and within 4 picks you have Hayes/Kuz taken.

So look TT can miss most prospects bust but TT has been racking up the misses and his 08-11 regardless of how many picks he had was horrible and is one of the big reasons this team has lacked depth. Even with the lack of picks there are a ton of players he could have chosen instead of the ones he did that busted out.

Anyways at the end of the day TT gets to live off his 07 draft till the end of time. The great thing about a scout is that it takes a few years to judge so TT will always have rope because his last draft will always turn out good we just have to wait. Like waiting for Qualier and Turnev and Avitsin and Dieder and Dietz etc... And then when he messes up well its not his fault because most players don't make it anyways. Its a perfect situation for him, get all the credit when his picks make it and get no blame when they bust because its everyone else's fault but his.

 

[Whitesnake]

The most honest way to evalute Timmins' work would be to go back to the NHL's CSS final draft rankings & Bob McKenzie's top 90 and pick highest player available off the list versus who Timmins actually picked. I've been pretty busy lately but I did 2008's (couldn't find TSN's list).

Danny Kristo (bust), picked 56th overall. Was ranked 37th among NA Skaters by CSS.

Had a very promising NCAA career but despite some decent stats in the pros, has never gotten a shot in the show. Considering where he was picked and where he was ranked, this one is hardly a mistake by Timmins.

Highest ranked player available off CSS list: Jamie Arniel. Kristo > Arniel. Win for our staff.

Steve Quailer (bust), picked 86th overall. Was ranked 131st among NA Skaters by CSS.

Quailer had a decent freshman season with the Northeastern University (25 pts in 41 GP & 4th on their team for scoring) but he blew out his knee in an exhibition game the next season which derailed his development massively. That being said, he was obviously a reach considering where we picked him.

Highest ranked player available off CSS list: Matt Calvert. Quailer << Calvert. Loss for our staff.

Jason Missiaen (bust), picked 116th overall. Was ranked 23rd among NA Skaters by CSS.

Massive bust off the start. Was picked solely on freakish size and the team didn't even both signing him after his career in Junior. Massive failure by our staff here. You can afford to make a pick like that when you're in a situation like the Isles were at that draft (13 picks) but not when you don't have a first round pick and you only have 5 picks in total.

Highest ranked goaltender available off CSS list: Kevin Poulin. Missiaen < Poulin. Considering Poulin is nothing special and that we have Price, it's not a huge loss but remains a loss for our staff.

Maxim Trunev (bust), picked 138th overall. Was ranked 55th overall among European Skaters by CSS.

Was one of the youngest player in the draft. He's finally getting it together in the KHL this year but at the end of the day, who cares.

Highest ranked player available off CSS list: Philip Larsen. Trunev < Larsen. Loss for our staff.

Patrick Johnson (bust), picked 206th overall. Was unranked by CSS.

It's worth noting that Anders Lindback was picked the very next pick by the Predators. But this late in the draft, it's pretty much blind luck.

Essentially, aside from Kristo (which is hardly a win in itself), this draft was pretty abysmal with this form of evaluating Timmins.

If someone else could try the same guidelines with another draft, I think that would be the fairest way to evaluate our scouting staff's work (I'll admit it's a bit similar to Mathletic's method but slightly different). I find with this strategy a) you avoid hindsight 20/20 b) you can see the merit as to why we picked X player if he was the supposedly BPA according to the CSS and other scouting services.

CSS is actually as if they would be the Vegas scouting department. CSS is not better nor worst than a team. It's just another team of scouts with the only difference is that if particular teams go with needs, they won't. They go with what they determine is the best to the worst player. So CSS is another team that don't care about needs. The day that any team won't care about needs either.....they would have that kind of list. Not in the same order 'cause it's not the same people.

Again, I don't think the point should EVER be about who's better, who's not. Was solely about the acknowledgment of the great and not so great results. Even if Timmins would have never made a mistake in his entire life but his only mistake was David Fischer....it's STILL a mistake even if you could add at the end of the statement....''It's a mistake but.....it's not like he does a tons of those''.

