Trevor Timmins Part II

[Sorinth]

My centre, my centre, where art thou?

Hidest thee amongst our prospect list?

Tell us where thy can be found...

Does Galchenyuk not count? He has a 0.83ppg this season which translates to 68 points.

 

[scrubadam]

I agree his work has been underwhelming for a while now, but I still take Galchenyuk over Forsberg any day of the week.

Its a toss up and you can make an argument for either but I personally think Forsberg is and will be the better player. But again thats probably because I watch the habs all the time so more chances to see and discuss his short comings compared to Forsberg.

Just glad we didn't go with Reilly or Lindholm. Good players but would just add to the list of C's missed during the last 14 years.

 

[Andrei79]

Because its not true. Timmins is far from the best in his 14 years here. He can live off of Price/PK/Max/McD forever in your mind but his 1st rounds have been pretty underwhelming. He has failed to get the Habs a top C (still waiting on AG and Forsberg would of been the better pick) and his 08-11 is bust city.

Yes he has a hard job and its tough to predict what a teenager will do in the NHL and how committed they are to the game, but guess what its his job and we have to judge him somehow. All other scouts have the same job and same difficulty yet we don't proclaim every scout the best in the business because its an inexact science.

But yes its not the scouts fault because of lack of picks, because of the coaching staff, because a teenager decided he didn't want to sacrifice for hockey anymore, because because because. If nothing is his fault why does he get the credit when things work out? If not for Gainey, Boucher and the NYR org he wouldn't have his great 2007 draft. Gainey got him the extra pick, NYR developed McD, Boucher developed PK+Max.

I've been slowly turning againt Timmins as from the data I've seen he seems to be average when you look at his whole body of work with us (and we want way better than average).

But there's some weird things here. Because first off it's Pac/McD/Subban/Price/Havlat and others from his days in Ottawa. Scouts get reputations from much less than that.

But even besides that, do you want a C or do you want Forsberg ? I ask this because I've noticed you seem to think Forsberg's a center (and have posted as much in another thread). Now, that's a pretty easy thing to know if you've seen him at least once... I mean, I don't mind the people saying they'd rather have him, but a minimum would be to have seen the guy play more than once.

And on the same subject, Forsberg was never in play as a top 3 pick. He ended up being a great player, but to fault Timmins for that is ludicrous. Same thing with Kopitar, Price is the better player and has the hardware to prove it. It's basically faulting him for either not choosing who you'd rather have, but also for not being picture perfect, which is pretty ridiculous considering you don't even know at what position some of the players you fault him for play...

 

[Chili]

Does Galchenyuk not count? He has a 0.83ppg this season which translates to 68 points.

Will he remain at centre for his career?

Anyone else since long, long ago?

 

[Sorinth]

Will he remain at centre for his career?

Anyone else since long, long ago?

Now that the coach isn't incompetent yes I'm confident he will remain a center.

And I would say Grabovski was a top-6 center for most of his career. Most top centers are very high picks. That's just how the league is, without those picks the odds are stacked against you. That's why half the league is looking for a #1 center.

 

[SpeedyPotato]

Its a toss up and you can make an argument for either but I personally think Forsberg is and will be the better player. But again thats probably because I watch the habs all the time so more chances to see and discuss his short comings compared to Forsberg.

Just glad we didn't go with Reilly or Lindholm. Good players but would just add to the list of C's missed during the last 14 years.

I like Forsberg a lot too don't get me wrong, but he's a winger while AG has a chance to be the center we've all been wanting and I trust he will become it under Julien. Forsberg is also amazingly streaky, he was going nowhere to start the season and has exploded in the last 10 games, he did the same thing last year. I know cause I've had him in my hockey pool both years. He's more of a Pacioretty type player imo, not talking about the style of play, just the production.

 

[scrubadam]

I've been slowly turning againt Timmins as from the data I've seen he seems to be average when you look at his whole body of work (and we want way better than average).

But there's some weird things here.

By that I mean, do you want a C or do you want Forsberg ? I ask this because I've noticed you seem to think Forsberg's a center (and have posted as much). Now, that's a pretty easy thing to know if you've seen him at least once... I mean, I don't mind the people saying they'd rather have him, but a minimum would be to have seen the guy play more than once.

