Trades & Free Agency Thread - Still Too Soon Off-Season Edition

[Dreakmur]

The Leafs had the 5th tallest and 3rd heaviest roster to play the 2020-2021 season, based on average of all players to dress.

Yet they were softer than baby shit. It's almost as if size isn't everything....

Watch Engvall play and you forget he's 6'5".

 

[Griffin76]

Muzzin has a NTC. He is not going anywhere until July 1, 2023 (earliest).

That doesn't kick in till after the expansion draft though.

 

[Stephen]

I would work harder to move Muzzin than Rielly. That play style isn't going to age all that well. Then make a run at Hamilton.

 

[dubplatepressure]

I would work harder to move Muzzin than Rielly. That play style isn't going to age all that well. Then make a run at Hamilton.

I am of mixed feeling on this. He's also a guy that can push back physically where others do not. I agree his decline is inevitable.

As someone else said on this page, despite our size we still played butter soft. I'd think this would be a top priority to address. Starts with management mentality change from "don't retaliate, get them on the PP" to "don't get pushed around". Then, you'd have to think one of Rielly, Brodie, Holl, or Dermott are replaced with someone that can eat minutes and contribute defensively and physically (BOGO, assuming he is extended, cannot do it alone).

Up front they need to be very selective with the players they bring in this summer.

 

[Nylander88]

Really really want Barclay Goodrow

 

[rumman]

I am of mixed feeling on this. He's also a guy that can push back physically where others do not. I agree his decline is inevitable.

As someone else said on this page, despite our size we still played butter soft. I'd think this would be a top priority to address. Starts with management mentality change from "don't retaliate, get them on the PP" to "don't get pushed around". Then, you'd have to think one of Rielly, Brodie, Holl, or Dermott are replaced with someone that can eat minutes and contribute defensively and physically (BOGO, assuming he is extended, cannot do it alone).

Up front they need to be very selective with the players they bring in this summer.

I know this won’t go over well, but I’d prefer a D core that are big, mean, and defensively accountable even at the cost of offensive output. Look at the Canadian’s D, they thrive and aside from Weber’s shot and Petry being somewhat offensive, they kill it.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Really really want Barclay Goodrow

And Blake Coleman. And Jamie Oleksiak. And Casey Cizikas.

 

[Stephen]

I am of mixed feeling on this. He's also a guy that can push back physically where others do not. I agree his decline is inevitable.

As someone else said on this page, despite our size we still played butter soft. I'd think this would be a top priority to address. Starts with management mentality change from "don't retaliate, get them on the PP" to "don't get pushed around". Then, you'd have to think one of Rielly, Brodie, Holl, or Dermott are replaced with someone that can eat minutes and contribute defensively and physically (BOGO, assuming he is extended, cannot do it alone).

Up front they need to be very selective with the players they bring in this summer.

Muzzin is absolutely what we need a lot more of, we are definitely short on his experience level and play type. But what I'm worried about is we move out Rielly to get Hamilton, and the difference at the top of their game isn't massive. Meanwhile, Muzzin keeps getting a little worse every year...

So I'm hoping we can put our Muzzin savings into a poor man's version of Hedman, at least someone who can be an offensive threat, big and rangy and cover the ice, still have Rielly, and then see if that doesn't give us a big boost on the transition game. Hamilton likely won't be your grittiest customer, but this seems like a situation where Toronto needs to spend money and recoup prospect futures rather than stand pat.

 

[dubplatepressure]

I know this won’t go over well, but I’d prefer a D core that are big, mean, and defensively accountable even at the cost of offensive output. Look at the Canadian’s D, they thrive and aside from Weber’s shot and Petry being somewhat offensive, they kill it.

Goes over like a smooth, smokey single malt with me. It's a combination of defensive ability + grit + team culture. Scoring goals is of less relevance. The "score your way out of trouble" has not yet worked here.

 

[A1LeafNation]

I would work harder to move Muzzin than Rielly. That play style isn't going to age all that well. Then make a run at Hamilton.

I'm a big Rielly fan, but like he can't PK, not great 5 on 5 and can't shoot on the PP, Muzzin and Sandin look better on PP than him...

Why not come back with the following and bring in a Hamilton or Jones to replace one of the RD.

