Management Travis Green [Head Coach]

[senswon]

need to cut down the goals against and lets see how our road game is. Positive signs so far

Utah is humming right now .... hope we keep the energy from last game with a dash of ullmark

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

Utah is humming right now .... hope we keep the energy from last game with a dash of ullmark

I guess Chychrun should have stayed after all

 

[Tuna99]

Every single player on the team looks better than last year (TBF Brady the only player looking a bit flat and has 7 points). The team looks 3 inches taller than last year.

McEwen coming over the boards to fight, Timmy comeback on that dude Montréal should never have traded, Gregor pretending he’s the next Antoine Vermette - the players know their rolls and they have accepted them with WJC passion. The team has always had toughness, but to BE a stout and hard team is a different mindset completely and you have to earn that reputation. 5games in and you have to be impressed with how these guys have accepted their rolls and are all playing to the “we dictate play” part of their personalities.

You can see Travis Green’s personality imprint on this team already. He’s kinda cocky, he believes the puck is his as much as McDavid does, he’s on the lookout for places to compete and the team plays like that already.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Thought it would be interesting to compare our starts up to this point for the last 3 years.

Caveat: this is a really small sample size but I think it's important to look at anyway because we've talked about slow starts derailing seasons.

Season	W-L	GF	GA	GD	PP	PK	SF/G	SA/G	FO%
22-23	3-2-0	21	16	+5	25	72.2	34.2	29.6	56.1
23-24	3-2-0	21	15	+6	22.7	76.2	33	26.8	54.4
24-25	3-2-0	18	19	-1	38.1	75	31.2	29.6	48.5

If I look at this objectively, these are NOT good numbers to start this season.

 

[Micklebot]

Thought it would be interesting to compare our starts up to this point for the last 3 years.

Caveat: this is a really small sample size but I think it's important to look at anyway because we've talked about slow starts derailing seasons.

Season	W-L	GF	GA	GD	PP	PK	SF/G	SA/G	FO%
22-23	3-2-0	21	16	+5	25	72.2	34.2	29.6	56.1
23-24	3-2-0	21	15	+6	22.7	76.2	33	26.8	54.4
24-25	3-2-0	18	19	-1	38.1	75	31.2	29.6	48.5

If I look at this objectively, these are NOT good numbers to start this season.

Objectively, we are on a 99 pts pace, despite our starting goalie being out the last three games, along with Zub and Greig. With Fla, NJD, LAK and TB 4 teams expected to be in the playoffs, it looks like a bit tougher schedule than the previous two years.

2024-25 xGA/60 @ 5v5 is 2.11, 3rd in the league
2023-24 xGA/60 was 2.64, 22nd in the league
2022-23 xGA/60 was 2.63, 17 th in the league

So, is the jump in GA systemic and likely to continue? Underlying numbers suggest no. On the flip side, the xGF are also lower than prior years, might be something to keep an eye on as the PP won't continue scoring one 38% of attempts.

The reality is for all the story lines about our slow starts needing to improve, we never actually got off to a slow start in the first 5, as you've shown. Our issue is flaming out immediately after that.

 

[senswon]

I guess Chychrun should have stayed after all

Never felt like he gelled with the team. No doubt we need some depth though just don't think he's the guy

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

Never felt like he gelled with the team. No doubt we need some depth though just don't think he's the guy

I meant with Arizona, he was offered an out because they were rebuilding, but now they are Utah and are humming

 

[JD1]

Objectively, we are on a 99 pts pace, despite our starting goalie being out the last three games, along with Zub and Greig. With Fla, NJD, LAK and TB 4 teams expected to be in the playoffs, it looks like a bit tougher schedule than the previous two years.

2024-25 xGA/60 @ 5v5 is 2.11, 3rd in the league
2023-24 xGA/60 was 2.64, 22nd in the league
2022-23 xGA/60 was 2.63, 17 th in the league

So, is the jump in GA systemic and likely to continue? Underlying numbers suggest no. On the flip side, the xGF are also lower than prior years, might be something to keep an eye on as the PP won't continue scoring one 38% of attempts.