And on the same subject, Forsberg was never in play as a top 3 pick. He ended up being a great player, but to fault Timmins for that is ludicrous. Same thing with Kopitar, Price is the better player and has the hardware to prove it. It's basically faulting him for either not choosing who you'd rather have, but also for not being picture perfect, which is pretty ridiculous considering you don't even know that player's position.

I'm happy with the AG pick but think Forsberg will be the better player overall but I think TT did good on not taking Reilly or Lindholm. And Forsberg went 11th which would of been a stretch at the 3 spot for TT to take. But I remember some on this board pushing Forsberg and overall I think it would of been the better pick but AG is a good one. But in the top 3 you better make a good pick.

As far as Kopitar vs Price, Price is a true stud and a great pick but I think the team would be better off with Kopitar. You can find a decent enough goalie through trades or UFA. I think Kopitar+Halak would have gotten the habs farther then what Price has done with the team so far.

I think that 14 years is plenty of time for TT to get that C the team has been looking for. AG may be it but 5 years later and there are still lots of question marks around him. TT has passed over lots of great C's in those drafts to the point that its comical. Look at the past cup winners they all had strength down the middle. The big complaint is lack of C depth on the team. Gainey wasted time and assets chasing the big C in Sundin/Lecaviler/Gomez.

And BTW Forsberg is listed as a C in hockeydb. I admit I don't watch many Nash games, I could of sworn when we played them he was down the middle but I am going on what is listed. He is working on his 3rd 60 pt season while AG doesn't have 1 yet. And injury play a role but being healthy is part of the game. We knew AG had knee issues when we drafted him.

TT has been here for 14 years yet the team has no depth almost every where. At some point we have to stop blaming the 3 different GM's, 2 different owners, mulitiple AHL coaching staffs spread across 2 cities soon to be a 3rd. At some point the buck has to stop at TT.

Anyways after one of Jost/Brown/Mcleod or Kunin become a top 6 C in 3 or 4 years I will add them to the list of C's TT has missed in 20 years of drafting.

 

[Sorinth]

I've been slowly turning againt Timmins as from the data I've seen he seems to be average when you look at his whole body of work with us (and we want way better than average).

But there's some weird things here. Because first off it's Pac/McD/Subban/Price/Havlat and others from his days in Ottawa. Scouts get reputations from much less than that.

But even besides that, do you want a C or do you want Forsberg ? I ask this because I've noticed you seem to think Forsberg's a center (and have posted as much in another thread). Now, that's a pretty easy thing to know if you've seen him at least once... I mean, I don't mind the people saying they'd rather have him, but a minimum would be to have seen the guy play more than once.

And on the same subject, Forsberg was never in play as a top 3 pick. He ended up being a great player, but to fault Timmins for that is ludicrous. Same thing with Kopitar, Price is the better player and has the hardware to prove it. It's basically faulting him for either not choosing who you'd rather have, but also for not being picture perfect, which is pretty ridiculous considering you don't even know at what position some of the players you fault him for play...

Forsberg was ranked 4th in Bob McKenzie's pre draft list and Kopitar was ranked 5th (Price was 7th). They both slid on draft day but they were ranked quite high and almost certainly were considered at our picks.

 

[scrubadam]

Now that the coach isn't incompetent yes I'm confident he will remain a center.

And I would say Grabovski was a top-6 center for most of his career. Most top centers are very high picks. That's just how the league is, without those picks the odds are stacked against you. That's why half the league is looking for a #1 center.

I agree but thats why you better get that 1C when you have the chance. Wish you could of told this to TT when he started maybe he takes Carter/Giroux/Kuznetzov. Not to mention some 2nd rounders like Bergeron/ROR that he missed out on as well.

Yes its very hard to get a 1C, the best place is the draft and if one is selected within a few picks of yours well then your scout royally messed up and really screwed the team over. But again its not TT's fault how would he have known the Carter or Giroux would become such good players? Its not like that his job or anything.

 

[Jeffrey]

I remember the 2012 draft like it was yesterday.