I always had it against the elevation of God or near God. The whole best in the biz, or amongst the best in the biz, and the proof given is mostly driven by the draft that ends in 2007 tells me that we should just be a little more careful. That's all. But seems that his family is posting in here and we are just not allowed to say that. I should remind those people that I STILL think he's very good. And that I've said that his 2015 and 2016 drafts had quite a few guys in there that could change a lot of people perspective on him. Positively of course. And that while I'm not advocating for his firing as much as I did Therrien's.....that maybe a new pair of eyes could be welcome. Or maybe it's Churla that doesn't have the credentials to be his right hand man. But for some, it seems that it will be the end of the Montreal Canadiens as we know it. But make no mistake.....i do realize that as soon as we'd let him go, another team would snag him the day after if not the same day. The way JUlien was let go and got taken by us right after. And there are numerous examples of people who were great, were let go and were taken right after. But while they were taken soon after being let go, they still were.....let go at some point. And while it didn't work for some, I don't think it was the end of the world for others. That's my point. If now the Timmins want to pick a fight, I suggest they do it with people who just simply say how awful he is and how he should be fired right away. That would be more appropriate.

 

[ginomini]

CSS is actually as if they would be the Vegas scouting department. CSS is not better nor worst than a team. It's just another team of scouts with the only difference is that if particular teams go with needs, they won't. They go with what they determine is the best to the worst player. So CSS is another team that don't care about needs. The day that any team won't care about needs either.....they would have that kind of list. Not in the same order 'cause it's not the same people.

Again, I don't think the point should EVER be about who's better, who's not. Was solely about the acknowledgment of the great and not so great results. Even if Timmins would have never made a mistake in his entire life but his only mistake was David Fischer....it's STILL a mistake even if you could add at the end of the statement....''It's a mistake but.....it's not like he does a tons of those''.

I always had it against the elevation of God or near God. The whole best in the biz, or amongst the best in the biz, and the proof given is mostly driven by the draft that ends in 2007 tells me that we should just be a little more careful. That's all. But seems that his family is posting in here and we are just not allowed to say that. I should remind those people that I STILL think he's very good. And that while I'm not advocating for his firing as much as I did Therrien's.....that maybe a new pair of eyes could be welcome. But for some, it seems that it will be the end of the Montreal Canadiens as we know it.

I view it exactly that way. Timmins have been great and then he have been bad. Let's hope he will be great again and hope that he was from 12 to 16.

For me these 4 years still look promising. Without having any stars we could still get many solid nhlers.

 

[Le Barron de HF]

CSS is actually as if they would be the Vegas scouting department. CSS is not better nor worst than a team. It's just another team of scouts with the only difference is that if particular teams go with needs, they won't. They go with what they determine is the best to the worst player. So CSS is another team that don't care about needs. The day that any team won't care about needs either.....they would have that kind of list. Not in the same order 'cause it's not the same people.

Again, I don't think the point should EVER be about who's better, who's not. Was solely about the acknowledgment of the great and not so great results. Even if Timmins would have never made a mistake in his entire life but his only mistake was David Fischer....it's STILL a mistake even if you could add at the end of the statement....''It's a mistake but.....it's not like he does a tons of those''.

I always had it against the elevation of God or near God. The whole best in the biz, or amongst the best in the biz, and the proof given is mostly driven by the draft that ends in 2007 tells me that we should just be a little more careful. That's all. But seems that his family is posting in here and we are just not allowed to say that. I should remind those people that I STILL think he's very good. And that while I'm not advocating for his firing as much as I did Therrien's.....that maybe a new pair of eyes could be welcome. But for some, it seems that it will be the end of the Montreal Canadiens as we know it.

Fair enough, I don't know if CSS is worth throwing flowers to in terms of getting it right or wrong with their rankings but I felt it was the most rational way to go if we want to completely dissect Timmins' work post 2007. As for your last parapragh, I was one of those people but I'm slowly leaning the same way as you. Maybe it's time for a change. The only thing that has me leaving Timmins the benefit of the doubt is Lefebvre in St. John's. One has to wonder the influence Sly has had on hurting our prospect's development.

 

[jfm133]

More empty talking and still no answer. Washinghton were not clearly better than Montréal and they had three more first round picks and two more second round picks.

Is it so hard to admit that drafting 17-18 years old players is an inexact science and that there will be hits and misses and considering the quantity and quality of picks Timmins had in 14 years, he was among the best overall? Why is it so hard to admit?

 

[scrubadam]

More empty talking and still no answer. Washinghton were not clearly better than Montréal and they had three more first round picks and two more second round picks.