Muzzin Holl
Sandin Brodie
Dermott Bogosian
Hutton Liljegren

 

[dubplatepressure]

Muzzin is absolutely what we need a lot more of, we are definitely short on his experience level and play type. But what I'm worried about is we move out Rielly to get Hamilton, and the difference at the top of their game isn't massive. Meanwhile, Muzzin keeps getting a little worse every year...

I am not 100% sold on Hamilton, but if the idea is sign Hamilton and trade Rielly to the highest bidder of picks and prospects I am not totally opposed to that given how many UFAs we have allowed to walk recently, and how much we spent at the last TDL.

 

[hamzarocks]

And Blake Coleman. And Jamie Oleksiak. And Casey Cizikas.

A lot of those moves just feel like we are trying to emulate other teams choices to build our roster.

Tampa had Coleman and Goodrow at less than 3M combined if I'm not mistaken for 2 playoff runs.

If we get them we are looking at 4.5 for Coleman and maybe 2 for Goodrow, going up to 6.5M for two guys who are a bit older, more worn down due to back to back lengthy playoffs and would be facing high expectations to perform constantly in Toronto

Cizikas is of a similar boat, as he's been a 3C type player playing on the 4th line for the isles. He will get 3-3.5M as a UFA and is entering the stage where a lot of players' games (especially physical grinding types) fall of heavily.

I hope we can trade for guys who we think can be the next coleman/goodrow/cizikas and insulate them in the 3rd and 4th line.

Move out 2 of Kerfoot, Engvall, Mikheyev,

have Spezza + Perry be the vets on the 4th line, find 2 players at least in the 23-26 age group who haven't broke out but play a style like the UFA targets mentioned above. We can have them be the heavy lifters on the 4th line with Spezza + Perry being the Savy veteran guys. Let one of Kerfoot/Mik/Engvall stick in the bottom 6 and then the final spot let the winner of Anderson/Brooks/Robertson get it to serve as a skilled player on the 3rd line.

 

[Stephen]

I'm a big Rielly fan, but like he can't PK, not great 5 on 5 and can't shoot on the PP, Muzzin and Sandin look better on PP than him...

Why not come back with the following and bring in a Hamilton or Jones to replace one of the RD.

Muzzin Holl
Sandin Brodie
Dermott Bogosian
Hutton Liljegren

Yep, absolutely fine with pursuing Hamilton, and Jones...

Rielly was rough in the regular season but was good in the playoffs, so I'm wondering if maybe the Leafs just messed with him a little too much with unnecessary Keefe coaching.

I have high hopes for Sandin, but I don't like his lack of mobility right now. A guy can't QB with confidence if he can't win a foot race when forced into an error. Leaning on him could be a problem if thrust into too big a role too soon.

 

[Stephen]

I am not 100% sold on Hamilton, but if the idea is sign Hamilton and trade Rielly to the highest bidder of picks and prospects I am not totally opposed to that given how many UFAs we have allowed to walk recently, and how much we spent at the last TDL.

Me neither. I'm not sold on Hamilton 100% but I think the blueline needs a bigger retool. I would do the scenario you are suggesting but just with Muzzin going out for the futures package.

 

[Stephen]

A lot of those moves just feel like we are trying to emulate other teams choices to build our roster.

Tampa had Coleman and Goodrow at less than 3M combined if I'm not mistaken for 2 playoff runs.

If we get them we are looking at 4.5 for Coleman and maybe 2 for Goodrow, going up to 6.5M for two guys who are a bit older, more worn down due to back to back lengthy playoffs and would be facing high expectations to perform constantly in Toronto

Cizikas is of a similar boat, as he's been a 3C type player playing on the 4th line for the isles. He will get 3-3.5M as a UFA and is entering the stage where a lot of players' games (especially physical grinding types) fall of heavily.

I hope we can trade for guys who we think can be the next coleman/goodrow/cizikas and insulate them in the 3rd and 4th line.

Move out 2 of Kerfoot, Engvall, Mikheyev,

have Spezza + Perry be the vets on the 4th line, find 2 players at least in the 23-26 age group who haven't broke out but play a style like the UFA targets mentioned above. We can have them be the heavy lifters on the 4th line with Spezza + Perry being the Savy veteran guys. Let one of Kerfoot/Mik/Engvall stick in the bottom 6 and then the final spot let the winner of Anderson/Brooks/Robertson get it to serve as a skilled player on the 3rd line.