I wanted in order back then.
1.Galchenyuk
2. Forsberg

Now it's probably flipped around.

I was almost certain that the leafs would select Forsberg when we passed him. I was shocked to see him drop past 10. To me he was easily a top 5 pick.

 

[Chili]

Now that the coach isn't incompetent yes I'm confident he will remain a center.

And I would say Grabovski was a top-6 center for most of his career. Most top centers are very high picks. That's just how the league is, without those picks the odds are stacked against you. That's why half the league is looking for a #1 center.

I'm less confident then you about Galchenyuk at centre but I won't pretend that I know the future. It will be up to the player himself though, how good he becimes there.

Beyond that, how many posts on this forum have been related to the centre position?

And a lot of them originate from the lack of success here, in my opinion.

 

[jfm133]

Still waiting to know the team that was clearly better than Montréal since 2003 with similar quantity and quality of picks. Cherry picking is not an answer. All teams made enormous mistakes at some points. Draft is not an exact science. Stop cherry picking to match you opinion. Look a the the global picture based on facts...

 

[SOLR]

Still waiting to know the team that was clearly better than Montréal since 2003 with similar quantity and quality of picks. Cherry picking is not an answer. All teams made enormous mistakes at some points. Draft is not an exact science. Stop cherry picking to match you opinion. Look a the the global picture based on facts...

We are currently suffering from Bergevin's vision of seeing guys like Plekanec and Emelin as part of the core early in his term. This is the biggest factor. If he trades Plekanec for a 1st in the same year we got Chucky, I think we would have been much worse the following year, but we would be much stronger now with one of these Hertl-Teravainen-Ceci or *jackpot* Maatta. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but this is one of the decisions that explains why this team appears half-baked (there are many more before that of course) Losing Souray for nothing etc. Committing to recycling assets during bad years has been the absolute worse decision making aspect of the habs in the past 10-12 years.

 

[Andrei79]

I'm happy with the AG pick but think Forsberg will be the better player overall but I think TT did good on not taking Reilly or Lindholm. And Forsberg went 11th which would of been a stretch at the 3 spot for TT to take. But I remember some on this board pushing Forsberg and overall I think it would of been the better pick but AG is a good one. But in the top 3 you better make a good pick.

As far as Kopitar vs Price, Price is a true stud and a great pick but I think the team would be better off with Kopitar. You can find a decent enough goalie through trades or UFA. I think Kopitar+Halak would have gotten the habs farther then what Price has done with the team so far.

I think that 14 years is plenty of time for TT to get that C the team has been looking for. AG may be it but 5 years later and there are still lots of question marks around him. TT has passed over lots of great C's in those drafts to the point that its comical. Look at the past cup winners they all had strength down the middle. The big complaint is lack of C depth on the team. Gainey wasted time and assets chasing the big C in Sundin/Lecaviler/Gomez.

And BTW Forsberg is listed as a C in hockeydb. I admit I don't watch many Nash games, I could of sworn when we played them he was down the middle but I am going on what is listed. He is working on his 3rd 60 pt season while AG doesn't have 1 yet. And injury play a role but being healthy is part of the game. We knew AG had knee issues when we drafted him.

TT has been here for 14 years yet the team has no depth almost every where. At some point we have to stop blaming the 3 different GM's, 2 different owners, mulitiple AHL coaching staffs spread across 2 cities soon to be a 3rd. At some point the buck has to stop at TT.

Anyways after one of Jost/Brown/Mcleod or Kunin become a top 6 C in 3 or 4 years I will add them to the list of C's TT has missed in 20 years of drafting.

Oh, I don't disagree completely. I feel if Sergachev becomes a top of the line D though that it's not so bad to have missed those three guys. I mean, if Gauthier/Gainey had played their hand well, they could've had a top flight center for McDonagh eventually (like the Johansen deal).

I don't think Halak would've cut it personnally, he's having a tough time being an NHLer, and hasn't ever solidified his number 1 status. So, Kopitar-Price is debatable, but I don't see how you can fault Timmins for getting such a great player. I think if we're going to fault Timmins it's when he doesn't pick those great players.