Is it so hard to admit that drafting 17-18 years old players is an inexact science and that there will be hits and misses and considering the quantity and quality of picks Timmins had in 14 years, he was among the best overall? Why is it so hard to admit?

Because its not true. Timmins is far from the best in his 14 years here. He can live off of Price/PK/Max/McD forever in your mind but his 1st rounds have been pretty underwhelming. He has failed to get the Habs a top C (still waiting on AG and Forsberg would of been the better pick) and his 08-11 is bust city.

Yes he has a hard job and its tough to predict what a teenager will do in the NHL and how committed they are to the game, but guess what its his job and we have to judge him somehow. All other scouts have the same job and same difficulty yet we don't proclaim every scout the best in the business because its an inexact science.

But yes its not the scouts fault because of lack of picks, because of the coaching staff, because a teenager decided he didn't want to sacrifice for hockey anymore, because because because. If nothing is his fault why does he get the credit when things work out? If not for Gainey, Boucher and the NYR org he wouldn't have his great 2007 draft. Gainey got him the extra pick, NYR developed McD, Boucher developed PK+Max.

 

[Whitesnake]

More empty talking and still no answer. Washinghton were not clearly better than Montréal and they had three more first round picks and two more second round picks.

Is it so hard to admit that drafting 17-18 years old players is an inexact science and that there will be hits and misses and considering the quantity and quality of picks Timmins had in 14 years, he was among the best overall? Why is it so hard to admit?

Talking about empty talk.....so let's wait for people to come with opinions, and let's bash them for having some. Good work. You think that people in here actually say that this is an exact science and that the head scout is not allowed to make mistakes? That's what you read? And as far as your evaluation of how great he is, since we cannot compare every head scout based on the fact that every team changed at some point or another but we surely can say that since 2003, the Habs were one of the best based on points vs picks. Thank god that THIS was NEVER questioned. Or else we'd have wasted so much time.....

 

[Jeffrey]

You couldn't be more wrong.

Thank you for your support.

 

[Habs Halifax]

If Timmons is let go by the Habs, he gets a new job as head scout with another team as soon as their is an opening!

 

[jfm133]

Because its not true. Timmins is far from the best in his 14 years here. He can live off of Price/PK/Max/McD forever in your mind but his 1st rounds have been pretty underwhelming. He has failed to get the Habs a top C (still waiting on AG and Forsberg would of been the better pick) and his 08-11 is bust city.

Yes he has a hard job and its tough to predict what a teenager will do in the NHL and how committed they are to the game, but guess what its his job and we have to judge him somehow. All other scouts have the same job and same difficulty yet we don't proclaim every scout the best in the business because its an inexact science.

But yes its not the scouts fault because of lack of picks, because of the coaching staff, because a teenager decided he didn't want to sacrifice for hockey anymore, because because because. If nothing is his fault why does he get the credit when things work out? If not for Gainey, Boucher and the NYR org he wouldn't have his great 2007 draft. Gainey got him the extra pick, NYR developed McD, Boucher developed PK+Max.

Stop giving us your opinion based on anecdotal stuff that makes it look good. Come up with facts. Show us who is clearly better than him since 2003. Too much work for you I guess or it's because nobody is clearly better than him since 2003 with similar quantity and quality of picks.

 

[Jeffrey]

I will admit it's very easy to look at draft with hindsight.

But I will say that if you remove his 2007 draft (convenient you might say) Timmins has been way underwhelming..

I have followed the habs since 1993 and I cannot believe that since 1999 they have not have a legit top line center. That's unacceptable. It's the most important position, look at all the past decade stanley cup winner. They all have legit center and we are now hopeful to win the cup with Danault as the #1 center. It's beyond pathetic.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Stop giving us your opinion based on anecdotal stuff that makes it look good. Come up with facts. Show us who is clearly better than him since 2003. Too much work for you I guess or it's because nobody is clearly better than him since 2003 with similar quantity and quality of picks.

You want facts... this article has a few of them for you.
http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/n...ting-trevor-timmins-bergevin-amateur-scouting

 

[jfm133]

You want facts... this article has a few of them for you.
http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/n...ting-trevor-timmins-bergevin-amateur-scouting

It's not me you need to convince. It's the cherry pickers here that don't care about facts and overall job Timmins did.

