Management Travis Green [Head Coach]

[Big Muddy]

Thought it would be interesting to compare our starts up to this point for the last 3 years.

Caveat: this is a really small sample size but I think it's important to look at anyway because we've talked about slow starts derailing seasons.

Season	W-L	GF	GA	GD	PP	PK	SF/G	SA/G	FO%
22-23	3-2-0	21	16	+5	25	72.2	34.2	29.6	56.1
23-24	3-2-0	21	15	+6	22.7	76.2	33	26.8	54.4
24-25	3-2-0	18	19	-1	38.1	75	31.2	29.6	48.5

If I look at this objectively, these are NOT good numbers to start this season.

Objectively, we are on a 99 pts pace, despite our starting goalie being out the last three games, along with Zub and Greig. With Fla, NJD, LAK and TB 4 teams expected to be in the playoffs, it looks like a bit tougher schedule than the previous two years.

2024-25 xGA/60 @ 5v5 is 2.11, 3rd in the league
2023-24 xGA/60 was 2.64, 22nd in the league
2022-23 xGA/60 was 2.63, 17 th in the league

So, is the jump in GA systemic and likely to continue? Underlying numbers suggest no. On the flip side, the xGF are also lower than prior years, might be something to keep an eye on as the PP won't continue scoring one 38% of attempts.

The reality is for all the story lines about our slow starts needing to improve, we never actually got off to a slow start in the first 5, as you've shown. Our issue is flaming out immediately after that.

Our PP is better is a lot better this year “so far”. I don’t expect it to remain so high as the season progresses, but hopefully we’ll continue to have a strong PP that is towards the top percentile in the league.

The other thing is that the team battles back when it gets down a goal or two. Last year the team seemed to deflate when something bad happened.

We are going to get Ullmark back, so that’s a boost. On the other hand, we have a Western road trip which has been problematic in years past. It will be interesting to see where we sit after 10 games.

 

[Tuna99]

Hope everything is ok, if he was hurt, he'd probably just say it...

I think he has a baby due so probably waiting at home for that

 

[Golden_Jet]

I think he has a baby due so probably waiting at home for that

Some pregnancy complications supposedly, hope all goes well.

 

[DueDiligence]

You start adding these things for one year but not the others. Last year, no Norris or Pinto to start the year. No Ullmark in nets. In 23-24, all 5 teams we started the year against finished with more points, 3 of them made the playoffs and the other 2 were on the cusp.

Ottawa had their #1 goalie all last year. Who cares if it was Korpi.
Also in the first 5 games last year they played Philly, Tampa Detroit Carolina and Washington. And Tampa had a guy named Matt Tomkins in net. So two top teams but 1 was handicapped.
This year they have played 4 very good team out of the 5 games they have played and 3 with their backup in net.