For Forsberg, he really is a winger, hockeydb isn't reliable for positions. An easy way to check if you're not following the player is faceoffs taken. Forsberg has 18 this year, that's low even for a winger (last year, 2, year before, 3). For Galchy, I think it remains to be seen, but let's be honest here, he's shown gradual improvement to the point we'd be probably discussing how he might get to 70 points as a center this year had he not been injured. He'll be a good one, and unlike Forsberg, he fills a need down the middle.

I guess the last thing I'll say, though I keep repeating myself, is I hated the '03 and 06' picks at the time and time just made me hate them more. I can understand most of the other picks (Leblanc, Tinordi, Chipchura, they were good prospects at the time of their drafts), but Fischer and Kostitsyn I'll never understand. Add Lapierre and Urquhart and you have a draft disaster that set this franchise back 5-10 years. I mean, Savard pushed for Urquhart, why couldn't he push for Carter like he wanted...

 

[Sorinth]

I'm less confident then you about Galchenyuk at centre but I won't pretend that I know the future. It will be up to the player himself though, how good he becimes there.

Beyond that, how many posts on this forum have been related to the centre position?

And a lot of them originate from the lack of success here, in my opinion.

They originate from the coach playing him at wing for so long. The vast majority of posts were people begging him to be used at center. Then of course there were a few posters that were only interested in defending MT/MB and would regurgitate whatever dumb reason MT used.

I've posted the stats before in the Galchenyuk thread, he's almost 40% more productive at center compared to at wing, and he's + player at center and a - at wing. There is 0 reason to think he's better as a center, and our center depth is so poor there's even less reason not to use him at center.

I guess the last thing I'll say, though I keep repeating myself, is I hated the '03 and 06' picks at the time and time just made me hate them more. I can understand most of the other picks (Leblanc, Tinordi, Chipchura, they were good prospects at the time of their drafts), but Fischer and Kostitsyn I'll never understand. Add Lapierre and Urquhart and you have a draft disaster that set this franchise back 5-10 years. I mean, Savard pushed for Urquhart, why couldn't he push for Carter like he wanted...

I thought the rumour was Savard pushed for Kostitsyn and Timmins wanted Getzlaf but because he was newly hired he didn't want to enforce his authority. Regardless it's on Timmins, I just wouldn't put too much stock in those kinds of things. It's mostly made up stuff to either justify making a bad pick or bash the guy.

 

[Andrei79]

I thought the rumour was Savard pushed for Kostitsyn and Timmins wanted Getzlaf but because he was newly hired he didn't want to enforce his authority. Regardless it's on Timmins, I just wouldn't put too much stock in those kinds of things. It's mostly made up stuff to either justify making a bad pick or bash the guy.

I can link you to a few sources (RDS, TVA sport, Matthias Brunet).

This is a great read for those who want to see how close the team was to getting guys like Giroux, Kreider, Carter.

http://plus.lapresse.ca/screens/1f8998be-b12f-4fac-8de3-80b19a095d99|_0.html

http://www.rds.ca/hockey/andre-savard-a-sa-place-avec-le-ch-1.451799
tldr:

Savard n'a jamais caché que son choix personnel aurait été Carter.

From Brunet:

Il m’a confié par la suite en entrevue qu’il avait plutôt un penchant pour Jeff Carter

Carter is prototypical Savard player, he loves guys with great hands.

It's not really importan though. As you said, it's an exercise in futility and justifications, but I've always enjoyed how these guys look at the draft.

 

[Wandering Maroon]

I thought the rumour was Savard pushed for Kostitsyn and Timmins wanted Getzlaf but because he was newly hired he didn't want to enforce his authority. Regardless it's on Timmins, I just wouldn't put too much stock in those kinds of things. It's mostly made up stuff to either justify making a bad pick or bash the guy.

I think everybody on this post forgets that the GM makes the pick not the scouting director. Everybody blames him but his track record is pretty good or else they wouldn't have kept him around. Who was put in charge of developing these guys - nobody when Gainey was around and Martin Lapointe for MB's tenure. He should get some of the blame for these guys not developing. De La Rose, Fucale, Lernout haven't been setting the world on fire. Timmins didn't have a 2nd round pick for many years.