 

[Jeffrey]

It's not me you need to convince. It's the cherry pickers here that don't care about facts and overall job Timmins did.

How do you feel about the draft from 2008 to 2012?

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

How do you feel about the draft from 2008 to 2012?

In the 2008 through 2011 drafts we had the following picks:

1st round - 17, 18 and 22
2nd round - 56th
3rd round - 65, 79 and 86

In 4 drafts we had SEVEN picks in the first three rounds.

Gainey traded 1 1st, 2 seconds and a third rounder for Tanguay and Schneider who were not re-signed.

Gauthier traded second rounders each for Moore and Wisniewski.

Gainey/Gauthier trading away picks like nothing just for the sake of making the playoffs set us back for years, the drafting wasn't great those years but when you have 3 later 1st rounders and one second rounder in a 4 year span odds are your drafts are going to be look awful.

 

[jfm133]

I will admit it's very easy to look at draft with hindsight.

But I will say that if you remove his 2007 draft (convenient you might say) Timmins has been way underwhelming..

I have followed the habs since 1993 and I cannot believe that since 1999 they have not have a legit top line center. That's unacceptable. It's the most important position, look at all the past decade stanley cup winner. They all have legit center and we are now hopeful to win the cup with Danault as the #1 center. It's beyond pathetic.

Again, so dishonest to remove 2007. It does not make sense. If you do that with Montréal you need to remove the best year from every other team.

As for center, I agree this is the weakness of Timmins overall job, but at the same time you need to ask yourself what were his chances to get a top-20 center in the league. Look at this ranking of the top-20 centers in the league:


http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/ranking-top-20-centres-nhl-numbers/


Of these 20 centers, only Bergeron, Getzlaf, Kreijci, Giroux, O'Reilly and Kuznetzov were not top-11 picks. So 16 centers were top-11 and 11 out of 20 were chosen in the top-5. The only players on that list Timmins had a chance to pick are the six non top-11 above plus Kopitar . If Timmins takes Kopitar, no Carey Price. So we are down to six players Timmins could have chosen. Two of them were from 2003, had Jeff Carter if you wish. Krejci, Bergeron, O'Reilly were second rounders. All teams passed once or twice on them. So they were not obvious picks. Kuznetzov stated before the draft he wanted to stay in the KHL. So basically it is down to two clear mistakes, taking Fisher over Giroux and taking Kostytsin in 2003 over Getzlaf and Carter.

All that to show that yes Timmins failed to pick a top center, but opportunities for him to do it were slim given he did not pick often in the top-5, which is the place to get a real top center.

 

[jfm133]

How do you feel about the draft from 2008 to 2012?

Respeck gave you the right answer.

 

[Wats]

Clearly drafting and development is no longer an organizational strength. I still don't see how the blame can be pinned on one guy. There's a different team of scouts compared to what they had pre-2007. Swapping out Timmins won't make a difference IMO, organizational change in this department is needed. Development is a disaster which needs to be addressed first.

 

[MrNasty]

You want facts... this article has a few of them for you.
http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/n...ting-trevor-timmins-bergevin-amateur-scouting

Thank you for this. When people argue on this board they are very selective with their stats. Ironically, when all stats are provided it shows that a team like TB who is often used as an example, has the worst drafting record overall.
They will point out a specific position that Montreal did not get a star in and ignore all the rest while not fairly comparing them to every other team in the league.

 

[Sorinth]

In the 2008 through 2011 drafts we had the following picks:

1st round - 17, 18 and 22
2nd round - 56th
3rd round - 65, 79 and 86

In 4 drafts we had SEVEN picks in the first three rounds.

Gainey traded 1 1st, 2 seconds and a third rounder for Tanguay and Schneider who were not re-signed.

Gauthier traded second rounders each for Moore and Wisniewski.

Gainey/Gauthier trading away picks like nothing just for the sake of making the playoffs set us back for years, the drafting wasn't great those years but when you have 3 later 1st rounders and one second rounder in a 4 year span odds are your drafts are going to be look awful.

History is also repeating itself. We haven't had a 2nd round pick in the past 3 drafts

 

[FinnHab]

What was case with Giroux and P.Bergeron, they werent highly touted propects at the time and Habs ignore them?

 

[WeThreeKings]

I have long been a Timmins defender but I am also of the mind that we should look to upgrade, if we can.