The reality is for all the story lines about our slow starts needing to improve, we never actually got off to a slow start in the first 5, as you've shown. Our issue is flaming out immediately after that.

5 games is a really small sample size to base anything on, doubly so because the opposition can be really different. 20 games is a better barometer. In our case, I think our first 20 is the toughest 20 game segment

I like the x/GA stat. Probably some confirmation bias built in there but we're not giving up a lot.

The 5 on 5 scoring needs to improve but sub 5% shooting won't stay that way.

We are in pretty good shape

Our Stars are scoring
Norris looks way better than at any point last year
Sanderson looks like he wants to enter the Norris discussion
Kleven is making guys pay to come down that right side wall
And Ullmark has looked great..

The only real weak point has been back up goaltending. We need Ullmark to be healthy and fortunately back up goaltending isn't the hardest thing to find

 

[lang006]

It will be nice if this is a team that can get rolling on extended road trips and actually pick up points. Not going to win them all obviously, but coming back with 0 or 1 point after 4-5 game western swing seemed to have been a pattern in the past few season. I'd love for them to break out of that trend.

 

[Micklebot]

5 games is a really small sample size to base anything on, doubly so because the opposition can be really different. 20 games is a better barometer. In our case, I think our first 20 is the toughest 20 game segment

I like the x/GA stat. Probably some confirmation bias built in there but we're not giving up a lot.

The 5 on 5 scoring needs to improve but sub 5% shooting won't stay that way.

We are in pretty good shape

Our Stars are scoring
Norris looks way better than at any point last year
Sanderson looks like he wants to enter the Norris discussion
Kleven is making guys pay to come down that right side wall
And Ullmark has looked great..

The only real weak point has been back up goaltending. We need Ullmark to be healthy and fortunately back up goaltending isn't the hardest thing to find

What stands out to me is that our defensive play didn't crumble the moment that Zub got hurt.

In 2022-23, Zub got hurt early on in game 7 and our xGA/60 was 3.24/60 for the next 9 games he missed.
in 2023-24 Zub got hurt in game 4 and in the next 7 games our xGA/60 was 3.5

So far (very small sample warning), we look more resilient to injuries to key players. That's a big positive.

 

[Dionysus]

Will see what happens when they get on winning streak, or a losing streak.

Last couple seasons, when they started to win they got lazy and quickly went away from playing detailed and hard. Started playing pond hockey again.

When they started losing, it took them way to long to find their game again. Extended their losing streaks to 4, 5, 6 games consistently. A few of those and the hole is just too much to come back from.

 

[Tuna99]

5 games is a really small sample size to base anything on, doubly so because the opposition can be really different. 20 games is a better barometer. In our case, I think our first 20 is the toughest 20 game segment

I like the x/GA stat. Probably some confirmation bias built in there but we're not giving up a lot.

The 5 on 5 scoring needs to improve but sub 5% shooting won't stay that way.

We are in pretty good shape

Our Stars are scoring
Norris looks way better than at any point last year
Sanderson looks like he wants to enter the Norris discussion
Kleven is making guys pay to come down that right side wall
And Ullmark has looked great..

The only real weak point has been back up goaltending. We need Ullmark to be healthy and fortunately back up goaltending isn't the hardest thing to find

Biggest improvement to me this season and why all the D have looked so good, when any defenceman looks up to make a pas there’s a Sen open and their stick is ready for a pass. JBD makes the game look simple because it is simple for the D right now. Props to the coaches

 

[BondraTime]

They are doing incredibly well for a team that has seen 14 goals against on 90 shots with thier 2nd/3rd goalie in net, many of which were "what the f*** was that" kind of goals that take the wind out of the sails that we have become used to the past few years.

You can very safely turn that .844% to .911% with Ullmark, that's 6 less goals against in only 3 games, extremely significant.

 

[JD1]

What stands out to me is that our defensive play didn't crumble the moment that Zub got hurt.