We have to get pro scouting to do some work, and that means identifying the next Blake Coleman and not the one who is going to get a Hyman style raise. I don't know his game too well, but that would mean someone like Alex Formenton early in their pro career or a Tyler Bertuzzi who is stuck in a rebuild program. And the Cizikas you're looking for would have to be something like Cedric Paquette. You have to get the value guys who haven't blown up yet. Bill Zito did a great job of that in Florida this past year.

 

[hamzarocks]

We have to get pro scouting to do some work, and that means identifying the next Blake Coleman and not the one who is going to get a Hyman style raise. I don't know his game too well, but that would mean someone like Alex Formenton early in their pro career or a Tyler Bertuzzi who is stuck in a rebuild program. And the Cizikas you're looking for would have to be something like Cedric Paquette. You have to get the value guys who haven't blown up yet. Bill Zito did a great job of that in Florida this past year.

You are correct, leafs need to identify and bring undervalued talent onto the team. Overpaying in UFA is the easiest way to end this team's chances of winning next year.

Formenton is a good name and a player with a solid toolset and has size (though he's listed pretty underweight don't know if that's still the case).

I would look at if the Sens would be willing to make a move with us. I think next year the time to make a decision on Timothy Lilijgren has come. He needs to either be on our 2nd pairing with Muzzin or he needs to be moved in a deal like this where we get back a forward who can play on the 2nd or 3rd line next year. We have to either let Holl move on and put Lilijgren there, or we move Lilijgren.

Formenton for Lilijgren straight is the deal I offer the sens if we decide to keep Holl next year.

I also look at the Preds Yakov Trenin as a guy who can be our 3C next year if we move Kerfoot. He is a dude who is young (24 years of age), has been underutilized (career avg of 11 minutes), plays very heavily in the defensive zone (75% of his starts come there), got little to no PP time, is cheap as they come with next being his final ELC year making 725k. He plays a physical game with 140 hits in 66 career games (174 in a 82 game season).

I think he could be a 30+ point physical 3C for the leafs who would use his size to help the 3rd line be a true shutdown line. He also chipped in 2 goals in 6 games for the Preds in the playoffs vs the Canes

Think a prospect like Niemela or Kokkonen would be enticing for the press who probably want defensive prospects who are likely to make the NHL in 2 years with Ellis and Josi being older and Ekholm potentially walking as a UFA

 

[Brown Dog]

Totally agree with the idea of identifying and acquiring undervalued depth players from other organizations to fill out the roster. Focus should be on guys with good speed and a high motor who add an element we are lacking (call it grit or physicality or hunger, whatever).

Paying for the name-brand version of these types as they enter their 30s is bad policy.

 

[Dreakmur]

You are correct, leafs need to identify and bring undervalued talent onto the team. Overpaying in UFA is the easiest way to end this team's chances of winning next year.

Thinking they can identify guys that nobody else knows about has proven to be something this management group isn’t capable of.

I also look at the Preds Yakov Trenin as a guy who can be our 3C next year if we move Kerfoot. He is a dude who is young (24 years of age), has been underutilized (career avg of 11 minutes), plays very heavily in the defensive zone (75% of his starts come there), got little to no PP time, is cheap as they come with next being his final ELC year making 725k. He plays a physical game with 140 hits in 66 career games (174 in a 82 game season).

I think he could be a 30+ point physical 3C for the leafs who would use his size to help the 3rd line be a true shutdown line. He also chipped in 2 goals in 6 games for the Preds in the playoffs vs the Canes

I’m not sure the solution to our third line is taking somebody else’s 4th line winger and trying to convert them into a centre.

 

[Dreakmur]

We have to get pro scouting to do some work, and that means identifying the next Blake Coleman and not the one who is going to get a Hyman style raise. I don't know his game too well, but that would mean someone like Alex Formenton early in their pro career or a Tyler Bertuzzi who is stuck in a rebuild program. And the Cizikas you're looking for would have to be something like Cedric Paquette. You have to get the value guys who haven't blown up yet. Bill Zito did a great job of that in Florida this past year.