 

[Teufelsdreck]

I can accept very good instead of excellent, and even some gambles, but not obvious failures.

 

[Whitesnake]

You want facts... this article has a few of them for you.
http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/n...ting-trevor-timmins-bergevin-amateur-scouting

And again...for a millionth time....not a lot of people dispute his overall record. But mostly his record since 2008. And as of now, we can even add 2012 though we'll need to see what Hudon will do. And 2013, you are not going to have world beater in there either. So all those great stats as far as game played is concerned, well this is mostly driven by his 2003 to 2007 which was ALWAYS mentions here but you and a few other keep pretending it's not happening.

And the great part about the article you are mentioning is the fact that they mention that the part where Timmins REALLY SHINES.....it's the late round hidden gems. Did you see this? So Timmins used the numerous late round picks and his wisdom to boost that stats you're talking about. Guess what though....how are those late rounders since 2008? Let's even add the 5th round in this if you want despite that the stats separate the 4th and 5th to the late rounds....and you have...Gallagher. Who else? 'Cause THAT stat isn't about 1st round. Not about how many picks in the first 3 rounds. It's about LATE ROUND GEMS, which is what this article you lvoe so much makes Timmins REALLY shines....The best chance he has starts in 2014. With Hawkey and Evans. 2015 could look good too....but way too soon. So regarding that LATE ROUND GEM selections......Timmins has Gallagher to show for. From 2008 to 2013. And again, if you add the 5th round to this....Hudon is still a question mark. So this is not even about comparing him to his peers in that regard....it's about comparing him to...himself. The guy known mostly to discover late round gems, and deserved to be known like it, used his late rounders to get Halak, Streit, Grabs, and you have to add Kosty and D'Ago. THAT is where he boosted his stats. Well there and his insane 2007 draft.

I think everybody on this post forgets that the GM makes the pick not the scouting director. Everybody blames him but his track record is pretty good or else they wouldn't have kept him around. Who was put in charge of developing these guys - nobody when Gainey was around and Martin Lapointe for MB's tenure. He should get some of the blame for these guys not developing. De La Rose, Fucale, Lernout haven't been setting the world on fire. Timmins didn't have a 2nd round pick for many years.

Except this is not true. As said previously by a guy named Grant McCagg that is close to Timmins. Timmins makes the call. The GM asks him if he's sure.

 

[jfm133]

We are currently suffering from Bergevin's vision of seeing guys like Plekanec and Emelin as part of the core early in his term. This is the biggest factor. If he trades Plekanec for a 1st in the same year we got Chucky, I think we would have been much worse the following year, but we would be much stronger now with one of these Hertl-Teravainen-Ceci or *jackpot* Maatta. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but this is one of the decisions that explains why this team appears half-baked (there are many more before that of course) Losing Souray for nothing etc. Committing to recycling assets during bad years has been the absolute worse decision making aspect of the habs in the past 10-12 years.

Sorry, you don't blame the right guy for that, if there is a blame to be given. Bergevin has been hired by Molson with a mandate: try to make the playoffs every year.

And again...for a millionth time....not a lot of people dispute his overall record. But mostly his record since 2008.

What is so hard to understand in the fact that from 2008-2011 half his top-60 picks were taken away from him? In 2012 the most important thing was to get the 3rd overall right, he did that, and if Hudon pans out it will be a good year. Then from 2013 on it's too early to call but it looks very good even though he had no second round picks in the last three years.

 

[MaxDummy]

Scrubadam

Forsberg is not a centre.

Not. A. Centre.

 

[scrubadam]

Scrubadam

Forsberg is not a centre.

Not. A. Centre.

Yes Andrei79 explained that. Like I said he is listed as C where I was checking.

Either way it was a good pick to take AG, better than taking another D in Lindholm/Reilly.

I still think Forsberg will have the better career but TT got it right by taking AG.

Doesn't change all the other C's TT missed out on while this team has been looking for a C under his watch.

Whats better to draft a C or to have to trade Serge and 1st to get MD?