In 2022-23, Zub got hurt early on in game 7 and our xGA/60 was 3.24/60 for the next 9 games he missed.
in 2023-24 Zub got hurt in game 4 and in the next 7 games our xGA/60 was 3.5

So far (very small sample warning), we look more resilient to injuries to key players. That's a big positive.

so look at why the defensive play didn't crumble

Hamonic played hurt last. As much as people here crap on him, he' still able to give you some minutes if he is healthy. I said two weeks back at the start of the season, if Hamonic's play has resulted in JBD sitting, we are in good shape. Why? Because I think JBD is a capable NHL D man. He's not a 22 minute a night regular NHL D man, but he is a 16 minute a night guy that can be used in a pinch playing higher minutes. So the 7th guy is an actual NHL capable guy

So what we actually have is 3 legitimate NHL D men on the right side and one of them is playing maybe a bit more minutes and a bit tougher minutes partnered with Sanderson who anchors the pair.

Contrast that with the past 6 years....Zub goes down and regardless of who played really, it is a guy hoping to stick in the NHL.

We might crumble if it is a left side guy unless we are fully healthy on the right side and one of them can play left.

 

[JackieDaytona]

Team seems more calm and resilient more often (small sample but it stands) than in previous seasons. Not sure if that’s coaching, younger players getting a bit older and more professional, or some of the steady vets brought in.
In any case, I like what grumpy green has to say in post game win or lose much more than ‘dj bounces’ ever had to say. (*sniff*)

 

[DueDiligence]

Thought it would be interesting to compare our starts up to this point for the last 3 years.

Caveat: this is a really small sample size but I think it's important to look at anyway because we've talked about slow starts derailing seasons.

Season	W-L	GF	GA	GD	PP	PK	SF/G	SA/G	FO%
22-23	3-2-0	21	16	+5	25	72.2	34.2	29.6	56.1
23-24	3-2-0	21	15	+6	22.7	76.2	33	26.8	54.4
24-25	3-2-0	18	19	-1	38.1	75	31.2	29.6	48.5

If I look at this objectively, these are NOT good numbers to start this season.

Totally meaningless unless you factor in opponents plus other variables.
I'm very pleased with their record considering Ullmark has only played 2 games and the quality of their competition.

 

[Micklebot]

so look at why the defensive play didn't crumble

Hamonic played hurt last. As much as people here crap on him, he' still able to give you some minutes if he is healthy. I said two weeks back at the start of the season, if Hamonic's play has resulted in JBD sitting, we are in good shape. Why? Because I think JBD is a capable NHL D man. He's not a 22 minute a night regular NHL D man, but he is a 16 minute a night guy that can be used in a pinch playing higher minutes. So the 7th guy is an actual NHL capable guy

So what we actually have is 3 legitimate NHL D men on the right side and one of them is playing maybe a bit more minutes and a bit tougher minutes partnered with Sanderson who anchors the pair.

Contrast that with the past 6 years....Zub goes down and regardless of who played really, it is a guy hoping to stick in the NHL.

We might crumble if it is a left side guy unless we are fully healthy on the right side and one of them can play left.

I think Jensen has had a big impact too, Sanderson can carry most guys and look passable, having the depth to still have Jensen putting out fires means we still have two top 4 caliber pairings.

 

[Micklebot]

Totally meaningless unless you factor in opponents plus other variables.
I'm very pleased with their record considering Ullmark has only played 2 games and the quality of their competition.

Right,

10th in SF
13th in SA
2nd in PP%
20th in PK% (could be better)
8th in GF/GP
26th in GA/GP (the only objectively bad one)
20th in FO% (could be better)
19th in goal differential, (could be better)

 

[BankStreetParade]

Totally meaningless unless you factor in opponents plus other variables.
I'm very pleased with their record considering Ullmark has only played 2 games and the quality of their competition.

Sure thing, thanks for your input lol.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Objectively, we are on a 99 pts pace,

Which is the same pace we had the 2 years before that, up to this point in the season.

despite our starting goalie being out the last three games, along with Zub and Greig. With Fla, NJD, LAK and TB 4 teams expected to be in the playoffs, it looks like a bit tougher schedule than the previous two years.