Or you can draft and develop a wide variety of different players.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Marner + Holl
For
Connor + Perfetti

 

[jaric1862]

The Leafs should really try and sign guy beyond just one year this year. I don't think massive roster turnover every year is good for the team.

 

[meefer]

For those pining for a Jones or Hamilton to replace Rielly, please consider the following (I'm plagiarizing myself). Over the past 5 years Morgan Rielly is...

*42nd in games played for a defenseman.
*35th in TOI for a defenseman at 22:47
*29th in goals for a defenseman with 40
*Tied for 11th in assists for a defenseman with 173
*14th overall in total points for a defenseman
*16th overall for points/60 all situations, 12th in points/60 even strength
*62nd in PP time/G with 2:09, 20th overall in PPP/60

*Tied for 60th games played for a defenseman in playoffs.
*24th in TOI at 25:09
*Tied for 24th in goals (with many who have played less games)
*26th in assists
*24th overall in total points (only Seth Jones has more points in less games, 1 less game, 1 more point)
*16th overall for points/60 all situations, 26th in points/60 even strength (moves to 19th overall if you exclude players who have played fewer games in the playoffs)
*50th in PP time/G with 2:18, 18th overall in PPP/60 (moves to 11th overall if you exclude players who have played fewer games in the playoffs)

The two most commonly sited replacements for Rielly are (by my rough estimate of comments on these pages) Dougie Hamilton and Seth Jones. If we simply look at playoff numbers.

Player	Born	Games Played	Goals	Assists	Points	TOI	P/60 All Situations
Hamilton	93	34	6	9	15	22:37	1.170
Rielly	94	32	4	15	19	25:09	1.416
Jones	94	31	5	15	20	29:52	1.295

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Given that they play on different teams, which have differing styles of play, and rely on these players in different ways, I still don't think it hard to see these players as being quite comparable. Jones hits more (73) than Rielly or Hamilton (46 and 54 respectively). Hamilton leads in shots, followed by Jones - who has the highest shooting percentage at 6.5%, while Morgan trails at 4.7% and stakes the middle ground of shots taken - with PPP/60 seeing Jones in the lead with 4.956, followed by Rielly with 4.891 and Hamilton at 3.789.

Hamilton is an UFA. Jones and Rielly both have 1 yr left, Jones costing today 400K more and wanting out. Each is a gifted O player, each has warts when it comes to D, all three teams that employ these players relies on them heavily. They are going to get paid.

If Leaf fans wish to get a Hamilton or a Jones, I can accept that. But, I cannot see a huge difference in the contracts that any of these players receive were they to be signed by Dubas. The only wrinkle to this statement might be Rielly's tenure here and his willingness to accept a discount...what that might be I have no idea.

If there are other defensemen that can be acquired that will provide the same type of usage at less cost, please, I'd love to know about them. I suspect the cost to acquire them would be high (players and picks). I cannot see a way around the Cap issues unless we are willing to see a drop in the quality of our #1 defenseman. Tied for 50th overall at 5M/yr, Rielly has been one of the better values for a defensemen in the league. Even at 6.5M/year, which would see him tied at 22nd in salary, I like the value.

I am not attempting to single out Morgan Rielly as being an indispensable part of the team. The Leafs (Dubas, for those who demand a name be attached) got screwed by Covid. It happened. I liked this team as constructed, but for whatever reason(s) they have failed. I do not see things improving under the current structure of salaries paid. One of Marner or Matthews, or both, needs to be moved. I will be very curious to see if the team determines the same.

 

[Nylander88]

The Leafs should really try and sign guy beyond just one year this year. I don't think massive roster turnover every year is good for the team.

Would like to see Galchenyuk back at multiple years. I think he worked really hard, definitely has middle six talent, and if in the top 6 could definitely bust loose for 20+ goals. Give him a few years so you don't have to give him a raise or let him walk the following year. He's been bounced around so much lately than he might want to lock into a place for 2-3 years, even if it is only at 1-1.5mil per

 

[rumman]

Or you can draft and develop a wide variety of different players.

For this to work you’d need draft picks.

 

[dubplatepressure]

For this to work you’d need draft picks.

Right? Or you need to sell your UFAs. It's tough but they are walking anyway.