There might be someone behind the head scout in Washington that's helping them with their selections.
Also gotta look at teams like the Halifax Mooseheads who have managed to identify some real talent lately. Pay those people to come work for you.

My comparison vs. Timmins since 2006

Berglund v. Fischer
McDonagh & Pacioretty v. McDonagh & Pacioretty
N/A v. N/A
Josefson v. Leblanc
Kuznetsov v. Tinordi
Beaulieu v. Beaulieu
Galchenyuk v. Galchenyuk
Dickinson v. McCarron
Scherbak v. Scherbak
Merkley/Juulsen v. Juulsen (would take Juulsen because of Chucky/Kuznetsov)
Jost v. Sergachyov (I would go Sergachyov here if I had Kuznetsov)

I would have a center line of Galchenyuk-Kuznetov-Berglund-Josefson
McDonagh, Beaulieu, Sergachyov and Juulsen on the back end
Prospects in Scherbak/Dickinson on the wing

 

[scrubadam]

Stop giving us your opinion based on anecdotal stuff that makes it look good. Come up with facts. Show us who is clearly better than him since 2003. Too much work for you I guess or it's because nobody is clearly better than him since 2003 with similar quantity and quality of picks.

Why am I going to spend hours looking at every scout in the NHL. I can simply look at the habs drafts and see which players Timmins took and who he missed out on and go from there. Why do we have to compare TT to every scout in the league? How about TT is better than himself.

03 the greatest draft in recent history and TT takes AK instead of guys like Carter/Richards/Getzlaf/Parise etc...
04 Chipchura
05 Price - great pick but I would prefer Kopitar the big 1C habs have been spending 20 years looking for
06-David Fischer
07 - we all know how great his 07 was so full marks for him
09 - Leblanc
10 - Tinordi
11 - Beau
12 - AG (still would prefer forsberg)

and we can stop there because to early to judge the rest.

So he had 2 good drafts, one where Gainey got him an extra pick. Thats only the first round. That does not scream the best to me and he has really ham strung the team with his selections. But I am sure the excuse will be he had low picks, or Gainey told him to take that player or Sly ruined him or they were good choices at the time etc...

What about his 08-11 with such gems as Qualier/Turnev/Avitsen/Natinen/MacMillan/Arhcambeaul/Dieder/Dietz/Missiaen etc... All busts but again not TT's fault right?

Since Price which goalies has TT drafted?
Which top 6 C's did TT draft outside of 3rd OVA AG in 2012 over his 14 years here? Maybe you can add Grabovski.
How many 20+ Wingers has he drafted? Galley and AK and ?? I guess we can stretch and include SK and GL in there.

I could probably create an All star team with all the players he passed over during his 14 year tenure.

So I don't expect TT to hit homeruns every draft, but if he is going to be labeled the best then he needs to be better than what we have seen for the past 14 years. To me TT can't live off Price/Max/McD/PK forever. He has failed in the 1st round, he failed to get a C, failed to get wingers, failed to get goalies(outside of Price/Halak). He is great at getting Defensmen so I give him a cookie for that. But a team isn't winning anything with only Dmen.

 

[Chili]

My centre, my centre, where art thou?

Hidest thee amongst our prospect list?

Tell us where thy can be found...

 

[SpeedyPotato]

Because its not true. Timmins is far from the best in his 14 years here. He can live off of Price/PK/Max/McD forever in your mind but his 1st rounds have been pretty underwhelming. He has failed to get the Habs a top C (still waiting on AG and Forsberg would of been the better pick) and his 08-11 is bust city.

Yes he has a hard job and its tough to predict what a teenager will do in the NHL and how committed they are to the game, but guess what its his job and we have to judge him somehow. All other scouts have the same job and same difficulty yet we don't proclaim every scout the best in the business because its an inexact science.

But yes its not the scouts fault because of lack of picks, because of the coaching staff, because a teenager decided he didn't want to sacrifice for hockey anymore, because because because. If nothing is his fault why does he get the credit when things work out? If not for Gainey, Boucher and the NYR org he wouldn't have his great 2007 draft. Gainey got him the extra pick, NYR developed McD, Boucher developed PK+Max.

I agree his work has been underwhelming for a while now, but I still take Galchenyuk over Forsberg any day of the week.