 

[Whitesnake]

What is so hard to understand in the fact that from 2008-2011 half his top-60 picks were taken away from him? In 2012 the most important thing was to get the 3rd overall right, he did that, and if Hudon pans out it will be a good year. Then from 2013 on it's too early to call but it looks very good even though he had no second round picks in the last three years.

He still had 3 of his 4 1st rounders. And most importantly, he had enough picks to find some late round gems, which he was applauded for from 2003 to 2007, you know that article you loved and appreciated a lot, which says that where Timmins REALLY shines, is in his late round gems?

And I love how you put Hudon's name in there to make you feel good about the draft where there's absolutely nothing right now that can tell you that it's either great or bad. So Hudon, right now, is nothing. And not a proof that 2012 is a great draft. And something you keep whining about as far as not having a lot of picks to work with between 2008 and 2011, well he had that in 2012. He had 4 picks in the top 64. How many teams have that? And how did that work out?

And how many times should I tell you and a few of your other friends that Timmins wasn't about high picks? Do you know that in 2010, a year where he had 5 picks and no 2nd and 3rd round...he got us Gallagher? While in 2009 where he had 2 3rd round and a higher 1st rounder, he got us nothing? Do you know that in 2006, while he had 4 picks in the first 66 picks, he got us Ryan White, while he was able in 2004 with a 84th pick to get Emelin, with a 150th pick to get Grabovski and Streit with a 262nd pick?

How about you start realizing that this is what Timmins USED to do and is not doing anymore until proven otherwise? Should I add, again, how he can prove it IF Hudon pans out....and if mostly his 2014 to 2016 picks pan out too? This analysis IS subject to revision.

 

[DAChampion]

He still had 3 of his 4 1st rounders. And most importantly, he had enough picks to find some late round gems, which he was applauded for from 2003 to 2007, you know that article you loved and appreciated a lot, which says that where Timmins REALLY shines, is in his late round gems?

And I love how you put Hudon's name in there to make you feel good about the draft where there's absolutely nothing right now that can tell you that it's either great or bad. So Hudon, right now, is nothing. And not a proof that 2012 is a great draft. And something you keep whining about as far as not having a lot of picks to work with between 2008 and 2011, well he had that in 2012. He had 4 picks in the top 64. How many teams have that? And how did that work out?

And how many times should I tell you and a few of your other friends that Timmins wasn't about high picks? Do you know that in 2010, a year where he had 5 picks and no 2nd and 3rd round...he got us Gallagher? While in 2009 where he had 2 3rd round and a higher 1st rounder, he got us nothing? Do you know that in 2006, while he had 4 picks in the first 66 picks, he got us Ryan White, while he was able in 2004 with a 84th pick to get Emelin, with a 150th pick to get Grabovski and Streit with a 262nd pick?

How about you start realizing that this is what Timmins USED to do and is not doing anymore until proven otherwise? Should I add, again, how he can prove it IF Hudon pans out....and if mostly his 2014 to 2016 picks pan out too? This analysis IS subject to revision.

Tim Bozon and Dalton Thrower's careers were derailed by health issues.

I'm curious about the 2013 NHL draft, and whether or not it looks good for the Habs.

25th overall, Michael McCarron, the guys selected after him are a mixed bag
34th overall, Jacob De La Rose, uncertain but there are no superstars from that 2nd round
36th overall, Zachary Fucale, uncertain but there are no superstars from that 2nd round
55th overall, Artturi Lehkonen, A great pick doing better than the 2nd rounders selected after him
71st overall, Connor Crisp, a strange pick
86th overall, Sven Andrighetto, whatever
116th overall, Martin Reway, a terrific pick undermined by injuries
176th, Jeremy Gregoire, whatever

It's looking satisfactory but it's too early to tell.

 

[Whitesnake]

Tim Bozon and Dalton Thrower's careers were derailed by health issues.

Easy to say. Yet, nothing can prove that they would have made it without it. We're not talking about 1st rounders here. Bozon was picked in the 3rd round despite having the draft season he had. Which means that every team didn't think he was not worth to be chosen in the first 2 rounds, hence was surely a very good junior player but was a longer shot for a NHL career. How many guys that are going PPG in their draft season aren't picked in the first 2 rounds?