You start adding these things for one year but not the others. Last year, no Norris or Pinto to start the year. No Ullmark in nets. In 23-24, all 5 teams we started the year against finished with more points, 3 of them made the playoffs and the other 2 were on the cusp.

2024-25 xGA/60 @ 5v5 is 2.11, 3rd in the league
2023-24 xGA/60 was 2.64, 22nd in the league
2022-23 xGA/60 was 2.63, 17 th in the league

xG and xGA ratios don't make sense over 5 game samples. It's much easier and more concrete to look at what actually happened, aka actual goals for/goals against.

So, is the jump in GA systemic and likely to continue? Underlying numbers suggest no. On the flip side, the xGF are also lower than prior years, might be something to keep an eye on as the PP won't continue scoring one 38% of attempts.

The reality is for all the story lines about our slow starts needing to improve, we never actually got off to a slow start in the first 5, as you've shown. Our issue is flaming out immediately after that.

These basic stats point to a likelier scenario of regression this season than those previous years. Like my caveat points out, this is an incredibly small sample size.

 

[Korpse]

he reality is for all the story lines about our slow starts needing to improve, we never actually got off to a slow start in the first 5, as you've shown. Our issue is flaming out immediately after that.

I think for me the biggest indication of growth from this group will be their road play, it's been a struggle. 15 road wins in 22/23 and 16 road wins in 23/24. The other part would be limiting losing streaks. They had a 7, 6 and 5 game losing streaks last year and 7,5, and 4 the year prior. The lows can't be as low as they have been, have to find ways to dig themselves out of losing streaks.

They started 4-2-0 in 22/23 only to lose the next 7 games. They dug themselves out of that hole only to go on a 5 game losing streak in the middle of march and then a 4 game losing streak at the start of april.

Last year they were around .500 for a bit, go out west and it's a 6 game slide. Do well in the next four games at home but go out west again and it's a 5 game losing streak. Bad stretches are going to happen but they've got to be shorter.

 

[Micklebot]

Which is the same pace we had the 2 years before that, up to this point in the season.

Yes. Do you think that was a bad start those years? Because, again, objectively, it was not.

You start adding these things for one year but not the others. Last year, no Norris or Pinto to start the year. No Ullmark in nets. In 23-24, all 5 teams we started the year against finished with more points, 3 of them made the playoffs and the other 2 were on the cusp.

Sure, Norris missed a couple games and Pinto was out. Pinto vs Greig, both guys in their second year. Norris missed 2 or three of hte games. Ullmark wasn't on the team so I don't know why you would mention that? That context is for sure important. But you included no context, which was the point.

xG and xGA ratios don't make sense over 5 game samples. It's much easier and more concrete to look at what actually happened, aka actual goals for/goals against.

Lol, but goals do? You realize the reason stats like xGF were developed is because they are more indicative of future results in small samples, right?

These basic stats point to a likelier scenario of regression this season than those previous years. Like my caveat points out, this is an incredibly small sample size.

No, they don't, they point to Forsberg and Sogaard being subpar, we're 10th in SF, 13th in SA, underlying numbers all point to a solid start. Anybody with eyes can see how the team is playing too. What happened in 2022-23 and 2023-24 is we fell off the wagon when Zub, Brannstrom and Chabot got hurt right after the 1st 5 games in 2022-23, it was Zub and Norris getting injured followed by Chabot in the 15 games that sunk the season after that 5 game start.

You've fallen into the trap of correlation equals causality, because we started the previous two seasons with the same record, and (in a very narrow look at some of the other stats) with some better stats, we are more likely to regress the way we did the last few seasons, ignoring why things fell off the rails those seasons.

Maybe we do regress, but what you provided doesn't suggest that is what is coming, especially if Ullmark gets back in net.

 

[KingAlfie11]

If we manage to secure 6 points every five-game span, we'll be on track for the playoffs. So far, I'm quite pleased with our performance in the first five games.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1848415140095385750

 

[Micklebot]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1848415140095385750

Hope everything is ok, if he was hurt, he'd probably just say it...